Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 7, 2023 13:09:46 GMT
Sir Ed Davey's CV includes: "Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change In office: 3 February 2012 – 8 May 2015 Prime Minister: David Cameron" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_DaveyYet he's just been on TV saying: "I've spent all my life fighting the Conservatives" (apart from when he took a red briefcase and pay rise to do their bidding in the CON-LDEM coalition) Although Streeting was even more of a 🤦♂️ by saying: "You don't make promises you can't keep" |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 7, 2023 13:25:22 GMT
Trevor, Slight quibble with ''Greens will vote best placed ABCON'' As suggested before I contend that recent Green switchers in some places are coming mainly from disillusioned Tories with an element of Nimbyism you and I posted about yesterday. In essence the Greens have displaced the LDs as the protest party in certain places (such as Darlington). They have been able to form a coalition of voters with 3 groups: Radical Greens, Labour malcontents and recently more 'local environment' Tories. The idea that the latter would endorse leaving Nato and other left wing policies is questionable to say the least. Sorry for repeat from a day or ago but worth restating imo, that simplistically adding GRN above 3/4% to Lab for the GE would be erroneous imo. Best for Lab at the GE is that these 'Tory Greens' either stick with Green for the GE or abstain as despite the Greens being to the left of Lab on Economic and Social policy many of these voters would never consider voting Labour. In much of the country Greens voters will be predominantly ABT at the GE, the big cities for example, but Lab will have to be careful how they use the 2 horse race messaging. As a point of fact, the Green Party does not oppose membership NATO. That policy changed: greenworld.org.uk/article/spring-conference-2023-roundIn broad terms you are correct. There are serious incompatibilities between Labour and Green Party policy (such as electoral and constitutional reform) are a major barrier to Green voters tactically supporting Labour. These barriers have increased for sure with Starmer's leadership. I think you are referring to the Green Party of England and Wales. The separate Scottish Green Party is still anti-NATO. As others on here have said, party-switching in Scotland tends to be on pro-/anti-independence lines, so the SNP's troubles may very well lead to SGP MPs being elected. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 7, 2023 13:38:47 GMT
...the SNP's troubles may very well lead to SGP MPs being elected. SNP have dominated Scotland in FPTP Westminster elections as they were the only (or at least dominant) Indy party against three Unionist parties who split the Unionist vote. Whilst the Unionist parties have become more tactical at a local level then for the Indy vote to split would simply hand a lot more seats to SLAB (and a few more to SCON, maybe 1 more to SLIB - although that would be on 2019 boundaries, rather the overall reduction of seats likely by GE'24) Electionpolling lump both Green parties into one but folks can look at SGP targets as the Green target seats in Scotland are conveniently given a "yellow" colour. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/greenHistorically SGP have avoided contesting the tighter SNP-Unionist seats (or put up a 'paper candidate') specifically to avoid splitting the Indy vote. SGP might win a few seats (from SNP) but the overall impact would be a much larger gain for the Unionist parties (notably SLAB) |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 7, 2023 13:39:55 GMT
It must have been nice for top Tories to have a day at the coronation after the disaster of the LEs. I thought Sunak did a creditable job of reading the lesson - made it seem as if he meant it, and indeed had rehearsed it so well he almost knew it by heart. And Penny Mordaunt was superb! I didn't even recognise her until after. In contrast, Archbishop Welby was distinctly underwhelming, and Charles needed a script for the simplest of responses. I liked the music, but soldiers and silly hats generally leave me cold as spectacle. Still, each to his own. If we ever go for an elected monarch, I'm for Penny! When Truss demoted her to Leader of the House and Lord President of the (Privy) Council she obviously did not think about the consequences for the coming Coronation (or even Charles taking the oaths of Accession at St James' Palace). I'm sure it hasn't done Mordaunt's chances of becoming the next Tory leader any harm. |
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Post by joeboy on May 7, 2023 14:02:40 GMT
