01-Oct 2022 : LAB: 46% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 6%

[Deleted]

FTSE up
Sterling/Dollar up
10 yr/30 yr Gilt yields down

phew-and thats just the reaction to HUnt not Kwarteng.

Statement later -hopefully consolidates.

Next priority-a new centre ground leader prepared to face down the ( reasonable) calls for a GE. Spend two years recovering some confidence in UK's Public Finances and the Tory Party's sanity. Only appoint someone prepared to stay through 5 years of opposition to rediscover the soul and purpose of the Conservative Party ready for 2029

[robbiealive]

Oct 17, 2022 8:59:35 GMT crossbat11 said:

I love the classic Toryspeak we often get from Toryland.

Labour are never elected they're always "let in".

Very Tea Party. Labour never have a democratic right to govern.

An American friend arriving here years ago said the Tories reminded her of the Republicans in believing that only their governments were truly legitimate. The Republicans now preach a neo-fascist version of this "philosophy", while the Tories engage in a milder form of voter suppression. A French acquaintence arriving 10 years ago was bemused by the fact that as she put it "none of you ever mention the Tories without snarling & spitting". She is no longer bemused. 

[steve]

Just as a reminder.
Everyone of the politicians, dodgy think tanks and far right media outlets who supported Kwarteng's insane neo liberal budget that will make us All ( other than currency speculators) poorer was a brexitanian including born again lunatic brexitoid Truss.

We've have had 6 years of stupidity following on from a narrow win in in a demographically gerrymandered referendum ,based on Brexit lies,the insanity and diminishment of this country has been unceasing.

The current cluster shambles appears to be the fruition.

Maybe it will allow the grown ups to take back control?
We can only hope.

[steve]

Little prediction of Hunts statement.

"We fucked up
You get to pay"

[alec]

I think the really interesting point here are the comments from various city observers. The moves by Hunt are clearly a response to market panic, and they involve stripping back the tax cuts and spending pledges etc. That is helping to stabilise markets, but at a higher base than before the mini budget disaster.

But it comes at a cost. Entering a recession, as we likely are (even before the Truss fiasco) normally calls for fiscal stimulus, not contraction. The engineered and entirely avoidable stripping of market confidence in the UK's governance has now had the effect that to avoid absolute turmoil, the government needs to raise taxes and cut spending, thus making growth harder and likely deepening any coming contraction. Two years out from a GE that's a very tough message to give.

Hunt is trapped between the markets and the electorate. In many ways, we should, I think, give thanks that the polls are so dire for the government. No one in the Conservative Fairyland can now pretend that aggressive, libertarian 'pro-growth' policies will win them an election, and few now believe they have any chance at all, whatever they do. So Hunt has in many ways the permission from his MPs to forget about keeping the electorate happy, but instead is free to concentrate on calming the markets and salvaging whatever fiscal credibility for the country that he can.

This is actually very important, for everyone. Truss placed us in the worst of all worlds, trapped between market sentiment but only two years out from a GE. She's been so awful that this dichotomy has already resolved.

[hireton]

So that's the Tory energy price cap policy ditched:

[Deleted]

Beeb says Hunt expected to scale back universal energy bills help. The one current policy that people quite like! Are they trying to be unpopular on purpose?!

[leftieliberal]

Oct 16, 2022 19:05:15 GMT mercian said:

Oct 16, 2022 18:00:53 GMT lefthanging said:

Whatever happened to the CoE being 'the Tory party at prayer'? 😄

The CofE was certainly "The Tory Party at Prayer" back in the middle of the 18th Century when preachers like John Wesley and George Whitefield tried to bring it back to true Christianity, but were rejected and ended up founding Methodism (Wesley was an Arminian and Whitefield a Calvinist, so there were differences between their strains of Methodism which resulted in separate churches). By the 1960s the CofE had come round to recognising that Wesley was right all along and nearly merged with the Methodists but the conservatism (with a small c) of the CofE meant it never happened. 

[steve]

UK government borrowing has increased in cost as interest rates surge in the back of no confidence in the regime.

The market is calling it " the moron premium "

[Deleted]

Channelling my inner Danny, could it be that this whole mini budget affair has been acted out like this on purpose? The party finally put forward a 'proper Conservative budget' after all these years of hugging hoodies etc, only to have it cruelly torpedoed by the leftie liberal markets, MSM, opposition etc. A bit like Brexit - they tried to get it through the Commons, but 'enemies of the people' stood in the way. The only way out... was an election.

I'll go back to bed.

[pjw1961]

At last PMQs the only attack line Truss had was to say how her energy policy was superior to Labour's and would last 2 years rather than 6 months. That is now in the bin. I suspect we will see Hunt announce a windfall tax on energy companies soon.

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2022 10:23:44 GMT pjw1961 said:

At last PMQs the only attack line Truss had was to say how her energy policy was superior to Labour's and would last 2 years rather than 6 months. That is now in the bin. I suspect we will see Hunt announce a windfall tax on energy companies soon.

The optics being... they didn't want to do any of this. They wanted to cut taxes but they weren't allowed to (by external forces). Blame shifted, job done. Eek I'm turning into Danny!

