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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2022 22:59:08 GMT
The key point here though is not so much the level of the LibDem vote - rather that the Tory vote at 28% would be far lower than in the precedents referred to. That's a good point, but do you fancy a small bet? Not for money - just notional. Assuming the LibDem total vote in the next GE is in the range 11-15% I predict no more than 15 seats, and most likely 12. What's your prediction given those circumstances? If the LDs poll circa 12%/13% with the Tory vote at circa 30% , I can certainly see the LDs ending up with 25 - 30 seats. The key point is not really the LD vote share but the extent of any fall in the Tory vote! |
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Post by ptarmigan on Oct 16, 2022 23:01:06 GMT
pjw1961 If that poll is predicting 13% of the vote for LibDems and 39 seats, which I think is right from piecing together bits of info from different posters, it would be unprecedented. Historical records show (for LibDems and their antecedents) 1964 11.2% 9 seats 1979 13.8% 11 seats 2019 11.6% 11 seats Those were the closest percentages I could find since 1945. I know that every election is different but I have found in the past that overall percentage vote for a particular party is a pretty good guide to the seats won - particularly for LibDems. I was closest to predicting their result in one of the recent GEs when most experts and posters on here were predicting much higher seats than they actually got. Ah but... 1992 17.8% 20 seats 1997 16.8% 46 seats The obvious parallel here is the collapse of the Tory vote. 13/15 of the current top Lib Dem target seats would only require a 5% or less swing from Con to Lib so, whilst 39 seats does look a little high, there's a fair amount of low hanging fruit which the Lib Dems ought to be able to grab. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 16, 2022 23:07:55 GMT
pjw1961 If that poll is predicting 13% of the vote for LibDems and 39 seats, which I think is right from piecing together bits of info from different posters, it would be unprecedented. Historical records show (for LibDems and their antecedents) 1964 11.2% 9 seats 1979 13.8% 11 seats 2019 11.6% 11 seats Those were the closest percentages I could find since 1945. I know that every election is different but I have found in the past that overall percentage vote for a particular party is a pretty good guide to the seats won - particularly for LibDems. I was closest to predicting their result in one of the recent GEs when most experts and posters on here were predicting much higher seats than they actually got. Ah but... 1992 17.8% 20 seats 1997 16.8% 46 seats The obvious parallel here is the collapse of the Tory vote. 13/15 of current Lib Dem target seats would only require a 5% or less swing from Con to Lib so, whilst 39 seats does look a little high, there's a fair amount of low hanging fruit which the Lib Dems ought to be able to grab. So do you want to make an actual prediction? |
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Post by mercian on Oct 16, 2022 23:09:32 GMT
That's a good point, but do you fancy a small bet? Not for money - just notional. Assuming the LibDem total vote in the next GE is in the range 11-15% I predict no more than 15 seats, and most likely 12. What's your prediction given those circumstances? If the LDs poll circa 12%/13% with the Tory vote at circa 30% , I can certainly see the LDs ending up with 25 - 30 seats. The key point is not really the LD vote share but the extent of any fall in the Tory vote! I take the point. We'll see what actually happens. |
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Post by lefthanging on Oct 16, 2022 23:20:25 GMT
“Of course I suppose the above is just an interesting diversion if one doesn't see the words of Jesus as authoritative.” Given how long after his “life” the myths started and that plenty of people argue that such a person never even existed, taking his supposed words as authoritative doesn’t seem a good idea to me at all. Such people don't have a clue what they're talking about I'm afraid! Without meaning to jump down the back of your throat - oh who am I kidding, I love a good throat and the back is clearly the best part - I can safely say that no serious historian thinks the idea that Jesus 'never even existed' is even remotely plausible. 'Jesus mythicism' is crank history and on the same level as denying the existence of Julius Caesar or the moon landings. It's just another myth invented in the 18th century - arguably with roots in anti-Catholic religious sectarianism - and either way totally at odds with the historical method. Btw, seen as you mention the amount of time it took for the stories about Jesus to be written down, the scholarly consensus is that the earliest letters of the New Testament - themselves clearly based on earlier oral traditions - date to around 15 years after Jesus' death, so perhaps not as long as you were thinking. Either way the quality of the sources we have for the life of Jesus - the number of texts, the diversity of the testimony, and the closeness in time to the subject matter - are second to none for any figure from antiquity, and indeed most of recorded history. That's not to say his words are worth listening to obviously - let alone authoritative - but we can be as about as certain that Jesus existed as pretty much any other historical figure. But sorry no I don't have any polling on that  |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 16, 2022 23:27:25 GMT
Haven't they used the wrong picture of "King Charles" as the monarch takes personal charge of his realm?
