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Post by ptarmigan on May 5, 2023 23:01:04 GMT
I must say that as much as I might bemoan the state of UK politics or wish for Labour to be better and bolder, there's nothing quite like the Tories getting a total shoeing to improve my mood and put a spring in my step  We may be stuck with the bastards for a little while longer but everything feels a bit brighter tonight. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 23:01:39 GMT
Scotland had a democratic vote in 2014 when the SNP leader and First Minister stated in public that the result would stand for a generation.By the mid-2030s sufficient time will have elapsed for it to be reasonable to consider a further vote - should the people so desire. The First Minister had no mandate to say this. It was his personal opinion. Incorrect. It was included in the official Scottish Government documentation "Scotland's Future". As I have said before, my personal opinion is that Brexit created a good case for a second referendum earlier, as it represented a fundamental change from the situation in 2014. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 23:10:01 GMT
It does seem to be a thing with the Labour party that their sense of entitlement to left of centre votes means they have great difficulty with the notion that opposition to a Conservative government can manifest itself in ways other than support for a Labour government. The idea that for some people it literally makes no difference, and that Labour may be be part of the problem and not the solution, they find quite incomprehensible.
And yet if you're a Scot who believes in independence it makes no difference. If you're a young person who's worried about being saddled with a lifetime of student debt it makes no difference. If you're a trans person who just wants to live their life like anyone else, it makes no difference. If you believe in a fair voting system, it makes no difference.
But for actual, real world alternatives to a conservative government there is only one game in town, and getting it into power via the English electorate is going to involve dissimulation and compromise. Once it's there it should have the ability to express it's true self more and if it doesn't then you can judge. There is only one other alternative and that is continued tory government. So are you saying that Starmer is lying to the electorate about what a Labour government would do once in power in order to garner votes ? |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 23:16:04 GMT
Scotland had a democratic vote in 2014 when the SNP leader and First Minister stated in public that the result would stand for a generation.By the mid-2030s sufficient time will have elapsed for it to be reasonable to consider a further vote - should the people so desire. We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think there should be any time barriers put on voting again on such matter should people vote for parties with a manifesto commitment to do so. If Labour had made a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU and got more than 50% of the mps then IMO it would be their democratic right under out FPP system to call another EU referendum. If people thought it was too soon they could always vote to stay out, as they could vote NO to Scottish independence if it was voted on again. Had there been a Yes vote in 2014, would you now be arguing in favour of a 'Rejoin the Union vote'? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 5, 2023 23:17:37 GMT
But for actual, real world alternatives to a conservative government there is only one game in town, and getting it into power via the English electorate is going to involve dissimulation and compromise. Once it's there it should have the ability to express it's true self more and if it doesn't then you can judge. There is only one other alternative and that is continued tory government. So are you saying that Starmer is lying to the electorate about what a Labour government would do once in power in order to garner votes ? Politics without being at the very least economical with the truth is not politics. Having wishlists of policies is one thing. Fighting to actually obtain power to be in a position to implement any change at all is very different. It's brutal and necessarily so, especially when you have enemies like the tories and the right wing press. |
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Post by Rafwan on May 5, 2023 23:23:41 GMT
But for actual, real world alternatives to a conservative government there is only one game in town, and getting it into power via the English electorate is going to involve dissimulation and compromise. Once it's there it should have the ability to express it's true self more and if it doesn't then you can judge. There is only one other alternative and that is continued tory government. So are you saying that Starmer is lying to the electorate about what a Labour government would do once in power in order to garner votes ? Of course |
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Post by ptarmigan on May 5, 2023 23:24:13 GMT
It perhaps shouldn't come as a great shock at this point but it's worth pointing out how badly the Conservatives are doing in their South Eastern heartlands. As of today they retain control of:
1 council in Surrey
2 councils in Kent
0 councils in East/West Sussex
0 councils in Berkshire
