pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 15:54:34 GMT
Jacob Rees-Mogg admits photo Voter ID was intended to gerrymander elections to CON advantage, and that it had backfired. He also acknowledges that there was no problem with the previous system in the first place. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65599380'Mr Rees-Mogg said the change had "upset a system that worked perfectly well."'
"Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding that their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections."'I wonder if those posters on here who assured us the change was nothing to do with gerrymandering are having an epiphany? Remember that JR-M was in the cabinet at the time this was brought forward, so he would know. |
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Post by johntel on May 15, 2023 15:55:57 GMT
Good post Alec. This bit is particularly pertinent - I agree with every word. Many of us, myself included, will criticise the excesses of our societal and economic set-up, and how it caters for the powerful at the expense of the rest of society. However many of those same people don't acknowledge the EU for what it was - a globalist, neo-Liberal, status-quo supporting club. To be clear, for the first time in my voting age life, I didn't vote. I saw both campaigns as two ends of the same Tory shit-stick. Who led the competing campaigns merely confirms that. Of course people want to change that. I want that to change, I just didn't see that being achieved by an 'out'. Or by a remain vote for that matter. If people believe that Cameron and Osbourne had the interests of people other than their ilk and class at heart, then there's not much I can do about that. , I completely agree with the point you are making. Politicians, such as Johnson, used Brexit very much as a wedge issue purposely dividing the country. I have always been more in the 'both sides actually have a point' camp, and the genius of the Brexit campaign was actually to make it as a protest vote against austerity/Cameron/the establishment and wrongfully paint the EU as the cause of all our ills. Most people do not really understand economics, nature of trade, investment flows etc so didn't appreciate what impact leave really would have, and to be frank the remain campaign was piss poor and made some basic errors.
There are a number of posters on here, who do genuinely reflect a significant portion of the electorate, who remain very angry and emotional about Brexit. I can in many ways empathise with them. However, the basic fact is there were long running issue to do with the distribution of wealth and opportunity across the country that were not addressed, or even on the political agenda, prior to 2016, which influenced how many people voted in the ref. At the time of the referendum in 2016, when the world economy was in an expansion and growth phase, it was perfectly reasonable to make the case that the UK economy could in the future be limited within the EU and we would do better to take a more internationalist approach. However because of a catalogue of events, some maybe foreseeable, some not, including the US not wanting to do a trade deal, covid, Russia invading Ukraine and the increasing belligerence of China, the world has changed completely and it's now clear to all sane people that leaving the EU has been a disaster. I live in hope that all the parties will make clear statements of their plan to sort the mess out before the election. But I suspect that all we'll get is fudge. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 15, 2023 16:00:45 GMT
Redfield Wilton
Lib-dems 16% last week always looked like an outlier
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 16:11:00 GMT
Re the Labour initiated polling on the local elections:
"Labour Together has published research suggesting the results show the party on course for an outright majority. This conclusion is based on polling suggesting that a significant number of people who voted Lib Dem or Green in the locals would vote Labour in a general election. Here is the Labour Together summary.
Labour Together’s analysis found that:
-If replicated in a general election, Labour’s lead in the local elections would secure Labour a majority in Parliament. Labour Together asked those who voted at the locals whether they would vote differently at a general election. Accounting for this, a 9-point lead in the projected national vote share, calculated by the BBC, becomes a 13-point lead at a general election [which would be enough for an outright majority].
-The Liberal Democrat surge was largely tactical voting against the Conservatives. In the 54 councils where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had the largest number of councillors, the Lib Dems gained 214 seats while Labour gained only 69. But in the 93 councils which were Conservative-Labour contests, Labour won 335 councillors and the Lib Dems increased their tally by only 48.
-Many Liberal Democrat voters will return to Labour. 21% of Liberal Democrat voters at the local elections said that they voted for the party that was “best placed to defeat a party I disliked, even though they were not my first choice.” Nearly a quarter (23%) of the Liberal Democrats’ local election vote plans to vote Labour at the next general election. Just 44% intend to vote Lib Dem.
-Fewer than half (44%) of Green voters would vote the same way at a general election (the same proportion as the Lib Dems). The Green party drew voters from both the Conservatives and Labour, with 40% of their vote coming from 2019 Labour voters and 23% from 2019 Conservative voters. At a general election, however, the Greens would hold onto less than half of their vote, with Labour the biggest beneficiary."
