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Post by pete on May 3, 2023 15:22:41 GMT
I'm not a big fan of people claiming the unproveable claim they'd be happy to be poor as long as they got brexit as brexit really has made some poorer and suffer and after all those brexit promises of riches for the NHS and cheaper food etc.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 3, 2023 15:35:04 GMT
I'm not a big fan of people claiming the unproveable claim they'd be happy to be poor as long as they got brexit as brexit really has made some poorer and suffer and after all those brexit promises of riches for the NHS and cheaper food etc. Indeed. It is heard not from people of working age but from the comfortable retired who were perfectly aware they'd be cushioned from the impacts of their 'lets make Britain what it was like when we were young' game and who, to be blunt, don't give a toss about the impacts on those still working in the economy including I'm afraid often, their own children. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2023 15:36:22 GMT
Yeah by 2019 there had been lots more time for the Blairite and media assault and for Tories to switch to BJ and position themselves more to the left. 2017 was the better chance since it caught some by surprise, to see left wing policies do better than expected, and they did wind up polling more than Tories for a while after the election I think you have made a good comment about the way analysing election results is often done very lazily and made to justify a political viewpoint. We're all guilty of that to some degree and I try to not overplay the unprecedented 10% vote share Corbyn put on in just 2 years for that reason. I do find that a lot of the talk of Labour can only win from the centre is just based on one event which was Blair winning in 1997 where Kinnock had lost in 1992. Not much thought as to whether someone further left leading Labour would also have won after the Tory sell by date had passed (difficult to say as Kinnock was left enough). Also very little attention paid to the motivations of voters for the minor parties like LD & UKIP and where they could end up. I'd be the first to admit that the "political baggage" (including criticisms from within his own party) of having Corbyn made it a more difficult task. Equally he did enthuse a lot of people back into the Labour fold who felt there was something worth voting for, but on the downside scared the old breed of soft Tories (many remainers in there) to carry on voting Tory which prevented 40% being a winning majority percentage that would have been enough in most elections in the past post 2 party system. In general there are multiple reasons for a General Election to turn out the way it does, probably the most important being the state of the economy but multiple other factors and especially so during the brexit period. Corbyn doing so well in 2017 compared to just two years earlier under Miliband perhaps tells us that he was an effective leader up to this point, equally it might just mean that remainers were desperate to try and prevent brexit. 2019, once the pile on against Corbyn was in full flow and especially the pure remain stance from some either going LD or creating an atmosphere that scared Labour brexit voters to not have their brexit taken away from them, became a "disaster" but to say it was the worst election result in 100 years for Labour is a bit simplistic given the other factors (including losing Scotland pre Corbyn and the Red Wall having weakened significantly 1997-2010. I don't think any Labour leader could have played a hand that could have prevented the result in 2019. Possibly a full on remain stance but I suspect a lot more Red Wall places might have fallen and long term a serious problem for Labour in those areas had this actually stopped brexit. As you also point out (I think) that obviously if right wingers within the Labour Party are always going to be critical of left wing policies then by default a divided party isn't going to win from the left. I think this was also true with Miliband that he wanted to be more radical and more anti austerity but was up against a group of Labour MPs who simply did not accept this positioning- less obvious than with Corbyn but still present. Starmer will probably win in 18 months and to some extent his positioning to not worry Tory voters could be seen as sensible, but equally I can imagine someone further left achieving the same, or a better, victory. What will be indefensible is if he loses given everything that has happened during this parliament and when there are no mitigating factors like brexit in play. The point you make re-Scotland is very pertinent. The widely expressed comment that 2019 was Labour's worst election result since 1935 is very simplistic - bordering on the ignorant. In terms of GB vote share it was simply not true at all in that Labours 33% vote share was better than had been achieved in 2015- 2010 - 1987 - and 1983. Even in terms of MPs elected to Parliament it was certainly not true of England where fewer Labour MPs were elected in both 1983 and 1987. In the latter year Labour won 229 seats across GB - 50 being in Scotland so that the England & Wales total was 179. In 2019 Labour won 203 seats - but had only a single seat in Scotland with England & Wales having 202 - only 20 seats below the total achieved there in 1992. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2023 15:42:54 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w "There was indeed, though interestingly the Tories had made about half their gains, and on a steeply rising trend, before the war (which kinda matches with the fall in inflation)" The graph you have linked suggests that, but the polls from that time do not. Looking at the polling averages from the time, the Con VI rose by about 4 points in the 4 months before the Faulklands war and by about 14 points in the aftermath. ConVI Nov/Dec 1981 Av 28% ConVI Late Feb/Mar 1982 Av 32% ConVI July/Aug 1982 Av 46% en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election Fair enough, I shall have another look James! EDIT: the only poll just before the war started was the Telegraph on 35%. You have to go back two weeks for one before that, which is a bit lower, and then another two weeks before that for a poll on 34%, which is perhaps why the graph is as it is. And the important thing is the gradient. There was a rising gradient in step with the inflation improvement, before Falklands kicked in. Though Falklands may well have contributed subsequently of course. The end of 1981 is likely to have depressed the Tory vote for a while following Shirley Williams overturning a very big Tory majority at the Crosby by-election. Early 1982 will have seen some recovery from that by-election effect. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 15:43:48 GMT
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 15:46:14 GMT
Liars liars  |
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2023 15:47:27 GMT
This does indeed appear to be new although the dates seem to be sluggish (so wouldn't cover what could be a stabalisation/improvement for Lab in the last 2 or 3 polls) and I've never held much belief in Santana to begin with:
Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️
@leftiestats
·
49m
🗳️ NEW: Labour lead drops to 11pts (-3)
🔴 LAB 42% (-3)
🔵 CON 31% (-)
🟠 LD 9% (+1)
🟣 REF 7% (+2)
🟡 SNP 3% (-)
🟢 GRN 3% (-)
----
🔴 Labour majority of 28 seats
Via
@savanta_UK
, 21-23 Apr (+/- vs 14-16 Apr)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 15:49:37 GMT
Fair enough, I shall have another look James! EDIT: the only poll just before the war started was the Telegraph on 35%. You have to go back two weeks for one before that, which is a bit lower, and then another two weeks before that for a poll on 34%, which is perhaps why the graph is as it is. And the important thing is the gradient. There was a rising gradient in step with the inflation improvement, before Falklands kicked in. Though Falklands may well have contributed subsequently of course. The end of 1981 is likely to have depressed the Tory vote for a while following Shirley Williams overturning a very big Tory majority at the Crosby by-election. Early 1982 will have seen some recovery from that by-election effect. it might have a bit, though there was a downward trend for a good while before that and it bottomed out around that time |
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 15:59:56 GMT
This does indeed appear to be new although the dates seem to be sluggish (so wouldn't cover what could be a stabalisation/improvement for Lab in the last 2 or 3 polls) and I've never held much belief in Santana to begin with: Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️ @leftiestats · 49m 🗳️ NEW: Labour lead drops to 11pts (-3) 🔴 LAB 42% (-3) 🔵 CON 31% (-) 🟠 LD 9% (+1) 🟣 REF 7% (+2) 🟡 SNP 3% (-) 🟢 GRN 3% (-) ---- 🔴 Labour majority of 28 seats Via @savanta_UK , 21-23 Apr (+/- vs 14-16 Apr) If the fieldwork really was 21-23 Apr, then we have had nine more recent polls since then, including the Survation released today. These are all in a tight range of Lab 13-18 points ahead. 10-poll average is Lab 15% ahead. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 16:00:24 GMT
and I've never held much belief in Santana to begin with: Was quite keen in my younger days… youtu.be/Yp1g_gnN3iM |
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Post by jib on May 3, 2023 16:04:24 GMT
I'm not a big fan of people claiming the unproveable claim they'd be happy to be poor as long as they got brexit as brexit really has made some poorer and suffer and after all those brexit promises of riches for the NHS and cheaper food etc. Equally, I'm not a fan of people spouting unproveable #BolloxsaboutBrexit.It's as if Covid and the war in Ukraine never happened.