That assumes that Green voters in local elections agree with or are even aware of Green national policies. The Green Party growth in Braintree started when Essex CC wanted to build a waste incineration plant in Silver End. The local Tory councillors were promptly removed by the electorate and replaced by Greens - in other words there was a strong NIMBY element to the vote. The Braintree Greens retain an anti-development stance, hence their ability to enter into a formal pact with the Independents. However, Green voters are obviously also anti-Tory or they would vote Conservative. In short, assuming that Green are all radical lefties who will be repulsed by Starmer - or even Sunak in the right circumstances - would be unwise. Or put more simply, voters of all parties likely don't 100% endorse that party's programme, but vote for diverse reasons of their own, including local circumstances, tactical considerations, dislike of other parties, etc. Ah, 'Blueshirts on bicycles'. 😊 |
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Post by johntel on May 7, 2023 14:02:57 GMT
It must have been nice for top Tories to have a day at the coronation after the disaster of the LEs. I thought Sunak did a creditable job of reading the lesson - made it seem as if he meant it, and indeed had rehearsed it so well he almost knew it by heart. And Penny Mordaunt was superb! I didn't even recognise her until after. In contrast, Archbishop Welby was distinctly underwhelming, and Charles needed a script for the simplest of responses. I liked the music, but soldiers and silly hats generally leave me cold as spectacle. Still, each to his own. If we ever go for an elected monarch, I'm for Penny! When Truss demoted her to Leader of the House and Lord President of the (Privy) Council she obviously did not think about the consequences for the coming Coronation (or even Charles taking the oaths of Accession at St James' Palace). I'm sure it hasn't done Mordaunt's chances of becoming the next Tory leader any harm. She'll be a shoe-in if you ask me - footwearnews.com/2023/fashion/womens/king-charles-coronation-penny-mordaunt-sword-pumps-1203460498/ |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2023 14:11:11 GMT
Trevor
While I didn't support the coalition I think I would much prefer to have someone who took the existential issue of climate change seriously than the current incumbent Grant multi name Shapps.
Davey's position is that he was trying to support sensible policy against Tory procrastination,don't necessarily accept that but it's an argument.
Happy to see any involvement with the Tories ruled out.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on May 7, 2023 14:14:24 GMT
Thatcher was trying to do was give a stake in the country to those who had previously never had one. And why didn't she replace all the ones sold? You think 20 or 30 thousand a year is enough? The councils were told not to use the money from sales to build more houses. And I remember people saying at the time eventually it would revert to how it was before the war when private landords screwed everyone who didn't own a home. That was the reason so many council houses were built in the first place.
Funny how what was predicted is now happening, although it's taken 40 years. But we knew that. I'm genuinely surprised it's taken that long. A problem for a future government. What no one predicted was how totally incometent a Tory government would become.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on May 7, 2023 14:17:23 GMT
Ok, your answer to my first point is just another way of expressing what I said. As you seem incapable of reading links, here are the council building figures for 1989: Q1 3,100 Q2 3,610 Q3 3,370 Q4 2,680 Not large numbers, but the figures do not support your contention that councils were not allowed to build. Not allowed to build using money from council house sales. Why do the hard of thinking always like Tory policies? |
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Post by graham on May 7, 2023 14:23:29 GMT
Thatcher was trying to do was give a stake in the country to those who had previously never had one. And why didn't she replace all the ones sold? You think 20 or 30 thousand a year is enough? The councils were told not to use the money from sales to build more houses. And I remember people saying at the time eventually it would revert to how it was before the war when private landords screwed everyone who didn't own a home. That was the reason so many council houses were built in the first place.
Funny how what was predicted is now happening, although it's taken 40 years. But we knew that. I'm genuinely surprised it's taken that long. A problem for a future government. What no one predicted was how totally incometent a Tory government would become.