IMO, the main weakness of this analysis is the low turnout in local elections, which may mean that local election voters are not representative of a GE voting population. However, past electoral history does back a 'squeeze' on third party voters in a GE context so it is certainly credible.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 15, 2023 16:13:40 GMT
Hi Dave , I completely agree with the point you are making. Politicians, such as Johnson, used Brexit very much as a wedge issue purposely dividing the country. I have always been more in the 'both sides actually have a point' camp, and the genius of the Brexit campaign was actually to make it as a protest vote against austerity/Cameron/the establishment and wrongfully paint the EU as the cause of all our ills. Most people do not really understand economics, nature of trade, investment flows etc so didn't appreciate what impact leave really would have, and to be frank the remain campaign was piss poor and made some basic errors.
There are a number of posters on here, who do genuinely reflect a significant portion of the electorate, who remain very angry and emotional about Brexit. I can in many ways empathise with them. However, the basic fact is there were long running issue to do with the distribution of wealth and opportunity across the country that were not addressed, or even on the political agenda, prior to 2016, which influenced how many people voted in the ref. Agreed, and if that is understood and accepted then it becomes pretty easy to work out that whatever percentage, large or small, of leave voters voted for Brexit not because of a dislike of foreigners but because of of the "long running issue to do with the distribution of wealth and opportunity across the country" that you mention. As you say, Johnson and co used this to purposefully divide the country. People can decide for themselves whether their assumptions, words, and actions are helping or hindering the Johnsons and JRMs of this world, in perpetuating that division. They can also work out for themselves whether such mass stigmatising of people they do not know, is a good idea or counter-productive to the cause they support. Generally speaking, I don't think that talking down to people, considering them thick, and pooh-poohing their concerns is likely to win that many people to the cause. And isn't that what people would want? |
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Post by chrisc on May 15, 2023 16:19:33 GMT
It might be fair but is uncommon in liberal democracies which generally restrict voting in national elections to its citizens. So in Canada my friend who was a politically active tax paying permanent resident for 20 years could only vote in local elections as he never changed his Uk citizenship for Canadian. In Germany, you need to be a German citizen to vote in a national election, although of course all EU citizens can vote in EU elections. I suspect this is true in most other countries although I haven’t checked them all. So Starmer’s proposal would be genuinely radical (a poke in the eye here 😏 for those who think he is too conservative) |
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Post by alec on May 15, 2023 16:30:21 GMT
Rees Mogg, and that quote about gerrymandering.
These Tories are something else, aren't they?
They're even incompetent when it comes to corruption.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 16:30:57 GMT
At the NatCon rally (the word seems appropriate) Miriam Cates MP made an admission as interesting in its own way as the one by Rees-Mogg, namely that the Conservatives have a problem with the fact that young people are more educated than previous generations. Complaining that university education exposed the young to (imaginary) 'cultural Marxism' she said too many young people- especially women - were attending and it was preventing females getting on with what she views as their primary purpose of breeding children.
This is straight out of the the US playbook, with the National Conservative statement of principles I linked to yesterday saying:
"We recognize that most universities are at this point partisan and globalist in orientation and vehemently opposed to nationalist and conservative ideas. Such institutions do not deserve taxpayer support unless they rededicate themselves to the national interest. Education policy should serve manifest national needs."
After Cates had finished her speech the conference chair called for the return of compulsory military service. So presumably all the extra babies are needed as cannon fodder.
Asked by reporters to disown Cates' weird views, Rishi Sunak's spokesperson declined to do so and alluded to the government's recent culture wars initiative on sex education in schools.
And we haven't even got to discussing Braverman's speech yet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2023 16:35:34 GMT
Jacob Rees-Mogg admits photo Voter ID was intended to gerrymander elections to CON advantage, and that it had backfired. He also acknowledges that there was no problem with the previous system in the first place. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65599380'Mr Rees-Mogg said the change had "upset a system that worked perfectly well."'
"Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding that their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections."'I wonder if those posters on here who assured us the change was nothing to do with gerrymandering are having an epiphany? Remember that JR-M was in the cabinet at the time this was brought forward, so he would know. I must admit, I found his disarmingly frank admissions a little surprising, to say the least. Perhaps more importantly, any CON spokesperson who tries to defend voter ID in the future will immediately have his debunking of the premise bowled straight back at them. |
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Post by moosepoll on May 15, 2023 16:41:57 GMT
I think a lot of Conservatives vote LD in local elections. But go home and hold their noses in a GE. The Lib Dems have won Mayoral and local elections in my constituency Watford for well over a decade. Labour has 1 seat on the council. However, the 2019 Election had Con on 26,421, Lab on 21,988, LD on 9,323. As an interesting aside Watford's MP has been in the ruling government in every election since 1979. I do not think a tactical vote is possible in Watford as its so split. I can see this happening for the Conservatives across several LD gains. So they are in with a shout as the red wall will not be enough for a majority I think.
