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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 29, 2023 18:47:14 GMT
steve - "Where's our resident virus expert Alec when we need him?" The Brexit mind virus may appear 'mild' at first, but believe me, the long term effects are devastating. They’ve changed the article headline - now it’s “Brexit has been vindicated – and our dismal elites can’t bear to accept it” |
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Post by jimjam on Apr 29, 2023 18:48:17 GMT
I was thinking 11ish James as the other polls have narrowed in large part due to returning DKs which reduces the impact of Opiniums re-weighting.
Main point is, as you say, 18% would almost certainly be an outlier.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 19:03:59 GMT
Given the divergence of opinion in the 6 Couties over the monarchy, shown in the Lucid Talk poll, Charlie seems to have chosen the least appropriate of NI's languages.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 19:05:21 GMT
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Post by thylacine on Apr 29, 2023 19:28:27 GMT
Given the divergence of opinion in the 6 Couties over the monarchy, shown in the Lucid Talk poll, Charlie seems to have chosen the least appropriate of NI's languages. Can't imagine that going down well on either side of the divide. One side will see it as appropriation the other as the work of the very devil. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 29, 2023 20:02:43 GMT
I admire your optimism. Our defence spending has been woefully inadequate for decades and I see no sign of it ramping up. It's a bit like 1938 when a lot of people seemed to think that H*tler wasn't really a serious threat even after he annexed Austria. I really don't think that is a valid cmparison. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. They are short of both weapons and soldiers. They are having a hard time in even holding onto areas of Ukraine they have. That is not a power that is going to invade anywhere else anytime soon, except maybe one or two small, sei-friendly soft targets. Putin also knows that if he touched a NATO country, he'd get his arse handed to him. Having said that, the one thing Putin does have is nuclear weapons. Despite his bluster, he's not in a hurry to use such a weapon in Ukraine.....but, if we get into a shooting match with him, that is a different matter. It's not an exact comparison of course, but let's not forget that he first invaded eastern Ukraine and the Crimea over 10 years ago and nothing was done because it was thought that he'd stop there, a bit like when Germany took Austria and Czechoslovakia but nothing was done because it was thought he'd stop there. If Putin formally declares war (as is rumoured) he'll be able to call up many thousands more men. I agree that Russia is not doing well at the moment, but we should not be complacent. At the very least we should be ramping up manufacture of ammunition and other equipment to supply to Ukraine. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 29, 2023 20:06:33 GMT
Given the divergence of opinion in the 6 Couties over the monarchy, shown in the Lucid Talk poll, Charlie seems to have chosen the least appropriate of NI's languages. Can't imagine that going down well on either side of the divide. One side will see it as appropriation the other as the work of the very devil. You may be right, but he clearly just trying to be inclusive and to heal divisions. Possibly misguided but at least he's trying. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 20:12:46 GMT
Given the divergence of opinion in the 6 Couties over the monarchy, shown in the Lucid Talk poll, Charlie seems to have chosen the least appropriate of NI's languages. Can't imagine that going down well on either side of the divide. One side will see it as appropriation the other as the work of the very devil. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 20:17:42 GMT
Anent the companies seeking commercial advantage from Charlie's shindig
It can rebound.
I was in Tesco today, and it was decked out like the Rangers end at Hampden tomorrow. I only picked up a couple of essentials, though I noticed that thoughtful members of staff had heavily concentrated the "Let's celebrate the Coronation" signs around the toilet rolls.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 20:37:09 GMT
Interesting BBC headline!
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Post by jib on Apr 29, 2023 20:40:17 GMT
steve - "Where's our resident virus expert Alec when we need him?" The Brexit mind virus may appear 'mild' at first, but believe me, the long term effects are devastating. Jeez, it sounds awful. If I display any signs of Remainia I shall be in touch for advice on symptom management. |
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Post by domjg on Apr 29, 2023 20:52:37 GMT
steve - "Where's our resident virus expert Alec when we need him?" The Brexit mind virus may appear 'mild' at first, but believe me, the long term effects are devastating. Jeez, it sounds awful. If I display any signs of Remainia I shall be in touch for advice on symptom management. A reversion to type after some unexpectedly sensible posts recently! |
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Post by hireton on Apr 29, 2023 21:01:52 GMT
The Spectator demonstrating its grasp of Scottish history and issues is as firm as ever:
McWhirter should have known better.
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Post by jib on Apr 29, 2023 21:13:10 GMT
Jeez, it sounds awful. If I display any signs of Remainia I shall be in touch for advice on symptom management. A reversion to type after some unexpectedly sensible posts recently! Have I put my foot in it?  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 29, 2023 22:22:58 GMT
The Spectator demonstrating its grasp of Scottish history and issues is as firm as ever: McWhirter should have known better. To be fair, by definition their grasp of English history must be equally ropy.  |
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 29, 2023 22:24:20 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 29, 2023 22:25:16 GMT
Can't imagine that going down well on either side of the divide. One side will see it as appropriation the other as the work of the very devil. You may be right, but he clearly just trying to be inclusive and to heal divisions. Possibly misguided but at least he's trying. So long as he doesn't try speaking it - the attempts at Welsh have not gone well over the years. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 29, 2023 22:37:04 GMT
 That's a relief. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 29, 2023 22:39:39 GMT
 The importance of apostrophes. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 23:14:14 GMT
Also the importance of understanding the meaning of words.
