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Post by mercian on Oct 16, 2022 19:21:41 GMT
mercian All the CoE clergy I've known, inc in my wider family, do not really hide their clear loc leanings. They're altogether too wishy-washy these days. I was baptised a Methodist though never confirmed. We took the kids to church when they were small because of the good moral influence. Methodists are sometimes seen as a sort of branch of CoE, after all Wesley was an Anglican minister. Anyway I well remember that just after the Archbishop of York had denied the resurrection (IIRC) and York Minster was struck by lightning, our minister got up in the pulpit which he didn't usually do and made a blistering attack on the Anglicans, full of fire and brimstone. Great stuff! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2022 19:26:28 GMT
New this year: "The Tory advent calendar 2022" - open the little doors in the run up to Christmas and behind each is a new Prime Minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer appointed that day! 24 in all to collect! Hurry to get yours, as it is all going fast (down hill that is).
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Post by hireton on Oct 16, 2022 19:46:06 GMT
A different Panelbase independence poll:
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2022 19:49:08 GMT
“Of course I suppose the above is just an interesting diversion if one doesn't see the words of Jesus as authoritative.”
Given how long after his “life” the myths started and that plenty of people argue that such a person never even existed, taking his supposed words as authoritative doesn’t seem a good idea to me at all.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2022 20:07:56 GMT
Panelbase/Alba (7-11 Oct) Westminster VI SNP 42 (-3 on 5-7 Oct) Lab 30 (nc) Con 16 (+1) LDm 6 (+1) Grn 2 (*) Alba 2 (*) Holyrood Constituency VI SNP 45 (-2 on 17-19 Aug) Lab 28 (+6) Con 15 (-2) LDm 6 (-3) Grn 3 (nc) Alba 3 (*) Holyrood List VI SNP 37 (-4 on 17-19 Aug) Lab 26 (+4) Con 17 (-2) Grn 9 (+1) LDm 7 (nc) Alba 4 (*)
The Westminster vote shares imply a swing of 7.2% to Labour from SNP since 2019 and would suggest 10 Labour gains with 1 seat neck and neck.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2022 20:18:54 GMT
“Of course I suppose the above is just an interesting diversion if one doesn't see the words of Jesus as authoritative.” Given how long after his “life” the myths started and that plenty of people argue that such a person never even existed, taking his supposed words as authoritative doesn’t seem a good idea to me at all. There is a lot of debate about what that saying means anyway. Many interpretations, some of which reach essentially opposite conclusions: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Render_unto_Caesar |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 16, 2022 20:22:27 GMT
A poll by Opinium for the Trades Union Congress using the MRP method to estimate constituency-level results, projected a 1997-style landslide for Labour, with the party winning 411 seats.
It suggests the Conservatives would lose 219 seats to end up on 137, with the Liberal Democrats on 39 seats and SNP on 37, with 10 cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Thérèse Coffey losing their seats in a general election, along with former prime minister Boris Johnson.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2022 20:29:48 GMT
A poll by Opinium for the Trades Union Congress using the MRP method to estimate constituency-level results, projected a 1997-style landslide for Labour, with the party winning 411 seats. It suggests the Conservatives would lose 219 seats to end up on 137, with the Liberal Democrats on 39 seats and SNP on 37, with 10 cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Thérèse Coffey losing their seats in a general election, along with former prime minister Boris Johnson. More realistic numbers than the projections that have the Tories under 100 seats (that is not going to happen) but I suspect our Scottish correspondents won't be buying the SNP 37 figure. Lib Dem number is at the high end of expectations. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 16, 2022 20:51:41 GMT
pjw1961Of course 137 would be the worst result ever achieved by the tories and the lowest total ever achieved under universal suffrage for a party finishing second.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 16, 2022 20:51:58 GMT
A poll by Opinium for the Trades Union Congress using the MRP method to estimate constituency-level results, projected a 1997-style landslide for Labour, with the party winning 411 seats. It suggests the Conservatives would lose 219 seats to end up on 137, with the Liberal Democrats on 39 seats and SNP on 37, with 10 cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Thérèse Coffey losing their seats in a general election, along with former prime minister Boris Johnson. More realistic numbers than the projections that have the Tories under 100 seats (that is not going to happen) but I suspect our Scottish correspondents won't be buying the SNP 37 figure. Lib Dem number is at the high end of expectations.
whatscotlandthinks.org/2022/10/how-much-of-a-challenge-do-labour-pose-to-the-snp/
As I've pointed out before, if UK Unionist support rallies behind either SLab or SCon, different seats come into play, and the overall number of SNP seats remains much the same. It would take a big shift from SNP to SLab to change that - and of course, that might happen.