Also, I think turnout in an election is key.
1997 71.4% - Labour Landslide
2001 59.4% - Things going well voters were not motivated to change government
2005 61.4% - Labour had such a majority whilst Iraq really cost them the required swing was too high for the Conservatives to win, but they gained a decent foothold.
2010 65.1% - An appetite for change motivated a change in government
2015 66.1% - A very good conservative manifesto and a previously hung Parliament, Con voters came out and delivered. A majority that Cameron was not expecting.
2017 68.8% - Brexit dominated and both sides of the argument came out in numbers. If the con vote had stayed at home Corbyn likely would have won, that additional 2.7% vote was vital to the outcome
2019 67.3% - Again Brexit brought out the Con vote in numbers.
Next year I expect for Labour to win a majority a lower turnout will be key. I think 65% and Labour win.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2023 16:46:43 GMT
I wonder if those posters on here who assured us the change was nothing to do with gerrymandering are having an epiphany? Remember that JR-M was in the cabinet at the time this was brought forward, so he would know. I must admit, I found his disarmingly frank admissions a little surprising, to say the least. Perhaps more importantly, any CON spokesperson who tries to defend voter ID in the future will immediately have his debunking of the premise bowled straight back at them. Perhaps he's been privy to some information that it actually ended up restricting some groups of older, assumed tory voters and not just the young and transient who were the intended target. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2023 16:52:55 GMT
At the NatCon rally (the word seems appropriate) Miriam Cates MP made an admission as interesting in its own way as the one by Rees-Mogg, namely that the Conservatives have a problem with the fact that young people are more educated than previous generations. Complaining that university education exposed the young to (imaginary) 'cultural Marxism' she said too many young people- especially women - were attending and it was preventing females getting on with what she views as their primary purpose of breeding children. This is straight out of the the US playbook, with the National Conservative statement of principles I linked to yesterday saying: "We recognize that most universities are at this point partisan and globalist in orientation and vehemently opposed to nationalist and conservative ideas. Such institutions do not deserve taxpayer support unless they rededicate themselves to the national interest. Education policy should serve manifest national needs." After Cates had finished her speech the conference chair called for the return of compulsory military service. So presumably all the extra babies are needed as cannon fodder. Asked by reporters to disown Cates' weird views, Rishi Sunak's spokesperson declined to do so and alluded to the government's recent culture wars initiative on sex education in schools. And we haven't even got to discussing Braverman's speech yet. Holy crap. I'm wondering when they are finally going to start trying to re-woo the liberal southern tories who are abandoning them in droves and represent a large part of their core vote? They took them for granted in their move to the right but now those voters have clearly had enough. It's been a long time since 'hug a hoodie..' It seems they are currently incapable though of changing their instincts to double down on far right culture war fodder. There seems to be a simplistic idea among many that they harder they push the nationalist and anti-immigrant buttons somehow magically the more support they will get. If they keep doubling down on this stuff they are totally... stuffed. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 16:55:56 GMT
I must admit, I found his disarmingly frank admissions a little surprising, to say the least. Perhaps more importantly, any CON spokesperson who tries to defend voter ID in the future will immediately have his debunking of the premise bowled straight back at them. Perhaps he's been privy to some information that it actually ended up restricting some groups of older, assumed tory voters and not just the young and transient who were the intended target. He specifically said that. |
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Post by alec on May 15, 2023 16:59:59 GMT
In Belarus, the president Lukashenka has missed several events, and there is speculation regarding his health. If he were to fall, that would leave a difficult situation for Putin, potentially.
