Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 15:08:15 GMT
Trevor - you are keen on asking people to prove things, so I have a challenge for you. You are obviously keen on the Rwanda policy. There are soon to be 1,700 men incarcerated at Wethersfield, with similar centres to follow in Lincolnshire and Sussex. Can you provide objective evidence (i.e. hopeful statements by Suella Braverman don't count) that Rwanda intends to accommodate many thousands of people deported from Britain? Remember that these people are already here, so talk about it acting as a deterrent is beside the point. The reason I ask is that to me the policy looks like a culture war stunt rather than serious policy, so I would be interested if you can prove me wrong. Please us the 'tag' or 'quote' function in future so a comment made to me flags up in my notifications. It is easy to scroll past a lot of posts and miss a question. I'll set aside your assumptions and quickly answer that it is impossible to prove something before it happens. However: 1/ Rwanda (and similar safe countries) can be scaled up in due course. Why pay even more now for something that is still stuck in the courts? Of course until the Rwanda scheme is actually being used then its efficacy as a "deterrent" is impossible to measure (ie at the moment then the criminal gangs can tell their customers that the scheme will never be up and running and that the "Lefty lawyers" will ensure they get to stay in UK) 2/ Illegal Immigrants currently in UK can also be returned to their home country (where applicable) 3/ Many of the people in the current 'backlog' might well be 'genuine' asylum seekers, who can be processed in UK and stay in UK If Rwanda is simply a 'stunt' (as LAB HQ will have possibly told you to believe) then CON will pay the price at the ballot box in GE'24 - with RUK the main direct beneficiary (and LAB indirectly via a 'split vote') NB I'm not sure when my 48hr "time out" starts but I probably won't be able to reply again. If you have access to a time machine then let me know and I'll use it to go into the future to see what happens WRT to the Rwanda scheme and the thousands of illegal immigrants already in UK. In the mean time, since I answered your question, then please answer my Yes/No question. PS Perhaps Raab should have tried to say some of his "bullying" was just banter? Would anyone who piled in calling Raab a "bully" have believed he was just engaging in a bit of friendly, harmless, banter - or do some people want to self ID as hypocrites? |
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Post by shevii on Apr 28, 2023 15:13:01 GMT
Green Elects
@green_Elects
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4m
🇬🇧Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (-2)
CON: 28% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 6% (-) 🟢
REFM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 4% (-)
via
@omnisis
/ 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs w/ 20 – 21 Apr.
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Post by shevii on Apr 28, 2023 15:21:40 GMT
Bit of a problem with Omnisis, although their polling is for General Election, this question (about the locals) is off the scale bad on responses:
Omnisis
@omnisis
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49m
4/ We also asked if people are planning to vote. If the responses we gathered turn out to be true, it looks like turnout could be high…
🙂 70% yes
☹️ 30% no
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Post by James E on Apr 28, 2023 15:36:44 GMT
...and this is the result of that Omnisis Local Elections poll:
Local Elections Voting Intention:
LAB: 37% (+10)
CON: 26% (-5)
LDM: 17% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
IND: 6% (-5)
RFM: 4% (-1)*
Via
@omnisis
, 27-28 Apr.
Changes w/ LE2019.
*Changes w/ UKIP share.
3:38 PM · Apr 28, 2023
These figures look credible enough to me. I recently did some analysis of Local Election 'Net equivalent vote' shares for the past decade, and the norm seems to be that Labour get 5% or so less than their General Election VI, the Tories a few points below theirs, too, and the LDs exceed their GE VI by around 7 points.