[laszlo4new]

As I wrote earlier, GDP is not particularly useful for some of the claims to support them (if for nothing else because the calculations vary significantly country by country, for example, government consumption, black market, unpaid work, capital flows, discretionary allocations).

However, just for some further thoughts:

Economic growth in Germany and the UK)

1993-1997 (so from the recession (both countries) to the end of the recession era (Germany)
Germany: 5.63%
UK: 14.37%

1998-2001 (dot.com bursting):
Germany: 8.76%
UK: 12.41%

(so, 1993-2001: Germany 14.89%, UK: 28.54%)

2002-2008 (financial crisis):
Germany: 9.46%
UK: 15.63%

(so, 1993-2008: Germany: 25.75%, UK: 48.65%)

2009-2016 (arbitrary: Brexit)
Germany: 6.83%
UK: 8.41%

(so, 1993-2016: Germany: 34.34%, UK: 61.16%)

2016-2021 (very strongly influenced by Covid)
Germany: 5.85%
UK: 2.88%

(so, 1993-2021: Germany 42.2%, UK: 65.8%).

Added: the GDP is also affected by multinational in-house pricing models.- so pricing of the trading  flow between the home country and the foreign subsidiary. In the case of the US is is more than 2/3s of the foreign trade, and you may want to look at some of the companies operating in a particular country and because of tax considerations the value added appears to be negative - for 30 years... And that would appear in the GDP figure as minus).

[Danny]

Oct 17, 2022 9:36:05 GMT hireton said:

This IpsosMori poll is grim reading for the Tory Party. I can't find the poll results in detail at the moment so the ES article will have to suffice for the moment:

That has them only leading on defence. Not as if they have actully done much except supply Ukrainiane to some extent. Its hard to say how much, as we seem to be doing a lot quietly in terms of training, apart from headline missile supplies etc.  Hunt did suggest cuts rather thn increases to the defence budget would be the future, and I dont know how these supplies to Ukraine are being paid for. Nor whether the UK has ordered replacements, which it obviously needs to do immediately. So I see some scope there for a reversal of fortune if this gets more publicity. Stories about us having run out of ammunition to send to Ukraine wont go down well amongst tories in particular.

[leftieliberal]

Oct 16, 2022 21:19:58 GMT pjw1961 said:

Oct 16, 2022 20:51:41 GMT steve said:

pjw1961

Of course 137 would be the worst result ever achieved by the tories and the lowest total ever achieved under universal suffrage for a party finishing second.

It would, but I will be surprised if they go that low in practice. It is reasonable to expect some swing back to the Conservatives as the election approaches even if it is only the 'don't knows' getting back on board. 150+ would be my expectation, 200 if they ditch Truss and get someone who looks boring and safe as leader. 

Normally, I would agree with you on this, but the 1993 Canadian Federal Election saw their Conservative party falling from 156 seats and an overall majority to just 2 seats. Under FPTP extreme results can occur.

[Danny]

Oct 17, 2022 10:25:48 GMT @sotonsaint said:

The optics being... they didn't want to do any of this. They wanted to cut taxes but they weren't allowed to (by external forces). Blame shifted, job done. Eek I'm turning into Danny!

No, you are turning into a politician.

[moosepoll]

Time for a no confidence motion surely, Cons can bin Truss by accepting it

[leftieliberal]

Oct 16, 2022 21:31:37 GMT domjg said:

Oct 16, 2022 21:14:45 GMT RAF said:

Tony Blair always listened to and answered questions - generally very politely.

In order to convincingly answer un-prepped for questions as a senior politician it’s not just a case of wanting to do it, they need to have the knowledge, quick wittedness, confident charm and eloquence to handle it successfully. Brown I’d suggest certainly had the first two, Cameron, if I were being generous, the last two. All the PMs since? Barely any at all. 

Blair could do all of them, all day.

So, actually could Nick Clegg. I saw him do it at one of the "Town Hall" meetings that he held when he was running for the leadership of the Lib Dems. That was back in 2007 and in those days, none of us realised that he was going to turn into a Tory as soon as he had the opportunity. I wonder if the last three qualities are something that comes from a Public School education (not that it guarantees someone having such qualities). 

[Deleted]

I did wonder why market concern about borrowing in Kwarteng's proposals was always reported as centering on the tax cuts. The largest item by far was the Energy Cap. Priced at £60 bn for 1 year-with a further year of open ended commitment.

OBR's fan charts would have looked like a Damien Hirst.

I presume that now, they will be able to forecast with more certainty.

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2022 10:40:28 GMT moosepoll said:

Time for a no confidence motion surely, Cons can bin Truss by accepting it

Not sure about that. Yes, she's terrible (and toast) but Hunt is a rare adult in the room and he's enacting Sunakian/Cameronian [sic] policies which aren't what all Tories want but they tend to sit better with the public than crazy Brittania Unchained stuff.

[neilj]

Useful summary

[mercian]

I'll catch up later but just wanted to say that I was quite impressed by Hunt. I've not been before partly because he looks like a little boy to me, but he gave the impression that the grown-ups are back in charge. I was pleased to hear him say that he'd asked the Speaker's permission to address the nation prior to the Commons, which doesn't seem to have happened much lately. I was reminded of the days when Heath and Wilson addressed the nation from behind a desk rather than pandering to the media. Overall he gave the impression of a serious politician instead of the clowns we've had for the last few years.

