steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2023 21:53:16 GMT
"His maternal grandfather was an armed robber who spent time in prison," I wonder if he knew my paternal grandfather, or much of the rest of the family for that matter! Meanwhile the Tories appear to have learned nothing from Spaffer about lying in parliament. youtu.be/BKqEsiNtu8g |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2023 21:57:40 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 5, 2023 21:57:55 GMT
You’re not far off the mark at all there, PJ! (Though it seems to blame all of them in the last 13 years). As the article continues… “ The cult of the NHS, the woke takeover, the return of socialism, eco-insanity: all are worse since 2010” p.s. thought I would quote the bit on the NHS for you: ” The bizarre service for the NHS, a shamefully sub-par health system by international standards, is the ultimate symbol of 13 wasted Tory years. Tony Blair, for all his faults, was more supportive of market reforms, more “Right-wing” on the NHS than this Government ever was. The Tories’ only solution has been low-grade managerialism combined with an attempt at out-Lefting the Left, pumping billions into the NHS, and turning our erstwhile national secular religion into a veritable cult.
Even though outcomes remain terrible, they have refused to make any case for moving towards a European-style public-private system. They don’t realise that the NHS is a poison pill for conservatism, guaranteeing an ever-larger state and ever-higher taxes. The new workplace plan would see the number of NHS employees increase from 1.4 million (5 per cent of workers) to 2.3 million (8 per cent); either the private sector would have to shrink or huge extra immigration would be required. The Left-wing economist Jonathan Portes estimates that direct spending by and on the NHS would rise from 7.5 per cent of GDP to 11 per cent. All of this is before the social care plan. Toryism and classical liberalism are doomed if the NHS is preserved for much longer*. The same is true of the failure to release more land for building, a central reason why so many under-40s now back Labour. We need at least 500,000 new homes a year, something our 1940s planning regime can’t deliver.” * (they say that like it’s a bad thing) Wow, so many untruths in so few words. To take just the final sentence - how can a "1940s planning regime" be responsible for stopping house building when there were vastly more houses built in the 1950s (i.e. post the Town and Country Planning Act) than there are now? The answer of course is that in the 1950s governments let councils build vast numbers of council houses for affordable rent, a sector Thatcher deliberately destroyed in the 1980s for explicitly party political reasons. You never know, if ChatGPT and successors diminish the careers of the journos and other related jobs, as some argue, then he and few others might find something a bit more socialist a tad more appealing? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 5, 2023 21:59:41 GMT
oldnat "I agree that, since Flynn made those comments in May, the likelihood of England not installing a majority Labour government is much reduced." Labour's GB lead was averaging 16% when he made those comments, as opposed to 19% now, so really not much has changed. I think that the odds for a hung parliament have become very slightly longer. I picked up on his comments at the time (15 May, page 82 of this thread) and offered much the same coments then..... "May 15, 2023 at 11:35am neilj, moby, and 5 more like thisQuoteEditlikePost OptionsPost by James E on May 15, 2023 at 11:35am "Flynn said: "It's increasingly clear that the SNP can hold the balance of power after the next general election - putting Scotland in prime position to pull the strings of a minority UK government." It looks to me like this is another of those judgements based on UNS - and the false narrative that Labour need a lead of 13% in the overall vote to form a majority. My own claculations suggest that the point that Labour can get an overall majority is around 4% lead - such as 39/35. Electoral Calculus suggests a little lower with tactical voting. I am working on an assumption of just 5-10 Lab MPS in Scotland: the same dynamics which show Labour doing far better than UNS in England on current polling also suggest that they would underperform against the SNP in Scotland unless they can draw level in Scottish vote share with them."
In the former scenario, Scotland would have no effective influence over UK policy anyway, while in the latter some positive influence might be exerted. As always, it's the English electorate that will decide matters. All that Scotland can hope for, in the UK, is to exert some pressure when the opportunity arises. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 22:02:55 GMT
Maybe Jenrick would prefer the mural to display Shere Khan instead! He would rather that than Sadiq Khan, I shouldn't wonder. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2023 22:10:10 GMT
Anyone know what Ollie's meant to have done? He's obviously upset a lot of folk as I'm seeing all these protestors waving 'Just Stop Ollie' banners, and I'm starting to feel a touch sorry for him. Had my optician's appointment today. That was interesting. He upset the Aussies. It must be them protesting. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2023 22:12:30 GMT
Oldnat with his interest in the exact constitutional status of the these islands (and woe betide anyone who forgets) would point out that Matt Le Tissier, being from Guernsey, is not properly English, so perhaps he shouldn't have played for England anyway. Fine footballer, potty political views.