[1] I have seen references on here to the polling commentaries of "Curtis". Tony died in 2010, and even then was not notable for his psephological prognostications on Scottish, GB, or UK politics. |
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Post by RAF on Oct 16, 2022 20:56:11 GMT
More realistic numbers than the projections that have the Tories under 100 seats (that is not going to happen) but I suspect our Scottish correspondents won't be buying the SNP 37 figure. Lib Dem number is at the high end of expectations.
whatscotlandthinks.org/2022/10/how-much-of-a-challenge-do-labour-pose-to-the-snp/
As I've pointed out before, if UK Unionist support rallies behind either SLab or SCon, different seats come into play, and the overall number of SNP seats remains much the same. It would take a big shift from SNP to SLab to change that - and of course, that might happen.
[1] I have seen references on here to the polling commentaries of "Curtis". Tony died in 2010, and even then was not notable for his psephological prognostications on Scottish, GB, or UK politics. Oh, I don't know. Tony Curtis was very open with his views on most aspects of life. He may well have ventured an opinion on the politics of the UK had he been asked. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 16, 2022 20:57:47 GMT
How things change, people complaining that they could only get a Doctors appointment in 48 hours!
Interesting as well to see a Prime Minister prepared to face the electorate and not a carefilly selected hand picked audience
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Post by RAF on Oct 16, 2022 21:14:45 GMT
How things change, people complaining that they could only get a Doctors appointment in 48 hours! Interesting as well to see a Prime Minister prepared to face the electorate and not a carefilly selected hand picked audience Tony Blair always listened to and answered questions - generally very politely. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2022 21:19:58 GMT
pjw1961 Of course 137 would be the worst result ever achieved by the tories and the lowest total ever achieved under universal suffrage for a party finishing second. It would, but I will be surprised if they go that low in practice. It is reasonable to expect some swing back to the Conservatives as the election approaches even if it is only the 'don't knows' getting back on board. 150+ would be my expectation, 200 if they ditch Truss and get someone who looks boring and safe as leader. |
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Post by James E on Oct 16, 2022 21:20:47 GMT
A poll by Opinium for the Trades Union Congress using the MRP method to estimate constituency-level results, projected a 1997-style landslide for Labour, with the party winning 411 seats. It suggests the Conservatives would lose 219 seats to end up on 137, with the Liberal Democrats on 39 seats and SNP on 37, with 10 cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Thérèse Coffey losing their seats in a general election, along with former prime minister Boris Johnson. More realistic numbers than the projections that have the Tories under 100 seats (that is not going to happen) but I suspect our Scottish correspondents won't be buying the SNP 37 figure. Lib Dem number is at the high end of expectations. This is based on Opinium's polling so we can assume that it reflects their weighting methodology which generally produces the lowest Labour leads of any regular pollster. As you say, this does make it look rather more realistic. I think that Coffey's Suffolk Coastal seat, which needs a 17.6% swing would be among the hardest targets to fall per these figures. After allowing for Lab gains from SNP (17?) it would seem that on UNS, those 411 seats would take Lab gains from Con down to number 223 on their targets list, which would include Fylde, Wantage and Tatton. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour |
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Post by eor on Oct 16, 2022 21:27:48 GMT
jib - like I say, Carney didn't say 'GDP', but maybe that is what he meant? See this - This graph shows that 2015 wasn't actually an exception - more of a return to the pre-financial crash norm. In this context, it appears much more salient to consider that the UK economy was c 90% of Germany, then was badly affected by the financial crash, recovering back to the 2000 level by 2015, and then tanking after the referendum vote. So whether Carney meant GDP or gross economic value, he will be correct, I think. Brexit has been very bad indeed for the British economy, and there are no figures that counter this. - thanks for your thorough attempts to answer my question about Carney's figures. As he's a central banker rather than a politician I remembered the old quote often attributed to Alan Greenspan before a speech - "if you think you've clearly understood me, you probably haven't." I did think about exchange rate before I posted the question, but dismissed it because I figured the same effect in reverse would have made the UK economy grow equally sharply relative to Germany's in the first half of the last decade, and that period is not usually cited as being an impressive UK performance at all. So your graph above is particularly illuminating - one of those cases where choosing one of several quite justifiable start points can make a huge difference to what the baseline would be and thus the expectations of "normal" performance. I don't dispute the wider point about Brexit, the stuff you and others have posted on exports for example has made that clear. I just wanted to better understand the contrast Carney was drawing here, which thanks to the detail from yourself and others I think I now do! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2022 21:27:55 GMT
More realistic numbers than the projections that have the Tories under 100 seats (that is not going to happen) but I suspect our Scottish correspondents won't be buying the SNP 37 figure. Lib Dem number is at the high end of expectations.