Also, it's being reported by the Washington Post that the head of the Wagner group offered Ukraine details of troop positions of regular Russian Army units if they agreed to pull back from Bakhmut. These are unverified leaks, although now published in the US, but if true, quite remarkable.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 17:00:56 GMT
At the NatCon rally (the word seems appropriate) Miriam Cates MP made an admission as interesting in its own way as the one by Rees-Mogg, namely that the Conservatives have a problem with the fact that young people are more educated than previous generations. Complaining that university education exposed the young to (imaginary) 'cultural Marxism' she said too many young people- especially women - were attending and it was preventing females getting on with what she views as their primary purpose of breeding children. This is straight out of the the US playbook, with the National Conservative statement of principles I linked to yesterday saying: "We recognize that most universities are at this point partisan and globalist in orientation and vehemently opposed to nationalist and conservative ideas. Such institutions do not deserve taxpayer support unless they rededicate themselves to the national interest. Education policy should serve manifest national needs." After Cates had finished her speech the conference chair called for the return of compulsory military service. So presumably all the extra babies are needed as cannon fodder. Asked by reporters to disown Cates' weird views, Rishi Sunak's spokesperson declined to do so and alluded to the government's recent culture wars initiative on sex education in schools. And we haven't even got to discussing Braverman's speech yet. Holy crap. I'm wondering when they are finally going to start trying to re-woo the liberal southern tories who are abandoning them in droves and represent a large part of their core vote? They took them for granted in their move to the right but now those voters have clearly had enough. It's been a long time since 'hug a hoodie..' It seems they are currently incapable though of changing their instincts to double down on far right culture war fodder. There seems to be a simplistic idea among many that they harder they push the nationalist and anti-immigrant buttons somehow magically the more support they will get. If they keep doubling down on this stuff they are totally... stuffed. The Cameron version of Conservatism was specifically rejected at the rally, it being stated that anyone who advocates right wing economics but is socially liberal "is not a Conservative". What worries me is that Sunak doesn't seem in any hurry to disown any of this stuff. |
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Post by James E on May 15, 2023 17:03:30 GMT
I think a lot of Conservatives vote LD in local elections. But go home and hold their noses in a GE. The Lib Dems have won Mayoral and local elections in my constituency Watford for well over a decade. Labour has 1 seat on the council. However, the 2019 Election had Con on 26,421, Lab on 21,988, LD on 9,323. As an interesting aside Watford's MP has been in the ruling government in every election since 1979. I do not think a tactical vote is possible in Watford as its so split. I can see this happening for the Conservatives across several LD gains. So they are in with a shout as the red wall will not be enough for a majority I think. Also, I think turnout in an election is key. 1997 71.4% - Labour Landslide 2001 59.4% - Things going well voters were not motivated to change government 2005 61.4% - Labour had such a majority whilst Iraq really cost them the required swing was too high for the Conservatives to win, but they gained a decent foothold. 2010 65.1% - An appetite for change motivated a change in government 2015 66.1% - A very good conservative manifesto and a previously hung Parliament, Con voters came out and delivered. A majority that Cameron was not expecting. 2017 68.8% - Brexit dominated and both sides of the argument came out in numbers. If the con vote had stayed at home Corbyn likely would have won, that additional 2.7% vote was vital to the outcome 2019 67.3% - Again Brexit brought out the Con vote in numbers. Next year I expect for Labour to win a majority the turnout will be key. I don't think you can consider the 'Red Wall' in isolation from the rest of the country. Polling there, such as Redfield and Wilton's (see link below) suggest that the Con>Lab swing in those constituencies polled (all recent Con gains) is much the same as in polling of all GB (around 15%). So these seats do not need to be 'enough for a majority'. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Redfield_&_Wilton_StrategiesTurnout looks likely to be low - at least if you compare those telling pollsters they are 'certain to vote'. These are down by around 4 points compared to previous pre-election years. Not sure it will be 'key' though. The very similar results in 1997 and 2001 happened in the highest and lowest turnouts of the past 30 years. |
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Post by shevii on May 15, 2023 17:03:57 GMT
Redfield Wilton Lib-dems 16% last week always looked like an outlier The 12 (and now 14 point) Lab lead still feels a bit like outliers to me, especially as R&W tended to be on the higher end of the Lab leads, unless they have changed something in their methodology? |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on May 15, 2023 17:05:09 GMT
mercian"All the freedom of movement stuff was brought in much later without the people of this country being consulted though referenda were held elsewhere." Sorry but that's complete rubbish the treaty of Rome in 1957 introduced freedom of movement for work including self employment, this included part time work which permitted young people to take extended working holidays , while it didn't specifically include movement for retirement in effect it did it if the retirees or anyone else not working had the ability to support themselves in Spain receiving the U.K. state pension was deemed sufficient. The Maastricht treaty of 1992 extended the rights to some extent and introduced European union citizenship. I worked in Spain as a UK police officer in 1989-1990 under eec rules there was no requirement for a visa and for those who wished to take extended holidays the 90/180 day rule didn't apply in that respect leisure travel was actually easier.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on May 15, 2023 17:12:28 GMT
In the most absurd comment of the day make brexitania great again right wing xenophobe Suella Braverman" urges the Tories to avoid Trumpism, saying ‘events in US in recent years’ should be warning to conservatives.