Agree with all of that - but it is to Labour's shame that whilst in office 1997 - 2010 it failed to reverse Thatcher's policy. |
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Post by graham on May 7, 2023 14:30:13 GMT
In essence the Greens have displaced the LDs as the protest party in certain places (such as Darlington). They have been able to form a coalition of voters with 3 groups: Radical Greens, Labour malcontents and recently more 'local environment' Tories. The idea that the latter would endorse leaving Nato and other left wing policies is questionable to say the least. I completely agree with this...and say this as someone considering a Green vote at the next GE (although far, far, FAR from making my mind up)... The Greens have a similar, but, mirror image of future problems the tories will likely face. For the tories (and in the he she short term, it partially depends on which faction shouts loudest after their local election rout), they seem to be doubling down on the socially illiberal / "anti-woke" / trad-right path. It was a path that, in the short term, with brexit as a proxy, undoubtedly won them the 2019 election. But, there is a stark difference, based on age, which is bourne out by polling (and anecdotal evidence re-children of friends bears this out as well). The tories, if they keep to this path are slowly walking to political oblivion. The Greens have the opposite problem. Some of their recent support is coming from leafy outer suburbia. Those who, as I've said before are soft right types who see the Greens as "Liberals its ok to like". Such people would baulk at, what are left wing policies that Corbynites would be more than happy to get behind. These are potential future foot-soldiers, leaflet deliverers, the backbone of any ascendent party. The LibDems before them, while LOC on social issues, were centrist (or in the case of Orange Book LibDems, centre right) economically, and despite, in their heyday, being a little to the left of Blair's Labour, could, to an extent, look both ways. I dont think the Greens have that option on their current policy profile and if or when they become a largr force or a main/major recepticle for the go-to protest vote, could run into problems. Yes - the Greens have become the NOTA anti-establishment option for many disillusioned voters. Pre-Coalition the LDs were often seen this way, but now many left of centre voters will switch to the Greens rather than the LDs. The legacy of the Coalition years continues to hold back any LD recovery - particularly where another alternative is now readily available. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2023 14:36:29 GMT
Pensioner gets new hat and walking sticks. He doesn't seem too happy about it. Perhaps he'd prefer ones without knobs. Attachment Deleted |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2023 14:43:43 GMT
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Post by alec on May 7, 2023 15:04:19 GMT
Not sure if previously referenced, so apologies if duplicating, but in Ukraine, it is now confirmed that the Ukrainians have shot down one of Russia's hyper sonic Kinzhal missiles, which Russia had previously said were immune to air defence systems. Ukraine used a US supplied Patriot anti missile system. And a few days ago there was widely circulated video showing a drone attack on the Kremlin itself. It was a minor incident in terms of impact, with an explosion and small fire, but a compare and contrast between Moscow's 'Ring of Steel' air defence system and the Ukrainian ability to intercept Russia's most advanced air attack weaponry is somewhat entertaining.
All going swimmingly for the Kremlin.
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Post by johntel on May 7, 2023 15:08:38 GMT
I've just been looking at the latest Electoral Calculus prediction for Mole Valley and it's clear they still haven't got a clue.
They're saying the Tory majority will hardly be dented and the Lib Dem vote will go down because of a big swing from Lib Dem to Labour. It's garbage, how can anyone take their model seriously!
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on May 7, 2023 15:28:24 GMT
Why does her hat look bigger than his? Or has she a smaller head.
This is the first image I've seen of the hat festival. Honestly they just look ridiculous. And to think there are millions of sycophantic numpties cheering this on. Luckily as I'm living in Freiburg for a bit I've missed all of this. Whoop!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 15:36:37 GMT
So when Sky news offer us a seats projection which is clearly based on UNS, I think we're entitled to query it. Recent General Elections results have diverged widely from UNS too, and I expect 2024 to be no different. And any calculation which anticipates the LDs doing as well in a General Election as in Local Elections is absurd - their LE performance is typically around 7-8 points above their GE polling - though this makes very little difference to the Lab seats total as there are so few Lab/LD contests. The biggest factor affecting likelihood to win at a general election is who came first and second last time. lab and con have run government pretty much exclusively for a century because they have run government exclusively for a century. However if you start looking at the overall patterns, particulalry considering locals too, it looks like con are a national party, whereas lab, lib, SNP vie for the other leaders place around the nation. This suggests that if libs ever do overcome the disadvantage placed on them by FPP, we could end up in a situation where they and lab are sharing one of the winning pair positions in England. It might become impossible for lab to ever again achieve a majority government...even under FPP. Libs made a fatal mistake in supporting con in 2010. They totally failed to differentiate themselves from con. For three parties to exist, they have to be distinct. Just what are the differences? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2023 15:45:01 GMT
alurqaI once danced on a bar wearing a sombrero and clutching a pair of maraccas so I appreciate the ability of hats to make you look like a massive tit but wearing a solid silver chess piece on your bonce takes it to another level.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 15:48:10 GMT
Pensioner couple looking for the rest of the chess set. I wouldn't wish to assume lifespan for anyone, and the royal family are likely to get the best available medical care. But this is a very different game to when Elizabeth came to the throne aged 27. Charles is 74, by which age his mother was coming up to her golden jubilee. William is 40 and can reasonably expect to become king rather younger than his father. Charles did look a bit old. We might be in a bus situation, where two always come along at once. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 15:52:50 GMT
It must have been nice for top Tories to have a day at the coronation after the disaster of the LEs. I thought Sunak did a creditable job of reading the lesson - made it seem as if he meant it, and indeed had rehearsed it so well he almost knew it by heart. And Penny Mordaunt was superb! I didn't even recognise her until after. In contrast, Archbishop Welby was distinctly underwhelming, and Charles needed a script for the simplest of responses. I liked the music, but soldiers and silly hats generally leave me cold as spectacle. Still, each to his own. If we ever go for an elected monarch, I'm for Penny! yeah Mordaunt nailed it. With that sword. I noticed scripts at the funeral service too. Obviously you do not want to make a mistake, did he mess up a response at his wedding or was it Di? But he did seem to be desperately following the script. Soldiers and silly hats were fantastic. Mordaunt indeed did well to find a dress which fitted in with that. The whole point of monarchy is soldiers and silly hats. |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 7, 2023 15:58:22 GMT
Very disappointing.