[leftieliberal]

Oct 16, 2022 22:53:14 GMT mercian said:

Oct 16, 2022 22:30:20 GMT graham said:

The key point here though is not so much the level of the LibDem vote - rather that the Tory vote at 28% would be far lower than in the precedents referred to.

That's a good point, but do you fancy a small bet? Not for money - just notional. Assuming the LibDem total vote in the next GE is in the range 11-15% I predict no more than 15 seats, and most likely 12. What's your prediction given those circumstances?

As I don't want to overlap with your prediction, I would say 16-20 on the same assumption. For the SNP, I expect 48-52, with SNP losses to Labour counterbalanced by gains from the Tories. In 1997, which could be a good comparator, the Lib Dems went from 18 seats in 1992 to 46 seats despite their share of the vote falling by 1.0%, simply because the electorate had decided to vote tactically to get Tories out. John Major wasn't unpopular as a PM in the same way that the current PM is so it is reasonable to expect the Tory vote to be below the 30.7% he achieved.

[moosepoll]

I think people will just vote to oust the Tories after this absolute shocking few months

[leftieliberal]

Oct 16, 2022 23:20:25 GMT lefthanging said:

Oct 16, 2022 19:49:08 GMT @crofty said:

“Of course I suppose the above is just an interesting diversion if one doesn't see the words of Jesus as authoritative.”

Given how long after his “life” the myths started and that plenty of people argue that such a person never even existed, taking his supposed words as authoritative doesn’t seem a good idea to me at all.

Such people don't have a clue what they're talking about I'm afraid!

Without meaning to jump down the back of your throat - oh who am I kidding, I love a good throat and the back is clearly the best part - I can safely say that no serious historian thinks the idea that Jesus 'never even existed' is even remotely plausible. 'Jesus mythicism' is crank history and on the same level as denying the existence of Julius Caesar or the moon landings. It's just another myth invented in the 18th century - arguably with roots in anti-Catholic religious sectarianism - and either way totally at odds with the historical method.

History for Atheists historyforatheists.com/ is a very good source if you want to see the wrong-thinking of the Jesus Mythicists (and much else) exposed. 

[robbiealive]

Oct 17, 2022 7:27:30 GMT steve said:

Hunt announcing an effort to achieve single market and customs union membership would do wonders for the Tory party survival prospects.

There was a headline in the Telegraph yesterday to a paywall article which argued?  that the Tories would never stabilise as long as they were gripped by cognitive dissonance: namely, that their absolute faith in Brexit was completely undisturbed by any evidence that things were not going well. But this dissonance seems in practice to grip Labour & even the Lib Dems: Labour accept the sanctity, if not the perfection, of the post-Brexit arrangements, for fear of re-awakening the Kraken of the Red Wall or the "left-behind" Leave voters, who were an essential part of Johnson's '19 Coalition. This is not an original point: but if the Brexit arrangements are a serious drag on the economy then it does seem v odd that we can sail thru the next 2 years & even a GE without discussing the Jumbo in the room.

In general i'm sick of politics & don't think dwelling on them is good for one. I'm sick of the Tories saying taxes down one week, and up the next, and public expenditure cuts every week; sick of them promising energy subsidies for two years & then frightening people by pulling the rug from under them a month later; and what will happen to benefits! The ROCs on here sometimes castigate the unpatriotic lefties for for their supposed contempt of the "ordinary" voter. For the last year the Tories have shown contempt for all voters, whom they regard as nothing more than hapless pawns in their power games. No wonder we spit & snarl. 

I'm now going to do a Crossbat & announce my afternoon schedule. To cut our privet hedge, literally 22 yards long, 8ft high, several feet wide, now known of course as Sophia.

[alec]

I have vague memories of our colin explaining why Truss' 2 year freeze was better than Labour's miserly six month proposal, which was, in fact, far, far better when considering the fiscal position and the need to adapt and adjust as time ticks by.

Will be interesting to see the response from many of those Tories now.

[alec]

Remarkable similarities with Reagan's 1981 tax giveaway budget. That crashed the public finances, damage that took years to recover from, (and arguable they never have fully recovered). The budget comprised the biggest ever tax cuts in US federal history, followed a year later by the biggest ever peacetime tax rises in history.

The only difference is that took a year, this took 40 days.

[wb61]

alec

"The only difference is that took a year, this took 40 days."

Very biblical!

[robbiealive]

Oct 17, 2022 11:15:48 GMT alec said:

I have vague memories of our colin explaining why Truss' 2 year freeze was better than Labour's miserly six month proposal, which was, in fact, far, far better when considering the fiscal position and the need to adapt and adjust as time ticks by.

Will be interesting to see the response from many of those Tories now.

True. As remarked at the time Starmer's plan was the politics of getting households thru the winter & thinking again in the spring. But he also accepted the 1p cut in income tax which didn't seem wise at the time but which will probably have been forgotten.