It's rather poor taste to ascribe false attitudes to other posters, simply because you disagree with them politically - but that seems to be how you want to act.Good grief. It was just a mild joke about your pedantic tendency to keep reminding us that the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the UK, but separate 'polities' in this archipelago in which we live. You really could manage to pick a fight in an empty room. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2023 22:14:39 GMT
News said there was some chanting of 'not our king' along the procession route. Another load of loonies not living in the real world. Whether they like it or not he is their king. They can pretend all they like. I blame video games. 😁 |
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2023 22:17:20 GMT
Another headline in the Telegraph: Thirteen years of Tory failure have shifted Britain radically to the Left
If only that were true!  Mind you the Torygraph probably thinks Sunak is a socialist. Isn't he? All those free handouts during Covid and the fuel price increases? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2023 22:21:17 GMT
If only that were true! Mind you the Torygraph probably thinks Sunak is a socialist. Isn't he? All those free handouts during Covid and the fuel price increases? No he isn't. And giving 'handouts' isn't socialism. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 22:22:54 GMT
Sky News reporting that the Chris Pincher report due tomorrow could be recommending a 6-week suspension for him. Not quite Boris Johnson territory, but pretty sobering, nonetheless. Yet another by-election likely on the cards?
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Post by graham on Jul 5, 2023 22:38:02 GMT
So Flynn is predicting that Labour will be short of a majority. Anyone who believes this should be able to make some money on the betting markets, where a Labour majority ( and that means 326 seats or more) is priced at around 4/9 on. 'No overall majority' is priced at 5/2. www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majorityThis is because the large Labour leads in GB polling, and the patterns in regional and other detailed data suggest that Labour would get a majority on around a 4-5% lead, even if the SNP remains the largest party in Scotland, which I believe it probably will. For what it's worth, the kind of result which would (in my opinion) enable the SNP to hold the balance of power would be something close to parity between Con and Lab: probably from a 3% Con lead to a 2% Lab lead, as with anything more than that a Lab+LD deal of some sort would probably be viable. I agree that, since Flynn made those comments in May, the likelihood of England not installing a majority Labour government is much reduced. It also means that the incentive to vote SLab "to get the Tories out" is reduced. In marginal constituencies, how the crucial component of the electorate - supporters of both "Devo Max" and Independence - react to Labour's plans and actions in office may be crucial. Unsurprisingly, faith in politicians has taken a severe knock over the last few years, but worth noting that "Scottish voters believe Humza Yousaf would be a better First Minister for Scotland than either Douglas Ross or Anas Sarwar. Yousaf (41%, –) leads Ross (28%, +1) by 13 points, while Yousaf (37%, +1) also leads Sarwar (26%, -3) by 11 points." (R&W) I suspect that voters in Scotland will have become even keener ' to join the party' by voting Labour to eject the Tories. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2023 22:38:59 GMT
News said there was some chanting of 'not our king' along the procession route. Another load of loonies not living in the real world. Whether they like it or not he is their king. They can pretend all they like. I blame video games. 😁 He's the ceremonial head of state of the United Kingdom not their king or anyone's king.It's perfectly rational in 2023 to object to him fulfilling that role and not to revere him or have any emotional attachment to him or to the institution he represents. Feeling some kind of fealty and deference to an aged man you've never met seems more reflective of non reality to me. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 22:41:39 GMT
Good on both protesters and Scottish police for letting them protest. Re mercian claiming he IS “their” king, I think that’s a moot point. I have no time for him, certainly wouldn’t be bowing in the unlikely event he turns up in Barnard Castle and - to me - he’s just another bloke and, seemingly, a bit of an odd one at that. If people don’t regard him as their “king” then he’s not. It’s not like saying to a policeman who’s arresting you that you don’t regard him as a policeman, because he bloody well is. OTOH Charles’ position is symbolic, it’s not exactly a proper job is it? The monarchy, the house of lords and FPTP voting system all need to go if this country is to be dragged into the modern world. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2023 22:43:29 GMT
Tamworth
One for Labour
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2023 22:44:19 GMT
I hate the word 'polity', it's generally used to accentuate division, to exclude. Feel better having got that off my chest..