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 28, 2023 15:45:22 GMT
... she is clear that in her view black people experience racism, Jews and Travellers do not, in which she is demonstrably wrong, as I am sure you will know. I am not sure this is true. Is it wrong to say ‘racism’ is based upon ‘race’, or that in turn ‘race’ is based upon genetically determined physical appearance (principally skin colour)? Other forms of discrimination and oppression are rooted in something else, in characteristics that are culturally decided. Genetically determined characteristics are (largely) immutable in a way that cultural factors are not. A good counterargument to this is that in the struggle against discrimination and oppression, a unity of approach is required, and the single banner of ‘racism’ is best. And I think I do agree with that. But here we have someone who has been the victim of a huge amount of racist abuse, who proposes a more fine-grained approach. On that basis alone, I think she should get a fair hearing, even if I don’t agree with her view. At no point does she suggest that the discrimination and oppression experienced by Jews and Travellers is in any way somehow less than that experienced directly on the basis of race. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 16:30:10 GMT
Trevor - you are keen on asking people to prove things, so I have a challenge for you. You are obviously keen on the Rwanda policy. There are soon to be 1,700 men incarcerated at Wethersfield, with similar centres to follow in Lincolnshire and Sussex. Can you provide objective evidence (i.e. hopeful statements by Suella Braverman don't count) that Rwanda intends to accommodate many thousands of people deported from Britain? Remember that these people are already here, so talk about it acting as a deterrent is beside the point. The reason I ask is that to me the policy looks like a culture war stunt rather than serious policy, so I would be interested if you can prove me wrong. Please us the 'tag' or 'quote' function in future so a comment made to me flags up in my notifications. It is easy to scroll past a lot of posts and miss a question. I'll set aside your assumptions and quickly answer that it is impossible to prove something before it happens. However: 1/ Rwanda (and similar safe countries) can be scaled up in due course. Why pay even more now for something that is still stuck in the courts? Of course until the Rwanda scheme is actually being used then its efficacy as a "deterrent" is impossible to measure (ie at the moment then the criminal gangs can tell their customers that the scheme will never be up and running and that the "Lefty lawyers" will ensure they get to stay in UK) 2/ Illegal Immigrants currently in UK can also be returned to their home country (where applicable) 3/ Many of the people in the current 'backlog' might well be 'genuine' asylum seekers, who can be processed in UK and stay in UK If Rwanda is simply a 'stunt' (as LAB HQ will have possibly told you to believe) then CON will pay the price at the ballot box in GE'24 - with RUK the main direct beneficiary (and LAB indirectly via a 'split vote') Thank you for the response, although I note you didn't actually answer the question about the numbers Rwanda will take. Happy to 'wait and see' with a view IMO that it will prove to be minimal. As before, my views on here are my own, not those of the Labour Party. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 17:03:06 GMT
As simple yes/no question, given you though the word 'twat' was too polite. Would YOU call an employee or someone you didn't know a 'twat' (or worse) and think that was acceptable? Yes/No. In the spirit of goodwill, I will apologise for thinking that description apt, even though I did not actually use it myself. In return you need to recognise that your behaviour was appalling and caused considerable distress to other users of the site, to whom you also owe an apology - again in the spirit of goodwill. Official sanctions are of course a matter for Mark, not either of us. |
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Post by shevii on Apr 28, 2023 17:20:16 GMT
...and this is the result of that Omnisis Local Elections poll: Local Elections Voting Intention: LAB: 37% (+10) CON: 26% (-5) LDM: 17% (=) GRN: 9% (=) IND: 6% (-5) RFM: 4% (-1)* Via @omnisis , 27-28 Apr. Changes w/ LE2019. *Changes w/ UKIP share. 3:38 PM · Apr 28, 2023 These figures look credible enough to me. I recently did some analysis of Local Election 'Net equivalent vote' shares for the past decade, and the norm seems to be that Labour get 5% or so less than their General Election VI, the Tories a few points below theirs, too, and the LDs exceed their GE VI by around 7 points. They do look pretty credible to me as well but based on a 70% turnout I wouldn't describe this as very scientific conclusions. I wonder also if they have checked the response as to whether the chosen party was standing in the ward in question? According to Wiki Reform are only standing in 6% of the wards so no way they can get 4% share of vote. Green Party in 41% of wards also vulnerable I imagine although it's a bit weird that it's showing as no change on 2019- did the Greens pick up circa 20% in the wards they stood that year (or less candidates now)? Also independents were significantly underestimated last time I believe (seat wise anyway). |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,748
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Post by steve on Apr 28, 2023 17:54:35 GMT
Hilary Benn upsetting brexitanians simply by being honest. Makes a change from the total bollocks still being spouted by both party leaders. youtu.be/YZ2G-o_SVb8 |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 18:07:35 GMT
... she is clear that in her view black people experience racism, Jews and Travellers do not, in which she is demonstrably wrong, as I am sure you will know. I am not sure this is true. Is it wrong to say ‘racism’ is based upon ‘race’, or that in turn ‘race’ is based upon genetically determined physical appearance (principally skin colour)? Other forms of discrimination and oppression are rooted in something else, in characteristics that are culturally decided. Genetically determined characteristics are (largely) immutable in a way that cultural factors are not. A good counterargument to this is that in the struggle against discrimination and oppression, a unity of approach is required, and the single banner of ‘racism’ is best. And I think I do agree with that. But here we have someone who has been the victim of a huge amount of racist abuse, who proposes a more fine-grained approach. On that basis alone, I think she should get a fair hearing, even if I don’t agree with her view. At no point does she suggest that the discrimination and oppression experienced by Jews and Travellers is in any way somehow less than that experienced directly on the basis of race. I think we will have to agree to disagree on this, but the article I linked to made the point that Jews are sometimes considered white and sometimes not depending on what suits the agenda of the viewer and that the Irish suffered what can only be described as racial discrimination in the 19th century USA. Worth a read - there is more to racism than skin pigmentation. |