Food inflation in Germany currently 20%+.
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Post by superted on May 3, 2023 16:08:38 GMT
Redfield and Wilton have a Scottish poll out. Labour in the lead (on Holyrood list vote). No to independence leads yes by 52-42
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2023 16:18:33 GMT
Humza Yousaf's approval rating
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2023 16:19:39 GMT
Scotland Westminster VI
Beaten to it by Superted
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2023 16:21:06 GMT
Deleted duplicate
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2023 16:22:13 GMT
Scotland regional and constituency
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Post by graham on May 3, 2023 16:26:25 GMT
On a UNS basis this poll implies 20 Labour gains from SNP with a further 3 seats too close to call. The swing is 11.7% since 2019. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 3, 2023 16:26:36 GMT
Those Scottish polls are getting interesting.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 16:50:09 GMT
Why doctors fear Covid could be causing diabetes in otherwise healthy patientsDoctors have long reported a link between the two diseases, which is now being backed up by large-scale observational studies ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/81988/thread(It’s not proven, for example some could have already got undiagnosed diabetes, but a worry… more in the Covid thread)
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 3, 2023 16:52:42 GMT
I'm not a big fan of people claiming the unproveable claim they'd be happy to be poor as long as they got brexit as brexit really has made some poorer and suffer and after all those brexit promises of riches for the NHS and cheaper food etc. Equally, I'm not a fan of people spouting unproveable #BolloxsaboutBrexit.It's as if Covid and the war in Ukraine never happened.
Food inflation in Germany currently 20%+.
It's not that high and the German economy is in far, far better shape to deal with it. |
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Post by Mark on May 3, 2023 17:04:52 GMT
@rafwan Unfortunately or fortunately I have a life outside politics .Family comes first. My issue with Corbyn primarily related to his ineptitude during the Brexit campaign and that I felt he was incapable of attracting sufficient support from the floating vote in the key constituencies to ever win a general election. As it happens unfortunately I was found right in both cases. As someone who was a Corbyn supporter, I half agree. Also as a solid remainer/rejoiner, I hve to say that the remain campaign in general was utterly shit. You can blame the media, which, to an extent, I do, but, firstly, the brexit campaign as presented to general public, was blue-on-blue. Lefty remainers like myself had no truck with eithor of the presented sides (and in fairness, there was absolutely nothing to appeal to lexiteers eithor). Time after time, listening to the remain campaign and to remain supporting panellists on things like Question Time, I was banging my head against the wall. It was all "15.9 billion this" and "two hundred million that" and very little that the ordinary person in the street could relate to. Personally, I think that the remain campaign should have led with freedom of movement front and centre.....with the line "its not about immigrants....this is what you stand to lose" and really spelt it out in black and white. Those who opposed FOM (by proxy those tho disliked immigrants) were always going vote for brexit anyway. Likewise the issue of Northern Ireland, which, yes, was occasionally mentioned, but, often briefly as a side issue. As to Corbyn, he was zipping up and down the country campaigning for remain, but, the media largely ignored him. You could blame the media, but, that was always going to be the case - and the media will likely be a problem for Labour in future elections. Where I do criticise Corbyn is that, for me, he has many talents, but, PR is not one of them. He's shit at it...and that's when he can even be bothered with it. I have long said that, given this, both in the referendum and subsequent elections, he should have hired an Alistiar Campbell type figure (ok, a more lefty version) to handle that side of things for him. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 17:16:31 GMT