0 councils in Oxfordshire
1 council in Hertfordshire
(and in the South West 1 council in Devon)
And look at some of the places where they're losing and the scale of the losses - Bracknell Forest, Windsor & Maidenhead, Chichester, Horsham, Wealden, Lewes etc. The Tory brand has, I think, become truly toxic.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 23:30:04 GMT
So are you saying that Starmer is lying to the electorate about what a Labour government would do once in power in order to garner votes ? Politics without being at the very least economical with the truth is not politics. Having wishlists of policies is one thing. Fighting to actually obtain power to be in a position to implement any change at all is very different. It's brutal and necessarily so, especially when you have enemies like the tories and the right wing press. As I recall it was Tony Blair who said after the '97 election " I know well what this country has voted for today. It is a mandate for New Labour and I say to the people of this country — we ran for office as New Labour, we will govern as New Labour. "
If that is the platform Labour gets elected on then it will have no option but to govern on that basis.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 23:30:25 GMT
There haven't been any polls suggesting 70% of voters in Scotland want independence. It has hovered around 50/50 since 2014 - currently 'No' is ahead. I was using that as a hypothetical example. I want independence but at the moment there is no majority for it. Personally I think the Scottish parliament should have the right to call a referendum on any manifesto committed constitutional matter but should have the sense to only have one when there is polling to suggest it was desired by a majority The irony here is that people voted to stay in the ref in an arrangement in which the SNP didn’t necessarily have the final say as to whether there was another referendum. This may in turn have allowed people who didn’t want another referendum to feel able to vote SNP for other reasons. You can’t necessarily assume a vote for a party represents utter agreement with everything they put in their manifesto.* And if it was guaranteed that SNP would be able to enact referenda whenever, it’s possible they might not have got as many votes in the first place. * it can also be the other way around: people may agree with much in a manifesto, but reject it for some particular key reason. For example, some people may have liked a number of Corbyn’s economic policies, but perhaps for some of those, his stance on NATO etc. overshadowed all that. (Some seemed to have particular issue with him looking like a geography lecturer). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 23:33:54 GMT
Not long ago people used to give Tories stick for not being the most truthful. But when some other parties do that, it’s just politics apparently.
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 23:48:41 GMT
So are you saying that Starmer is lying to the electorate about what a Labour government would do once in power in order to garner votes ? Politics without being at the very least economical with the truth is not politics. Having wishlists of policies is one thing. Fighting to actually obtain power to be in a position to implement any change at all is very different. It's brutal and necessarily so, especially when you have enemies like the tories and the right wing press. So Josef Goebbels had a good point ! 'The Big Lie.' |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 5, 2023 23:57:29 GMT
I'm often appreciative of your political insights, but that is historically inaccurate (as well as being partisan crap). For most of my adult life, Scots voters did precisely what you suggest, and got sod all in terms of self-government and a succession of Tory governments.
What brought about the welcome (but wholly reversible by a Westminster government) introduction of legislative devolution came about because Labour was scared shitless that without their squad of tame MPs from Scotland, they would have insufficient MPs to impose their wishes on Middle England.
It would, no doubt, please many in England if "these bloody Celts would just shut up and do as they are told". That is, essentially, what you are saying would be best for Scots.
As polling has long suggested, most Scots (whatever their views on the continuance of the UK) would prefer that there was a Labour PM in Downing St rather than a Tory one. I can well understand that, currently, many will simply see removing this corrupt Tory administration as the top priority, but there isn't a single indication that Starmer would enable any better governance of/in Scotland than a moderate Tory PM (which is what he seems likely to be). I want to see the Tories removed at Westminster and kept out. To the extent that the SNP are an obstacle to that they need to be defeated. I don't trust the SNP to be a reliable anti-Conservative force because their purpose is independence for Scotland not good UK wide and devolved governance. That is a perfectly reasonable and legitimate objective from their point of view, but not my priority.
You want to have a Labour government in England, no matter how indistinguishable it would be from what used to be a mainstream Tory government. That's fine. But why are you so insistent that Scots have to vote in the interests of your particular bit of the English political range?
