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Post by James E on May 10, 2023 18:11:32 GMT
On the Britain Elects/New Statesman 'ward by ward' analysis. Having read the article and, in particular, studied the table of 69 currently Tory constituencies, it looks like we are to some degree heading back toward pre-Brexit voting patterns, although not totally so. For example in Thanet South (Labour target 111, but not a 'traditional' Labour seat, won only in the Blair landslides) Labour lead by 4%, but in Great Grimsby (target 114, but a traditional Labour area) Labour are 10% ahead. Likewise Labour have stonking great leads in other traditional Labour seats such as West Bromwich East (26%), Bolsover (19%), WAkefield (25%), Burnley (19%). Labour has a 9% lead in Cannock Chase - target number 275! However, it is clear that some change is also going on. From example Labour 'won' Aldershot 41% to 35%, a seat even Blair couldn't take. Of the 69 seats examined Con win 33 (they are not all marginals, there are many safe seats included), Labour win 24, the Lib Dems 9 and the Greens 3. In case you are wondering where the Green ones are: they are 35% to 35% with the Tories in Bury St Edmunds, 28% to 25% ahead in Folkestone and Hythe and 31% to 25% in Forest of Dean, so probably unlikely they would actually win any of those in a GE. I did post the Aldershot result here on Saturday, pjw1961 - see page 49  . Labour won 60% of the votes cast in Aldershot itself, to the Tories 34%, but the other parts of the constituency are more favourable for the Conservatives. The nearest the Labour have been before was 17% behind the Tories in 2001. It was one of those seats where the LDs and Lab were competing to be the main challengers to the Tories in both 1997 and 2001. The 2019 Tory majority was 35%, so the LE result would be a swing of slightly over 20%. |
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Post by mercian on May 10, 2023 18:18:17 GMT
Yes. I find it particularly irritating when some seemingly reasonably intelligent presenter or journalist says something like "And here we have an economist to explain the numbers to us" |
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Post by JohnC on May 10, 2023 18:53:33 GMT
There is an article in today's London Evening Standard about the 'Londonisation' of the South-East' particularly to the west of London. People leaving London because of WFH or no longer able to afford to live there are taking their London Labour or Lib Dem sympathies with them. This is unlike when the East End slums were cleared and people moved to Essex and changed from Labour to Tory supporters.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2023 19:05:39 GMT
Also, a min number of LDs for them to be credibly able to push for a coalition, personally I can't see them reaching enough and a time limited C&S arrangement would be more plausible. One of the problems that arose in the 2010-15 Coalition was that the Lib Dems ended up with a minister in each department (and usually not the most senior minister) and that was with 50+ MPs. The general thinking in the Party afterwards was that it would have been better to have had the Lib Dem ministers concentrated in a few departments, rather than spread across Government. With, say, a maximum of 30 MPs after the GE, the Lib Dems could not expect more than 10 ministers in total (~10%), which makes it difficult to concentrate them, so I agree that a C&S arrangement looks more likely (e.g. the Lib-Lab pact during the 1975-1979 government which lasted for eighteen months). Even so, for a C&S to work Labour have to offer the Lib Dems something - it was Liberal disillusionment with the Lib-Lab pact that ended it and left the Labour Party dependent on SNP support. (This was before I was active politically, but I heard this from Liberals after the merger). If we assume an autumn 2024 GE, then the aim might be to go through to the summer of 2026 as a minority administration. |
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Post by graham on May 10, 2023 19:20:19 GMT
It would be very unwise for Labour to contemplate a Coalition with a party which shares responsibility for the Austerity policies which continue to seriously undermine our public services. The Lib/Lab pact which ran from Spring 1977 - Autumn 1978 is a more likely precedent.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2023 19:27:26 GMT
Trump lost the 2020 election largely due to the women's vote, he got 44% to Bidens 54% Trump's latest finding of sexual assault is only likely to increase his unpopularity among women, but it still looks like the Republicans will nominate him Batshit crazy But it isnt. There are only two parties whose candidates are likely to win. I havn't studied the US but in the Uk about half the people will not vote for either of the main parties, ie the only ones likely to win. Here con or lab are only chasing about 1/4 of voters to win, 3/4 are never going to vote for you and so it doesnt matter if they do not like you or your candidate. Assuming this applies in the US too, either side needs a candidate acceptable to about 1/4 of the population. Trump can therefore offend most people and still win. So the real question is not whether most americans hate him, but whether more like him than the other guy. Who is the candidate who can best whip up a voting block which might win. In the UK con did this trick with Brexit, and it worked to get them elected, and to hell with the country. |
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Post by mercian on May 10, 2023 19:27:32 GMT