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Post by jayblanc on Oct 16, 2022 23:33:21 GMT
I think that Coffey's Suffolk Coastal seat, which needs a 17.6% swing would be among the hardest targets to fall per these figures. After allowing for Lab gains from SNP (17?) it would seem that on UNS, those 411 seats would take Lab gains from Con down to number 223 on their targets list, which would include Fylde, Wantage and Tatton. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labourMaybe a caution against using Suffolk Coastal as an example, since Local Politics can turn Personal very quickly, and Therese Coffey is no John Gummer. It is of particular note that Aldeburgh Cottage Hospital's ability to stay open and functional was already on a knife edge... |
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Post by moby on Oct 17, 2022 5:14:08 GMT
Looks like they can't wait any longer to reassure the bond markets. So I assume sometime today Truss and Hunt will sit together on the front bench and announce the complete reversal of the mini budget announced 3 weeks ago. She will then try and continue as PM as if nothing ever happened.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2022 5:51:12 GMT
Hard too think how much further Hunt could go in scrapping Truss's agenda, only thing of substance left is the reversal of the National Insurance rise, which I can't see him doing. It could be he will talk about specific spending cuts of course. Then again it may just be a courtesy to Parliament to announce what he is doing there, as is the normal requirement, instead of to the media
The question is will the PM in name only, Truss, last until the end of the week?
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 5:59:08 GMT
mercian In 1997 the lib dems received 46 seats from 16.8% their vote share fell 1% from 1992 however the collapse of the Tory vote saw their representation rise by 28. Given that I strongly suspect the greens won't receive 7% in a general election primarily because they don't have the resources to actively campaign everywhere and tactical voting I would expect their vote share to be reasonably evenly distributed between the lib dems and Labour in the English seats they don't campaign in.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 6:28:37 GMT
Ah but... 1992 17.8% 20 seats 1997 16.8% 46 seats The obvious parallel here is the collapse of the Tory vote. 13/15 of current Lib Dem target seats would only require a 5% or less swing from Con to Lib so, whilst 39 seats does look a little high, there's a fair amount of low hanging fruit which the Lib Dems ought to be able to grab. So do you want to make an actual prediction? I'm happy to have a go. 39 feels too high to me, but with an "Anybody but Tory" mood around and a spot of tactical voting, 13% could get the Lib Dems around 25 seats. I also have a feeling they might hold the ones they have in Scotland on the basis of unionist tactical voting against the SNP which helps the numbers a little. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Oct 17, 2022 6:40:21 GMT
I think the amount of Lib Dem seats doesn’t just depend on how low the Tory vote goes, but also in how high the Labour vote goes. If it looks likely that it will be a landslide people like me will vote Labour as we’d want to but if polls narrow to the point where it becomes ABT then I’d vote liberal if they stood the best chance of removing our Tory MP.