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Post by shevii on Apr 28, 2023 18:29:20 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 28, 2023 18:40:36 GMT
And to put our little storms in teacups into some perspective, perhaps we should all be pondering the stunning, savage, record breaking sea surface temperatures currently being recorded. It's looking horribly like we've underestimated the rapidity of global heating. That has consequences for everyone. This isn't actually any surprise for those sufficiently interested to follow the science. Warm water absorbs less carbon dioxide than cold water, and indeed may emit it to keep oceanic and atmospheric CO 2 in balance. Much depends on oceanic circulation (you may have heard of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation -AMOC) which takes surface waters down into the deeps, and brings up cold old water, which can absorb more CO 2. Melting of sea ice (and Greenland ice) freshens the north Atlantic, and prevents the sinking of this warm salty water. Of course the climate system is very complex, and there's Antarctica to consider, and the circumpolar currents in the southern hemisphere. But the point still stands - the warming of the ocean surface and the reduction of absorbed CO 2 is entirely predictable and expected. It's not always recognised that there's quite a margin of error in future predictions, and the IPCC, which is normally quoted as the authority, gives a cautious consensus one. Many respected climatologists and oceanologists think that the dangers have been underestimated, and even those who don't, worry about unexpected thresholds. Climate change as history shows is not linear. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 18:49:11 GMT
...and this is the result of that Omnisis Local Elections poll: Local Elections Voting Intention: LAB: 37% (+10) CON: 26% (-5) LDM: 17% (=) GRN: 9% (=) IND: 6% (-5) RFM: 4% (-1)* Via @omnisis , 27-28 Apr. Changes w/ LE2019. *Changes w/ UKIP share. 3:38 PM · Apr 28, 2023 These figures look credible enough to me. I recently did some analysis of Local Election 'Net equivalent vote' shares for the past decade, and the norm seems to be that Labour get 5% or so less than their General Election VI, the Tories a few points below theirs, too, and the LDs exceed their GE VI by around 7 points. Applying those figures exactly as they are to Braintree DC would produce Con 28 (-6), Green/Ind 9 (nc), Labour 8 (+6), Halstead Res 4 (nc). Small hidden churn in the Green number in that they lose a seat to Labour, but gain one from the Tories. |
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 28, 2023 19:15:38 GMT
pjw1961 Thanks, yes agreed. I believe the only real difference between us is over Abbott's culpability. Chakrabortty is a fine, unmissable writer. But in this he lost me with the opening sentence of the fifth paragraph, where he 'summarises' her 'argument' in a way that is just plain wrong.
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 28, 2023 19:49:00 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 20:56:32 GMT
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Post by alec on Apr 28, 2023 21:19:01 GMT
pjw1961 - good news from across the pond then. Talking of reproductive rights, I saw this headline from the BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65429936"Sperm donor who fathered 550 children ordered to stop" Apparently the judge told him he might go blind.....
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,149
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Post by domjg on Apr 28, 2023 21:43:37 GMT
Calm, clear facts speak for themselves. It's the brexiters and culture warriors that need hyperbole and performance to cover up the flaccid, thin emptyness of their 'arguments'. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 22:03:17 GMT
pjw1961 - good news from across the pond then. Talking of reproductive rights, I saw this headline from the BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65429936"Sperm donor who fathered 550 children ordered to stop" Apparently the judge told him he might go blind..... With the fertility doctor who used himself as the only sperm donor without telling the women involved (looked it up - it was Jan Karbaat), aside from the fraud element the authorities got worried about the possibility of accidental incest among the 200 half-siblings he had fathered in a relatively small geographical area. He was Dutch too, oddly enough. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 28, 2023 22:22:16 GMT
Labour (Labfur?) have held the Swansea local by election. LibDems got over 30% from nowhere which obviously hit the Labour and Tory percentage. Baker, Mair (Lab) - 485 - 53.5% (-25.7%) Burton, Dan (LibDem) - 274 - 30.2% (+30.2%) Davies, Craig (Green) - 42 - 4.6% (+4.6%) Griffths-Warlow, Ioan Macsen (Plaid) - 34 - 3.8% (+3.8%) Harry, Jake (Con) - 71 - 7.8% (-14%) The Welsh spelling of Labour is Llafur, but then you already knew that, didn't you. No. I was working from memory. I haven't got limitless time to look every word up. That's why I put a '?'. I was trying to forestall any pedant telling me that Labour are called something different in Wales. I got the 'fur' bit right, but should have realised that all 'l's are doubled in Welsh. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 28, 2023 22:45:32 GMT
You appear to have completely lost the plot. I never advocated gypsy as a collective term for all traveller communities. I said "traveller is an inaccurate term for Gypsies who prefer to be called Gypsies". Remember that this started with a specific racist reference to Gypsies, not any other traveller group. I expect this was my post. I'd just like to reiterate that in my understanding it was simply an abbreviation - a bit like "Aussie" for Australian or "Manc" for Mancunian. (I've looked both those up as per neilj' advice and couldn't find any reference to them being offensive, though I admit it was a cursory search) Anyway perhaps its time we moved on? |
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Post by mercian on Apr 28, 2023 22:50:36 GMT
And to put our little storms in teacups into some perspective, perhaps we should all be pondering the stunning, savage, record breaking sea surface temperatures currently being recorded. /photo/1 It's looking horribly like we've underestimated the rapidity of global heating. That has consequences for everyone. I guess we'd better hunker down and keep a stiff upper lip then. |
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,149
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Post by domjg on Apr 28, 2023 22:58:51 GMT
An article in this week's Economist says Ukraine must receive modern Western aircraft like F-16s or Gripens to ensure the Russians aren't able to gain air superiority over part or all of the country as air defences are run ragged, severely effecting ground operations.