I think it may have been Bill Gates who persuaded IBM to open the platform, which was bad news for IBM long term as they kept getting undercut, whereas it was great news for Bill Gates as his OS usually got installed by default. (He lucked out there as the story goes as IBM had intended to commission another company for the OS but they were out when IBM called and Microsoft got the gig, IIRC?) I was quite close to this at the time, as I was a technical manager for another manufacturer which outsold IBM in the UK for a few years. The leading OS company at the time was Digital Research with CP/M. Their CEO (can't remember his name but I did meet him) was out water-skiing when IBM called. He told them he'd call them back. This was before mobile phones of course. Anyway IBM were the big boys then so they were irate and cast around for anyone else with an OS. Gates was one of the very few and though a very young man was canny enough to get a licence fee with every copy of PC-DOS that was sold, and also kept the rights to MS-DOS which he sold to everyone else (who of course wanted to copy IBM). When he came to see us we were amazed how young he was. I was early 30s and had been in the industry for a decade. We were grizzled old veterans with mainframe backgrounds and mostly heavy drinkers. Our technical director spilt a bottle of red wine on Gates' white suit. None of us thought it was an accident, but a dominance ploy. The TD was a real b*stard, a bit like a younger version of James Robertson Justice in the Doctor films. Ah, those were the days 🤣 |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 10, 2023 19:34:23 GMT
There is an article in today's London Evening Standard about the 'Londonisation' of the South-East' particularly to the west of London. People leaving London because of WFH or no longer able to afford to live there are taking their London Labour or Lib Dem sympathies with them. This is unlike when the East End slums were cleared and people moved to Essex and changed from Labour to Tory supporters.They didn't switch from Labour to Tory immediately. Labour won Basildon in both the 1974 elections by over 10,000 votes but the swing to the Conservatives in 1979 was huge (11%) and the seat lost. Harlow was similar - a 28.4% Labour lead in October 1974, reduced to just 2.6% in 1979. Thatcher had a particular appeal to the many Sun readers of those parts, and a lot of it was due to anti-immigration rhetoric in the late 70s, but then later reinforced with Council house sales and the knock down price share sell offs in public utilities. I don't think the current out-flux from London will behave in the same way, as the Conservatives don't have much to offer them that they want. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 10, 2023 19:40:06 GMT
New Scottish poll from Survation. I think Yousaf and the SNP will be relieved that there has not been a bigger impact on SNP VI and on support for independence:
60% said "The Scottish government"
22% said "The UK Government"
10% said "Local councils"
The only crossbreaks with most in favour of the UK government having most say was those who had voted SCon in 2019 and 2021. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2023 19:42:09 GMT
With CON and LAB having very similar policies then the "middle" is going to look a lot like both of them anyway. We're all Tories now But thats the thing. Libs had policies which neither main party would accept. And arguably that is exactly why they were starting to win. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2023 19:48:00 GMT
Vince Cable on Comment Central about coalition prospects: commentcentral.co.uk/lib-dems-could-back-labour-for-electoral-reformEd Davey is right not to rule out a coalition with Labour but it is highly unlikely that the Lib Dems would go into such an arrangement this side of electoral reform being delivered.
A looser ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement is much more plausible, depending on how the numbers look after an election and subject to agreement on reform of the voting system. |
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2023 19:50:50 GMT
Now you mention it, there is probably a correlation between severe covid, heart disease, and spending a lot of time watching TV. Especially if accomanied by frequents snacks. In that case there could be a correlation between Covid and sitting there reading this board! 😮😮😮 And there wuld certainly be a correlation between enforced inactivity such as in a national lockdown, and susceptibility to such diseases including covid. Interesting question to what extent deterioration inn the nations health due to lockdown might have contributed to additional covid cases thereafter. Oh the joys of correlation. |
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Post by graham on May 10, 2023 19:51:04 GMT
Vince Cable on Comment Central about coalition prospects: commentcentral.co.uk/lib-dems-could-back-labour-for-electoral-reformEd Davey is right not to rule out a coalition with Labour but it is highly unlikely that the Lib Dems would go into such an arrangement this side of electoral reform being delivered.
A looser ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement is much more plausible, depending on how the numbers look after an election and subject to agreement on reform of the voting system.Re-Electoral Reform I would be happy to see Labour bring in AV - but not PR. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 10, 2023 19:56:29 GMT
Vince Cable on Comment Central about coalition prospects: commentcentral.co.uk/lib-dems-could-back-labour-for-electoral-reformEd Davey is right not to rule out a coalition with Labour but it is highly unlikely that the Lib Dems would go into such an arrangement this side of electoral reform being delivered.