When you say "UK wide" you don't actually mean what is best for those in Scotland (or probably even in Northern England). Even if Scots would be better off politically, financially and morally by being independent of the UK, you would still oppose it because it would cause you problems.
I quite understand that you wish to continue the long and inglorious tradition of imperialism that your country embarked on (and mine ingloriously joined in with) but it really isn't all about you and what you need.
When Churchill rabbited on about the glories of the British Empire, and the benefits to it of everyone remaining under the rule of Westminster, he wasn't talking about the benefits to those in India, South Africa or Kenya, but about the wealth and power it gave to the UK. You really aren't that much different.
I don't expect the best interests of Scots to be your priority. I do expect at least a smidgeon of understanding from you that don't actually care much about them at all. Why you expect Scots to prioritise your interests would be inexplicable to a rational observer. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2023 0:04:02 GMT
It does seem to be a thing with the Labour party that their sense of entitlement to left of centre votes means they have great difficulty with the notion that opposition to a Conservative government can manifest itself in ways other than support for a Labour government.
It is not at all clear that the SNP are in opposition to Conservative government. They actively enabled it in 1979 and 2019 because they thought it would aid their cause. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2023 0:15:40 GMT
The First Minister had no mandate to say this. It was his personal opinion. Incorrect. It was included in the official Scottish Government documentation "Scotland's Future". As I have said before, my personal opinion is that Brexit created a good case for a second referendum earlier, as it represented a fundamental change from the situation in 2014.
Of course, even if Salmond had said what graham and numerous other BritNats claimed he did, it would still have been the position of a particular government at a particular time.
It is one of the wonderful nonsenses of Westminster based parties that only in that august centre of democracy, can the views of former leaders be disowned. Elsewhere, any remark is written on tablets of stone and no subsequent leaders can take a stance different from that their predecessors is imagined to have taken.
Pathetic British gibberish, I'm afraid. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2023 4:52:46 GMT
When Churchill rabbited on about the glories of the British Empire, and the benefits to it of everyone remaining under the rule of Westminster, he wasn't talking about the benefits to those in India, South Africa or Kenya, but about the wealth and power it gave to the UK. You really aren't that much different. Actually i think Churchill would have said every nation was better off ruled by britain. And considering what happened to many of them since, he had a point. One lesson of history is that in disunity lies poverty. I think scotland could improve its position by leaving the uk, but much better if it does so and joins the eu immediately instead. Its not clear what happens if it just becomes a tiny independent state. A likely initial step is fall in general wealth. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2023 5:00:16 GMT
An interesting set of results. Real progress for Labour and the Greens. Well done. The platform is built for 2024. More tomorrow, take care. Support for the Greens - and the LDs - tends to be 'easy come easy go'- ie generally pretty soft and lacking in firm commitment. Although people talk about Labour areas and conservative areas, do you really believe people there think so very different? If similar people are delivering huge lib swings in some places and huge lab swings in others, not to mention green or snp, then it suggests said people don't care much for any of them. Lab must not believe voters truly like them better, they dont. Polling doesnt ask if you like a party, only if you intend to vote for it. |
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Post by moby on May 6, 2023 5:24:25 GMT
I want to see the Tories removed at Westminster and kept out. To the extent that the SNP are an obstacle to that they need to be defeated. I don't trust the SNP to be a reliable anti-Conservative force because their purpose is independence for Scotland not good UK wide and devolved governance. That is a perfectly reasonable and legitimate objective from their point of view, but not my priority.
You want to have a Labour government in England, no matter how indistinguishable it would be from what used to be a mainstream Tory government. That's fine. But why are you so insistent that Scots have to vote in the interests of your particular bit of the English political range?
When you say "UK wide" you don't actually mean what is best for those in Scotland (or probably even in Northern England). Even if Scots would be better off politically, financially and morally by being independent of the UK, you would still oppose it because it would cause you problems.
I quite understand that you wish to continue the long and inglorious tradition of imperialism that your country embarked on (and mine ingloriously joined in with) but it really isn't all about you and what you need.
