Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2023 20:22:04 GMT
As a 69 year-old your median life expectancy (that's the length of time exceeded by 50% of the population of 69 year-old males in England) is another 15.62 years, so you have a better than evens chance of being able to vote in another three General Elections. I'm just over 75 and I have a median life expectancy of 11.40 years so I need to be lucky to have three General Elections left, but should manage another two. My first vote was in the 1970 General Election (in those days the voting age was still 21). Except median numbers are not very helpful for a personal forecast. To get that you need to compare your own fitness to average fitness of others your age. This will give an indication of your likelihood of being above or below the average in lifespan too. Alec has persistently failed to take this into account in arguing about life years lost to covid. Given, and its a fact, people who died from covid were systematically less healthy than their peers, life years lost were also well below claims quite a lot of people have made who should know better. Between 1/4 and a half of first wave covid deaths were people in care homes with Altzheimers. Some would no doubt have considered their slightly early deaths a blessing. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2023 20:37:54 GMT
More reports coming in in the last couple of hours of Russian withdrawals in and around Bakhmut. Scale not yet clear. Its hard to know what to make of this. Bahkmut has likely served its purpose in the eyes of the Russians, Keeping Ukraine busy all winter. There are three ways out of this for Putin. Beat Ukraine, general acclaim at home. Hold additional occupied territory, can claim modest success and Russia will never give up. Get thrown out of Ukraine and prove Russia has nothing but enemies abroad, so Russians must stand together behind his rule. So its either win, win or win. |
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Post by alec on May 12, 2023 20:47:57 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "This lack of interest in what the state can do means that as the limitations of leaving things more and more to the market become ever more apparent, they therefore don’t have a lot of ideas for what to do instead. They wind up copying a few ideas, but little is transformative." I think you've hit the nail on the head. In so many areas (including now, dare I say it, the prevention of harm from infectious disease through solid public health) government's have been so conditioned into accepting the false narrative that government's can't control and direct and only market provision works, that only small minded surrenderism is left. This narrative of inevitability runs against all our learnt history; there was an age when we aspired to build a better world by democratic design, but now we wait for the corporations to tell us what is feasible. And, strangely, only what is profitable seems to be feasible.
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Post by alec on May 12, 2023 20:50:46 GMT
Danny - I think you're penchant for conspiracy theories sometimes gets the better of you. Russia wasn't shaping the agenda in Bakhmut. Shorn of so much force, they had no option but to concentrate on one narrow point to push for progress. Ukraine saw them coming, and they, not the Russians, were the once deriving purpose and value from the fighting for Bakhmut.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 12, 2023 20:59:14 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "This lack of interest in what the state can do means that as the limitations of leaving things more and more to the market become ever more apparent, they therefore don’t have a lot of ideas for what to do instead. They wind up copying a few ideas, but little is transformative." I think you've hit the nail on the head. In so many areas (including now, dare I say it, the prevention of harm from infectious disease through solid public health) government's have been so conditioned into accepting the false narrative that government's can't control and direct and only market provision works, that only small minded surrenderism is left. This narrative of inevitability runs against all our learnt history; there was an age when we aspired to build a better world by democratic design, but now we wait for the corporations to tell us what is feasible. And, strangely, only what is profitable seems to be feasible. You recently did a post I meant to reply to, about pharma pushing an anti-dementia drug. I started a reply (but didn’t get to finish) talking about another example, in which pharma did a lot of the research concerning depression meds, and doctors of course went by the research, resulting in potentially rather more prescriptions than might be necessary, surprise surprise… |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 12, 2023 21:21:10 GMT
More reports coming in in the last couple of hours of Russian withdrawals in and around Bakhmut. Scale not yet clear. Its hard to know what to make of this. Bahkmut has likely served its purpose in the eyes of the Russians, Keeping Ukraine busy all winter. There are three ways out of this for Putin. Beat Ukraine, general acclaim at home. Hold additional occupied territory, can claim modest success and Russia will never give up. Get thrown out of Ukraine and prove Russia has nothing but enemies abroad, so Russians must stand together behind his rule. So its either win, win or win. Mmm I think you may be in for a surprise. Russian leaders don't normally 'continue in post' following obvious military defeat. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 21:22:40 GMT
When do we expect crossover... Oh, I still think it will be a while before the Lib Dems move above the Conservatives. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 21:30:04 GMT
More reports coming in in the last couple of hours of Russian withdrawals in and around Bakhmut. Scale not yet clear. These seem to be local counter-attacks only by Ukraine and yet when you consider that official US sources suggest that the Russians may have suffered 20,000 dead and 80,000 wounded in trying and failing to capture Bakhmut, it really is an extraordinary failure on the Russian side. |
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Post by mercian on May 12, 2023 21:41:57 GMT