A looser ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement is much more plausible, depending on how the numbers look after an election and subject to agreement on reform of the voting system.Re-Electoral Reform I would be happy to see Labour bring in AV - but not PR. Your stated intention I believe is to vote Green - they support PR. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 10, 2023 19:58:40 GMT
graham Why not have you got a problem with every vote being of equal value.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2023 20:06:38 GMT
I can see that something like facial recognition may be useful for, say, kiddie-fiddlers or for those that attack others with large knives (as detailed on the news yesterday), but, throwing an egg???Well kiddie-fiddlers would be most unlikely to disrupt the television show, whereas an egg on the royal ermine very definitely would. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2023 20:15:08 GMT
Vince Cable on Comment Central about coalition prospects: commentcentral.co.uk/lib-dems-could-back-labour-for-electoral-reformEd Davey is right not to rule out a coalition with Labour but it is highly unlikely that the Lib Dems would go into such an arrangement this side of electoral reform being delivered.
A looser ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement is much more plausible, depending on how the numbers look after an election and subject to agreement on reform of the voting system.Re-Electoral Reform I would be happy to see Labour bring in AV - but not PR. AV is not PR and can, depending on the circumstances, produce even more extreme outcomes than FPTP. Somewhere I still have a published paper which compares different electoral systems and one of the conclusions it came to (this was a few years after the 1997 election) was that in landslide conditions AV can produce extreme results. Roy Jenkins' proposal combined AV with a top-up of list members, effectively a hybrid between AV and AMS, but the top-up had to be large to get reasonable proportionality. |
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Post by neilj on May 10, 2023 20:15:11 GMT
Trump lost the 2020 election largely due to the women's vote, he got 44% to Bidens 54% Trump's latest finding of sexual assault is only likely to increase his unpopularity among women, but it still looks like the Republicans will nominate him Batshit crazy But it isnt. There are only two parties whose candidates are likely to win. I havn't studied the US but in the Uk about half the people will not vote for either of the main parties, ie the only ones likely to win. Here con or lab are only chasing about 1/4 of voters to win, 3/4 are never going to vote for you and so it doesnt matter if they do not like you or your candidate. Assuming this applies in the US too, either side needs a candidate acceptable to about 1/4 of the population. Trump can therefore offend most people and still win. So the real question is not whether most americans hate him, but whether more like him than the other guy. Who is the candidate who can best whip up a voting block which might win. In the UK con did this trick with Brexit, and it worked to get them elected, and to hell with the country. Disagree,I don't think Biden won because he was Biden, I think he won because he wasn't Trump Biden wasn't an inspirational candidate, he was actually quite a vanilla candidate, but he wasn't Trump Trump has a cadre of very keen supporters, the problem is he has a much bigger section of people who really don't like him and will vote against him and for any candidate who doesn't frighten the horses, little like the ABT vote |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2023 20:15:54 GMT
So what do people think is the minimum likely Tory recovery before the GE and does that still likely deliver an OM for Labour? A short while ago then I said Rishi-CON might well get to 200+ in GE'24. Not a prediction but a "plausible scenario". Perhaps 250+ is now plausible (based on stuff like inflation coming down later this year and Rishi doing some/not all delivery of his other priorities) I think it was the civil service union this morning voting to renew their strike mandate for another six months. They argued that the norm now for government pay settlements is a pay rise plus a one off bonus. Yet they had not been offered the bonus, and expect to get it. The bonus of course is really a pay rise which the government refuses to call that. So what happens next year? When presumably government intends to say it was a one off, but the unions will simply bring out the statistics of how much pay has fallen over 14 years, and say they either need the full pay rise, or yet another 'bonus'. If con plan an early election before the next annual round, maybe this autumn, then I can see how they will leave this problem for lab to solve. But if they drag on to the last possible date, they are going to have to face this problem in the runup to that election. |
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Post by jib on May 10, 2023 20:16:43 GMT
graham Why not have you got a problem with every vote being of equal value. That's a bit rich coming from the Lib Dems. You're the ones who got into bed with the Tories and 2010, were in Government 2010 to 15 and delivered NOTHING in terms of electoral reform. #dupes |
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Post by graham on May 10, 2023 20:20:00 GMT
Re-Electoral Reform I would be happy to see Labour bring in AV - but not PR. Your stated intention I believe is to vote Green - they support PR. Indeed so - but I would be voting Green for unrelated reasons - ie Starmer's compulsive lying and his obsessive persecution of Corbyn. |
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Post by graham on May 10, 2023 20:22:59 GMT
graham Why not have you got a problem with every vote being of equal value. PR does not achieve that anyway. How many OMRLP MPs would it deliver ? Or any other party poliing - say - 0.5% of the vote? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 10, 2023 20:26:58 GMT
jibAs you know I wasn't a liberal democrat at that time and as usual with your pet obsession it has nothing to do with all votes being equal. Incidentally it was you who got into bed as you put it with the far right brexitanian luddites. The liberal democrats paid for their mistake everyone is paying for your stupidity.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 10, 2023 21:03:37 GMT
Interesting analysis
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Post by crossbat11 on May 10, 2023 21:45:19 GMT
Plaid Cymru in some disarray tonight. Adam Price is likely to resign after stories have emerged of misogyny and bullying within the party; behaviour that appears to have gone on for some time without any serious investigation or rebuke. If Price nobly falls on his sword, no obvious deputy or replacement appears to be in sight.