And I will be asked to lend my vote to Labour?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 15:59:58 GMT
AW used to say that manifestos and campaigns didn't matter much, voters having already decided who to vote for months before a GE - but GE'17 busted that myth. These were however exceptional circumstances. It is unusual to have a one issue election. And May made a point of campaigning on a hard Brexit, not any old brexit. I think she was honestly trying to warn the nation how bad brexit would be, and thats also why she was pushing new taxes for elderly care, because the upshot of brexit will be a poorer nation. Without admitting brexit was a mistake, she wanted to be clear it would be very costly and for voters to understand that tories stood for poorer sevices/higher taxes. Without being able to say any of this. Whereas in 2019 Johnson lied through his teeth in pretending brexit was sorted and all would be well with the economy. Which is the job he was picked to do. May tried to make it work, Johnson just gave up on that and did it anyway. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 16:04:00 GMT
But it does not convey sincerity to hear a religious script being read by a non-believer. He/she is obviously simply going through the motions. I am not blaming Sunak at all - he was obviously asked to do it and could hardly refuse. I am not aware that Churchill delivered a Reading at the 1953 Coronation . Ditto Baldwin in 1937. I presume its because since then we have high quality television and so the politicians all wanted to be name checked and make appearances. Mordaunt got the lucky ticket. |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 7, 2023 16:06:59 GMT
On the earlier discussion about the Greens.
Since the 2017 elections I have had some fairly close interactions with three branches of the party (very different parts of England), and it has been quote fascinating. One is essentially what the official party is. In one former Conservative voters are dominant, and while they follow the main line, their communication often diverts. In the third one there is a minority, but fairly closed knit group of former CP members (or their relatives - as some seem to be too young for that), and they communicate on the prerequisites of the Green policies rather than on the policies.
I found it fascinating, and it is really pleasant to be in communication with all the three branches (and they also know that I am not Green).
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Post by alec on May 7, 2023 16:12:36 GMT
Also on the subject of Russia and the war, this analysis is intriguing - www.kyivpost.com/post/16742Many western experts on Russian affairs have been wildly wrong in their assessments over the last couple of years, most of them grossly overstating Russia's abilities and powers, so it is somewhat refreshing to read a western expert view that leans very firmly the other way. Whether this analysis is valid I really can't judge, although the unspoken central thesis upon which is based - that centralized states with little democratic accountability, weak governing structures and highly personalized leaderships that relies on suppression of dissent and propaganda can appear very strong but can also collapse extremely rapidly once a tipping point is past - is historically familiar. I think it's beyond doubt that Russia, without the wholehearted support of China, is progressively weakening as a world player, and increasingly, even as a regional power. Whether this presages a complete collapse is not yet clear, and neither is it clear whether such a collapse would end up to the benefit of the west, and the rest of the world. But as each day passes, it is becoming more likely that the west is going to get another chance at securing a different kind of Russia. The first attempt was very successful indeed up to the Polish border, with the non-Russian elements of the Soviet Bloc mostly absorbed into Europe and western style liberal democracy. But that success stopped at the Russian border, where failure then led to the creation of the monster we now see. Maybe we'll have a better approach this time around, if the chance arises. |
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Post by alec on May 7, 2023 16:17:39 GMT
Also, on a lighter note, for the (few) fans of Scottish League Division 2 football on UKPR2 (there is at least one I am aware of), while not quite the greatest result of all time, now that the league table positions are confirmed, we do have one of those linguistic oddities so beloved of twitter.