If Russian bombers were able to roam up to the borders with Poland and Romania we'd have to do something about it anyway.
I'm not worried by a direct military confrontation with Russia, I think it's coming at some point whether we choose it or not and when it happens I think they'll fold like a pack of cards. Would send a strong symbol of resolve to China as well. Events like the attacks last night make me almost wish for it.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Apr 28, 2023 22:58:59 GMT
How not to handle the media for a PM visit to Scotland: |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 28, 2023 22:59:37 GMT
You appear to have completely lost the plot. I never advocated gypsy as a collective term for all traveller communities. I said "traveller is an inaccurate term for Gypsies who prefer to be called Gypsies". Remember that this started with a specific racist reference to Gypsies, not any other traveller group. I expect this was my post. I'd just like to reiterate that in my understanding it was simply an abbreviation - a bit like "Aussie" for Australian or "Manc" for Mancunian. (I've looked both those up as per neilj ' advice and couldn't find any reference to them being offensive, though I admit it was a cursory search) Anyway perhaps its time we moved on? Happy to do so; it was someone else who was picking at the scab there. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 28, 2023 23:05:34 GMT
I think we will have to agree to disagree on this, but the article I linked to made the point that Jews are sometimes considered white and sometimes not depending on what suits the agenda of the viewer and that the Irish suffered what can only be described as racial discrimination in the 19th century USA. Worth a read - there is more to racism than skin pigmentation. Bear with me on this, as I am clearly out of touch with how some people think. This isn't a wind-up or 'trolling', I'm just confused. I think you're saying that racism is based on nationality rather than race? So if an Englishman said he didn't like Germans and discriminated against them that would be racism in your view? How about if a Scot or Welshman said he didn't like the English? These various groups are genetically pretty similar and indeed will likely share common ancestors in relatively recent times. Therefore in my view those examples (or your Irish in America) wouldn't be racist. Prejudiced perhaps but not racist. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Apr 28, 2023 23:08:30 GMT
How not to handle the media for a PM visit to Scotland: |
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Post by mercian on Apr 28, 2023 23:12:59 GMT
I didn't watch it all because he made claims about the leave campaign that 'simply weren't true' to use his own words. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 28, 2023 23:19:28 GMT
An article in this week's Economist says Ukraine must receive modern Western aircraft like F-16s or Gripens to ensure the Russians aren't able to gain air superiority over part or all of the country as air defences are run ragged, severely effecting ground operations. If Russian bombers were able to roam up to the borders with Poland and Romania we'd have to do something about it anyway. I'm not worried by a direct military confrontation with Russia, I think it's coming at some point whether we choose it or not and when it happens I think they'll fold like a pack of cards. Would send a strong symbol of resolve to China as well. Events like the attacks last night make me almost wish for it. I admire your optimism. Our defence spending has been woefully inadequate for decades and I see no sign of it ramping up. It's a bit like 1938 when a lot of people seemed to think that H*tler wasn't really a serious threat even after he annexed Austria. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Apr 28, 2023 23:25:52 GMT
It has taken time, but Richard Sharp has resigned Some pundit said it was important that the chairman of the BBC can demonstrate his independence from government. There is absolutely no point having a placeman in some job if that person cannot credibly pretend he isnt your placeman. This incident has shown he obviously isnt independent, so now someone else will have to be found who has a clear public image of independence. Then the new person can effectively act to ensure the BBC does government bidding.
I expect the next one to have less obvious affiliations, and thus be more difficult for the next UK PM to remove and install a chairman to do the Labour government's bidding, thus enabling the new chairman to continue to do the current government's bidding - under the guise of impartiality. |
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