Fascinating - www.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/12/call-for-psychosis-treatment-overhaul-after-evidence-of-autoimmune-triggerDiscovering a connection between psychosis and autoimmune responses isn't too much of a surprise to those of us paying attention to the findings of covid research, where links have been observed between the development particularly of anxiety, along with a range of other psychotic mental conditions post covid infection. Indeed, this case study just out involves the case of sexually deviant behaviour after neurological symptoms brought on by covid infection - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/npr2.12343I suspect we'll see a hefty rise in a variety of mental health conditions in the years ahead, as indeed is already happening, and in due course, research like this will enable us to understand the causal pathways between viral infection, autoimmune response and mental health breakdowns. Basically people just need to imagine they're a pair of curtains and pull themselves together 😁 |
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Post by mercian on May 12, 2023 21:51:20 GMT
I was mooching about on 538 looking at the current US polling and discovered this item - polling on the individual popularity of members of our royal family among Americans and Brits. I suspect our properly subservient broadcasters and press don't encourage we plebs to see this sort of thing, but our ex-colonies hare always been rebellious of course!  Anyway, it seems the King and Queen are not personally very popular - ranking only above Andrew (a very low bar) in the US and Andrew, Meghan and Harry in the UK. fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-excited-for-the-coronation-of-king-charles/ As the no-one has any say over who is our monarch who cares? I was surprised to see the popularity of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex over there though. Perhaps it's just because they're seen as anti-Royal? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 21:56:32 GMT
I was mooching about on 538 looking at the current US polling and discovered this item - polling on the individual popularity of members of our royal family among Americans and Brits. I suspect our properly subservient broadcasters and press don't encourage we plebs to see this sort of thing, but our ex-colonies hare always been rebellious of course! Anyway, it seems the King and Queen are not personally very popular - ranking only above Andrew (a very low bar) in the US and Andrew, Meghan and Harry in the UK. fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-excited-for-the-coronation-of-king-charles/ As the no-one has any say over who is our monarch who cares? I was surprised to see the popularity of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex over there though. Perhaps it's just because they're seen as anti-Royal? I think they are seen as American! |
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Post by mercian on May 12, 2023 21:58:06 GMT
P.s. on the plus side, although the move left is slow going, at least they renationalised the Transpennine Express, or “Distress” as I like to call it. I understand that the problems with Transpennine Express was to do with shortage of train drivers. Where are the government going to magic them up from? |
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Post by mercian on May 12, 2023 22:00:20 GMT
graham"There is also a spiritual dimension to my perspective in that I do not share the physical materialist views of those who believe that 'This is it!'. Increasingly I find myself more focussed on 'the next world' rather than the physical world in which I currently live." At least if you turn out to be wrong about that you won't be around to be disappointed.
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jib
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Post by jib on May 12, 2023 22:06:52 GMT
Danny - I think you're penchant for conspiracy theories sometimes gets the better of you. Russia wasn't shaping the agenda in Bakhmut. Shorn of so much force, they had no option but to concentrate on one narrow point to push for progress. Ukraine saw them coming, and they, not the Ruwssians, were the once deriving purpose and value from the fighting for Bakhmut. Indeed. The Russians have thrown away so many of their young men into the "Meat Grinder". Grim. General Patten and Churchill were right about the Russians, and it's a shame the world was too weary to fight Communist Gangster regimes after 1945. But hey,you can't rewrite the past. |
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Post by mercian on May 12, 2023 22:10:23 GMT
Danny - I think you're penchant for conspiracy theories sometimes gets the better of you. Russia wasn't shaping the agenda in Bakhmut. Shorn of so much force, they had no option but to concentrate on one narrow point to push for progress. Ukraine saw them coming, and they, not the Russians, were the once deriving purpose and value from the fighting for Bakhmut. Indeed. The Russians have thrown away so many of their young men into the "Meat Grinder". Grim. General Patten and Churchill were right about the Russians, and it's a shame the world as too weary to fight Communist Gangster regimes after 1945. There were quite a few proxy wars - Vietnam, several in Africa and the Middle East. Russians got nukes soon after WWII thanks partly to British traitors and people were quite rightly terrified of nuclear war. Or are you saying that we should have driven through Germany into USSR immediately as Churchill wanted? |
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jib
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Post by jib on May 12, 2023 22:12:00 GMT
Indeed. The Russians have thrown away so many of their young men into the "Meat Grinder". Grim. General Patten and Churchill were right about the Russians, and it's a shame the world as too weary to fight Communist Gangster regimes after 1945. There were quite a few proxy wars - Vietnam, several in Africa and the Middle East. Russians got nukes soon after WWII thanks partly to British traitors and people were quite rightly terrified of nuclear war. Or are you saying that we should have driven through Germany into USSR immediately as Churchill wanted? Yes. Churchill probably had unfinished business from the Reds vs Whites war. |
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Post by mercian on May 12, 2023 22:36:08 GMT
jibMy dad told me that the army would have mutinied. Many, like him, had been at war for 6 years already. Also of course USSR had been our ally.