Rather like the SNP's problems in Scotland, I wonder if this is another piece of good luck for Labour? They have retained a decent electoral position in the principality, unlike in Scotland, so there is less scope for seat-hoovering than there is north of the border, but I would have thought a Plaid Cymru in retreat can only be good news for Labour in Wales. Disillusioned and alienated PC voters are more likely to drift leftwards than rightwards when looking for another party to support.
My only worry with all this good news piling up for Labour, and that Prospect analysis of the local council election results, suggesting increasingly benign electoral geography developing for the party, is another Starmer broken pledge emerging.
Another one and I think the game is up. Four and the electorate are likely to be forgiving, but if we get to five, then I fear a tipping point in voter tolerance.
There is only so much offence to a section of the Labour membership that the British electorate will stand.
🤔😋
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 10, 2023 21:54:26 GMT
Just returning to the 'ward by ward' analyses from New Statesman I discovered that while all the individual seat information I gave was correct, the totals are not right (the mysterious duplicates had replaced some seats). The corrected figure is 84 Conservative parliamentary seats analysed - 44 Con leads (mostly very safe seats), 27 Labour leads, 10 Lib Dem leads, 3 Green leads.
Some that might interest a few of our regular contributors include:
Norwich North: Lab 42%, Con 30%, Green 18%, LD 10%
Hemel Hempstead (covers a lot of Dacorum DC): Con 36%, LD 33%, Lab 22%, Green 3%
Braintree: Con 36%, Lab 23%, Green 17%, LD 3%
Bournemouth East: Lab 25%, Con 24%, LD 18%, Green 16%
Bournemouth West: LD 34%, Con 27%, Lab 16%, Green 14%
And if Andrew Bridgen fancies a by-election it would be interesting!
North West Leicestershire: Con 41% Lab 38%, LD 13%, Green 2%
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Post by graham on May 10, 2023 22:52:19 GMT
Just returning to the 'ward by ward' analyses from New Statesman I discovered that while all the individual seat information I gave was correct, the totals are not right (the mysterious duplicates had replaced some seats). The corrected figure is 84 Conservative parliamentary seats analysed - 44 Con leads (mostly very safe seats), 27 Labour leads, 10 Lib Dem leads, 3 Green leads. Some that might interest a few of our regular contributors include: Norwich North: Lab 42%, Con 30%, Green 18%, LD 10% Hemel Hempstead (covers a lot of Dacorum DC): Con 36%, LD 33%, Lab 22%, Green 3% Braintree: Con 36%, Lab 23%, Green 17%, LD 3% Bournemouth East: Lab 25%, Con 24%, LD 18%, Green 16% Bournemouth West: LD 34%, Con 27%, Lab 16%, Green 14% And if Andrew Bridgen fancies a by-election it would be interesting! North West Leicestershire: Con 41% Lab 38%, LD 13%, Green 2% Re - North west Leicestershire - Not a particularly bad outcome for the Tories given that the seat was Labour-held 1997 - 2010. |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 10, 2023 22:59:35 GMT
I did a cross-sample analysis (but because of the lack of access to the raw data, I combined it with a version of multivariate analysis) - it is often misused, so I was very careful (and used the multivariate analysis as a control), and I can say that on the basis of the figures Labour will have a majority with 95% confidence intervals.
On the basis of the data I tried a Bayesian analysis. It still suggests a Labour majority, but the Bayesian inference is not yet settled in seems (but it is becoming more robust). I have to add that methodologically it is not quote right what I did, but it seems to be acceptable.
What we would really need is a poll - "I would never vote for Party X, Y, Z" so rejection and not preference. Then a different model could be constructed that could verify the preference outcome.
But as I said, the data available suggests a sizeable Labour majority right now.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 10, 2023 23:00:12 GMT
Pjw1961
I had a quick look at the ward by ward analysis for Redditch and, to be honest, found it a little baffling at first sight. Big jumps in Labour percentage vote share from 2019, particularly in the five wards they gained from the Tories, but no reciprocal reduction in the Tory percentage vote share. That only dropped a few points in most cases and, at first glance, it wasn't immediately obvious where the Labour increased share had come from. Maybe some independent candidates had stood down from 2019. There was clear evidence, however, of the Lib Dem vote being squeezed by Labour.
Put another way, a static Tory horse being overtaken by a turbo charged Labour horse that had been given additional legs by a hitherto rival stable.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 10, 2023 23:28:51 GMT
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. Labour won 60% of the votes cast in Aldershot itself, to the Tories 34%, but the other parts of the constituency are more favourable for the Conservatives.