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2023 22:46:53 GMT
Good on both protesters and Scottish police for letting them protest. Re mercian claiming he IS “their” king, I think that’s a moot point. I have no time for him, certainly wouldn’t be bowing in the unlikely event he turns up in Barnard Castle and - to me - he’s just another bloke and, seemingly, a bit of an odd one at that. If people don’t regard him as their “king” then he’s not. It’s not like saying to a policeman who’s arresting you that you don’t regard him as a policeman, because he bloody well is. OTOH Charles’ position is symbolic, it’s not exactly a proper job is it? The monarchy, the house of lords and FPTP voting system all need to go if this country is to be dragged into the modern world. Or a reformed, pared down monarchy such as that of the Netherlands. The other two should have gone a long time ago. |
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Post by eor on Jul 5, 2023 23:21:50 GMT
Matt Le Tissier had a tweet the other day about Britain turning into a communist country although I couldn't work out what his theory for this was! It's a shame he did end up playing for England as I liked the song "you'll never play for England", just as it was a shame that Teddy Sheringham did end up winning everything at Man United to ruin the song about how Teddy went to Man United and he won *** all. the Sky Blues ruined the Python joke when they won the cup too. youtu.be/vZ9myHhpS9sMind you, they had their own ground in those days… Interested what you make of having Mike Ashley as landlord now? Do you think he's in it for the long haul and having a fairly hefty stadium/hotel/casino base in the middle of England is a thing he rather fancies, or do you reckon he's gambled you'll get back to the PL and he can walk away with an enormous cheque, a kind of ultimate squatter's payoff? |
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Post by lens on Jul 5, 2023 23:23:23 GMT
Fascinating article, and pertinent for the discussions around health care reform - www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02130-6Turns out the NHS contact tracing app worked OK, but that governments and the WHO have declined to adopt the learning. Rubbish! Read the "fascinating article" and you see the following: "We set out to develop a decentralized system....... One of these systems was the DP3T protocol2, which I helped to develop at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL), along with engineers, computer scientists and legal experts at other universities."
My emphases! No wonder he praises and defends the app - it's written by someone who was partly responsible for it's creation!! "Vested interest" and "bias" are words that come to my mind! "Worked OK" depends on your criteria. It may have done technically what it was engineered for - whether it gave value for money is a completely different matter. Nowhere in that article do I see one of the most important criteria - if a given person received a ping, how likely were they to subsequently develop an infection? Finding an exact figure is difficult, not least because it varied from area to area, and throughout the period the app was in use, but elsewhere I believe the best that was found was only about 5% of cases. Which is hardly very good. For every 20 pings, at least 19 were a false alarm. It's actually worse than even that seems. Of that 5%, some would have been warned anyway by other means - test and trace or simply awareness of illness of a family member. Statistically, if you were to select 100 people randomly during the pandemic you may expect a few to show infection within a few days by sheer probability. As for "cases averted and lives saved", then I believe they are making some pretty optimistic assumptions. Most notably that cases may never have been fully "averted" but rather delayed. (May prevent a transmission in one month - but that person becoming infected a couple of months later.) Likewise ignoring cases averted (delayed) because of a T&T notification or simply realising a family member is ill. What that report describes as "media attention, and much criticism" was in fact well founded. In various organisations staff were told to disable it at work - management being well aware that unchecked it was causing so much absenteeism that problems were outweighing benefits. Eventually the "pingdemic" happened and the problems couldn't be ignored by government and it was quietly pulled. Those in the know were only too well aware of the harm it was causing. Not that such could be publicly said. Just why was it so ineffective? Firstly because radio waves can travel through some walls etc where viruses can't. The app was incapable of knowing if the handshake happened in open air or an enclosed space, likewise whether the people concerned were facing each other or back to back. No alec, the app did not "work OK" for all the reasons above. It certainly didn't give value for the large sums of money spent on it. Not that I'd expect anyone who worked on it's development (and presumably got well paid?) to admit such? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 5, 2023 23:26:40 GMT
I'm unclear as to what you mean by "properly English", and I wouldn't make such an nativist comment anyway - happy to leave that to you. In Le Tissier's case, the constitutional status of these islands is irrelevant. It's the FIFA rules which matter. Guernsey doesn't have an official FIFA national team, which made Le Tissier eligible to play for England, due to residence.
It's rather poor taste to ascribe false attitudes to other posters, simply because you disagree with them politically - but that seems to be how you want to act. Good grief. It was just a mild joke about your pedantic tendency to keep reminding us that the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the UK, but separate 'polities' in this archipelago in which we live. You really could manage to pick a fight in an empty room.
Still, for you to so completely dismiss such concerns so as to make a "mild joke", as you call it, about them is somewhat reminiscent of the 1970's racist/sexist comedians complaining that black people, women, the Irish - or whoever was the victim of their bigotry - "couldn't take a joke".