There it is, in all it's glory;
East Fife - fourth
Forfar - fifth
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 16:17:39 GMT
Not sure if previously referenced, so apologies if duplicating, but in Ukraine, it is now confirmed that the Ukrainians have shot down one of Russia's hyper sonic Kinzhal missiles, which Russia had previously said were immune to air defence systems. Ukraine used a US supplied Patriot anti missile system. And a few days ago there was widely circulated video showing a drone attack on the Kremlin itself. It was a minor incident in terms of impact, with an explosion and small fire, but a compare and contrast between Moscow's 'Ring of Steel' air defence system and the Ukrainian ability to intercept Russia's most advanced air attack weaponry is somewhat entertaining. All going swimmingly for the Kremlin. ISW just reported that Russians have learnt how to jam HIMARS missiles so they can't find their targets. as with any war, both sides make advances. The main takeaway is that this war has been going for more than a year, and the west seems to have taken minimal steps to increase supply of armaments to Ukraine. This partly seems to be motivated by an idea it surely has to end soon, but it hasnt and the pattern of the first week that Ukraine is never going to surrender but Russia cannot withdraw has continued. The west seems to want a long war. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 16:21:14 GMT
alurqaI once danced on a bar wearing a sombrero and clutching a pair of maraccas so I appreciate the ability of hats to make you look like a massive tit but wearing a solid silver chess piece on your bonce takes it to another level. Time was I might have appreciated you dancing on a bar wearing just a sombrero clutching your maraccas! Oh those jolly policemen! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2023 16:43:03 GMT
Many western experts on Russian affairs have been wildly wrong in their assessments over the last couple of years, most of them grossly overstating Russia's abilities and powers, so it is somewhat refreshing to read a western expert view that leans very firmly the other way. Whether this analysis is valid I really can't judge, although the unspoken central thesis upon which is based - that centralized states with little democratic accountability, weak governing structures and highly personalized leaderships that relies on suppression of dissent and propaganda can appear very strong but can also collapse extremely rapidly once a tipping point is past - is historically familiar. So you are thinking that the Uk is in exactly this situation, with centralized control, minimal democratic input, very personalized ledership, increasing suppression of dissent? As to Russia, its military capability was distinctly over estimated as of two years ago. But then on revised ocnsideration of its capabilities, it has however managed to continue the war for 18 months and stabilise its control of occupied territory. By now the most optimistic views how its war effort would collapse have proven very wrong. Whereas Putin, the Russian people and plainly its enemies would see Russia as having recovered from a collapse and now being strong enough again militarily and indeed economically to seek to recover territories lost in that collapse. Its not at all clear to what extent China is supporting Russia. Obviously it isnt making this public. I think that is grossly optimistic. I dont see Russian central state collapsing at all. I'm sure they recognise why it did before and will have taken all the steps they can to prevent this. I see dissidents having fled the country as a real plus for the regime. It seems to have a strong message of russia against the world, and if it eventually loses in Ukaine, that only strengthens this message. There is no way we could launch a military invasion of Russia, so the only way would be economically, and Russia seems to have a lot of quiet economic allies. Their main export is fuel, and that has plenty of willing buyers. I think the end of this will be a Russia angry at the west. Last time the collapse was seen as government incompetence, this time it will be painted as simple foreign imperialism. Putin's propaganda has all been aimed at painting Russia as the victim. Its possible he correctly saw the war in Ukraine as a win for his position, whether the war itself was won drawn or lost. And the longer it goes on, the better for him. |
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2023 17:05:25 GMT
Presumably we'd still need a head of state? Presumably elected. Would you want to risk Boris Johnson for instance winning that race? I think it's far better to have a ceremonial head of state with few real powers except in extremis, and we have the best in the world. Does the coronation of the King of Belgium get beamed all round the world and attract mass tourism? You are making the mistake of thinking of executive Presidents of the US or French model, which are relatively rare. Most Presidents are no more executive and probably more neutral than our King. See Germany, Italy, Israel, Ireland and a mass of other examples. What they do have is a role in protecting the constitution from misbehaving Prime Ministers. So, for example, when the Queen went along with Boris Johnson's attempt to illegally prorogue parliament, a President would have been obliged to say no. I may be wrong but I seem to remember that it wasn't ruled illegal until afterwards. If that's true, how could the Queen know it was illegal? If it was ruled illegal before she gave her assent I apologise. |
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