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jib
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Post by jib on May 12, 2023 22:41:24 GMT
jib My dad told me that the army would have mutinied. Many, like him, had been at war for 6 years already. Also of course USSR had been our ally. Of course, it really was a step too far.Had the public known about the treachery and infiltration by the Soviets into UK Civil Society, it may have been different. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 12, 2023 22:45:03 GMT
P.s. on the plus side, although the move left is slow going, at least they renationalised the Transpennine Express, or “Distress” as I like to call it. I understand that the problems with Transpennine Express was to do with shortage of train drivers. Where are the government going to magic them up from? Well that might be what the franchise are saying, however… …Apparently they had more cancellations than any other operator in January-February. They had more cancellations than all the other operators put together. |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 23:07:36 GMT
Just For Fun, I plugged those figures into the EC model and got a LAB majority of a trifling 450. Nobody, but nobody, in their right mind excepts GE24 to produce anything approaching that result, of course, but, coupled with the damn good kicking CON took in the English LEs last week, and the current seeming about face in Sunak/Starmer approval ratings, I suspect things are becoming a little uneasy in CCHQ. The upcoming Conservative Democratic (sic) Organisation conference this weekend might provide further discomfiture. |
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Post by eor on May 12, 2023 23:36:35 GMT
The one thing they don't seem to address about the comparison is whether LE results can be shown to be a useful predictor of GE outcomes. I had a look at the seat I'm now in, Coventry South - as Cov elects by thirds (so one candidate per party per ward each year) and there is very little significant third party/independent voting in recent years, it avoids a lot of the data issues PJW outlined earlier. It's currently a very marginal Labour seat so doesn't appear in the New Statesman table but if it did it'd show Labour ahead 47% to 33%. So far so good - a very marginal seat last time ought to be a safe hold this time if Labour are heading for power. So I compared the recent GEs here to the most recent prior LE results; 2018 LE - LAB ahead by 7.0% 2019 LE - LAB ahead by 8.2% 2019 GE - LAB win by 0.9% 2016 LE - LAB ahead by 6.5% 2017 GE - LAB win by 16.9% 2014 LE - LAB ahead by 7.8% 2015 GE - LAB win by 7.3% 2008 LE - CON ahead by 11.4% 2010 GE - LAB win by 8.4% For a predictive model that is garbage. Yes this is only one seat, and maybe it's an outlier for some reasons. And obviously you'd rather be ahead than behind, whatever the metric is. But if the New Statesman are going to argue this data shows Labour are on track, surely they need to show that it's been a good predictor in the recent past? Not my job to defend the New Statesman's approach but I'm happy to present the argument they make in the article that accompanies the table. They haven't based their conclusion on looking at votes in individual seats, then assuming the party ahead 'wins' it and saying there are enough of those for a Labour majority. Rather their case is in two stages, it seems to me: (a) they ask whether the local election results support the opinion polls in suggesting that Labour are circa 15% ahead (allowing for the known differences between polls and LEs). Their conclusion is that they do ("If we look at council seats that were up for election both last year and this year, and featured Labour and Conservative candidates, we can detect a similar pattern. Of the 5,000 wards contested this year, more than 1,000 match this criteria. In 2022 the average Tory vote share in these wards was 31 per cent; this year it was 27 per cent. Labour, meanwhile, saw its average vote increase from 39 per cent last year to 41 per cent this year. That makes Labour’s rise two points smaller than the national polls and, conversely, the Tories’ fall one point larger. But, in truth, the difference in numbers isn’t all that significant. Broadly, the shift in comparable English wards appears to be reflecting the national polls.") That in itself would be an indicator of a healthy Labour position for the GE less than 18 months out. (b) Secondly, they argue that the electoral geography has shifted in Labour's favour since 2019. For example: "Excluding the smaller parties for a moment, Labour needs to win 123 Conservative seats to achieve a majority of one in the House of Commons (326 seats). In reality, that number is obviously smaller, because some of