Being needlessly offensive isn't a mark of a reasonable person, and your comment was both needless and offensive. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2023 23:33:13 GMT
Another load of loonies not living in the real world. Whether they like it or not he is their king. They can pretend all they like. I blame video games. 😁 He's the ceremonial head of state of the United Kingdom not their king or anyone's king.It's perfectly rational in 2023 to object to him fulfilling that role and not to revere him or have any emotional attachment to him or to the institution he represents. Feeling some kind of fealty and deference to an aged man you've never met seems more reflective of non reality to me. He's the king of the UK, Australia and various other places. I understand that some people don't like that, and there is no obligation to show deference or to revere him or have any emotional attachment. I don't have a great deal myself. But it is a fact that he is our king. The clue is in the name. This is part of his title as announced at his mother's funeral: "Charles III, now, by the Grace of God, of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of His other Realms and Territories King," Denying facts seems to be the latest fashion. e.g. flat earthers and people thinking that they magically change sex by dressing up. |
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Post by eor on Jul 5, 2023 23:35:27 GMT
Good grief. It was just a mild joke about your pedantic tendency to keep reminding us that the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the UK, but separate 'polities' in this archipelago in which we live. You really could manage to pick a fight in an empty room.
Would it be pedantry to suggest you were perhaps wrong about claiming Le Tissier qualified for England on residency grounds? Given Guernsey's status I believe he actually had a free choice of playing for any of England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 5, 2023 23:35:36 GMT
I agree that, since Flynn made those comments in May, the likelihood of England not installing a majority Labour government is much reduced. It also means that the incentive to vote SLab "to get the Tories out" is reduced. In marginal constituencies, how the crucial component of the electorate - supporters of both "Devo Max" and Independence - react to Labour's plans and actions in office may be crucial. Unsurprisingly, faith in politicians has taken a severe knock over the last few years, but worth noting that "Scottish voters believe Humza Yousaf would be a better First Minister for Scotland than either Douglas Ross or Anas Sarwar. Yousaf (41%, –) leads Ross (28%, +1) by 13 points, while Yousaf (37%, +1) also leads Sarwar (26%, -3) by 11 points." (R&W) I suspect that voters in Scotland will have become even keener ' to join the party' by voting Labour to eject the Tories.
Of course, false arguments do sometimes work in politics, as the Brexit campaign amply demonstrated, so some voters in Scotland will be seduced by Labour's specious argument. |
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Post by eor on Jul 5, 2023 23:40:27 GMT
Let’s nuke them before they get any ideas.  All the money was spent on aircraft carriers. They are really great to stop a Russian tank invasion. If the Russians are in a position to launch a tank invasion of the UK, haven't they de facto already won? Building UK conventional forces with the aim of being able to resist a Russian land invasion from occupied Europe seems a level of fantasy that even the more Churchillian Tories would spot the problem with? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 5, 2023 23:43:01 GMT
I understand that many living in England are somewhat vague about what the terms British Isles, UK, GB, and England represent. It's not exactly pedantry to remind such people of the differences between them.
Would it be pedantry to suggest you were perhaps wrong about claiming Le Tissier qualified for England on residency grounds? Given Guernsey's status I believe he actually had a free choice of playing for any of England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland. |
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Post by eor on Jul 5, 2023 23:58:23 GMT
I hate the word 'polity', it's generally used to accentuate division, to exclude. Feel better having got that off my chest.. I thought it was a bit of an affectation at first, but have come to find it useful on here - it avoids the vulture tedium of how to collectively refer to Wales/England/Scotland/NI without listing them all for a start. But it also works for talking about specific aspects of politics across other places where terms like "state", "country", "nation", "region" etc may all have different specific political meanings. COVID was an obvious case but it works in a lot of other areas as a decent shorthand for "the level of government that holds the power on this particular issue". |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 6, 2023 0:12:31 GMT
The confusion as to the political geographies of the UK is rather obvious in the activities and output of UKGov agencies.
For example, the UK Health Security Agency - which has been excoriated by the HoC Public Accounts Committee -
is actually not a "UK" agency at all, but one restricted primarily (possibly totally) to England [1]
The UKHSA website explains its limited geographical activities -
www.gov.uk/guidance/contacts-phe-regions-and-local-centres
For the really, really, geographically challenged, the regions listed are all in only one of the 4 NHS systems in the UK - yet it's called UKHSA. Why?
[1] That's why the term "polity" is so useful - even though it offends British Unity advocates. It describes the particular geographic area of political activity in which something operates.