They should be but they obviously haven't.
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Post by johntel on May 15, 2023 17:31:21 GMT
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 15, 2023 17:31:25 GMT
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Post by shevii on May 15, 2023 17:31:34 GMT
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️
@leftiestats
·
26m
🚨 NEW: Labour leads by 16pts (-3)
🔴 LAB 45% (-2)
🔵 CON 29% (+1)
🟠 LD 12% (+3)
🟣 REF 5% (-)
🟢 GRN 4% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (-)
Labour majority of 146 seats.
Via
@deltapolluk
, 12-15 May (+/- vs 5-9 May)
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 17:47:01 GMT
Those suspicious of the BBC might enjoy this. Two clips - the first what was actually said in the acceptance speech, the second as posted by the BBC:
/video/2
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Post by James E on May 15, 2023 17:51:47 GMT
Deltapoll's latest 16% Lab lead is much in line with their average for the year to date.
Opinium's recent 14% and Techne's 17% Lab-leads are each just 1 point below their 2023 averages.
The outliers are R&W, whose 14% is still 6 points below their previous 2023 average, and Omnesis, whose 27% is 5-6 points above theirs.
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domjg
Member
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2023 17:57:39 GMT
Those suspicious of the BBC might enjoy this. Two clips - the first what was actually said in the acceptance speech, the second as posted by the BBC: /video/2 If she'd said anything negative about brexit they wouldn't have shown her at all  |
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Post by hireton on May 15, 2023 18:15:54 GMT
Danny Kruger at the Nat Con conference today:
The Tory Party needs to treat the infection of nationalist evangelical Christianity very quickly.
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Post by alec on May 15, 2023 18:21:07 GMT
I hesitate to give them airtime, but here are two observations regarding the NatCon conference.
1) When an organisation like Momentum, which some view as extreme left, became prominent in Labour circles, the broadcast media were not slow to adopt a negative stance, labeling them as far left, extreme, etc.
Much of what we have seen at NatCon is far more extreme than Momentum, but the reporting is strangely fact based, analytical, mainstream. Not unexpected, but deeply alarming.
2) The Americanisation of the British Right continues apace, and this has major consequences for the UK. It is bringing extreme views into normal discourse. That the statements from some over restricting education, particularly for women, and the reprise of anti-expert rants by the Home Secretary (even while she argued against Trumpifying the Tory Party - that was genuinely funny, although I suspect the joke was unintentional) have not provoked a storm of condemnation from moderate Conservatives is telling. The party is lost, somewhere in the mid-Atlantic, reliant on lifeboats sent out by far right US billionaires.
My second observation is that this is happening, and needs to be recognised by other parts of the UK. I can't see any sign that the Conservative Party has it within itself to challenge this, and England is being led by the right increasingly towards a US style of politics, where extremism, partisanship, gerrymandering are considered normal. Historically it has been the Conservative Party itself, allied to the threat of a leftward tilt with Labour, that has held the line against extremism, but the defences are now in ruins. There is no one left to defend the right flank in British politics.
This has implications for the UK. Basically, if you can, get out. Scotland needs to wake up to the fact that this isn't going away, and the English conservative domination of British politics is getting worse, more dangerous - not better.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2023 18:24:02 GMT
Danny Kruger at the Nat Con conference today: The Tory Party needs to treat the infection of nationalist evangelical Christianity very quickly. It's bonkers as this is not America. There is no host here for this far right 'Christianity' virus to latch onto. Even actual Christians here are very different and tend to be loc in my experience at least. This will get them zero support and lots of ridicule. One thing I still admire about this country and which is not about to change is that we 'don't do God'. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 15, 2023 18:24:22 GMT
Danny Kruger at the Nat Con conference today: The Tory Party needs to treat the infection of nationalist evangelical Christianity very quickly. Just when you think they couldn't get any crazier... they do |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2023 18:26:00 GMT
Danny Kruger at the Nat Con conference today: The Tory Party needs to treat the infection of nationalist evangelical Christianity very quickly. Indeed. Miriam Cates who I referenced above is also an evangelical Christian. Kruger has stated that he does not agree "that women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy" in relation to abortion. Welcome to your slave status ladies. |
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