When Churchill rabbited on about the glories of the British Empire, and the benefits to it of everyone remaining under the rule of Westminster, he wasn't talking about the benefits to those in India, South Africa or Kenya, but about the wealth and power it gave to the UK. You really aren't that much different.
I don't expect the best interests of Scots to be your priority. I do expect at least a smidgeon of understanding from you that don't actually care much about them at all. Why you expect Scots to prioritise your interests would be inexplicable to a rational observer.It's not imperialism to believe that the best interests of peoples on this island are virtually the same. Llafur and Labour look towards the interests of everyone on this island. It is possible to be both Welsh and British at the same time. The SNPs focus on what's in the best interests of Scots is self centred imo and has detrimental consequences for the rest of us. We should all be pulling in the same direction to benefit all of us not just prioritising our own polity. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2023 5:43:26 GMT
What we have just seen is a clear indication of the unravelling of the '19 Tory electoral coalition. Sunak aint Johnson, and Labour are winning back the support of Leave inclined 'traditional' Labour voters who had deserted the party for UKIP and/or the Tories over the past decade - while still retaining the majority of its own remain, socially liberal base. I dont think it has anything to do with Sunak. He seems to be crawling back to the same level of support johnson had before the truss disaster. Yes it is about the collapse of the alliance with the brexit block. Not only because brexit happened but because it is going badly. Without that block con would have lost in 2010, never mind 2015 or later. Cons position as a middle of the road broad support party is a lot worse now than in 2010 when cameron had spent time rehabilitating it. However, theres not much indication of a wave of enthusiasm for labour either of the sort Blair managed to create. Hmm. Havnt examined results one by one comparing share of established also ran parties as compared to the main challenger, this time round. But having said that, FPP always favours whoever was in second place last time, and thats exactly the pattern of these results. Fpp is all about tactical voting and not about love of one party. What we have seen is remarkable success by libs and now indeed greens and independants considering we have fpp. How did they supplant lab at all? But there is still very clear evidence of massive tactical voting. There is little here to show anyone really likes labour except as better than con just now. They still have a massive fpp advantage in terms of being second placed last time most commonly, but that continues to erode. What will be interesting is whether libs can repeat or better cleggs total of mps when the election finally arrives. Thus far lab has no message to galvanise support as did Blair or even Corbyn. Corbyn was probably correct, labour could have become a mass support left wing and winning party. But not with the right of the party actively working to prevent this happening, because frankly they want a right wing government. One selling point of libs has always been they offer genuinely left wing policies. Fpp has left us a legacy of parties which try to be all things to everyone which as a result no one likes. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2023 5:48:50 GMT
It's not imperialism to believe that the best interests of people's on this island are virtually the same. Llafur and Labour look towards the interests of everyone on this island. It is possible to be both Welsh and British at the same time. The SNPs focus on what's in the best interests of Scots is self centred imo and has detrimental consequences for the rest of us. We should all be pulling in the same direction to benefit all of us not just prioritising our own polity. its not imperialism to believe that the best interests of people in all europe are virtually the same. However scotland would clearly benefit from being part of a much looser federation like the eu than the uk. |
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Post by statgeek on May 6, 2023 6:07:22 GMT
We should all be pulling in the same direction to benefit all of us not just prioritising our own polity. I agree. We should all push to break up the UK. All the polities of it would benefit in the long run. They'd all be forced to work with one another, rather than some of them run roughshod over the others. Or did you suggest that "pulling in the same direction" means you want your bit of it to do well, while others languish? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2023 6:39:38 GMT
Look look over there it's a shiny thing.  |
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2023 6:56:46 GMT
Thanks Shevii,
''Not bad jimjam. I'll remember to add in a factor for your pessimism next time :-)
Actual result:
Lab 25
Con 14
GRN 7
LD 3
Ind 1''
Actual result is Lab 24, Con 15 and still wrong this morning on the BBC, maybe they have others wrong as well.
We took all the ones I expected and 2 bonus ones.