A "remainer" is someone who wishes to stay in the situation they are currently in. With regard to the EU, most on this board were "remainers" while the UK was an EU member. Now, we are "returners" or "rejoiners".
There is a minority of the UK population that are currently sufferers from "Remania". They are those (like jib) who wish to remain outwith the EU and enjoy/suffer the consequences of that debilitating condition.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 29, 2023 23:26:54 GMT
I see that the CEO of the Church of England wants everyone to swear allegiance to his boss (his actual one, not the imaginary guy in the sky).
They must be really shit scared at what the polls are saying.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 30, 2023 5:33:56 GMT
oldnat I thought that must be a joke but it's actually their intention. The police affirmation had something about serving the monarch in the office of constable but it was about service to the public not servitude to the descendant of landed tyrants. I'll give that particular total bollocks a miss along I suspect with the vast majority of the population. If you want to undermine the monarchy even further I couldn't have chosen something better able to display what our "elite" think of the rest of us and the vast and profligate waste of our money on a billionaires coach ride isn't likely to do much either. No doubt the forelock tugging unctuous supplicancy of our public service broadcaster will be on full display for hours of broadcasting excrement as well. Still there's always Netflix 
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Post by jimjam on Apr 30, 2023 7:04:54 GMT
Think not actually been posted so for the record, lets brace ourselves for the big gap closing comments in 2 weeks time!
''This week's Opinium poll for @observeruk
Labour makes gains, with its lead at 18:
Con 26% (-2)
Lab 44% (+2)
Lib Dems 10% (nc)
Green 7% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (-1) pic.twitter.com/FNkd3P6HU0
29/04/2023, 20:00''
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Post by jimjam on Apr 30, 2023 7:08:15 GMT
From Sam Coates below:
I reckon 600+ is decent for Labour with the 400 from HQ being the same expectation management as the Tories 1000 seat losses.
''Small local election update.
Until now we’ve had Tory seat expectation management - they say on course to lose 1,000 seats but until now nothing for Labour
Now I’ve got a Labour number.
The party is saying 400 Lab seat gains would be a good night. So keep that in your back…''
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Post by jimjam on Apr 30, 2023 7:15:23 GMT
Also Sam Coates:
''NB Sky election analyst Michael Thrasher... put a good night for Labour, with a 6% swing C-L, at 700 seats gains.''
That is where I am: 600 decent, below 500 disappointing above 700 good.
Below 5% swing on NPS disappointing, above 7% good. (Swing from NPS 4 years ago).
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 30, 2023 7:23:46 GMT
Since my last post the catastrophic failure of Brexit has cost the U.K. economy another £1 million!  |
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Post by neilj on Apr 30, 2023 7:26:42 GMT
I suspect the Opinium poll is a bit of an outlier as I think it shows the biggest Labour lead with them this year?
As much as I would like it to be right can't see much has happened in the last two weeks to move the dial
I suppose the Raab issue, but that has had little effect in other polls
Interesting to see this weeks polls go
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 30, 2023 7:48:51 GMT
Also Sam Coates: ''NB Sky election analyst Michael Thrasher... put a good night for Labour, with a 6% swing C-L, at 700 seats gains.'' That is where I am: 600 decent, below 500 disappointing above 700 good. Below 5% swing on NPS disappointing, above 7% good. (Swing from NPS 4 years ago). How expectation management works: 1000 (Tory estimate) + 400 (Labour estimate) divided by 2 = 700 (local election expert). Having said that, the Conservatives would be talking about losses to all parties, not just Labour, whereas Labour are talking about their own net gains, so not quite the same thing. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 30, 2023 7:52:43 GMT
I suspect the Opinium poll is a bit of an outlier as I think it shows the biggest Labour lead with them this year? As much as I would like it to be right can't see much has happened in the last two weeks to move the dial I suppose the Raab issue, but that has had little effect in other polls Interesting to see this weeks polls go The data tables are up for anyone who wants to delve. www.opinium.com/polling-tables-archive/ |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 30, 2023 8:04:29 GMT
I suspect the Opinium poll is a bit of an outlier as I think it shows the biggest Labour lead with them this year? As much as I would like it to be right can't see much has happened in the last two weeks to move the dial I suppose the Raab issue, but that has had little effect in other polls Interesting to see this weeks polls go The data tables are up for anyone who wants to delve. www.opinium.com/polling-tables-archive/What jumps out at me is an unusally high number of 2019 Conservatives voting Labour. The 2019 Conservative VI breaks down as: Con 45%, Don't Know 22%, Labour 16%, Lib Dem 3%, RefUK 8%, Green 2%, other party 1%, won't vote 2% Con voting Lab is more usually 8 or 9% I think? |
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