I wouldn’t be making any predictions on this until a few months out from the election, but there again, I’m no fun 🙂
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Post by johntel on Oct 17, 2022 6:56:01 GMT
I see, somewhat bizarrely, that the football team that I support appears to attract an inordinate amount of interest on this forum. Some concern too, it would appear. A particularly noisy Nottingham Forest supporter offering lots of opinion. One would have thought he might have rather more serious concerns of his own. Lots of sob story, whingeing about bad luck, we wuz robbed etc .. Fine lines, Batty, fine lines. Actually my wife is from Brum and supports the Villa, not that she knows anything about football. |
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 17, 2022 6:56:27 GMT
Having set a question yesterday thank you for the answers. I have been somewhat puzzled by my response to Justin Welby, especially so given my own atheism, so I think a little more detailed examination of my thinking on the issue is needed.
It was during the first and second lockdowns that I first became aware of a huge gap in the public discourse, here was an opportunity or even obligation for the leader of the established church to offer something to the whole population. A message of support, of compassion and yes even of religious hope for those who believed. I was only aware of a deafening silence, of a lacuna where I expected something. It is possible of course, that the media was so wholly filled with statistics and epidemiology that there was no room for the Archbishop's voice, but that didn't seem to be happening.
I was genuinely concerned for those people in my own community who went to church regularly and were unable to access that support. I have since been told that the CoE has some dedicated social media feeds and used those, but the public voice of reassurance or whatever was missing in action in my view. I wonder what previous holders of the office might have offered, and whether Justin Welby was simply the victim of the modern anti-establishment and anti-intelectual feeling of the current political discourse.
As I said thank you for the replies, I was hoping for a few more from the other non-believers on here, but perhaps this is only my gentle obsession.
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Post by moby on Oct 17, 2022 7:08:54 GMT
The question is will the PM in name only, Truss, last until the end of the week? It seems he's releasing a press release first and making a statement to the House later. Surely a statement of such significance covering financial matters should go straight to the House and not released to the press first? |
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Post by EmCat on Oct 17, 2022 7:11:44 GMT
Looks like they can't wait any longer to reassure the bond markets. So I assume sometime today Truss and Hunt will sit together on the front bench and announce the complete reversal of the mini budget announced 3 weeks ago. She will then try and continue as PM as if nothing ever happened. From time to time, people have made flippant remarks that sometimes politics can be a bit like a soap opera. I hadn't realised that they were now adopting the shower scene from Dallaswww.mentalfloss.com/article/79815/bad-dreams-when-bobby-ewing-returned-dallasRetconning the last few days/weeks/months is a bold move |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2022 7:22:29 GMT
Hard too think how much further Hunt could go in scrapping Truss's agenda, only thing of substance left is the reversal of the National Insurance rise, which I can't see him doing. It could be he will talk about specific spending cuts of course. Then again it may just be a courtesy to Parliament to announce what he is doing there, as is the normal requirement, instead of to the media The question is will the PM in name only, Truss, last until the end of the week? Pundit on R4 arguing that the tax cuts cuts arent the only problem. That the underlying revenue v expenditure situation has been deteriorating and they might need to find another 20-30 billion simply for that. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 7:27:30 GMT
Hunt announcing an effort to achieve single market and customs union membership would do wonders for the Tory party survival prospects.
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Post by hireton on Oct 17, 2022 7:36:27 GMT
The Tory far right now opting for the conspiracy explanation:
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 7:45:11 GMT
Hunt announcing an effort to achieve single market and customs union membership would do wonders for the Tory party survival prospects. It would be good for the country but would mean civil war in the Tory Party so doesn't do much for them. Obviously I would see that as a win-win. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 7:52:45 GMT
pjw1961 You mean there isn't civil war in the Tory party now?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2022 8:01:07 GMT
Hunt announcing an effort to achieve single market and customs union membership would do wonders for the Tory party survival prospects. Theyre going to try to head off labour and become more rejoin than the party whose members want to rejoin.
Its inevitable, because thats where the voters inceasingly are. But labour isnt!