The gains from 2019 are 4 plus retaking one we lost in a By-Election in 2021 before partygate emerged.
We took one by 30 that was the best result of the day for me and missed out on 1 more by 11 votes; that would have been a third seat in a ward but the incumbent Tory held on.
I did expect that to happen and be a 2/1 ward due to some personal vote for the Tory but 11 votes was much closer than anticipated.
The Greens took 2 off the Tories which I got wrong and a strong independent just failing to dislodge a Tory was my other incorrect prediction.
We didn't campaign in those 2 wards and I had no real insight or data so my calls were best guesses at best so not surprised by either tbh.
I need to look over the figures at some point but even in the comfortable retentions the margins are ahead of what national swing suggested.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2023 6:57:06 GMT
moby - "We should all be pulling in the same direction to benefit all of us not just prioritising our own polity." Fine sentiments, but inappropriate, I think, for a UK with such twisted, defective constitution that enables perhaps 40% of voters in the largest polity to have total authority over everyone else. You are basically dreaming of some form of compromise, where a negotiated collective will is determined between four separate polities and each of the voting groups within those four, but the UK constitution is incapable of working effectively to define what that collective will should be. It needs breaking apart, possibly rebuilt as a federal system, and then, yes, we could all learn to pull in the same direction.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2023 7:13:42 GMT
I want to see the Tories removed at Westminster and kept out. To the extent that the SNP are an obstacle to that they need to be defeated. I don't trust the SNP to be a reliable anti-Conservative force because their purpose is independence for Scotland not good UK wide and devolved governance. That is a perfectly reasonable and legitimate objective from their point of view, but not my priority.
You want to have a Labour government in England, no matter how indistinguishable it would be from what used to be a mainstream Tory government. That's fine. But why are you so insistent that Scots have to vote in the interests of your particular bit of the English political range?
When you say "UK wide" you don't actually mean what is best for those in Scotland (or probably even in Northern England). Even if Scots would be better off politically, financially and morally by being independent of the UK, you would still oppose it because it would cause you problems.
I quite understand that you wish to continue the long and inglorious tradition of imperialism that your country embarked on (and mine ingloriously joined in with) but it really isn't all about you and what you need.
When Churchill rabbited on about the glories of the British Empire, and the benefits to it of everyone remaining under the rule of Westminster, he wasn't talking about the benefits to those in India, South Africa or Kenya, but about the wealth and power it gave to the UK. You really aren't that much different.
I don't expect the best interests of Scots to be your priority. I do expect at least a smidgeon of understanding from you that don't actually care much about them at all. Why you expect Scots to prioritise your interests would be inexplicable to a rational observer.As is typical, you misrepresent people to fit your narrow definition of politics where the only political identities are "Scottish Nationalist" (or Welsh or Irish) or "British Nationalist". I don't want the "bloody celts" to "shut up and do as they are told". I have no desire to tell anyone how to vote nor any ability to make them do so. Every vote has to be campaigned for hard in a democracy, Scottish ones as much as English. But it is simply a statement of fact that a vote for the Conservatives in Scotland is a vote for a Conservative government UK wide; a vote for Labour is a vote for a non-Conservative government UK wide; and a vote for the SNP is a vote for a party that will prioritise Scottish independence and would be happy to put the Conservatives in power if it helps that cause. That is the reality. It is amusing that you accuse others of partisanship when you are one of the most partisan posters on this site. I fully expect a lot of anti-Labour propaganda for the next year or so - and I understand why, it makes sense in a Scottish political context. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2023 7:23:03 GMT
Re final seat tallies. The BBC is currently one Council short - Redcar and Cleveland - because one ward there is being recounted and will not report until next Tuesday. However, the rest of the results for the Council are available and if you assume that the missing ward is 'no change' the national (English!) figures would become:
Lab 2696 (+543), Con 2313 (-1058), Lib Dem 1637 (+403), Green 481 (+241), Ind & Oth 975 (-88)
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2023 7:23:11 GMT
Off to Northumberland for a week now, renting an isolated old coastguard cottage in Low Newton by the Sea. Despite a poor weather forecast, Mrs H and I are greatly looking forward to doing some walking along the wild and often deserted Northumbrian coastline. Coves, dunes and vast strands. Just about our favourite part of England now, and only relatively recently discovered by us too.