Labour’s target seats are held by the SNP, but stay with me a moment. That majority of one, assuming a uniform swing, would come in the shape of Bassetlaw (which would go to Labour by an ultra-thin margin). In this year’s local elections, Labour topped the polls in Bassetlaw with 51 per cent of the vote to the Conservatives’ 34 per cent." So they are not 'predicting' the Bassetlaw result as 51-34 in a GE, but saying that in a seat Labour would win by a tiny margin to get an OM they are comfortably ahead. The NS construe this as a breaking of the Brexit coalition Johnson assembled in 2019. Given there is also polling evidence for this, it seems a reasonable proposition. They also say that Uniform Swing will not apply, and is likely to be a very poor estimation of the final result - I think most on here would agree with that. The NS say: "I wonder if the absence of a uniform swing may have coloured analyses and seat projections based on partial results. We are seeing bigger swings in safe seats than in more marginal ones. In one sense, we can read this as Labour’s vote – or rather the anti-Conservative vote – being efficiently distributed. Whatever the complexity of the national swing, the situation is certainly discouraging for the Conservatives. For the party to be defeated in Medway as badly as it was in Wakefield and Hartlepool does not bode well for its hopes of a fifth election victory." Final conclusion: "When one considers all this, alongside the fact that the national average swing in comparable Con-Lab wards mirrors that which we see in national polling, I struggle to see how Labour is not on course for a majority at the general election." Thanks for the detailed response; I did actually read the article in full before responding to it, but your emphasis helps. As a validation that there isn't something systematically screwy with current Westminster polling, yes I agree. My issue was more with the second bit, that the ward detail shows the electoral geography has shifted, when my contention from looking at this seat over the last decade or so would be that ward-level LE results don't seem to tell us much at all about who the GE electorate will be. The comparable wards part I was a bit itchy on - as others have pointed out these elections are already quite skewed in terms of the areas voting and not voting, and isolating the small minority of those that elect by thirds and had a cycle last year and this year seems to be distilling that further. Tho as I said, you would rather be ahead/gaining whatever the metric is. As to their conclusion, personally I agree with it, as I've said on here previously I do think the Tories are doomed (because the votes they've lost on the right aren't going to come back from REFUK/WNV). I just don't think the ward-level numbers the NS are using are adding much useful - Cameron's Tories were ahead of Labour by 15, 20% in the locals in 2008 and 2009, the ward-level data would have shown them well ahead in a lot more seats than they needed for an OM but when the other half of the electorate came out they still turned into pumpkins just as May's Tories did a decade later. Whereas Blair's almost identical leads for Labour in the LEs in 1995 and 1996 were a decent taste of what was to come at the 1997 GE. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 12, 2023 23:37:38 GMT
Just For Fun, I plugged those figures into the EC model and got a LAB majority of a trifling 450. Nobody, but nobody, in their right mind excepts GE24 to produce anything approaching that result, of course, but, coupled with the damn good kicking CON took in the English LEs last week, and the current seeming about face in Sunak/Starmer approval ratings, I suspect things are becoming a little uneasy in CCHQ. The upcoming Conservative Democratic (sic) Organisation this weekend might provide further discomfiture.
Starmer will say: “We must understand there are precious things – in our way of life, in our environment, in our communities – that it is our responsibility to protect and preserve and to pass on to future generations. And look, if that sounds conservative, then let me tell you: I don’t care.
Somebody has got to stand up for the things that make this country great and it isn’t going to be the Tories.
That in the end is one of the great failures of the last 13 years. A Tory party that in generations past saw itself as the protector of the nation and the Union has undermined both.
They’ve taken an axe to the security of family life, trashed Britain’s reputation abroad, and totally lost touch with the ordinary hope of working people.
The Conservative Party can no longer claim to be conservative.
It conserves nothing we value – not our rivers and seas, not our NHS or BBC, not our families, not our nation.”