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 8:10:23 GMT
@danny
The Labour leadership might not be their members are , but I don't think the Labour party are remotely doctrinal brexitanians and things can change rapidly.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 8:13:34 GMT
pjw1961 You mean there isn't civil war in the Tory party now? Yes, but you ain't seen nothing yet if Brexit is reversed by the Tories at this stage. For one thing we would see the zombified corpse of Nigel Farage rise from the grave screaming 'betrayal' and I expect Boris Johnson would suddenly remember he was a Brexiter as well. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 8:22:55 GMT
pjw1961 If the tories move towards single market membership and it has the anticipated huge positive impact Spaffer will be out there rewriting history and saying it was his idea.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 8:27:56 GMT
I see, somewhat bizarrely, that the football team that I support appears to attract an inordinate amount of interest on this forum. Some concern too, it would appear. A particularly noisy Nottingham Forest supporter offering lots of opinion. One would have thought he might have rather more serious concerns of his own. Lots of sob story, whingeing about bad luck, we wuz robbed etc .. Fine lines, Batty, fine lines. Actually my wife is from Brum and supports the Villa, not that she knows anything about football. Your good wife may know very little about football but her choice of football clubs suggests that, relatively speaking, she may at least know rather more than you. By the way, will your avatar photo choice, Jesse Lingard, be stood down to commemorate his first goal for the club? Next season maybe? He should tear up the Championship! 🥴😂 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 8:34:26 GMT
pjw1961 If that poll is predicting 13% of the vote for LibDems and 39 seats, which I think is right from piecing together bits of info from different posters, it would be unprecedented. Historical records show (for LibDems and their antecedents) 1964 11.2% 9 seats 1979 13.8% 11 seats 2019 11.6% 11 seats Those were the closest percentages I could find since 1945. I know that every election is different but I have found in the past that overall percentage vote for a particular party is a pretty good guide to the seats won - particularly for LibDems. I was closest to predicting their result in one of the recent GEs when most experts and posters on here were predicting much higher seats than they actually got.
UKIP managed just shy of 13% in 2015 and won only 1 seat. Of course, the LibDems do better because their support is very concentrated - mostly in seats where Labour have never been popular and people vote LD to punish the Tories.
My guess for the next election is 23 LD seats. I'm possibly being a teeny weeny bit too kind to them there... They'll win back some of the usual suspects (Kingston, St Ives etc) but ones like Eastleigh and Romsey are perhaps a little out of their reach nowadays. They're not the PR force to reckon with they were 20 years ago.*
*In fact, while researching recent LD results I uncovered the rather shocking fact that they currently hold only 2 of the paltry 8 seats they won in 2015! They've gradually been winning back a handful (and some new seats e.g. St Albans) but they've been pretty good at losing them too..
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 8:43:23 GMT
As one or two posters have already implied, the good Hammer Dave particularly, the propensity for tactical voting and the ganging up of centre left voters to oust Tory MPs, may skew the vote share/seat gain ratio at an actual election, thereby rendering seat projections based on current polls inaccurate.
If we think, as the MRP does, a 43/28 Labour/Tory result in 2024, sort of mimicking the 1997 result, then quite a few Tory/Lib Dem marginals could fall into Lib Dem hands on what looks a poorish national vote share. Lib Dem voters lending votes to Labour in all sorts of Con/Lab marginals, but polling strongly in the much smaller number of seats where they're close to the Tories. Labour and Green voters there aiding the Lib Dem candidates.
Of course, it's difficult to predict to what extent this will happen, and the behaviour may be random and patchy nationwide, but I could see a lowish Lib Dem vote share gleaning a good seat tally.
Depends in many ways if the "get rid of the Tories" national consensus we saw in 1997 exists in 2024. There are many straws in the wind now that suggest it might.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 8:59:35 GMT
I love the classic Toryspeak we often get from Toryland.
Labour are never elected they're always "let in".
Very Tea Party. Labour never have a democratic right to govern.
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Post by hireton on Oct 17, 2022 9:36:05 GMT
This IpsosMori poll is grim reading for the Tory Party. I can't find the poll results in detail at the moment so the ES article will have to suffice for the moment:
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