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Post by expatr on Jul 6, 2023 0:18:54 GMT
I think you can rest easy. I was reading that to switch NHS to a continental style system would take two decades at least. As we both know, no English politician is going to propose such a heresy to insular voters brainwashed into believing that the NHS is the best there is to keep them well . Thanks for your notes on Streeting. He is obviously to the right of your good self-which is OK by me . Yes budding ( and acting !) Health Secretaries open their mouths too often before understanding their task. But that in itself is a sign for me that the thing is too big to be managed in this narrow top down way. Its a joke really. I expect Streeting will do his best-and like all his predecessors end up with a desk covered in sticking plaster. No need to be brain washed Mr snide, it was doing good until your mob got there dirty grifting hands on it. This is correct. There is a plausible argument that pound for pound the NHS was the highest performing health system in a major developed economy in 2010. And a very strong argument that it was the most improved. It is now a basketcase.
And having been in the middle of some of what was going on in 2010 and 2011 defining what happened as a smash and grab raid aimed at defunding, demoralisation and removal of competent leaders in order to lead to, ultimately, privatisation (and it was only stopped - to their credit- by the Lib Dems - although this was the old SDP-types in the Lords rather than Clegg and his orange bookers) is pretty accurate. Some of the behaviour I personally witnessed ranged from deranged 23 year old ideologues overruling experts with 40 years of experience and a track record of success to straightforward corruption (of a type that was a dry run for PPE)
As someone who has literally spent 30 years working in the administration of very different health systems across three continents, I am pretty convinced that, provided they are properly funded, universally available free (or nearly free) at the point of use services outperform other models, and those that are tax funded tend to be more efficient than those that are based on insurance schemes. The paradoxical weakness of tax funded systems is that they are easier for governments to underfund.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 6, 2023 4:49:41 GMT
Two local government by-elections today
KENT CC; Maidstone Central (LD died)
Candidates:
COLLIER, David (Labour)
FORECAST, Stanley Edward (Conservative)
JARVIS, Graham Alexander (Reform UK)
JEFFERY, Stuart Robert (Green)
KENWARD, Yolande Ann (Independent)
PASSMORE, Chris (Liberal Democrat)
2021: Con 3484 (elected), 2562; LD 2880 (elected), 2207; Lab 1817, 1748; Grn 1389, 1098
Although one of the Conservative candidates topped the poll last time this ward was contested, you would assume in the current climate this should be a Lib Dem hold. Incidentally Yolande Kenward is the same person who stood in the North Shropshire Parliamentary by-election and came bottom of the poll with 3 votes, a new post-1918 low for a parliamentary by-election.
Secondly, the wonderfully compass point challenged - SOUTH LANARKSHIRE UA; East Kilbride West (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
DORRIAN, Bill (Conservative)
EADIE, Cameron (Green)
GILLIES, Robert (SNP)
KEANE, Kristofer (Independent)
RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party)
STEVENSON, Jake (Liberal Democrats)
WILLIAMS, KIrsty (Labour)
The key to this one is the prior first preferences:
2022: Lab 1780 (elected); Con 1339; Ind* 1248 (elected); SNP 1041, 1031 (elected); LD 142; Family 110; UKIP 18
(*Note: The successful independent is an ex-SNP councillor). Although this is an SNP defence, it will be seen the SNP only finished fourth on first preferences last time, when they were more popular than now, so it is hard to see them retaining the seat. Although Labour were top last time, the Conservatives have done very well here in the past, so it may be more of a Lab/Con contest. Presumably since Labour is more popular than the Conservatives everywhere at present, including in Scotland, they should start as favorites to take the seat.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 6, 2023 5:29:52 GMT
Re NHS, lots of talk about alternative funding models, but not much in the way of specifics Obviously I'm talking about England as the RUK will have different systems If they are talking about an extra insurance will there be exemptions If so one imagines it will be in line with prescriptions for England. Worth remembering 90% are free due to exemptionsSo if we have similar exemptions then we will be introducing a whole new layer of bureaucracy and charges which the people who use the NHS 90% of the time won't pay Are you sure about that? When I was in work I always had to pay and assumed that others did too. Absolutely certain, from the UK Government www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age"In England, out of over one billion prescription items dispensed in 2019, close to 90% were dispensed free of charge" Anyone who has spent anytime in the Doctors or Hospital will be aware by far the biggest group that use them are older people.(a whopping two thirds of all items were exempt because the patient was aged 60 years or older). Then children, pregnant women, those with some chronic health conditions etc Now I could be wrong but I can't see any political party going into an election saying they will introduce hundreds if not thousands of pounds in health insurance that pensioners have to pay. Just look at the furore over them having to pay the BBC licence fee If they do introduce health insurance but stick with the current exemptions, as I say 90% of the people who use the health service won't pay it But if some people really think it's a good Idea perhaps the tories could trial it with prescriptions, get rid of all the exemptions and make every one pay including pensioners, you never know it maybe a vote winner... |
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