The point you make re-Scotland is very pertinent. The widely expressed comment that 2019 was Labour's worst election result since 1935 is very simplistic - bordering on the ignorant. In terms of GB vote share it was simply not true at all in that Labours 33% vote share was better than had been achieved in 2015- 2010 - 1987 - and 1983. Even in terms of MPs elected to Parliament it was certainly not true of England where fewer Labour MPs were elected in both 1983 and 1987. In the latter year Labour won 229 seats across GB - 50 being in Scotland so that the England & Wales total was 179. In 2019 Labour won 203 seats - but had only a single seat in Scotland with England & Wales having 202 - only 20 seats below the total achieved there in 1992. All true, but all it means is that Corbyn lost roughly as badly as Foot, Kinnock and Miliband, which is nothing to get excited about. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 17:19:43 GMT
Those Scottish polls are getting interesting. Makes a significant difference in the 'hung parliament' v 'Labour majority' stakes. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 17:26:01 GMT
jibWould you like to hazard a guess that while food inflation is high in Germany overall inflation is 2.5% lower than in the UK In France it's 4.5% lower than the UK In Spain it's 5.9% lower than the UK And overall in the European union it's 3% lower than the U.K It's almost as if you took the highest rate you could find in the European union and pretended it proved that everywhere was equally impacted and it had nothing to do with brexit. Total bollocks indeed.
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Post by jimjam on May 3, 2023 17:26:18 GMT
James E, yes that Savanta was from when a number of polls had a narrower Labour lead and since then it appears to have widen back a little.
Re Seat forecasts:
I understand why the media will focus on seats counts but for me, flawed though it may be, the PNS is more meaningful.
The parties will of course conduct their internal PNS calculations and break down by regions to give a steer for future prioritisation.
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Post by jimjam on May 3, 2023 17:28:31 GMT
I am rather busy atm but would be goof if someone unpick that Scottish R&W to see how many SNP2019-Lab net switchers there are.
I expect much of the narrowing to be due to SNP 2019 DKs but facts would be nice to know.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 17:35:01 GMT
@mark
"As to Corbyn, he was zipping up and down the country campaigning for remain, but, the media largely ignored him."
He was in general campaigning to the already converted in small events and not once during the campaign did he share a platform with any other party leader campaigning for remain and he took a two week holiday during the campaign.
I was still a Labour party member at the time and he monumentally pissed me off for his obvious lacklustre support for remain it was pretty obvious that he hadn't really given up on his previous four decades+ as a lexiteer . Leadership of an overwhelmingly remain supporting party meant he had to give lip service to remain and that's all it was.
The day after the poll he was calling for article 16 to be immediately enacted which would have been catastrophic.
You're not going to convince me that he was anything other than inadequate in respect of the referendum.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 17:35:11 GMT
France had rather more generous energy subsidies, which will help with inflation rather. Not sure how good the German energy subsidies have been though I know they copped some flak over the size of them: Germany lashes back at energy plan critics, pointing to French subsidiesBerlin argues that Paris is rolling out a support scheme of similar scale. www.politico.eu/article/germany-criticism-energy-subsidies-france-eu/“ France has said it won't allow gas prices to rise for households beyond 15 percent in 2023.” |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2023 17:35:17 GMT
Those Scottish polls are getting interesting. Makes a significant difference in the 'hung parliament' v 'Labour majority' stakes. Agree, this may be a little bit optimistic as you would think the SNP would make atleast something of a recovery But if they don't, or it even gets worse for them, the mountain Labour has to climb to get an overall majority is a little easier |
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Post by matt126 on May 3, 2023 17:35:19 GMT
Noticed in the last few polls the Lib Dems have gone up a bit. Survation + 4, Delta +2 , cannot see any specific reasons for this , but guess the Local elections are catalyst one way or the other. Maybe people focussed on the party the will be voting for in the local elections, or more likely they have have benefited from more media exposure than normal, they have definitely featured on the news more and they seem to have obtained more slots on programmes such as Question Time in the run up to the elections.
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