www.thenational.scot/news/23519506.labours-keir-starmer-dont-care-sound-conservative/
Not that there is anything innately wrong about being a British "nationalist" (any more than being any other kind) - unless it involves supporting extremist right wing policies such as the public order legislation in E&W, or the Illegal Immigration Bill - but the combination of British nationalist rhetoric and Labour's acceptance of such measures is revealing about the stance of the party that most on this board (some increasingly reluctantly) see as the best repository for people's votes. |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 23:50:13 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 12, 2023 23:57:07 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 13, 2023 5:33:23 GMT
Sounds interesting "In a briefing sent out to Labour members this week, 86 pages of proposals for debate at the forum included measures such as day one rights for workers, billions of pounds of green investment, reform of childcare, and a huge expansion of NHS staffing, as well as votes at 16" They have already said they are looking at planning reform to make House building and windfarms etc easier to build |
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Post by hireton on May 13, 2023 6:21:34 GMT
For the avoidance of doubt:
And:
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Post by moby on May 13, 2023 6:29:10 GMT
I have made myself feel quite unwell over the last 48 hours. It is entirely my own fault , and oddly enough arises from my being blessed - or cursed - with a very good memory. I shall be 69 in early July , and have calculated that my current age - 68 years and 10 months - was the normal male life expectancy in the UK in Feb/March 1974. I was then in the latter part of my first year at University and it coincided with the General Election called by Ted Heath for 28th February that year. I have just watched some 18 hours of the BBC Election Results programme. At one level I should enjoy this , but I keep being faced with the reality that - David Dimbleby excepted - every person appearing on the screen is now deceased. That applies to the politicians - the broadcasters and the journalists giving commentaries and analysis. It really has tipped me into quite a deep depression - and have had to seek Diazepam support. On the second day the declaration at Finchley was included as a 49 year old Margaret Thatcher was re-elected. It struck me that this was less than a year before she became the Tory leader in February 1975 - though there was no suggestion at all on the programme of that being a likely prospect despite some questions being raised as to Heath's long term survival as leader. I somehow just cannot accept that these events - the February 74 election and Thatcher's ascent to the Leadership less than a year later - are more than 'just a few years ago.' Depression is an awful thing, especially when you think to yourself your best years are behind you. We had a young couple , (in their 30s) who were previous neighbours come up from London to visit us for the weekend recently. They are lawyers working in the City and are focussed on their climb up the corporate ladder. They said they loved it in the 'sticks' but I'm sure they couldn't wait to get back to their busy lives and plans for the future. I was almost envious of them going back to the 'rat race' because although I always hated that world I envied their enthusiasm and sense of excitement over all the stages they had still to look forward too, while I find it hard sometimes to look forward to anything because I feel there's nothing new or original anymore. I always loved going to the Maldives diving, (I'd go there every year if I could afford it) but on all my subsequent trips I have never been able to recapture the excitement I felt during the first time I saw the beauty of the reef. The only answer I think is to try and live in the present. Phil Stutz and Jonah Hill did an interesting documentary, it's on Netflix, as is a new one called 'The subtle art of not giving a f*ck'. I recommend both. They'll give you some perspective. |
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Post by alec on May 13, 2023 6:42:17 GMT
Just in case people wonder what lies behind the covid denialism - www.thestar.com/business/2023/05/11/canadas-major-banks-could-see-profits-drop-by-9-on-office-slowdown.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialMedia&utm_campaign=Business&utm_content=hybridwork_oIt's a similar story in the US, where fears over commercial real estate values are seen as potential triggers for another banking crash. As with NHS Scotland now banning staff from voluntarily wearing face masks in care settings, citing cost as one of their reasons, the short sighted 'living with covid' strategy is something based on economic, rather than health concerns. Even here though, they've got it wrong. The developing health crisis caused by repeat infections isn't going away any time soon, and it is already feeding through into poor economic performance. Corporate short termism at it's finest - probably the greatest ever example - with the liberal left completely suckered into backing the right wing libertarian agenda hoot, line and sinker. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 13, 2023 6:45:46 GMT
I understand that the problems with Transpennine Express was to do with shortage of train drivers. Where are the government going to magic them up from? Well that might be what the franchise are saying, however… …Apparently they had more cancellations than any other operator in January-February. They had more cancellations than all the other operators put together. Mmmmm? You appear to be inferring that the train operator cancelled services for reasons other than lack of train crew. Why else would a train company cancel services, if they had drivers available and/or trains that were serviceable? As to where they get drivers, I recall meeting an old colleague on York Station several times back in 2001ish. I was staggered to see him in Northern Spirit train drivers uniform. Previously he'd been the HR manager at the NatWest service centre where my unit was based. Apparently he'd taken redundancy shortly after I left and spotted an ad for train drivers and been accepted. His line was York to Hull |
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Post by moby on May 13, 2023 6:58:20 GMT
jib My dad told me that the army would have mutinied. Many, like him, had been at war for 6 years already. Also of course USSR had been our ally. Of course, it really was a step too far.Had the public known about the treachery and infiltration by the Soviets into UK Civil Society, it may have been different. We were so complacent and smug after the war and the Soviets took advantage of our class based flaws and prejudice and turned it against us. The complacency of films such as This Happy Breed etc based on Noel Cowards world of everyone being happy in their place and with their lot and then we had the sixties,.... such a relief😄 |
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