I will navigate a road journey mainly through old Tory heartlands now turned wastelands by Thursday's glorious carnage. My choice of route will be manifold!
On our return journey, should we go close to Barnards Castle, I may meet up with an old spinster of this parish. The morose dogster and former minstrel, Paul Croft.
I've enjoyed my brief return to the site and the resumption of badinage with you all. This site works at its best, and comes truly alive, with the fizz and buzz of elections. I hear there may be another one of sorts next year. That could be interesting.
I may drop in again from time to time, but I have a Cup Final to try and get a ticket for, plus canals to tend to. Villa's end of season run-in looks tasty and there's cricket too.
Adieu for now and all the best to one and all.
(eor - I saw your note and I will update you on my FA Cup odyssey once completed. It's been quite a journey and there are many tales to tell. The finale yet to come.)
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Post by moby on May 6, 2023 7:31:21 GMT
We should all be pulling in the same direction to benefit all of us not just prioritising our own polity. I agree. We should all push to break up the UK. All the polities of it would benefit in the long run. They'd all be forced to work with one another, rather than some of them run roughshod over the others. Or did you suggest that "pulling in the same direction" means you want your bit of it to do well, while others languish? I'm saying the former; there needs to be far more discussion about what breaking up the UK as it stands now would look like i.e the nature of it, (federalism, devolution) etc. Llafur has introduced a national plan for Wales looking at options. The centralised arrogance of Westminster does need to change but there is more than one way to reach this goal. Llafur has always been able to sideline Plaid Cymru in Wales by placing Welsh interests within an internationalist context while keeping in check the excesses of the nationalist narratives. One thing I've been struck by on returning to live in Wales after 30 years working in London is how different it is both culturally and politically on one level but I can still cross the border without a passport. It's possible to have common goals regarding our future while keeping a distinct identity. That is why I totally believe in the EU and would like to see a federal Europe. |
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2023 7:32:55 GMT
CB, pop in to Labour run Darlington on the way to meet Crofty :-)
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Post by moby on May 6, 2023 7:34:15 GMT
moby - "We should all be pulling in the same direction to benefit all of us not just prioritising our own polity." Fine sentiments, but inappropriate, I think, for a UK with such twisted, defective constitution that enables perhaps 40% of voters in the largest polity to have total authority over everyone else. You are basically dreaming of some form of compromise, where a negotiated collective will is determined between four separate polities and each of the voting groups within those four, but the UK constitution is incapable of working effectively to define what that collective will should be. It needs breaking apart, possibly rebuilt as a federal system, and then, yes, we could all learn to pull in the same direction. See my reply to statgeek . Llafur's achievements in Wales tend to be ignored on here. I know compared to the English and the Scots we are an even smaller polity and if anyone has been 'run roughshod over the years it has been us actually but despite this Llafur I'd say is probably the most successful political party in the UK and the Tories may be left with just on MP (Montgomeryshire) at the next election. Nothing about that in the commentary of course, the narrative is all about the relationship between the SNP and Labour should Labour not get a sufficient majority in England. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 6, 2023 7:47:03 GMT
Not long ago people used to give Tories stick for not being the most truthful. But when some other parties do that, it’s just politics apparently. LAB folks seem split between those who like Starmer's 'U-turns' (breaking almost all of the 10 pledges made to become leader of LAB) and those who hope he'll do 'O' turns once in power. The 'O' being a 2nd 'U-turn' back to where he was in Jan'20. TBC but the Green's surprised in the LEs and with no party standing on the 'Left' then the assumption that Green voters will back LAB in a GE might be a risky one to make. |
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We may be stuck with the bastards for a little while longer but everything feels a bit brighter tonight. 