whatscotlandthinks.org/2022/10/how-much-of-a-challenge-do-labour-pose-to-the-snp/
As I've pointed out before, if UK Unionist support rallies behind either SLab or SCon, different seats come into play, and the overall number of SNP seats remains much the same. It would take a big shift from SNP to SLab to change that - and of course, that might happen.
[1] I have seen references on here to the polling commentaries of "Curtis". Tony died in 2010, and even then was not notable for his psephological prognostications on Scottish, GB, or UK politics.I don't consider Curtice to be one of our Scottish correspondents because he isn't (although he would be very welcome) but I recognise his expertise. I am one of the people who doesn't take the Graham/crossbat view of Labour's increased vote share in Scotland turning into seats. I think it will just give them a lot of improved second places. My estimate of Labour seats in Scotland is 3 to 7 - average 5. Meanwhile the SNP will pick up the SCon's 6 seats. SNP VI seems locked in at over (possibly well over) 40% so they should win 45+ seats. 37 looks too low. Graham would not agree and only time and an election will tell. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 16, 2022 21:31:37 GMT
How things change, people complaining that they could only get a Doctors appointment in 48 hours! Interesting as well to see a Prime Minister prepared to face the electorate and not a carefilly selected hand picked audience Tony Blair always listened to and answered questions - generally very politely. In order to convincingly answer un-prepped for questions as a senior politician it’s not just a case of wanting to do it, they need to have the knowledge, quick wittedness, confident charm and eloquence to handle it successfully. Brown I’d suggest certainly had the first two, Cameron, if I were being generous, the last two. All the PMs since? Barely any at all. Blair could do all of them, all day. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 16, 2022 21:36:30 GMT
I see, somewhat bizarrely, that the football team that I support appears to attract an inordinate amount of interest on this forum. Some concern too, it would appear. A particularly noisy Nottingham Forest supporter offering lots of opinion. One would have thought he might have rather more serious concerns of his own.
As for the game against Chelsea today, after gifting them an early goal we completely dominated the game thereafter, hitting the woodwork twice, drawing extraordinary saves from the keeper and missing glaring chances too. How we didn't score, I'll never know, but it was a very encouraging performance. Their second goal on the hour killed it and we faded.
Life in the old dog and hope for better things to come.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 16, 2022 21:44:58 GMT
Looks like the new (far) right coalition gvt in Italy is already in trouble. Meloni and Berlusconi already at each other’s throats, the later saying he can’t work with the former. Salvini sidelined and under pressure from his own side as the Lega didn’t actually do that well in the recent election compared to the Fratelli d’Italia.
’Twas reliably ever thus.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2022 21:57:23 GMT
Projected vote shares for the Opinium MRP were Labour 43%, Conservatives 28%, Lib Dems 13%, Green 7%, SNP 4% - which don't look too wildly improbable. I still struggle to believe the Tories will fall below 30%, but given the general voter de-alignment it is certainly possible.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2022 22:07:47 GMT
Projected vote shares for the Opinium MRP were Labour 43%, Conservatives 28%, Lib Dems 13%, Green 7%, SNP 4% - which don't look too wildly improbable. I still struggle to believe the Tories will fall below 30%, but given the general voter de-alignment it is certainly possible. I don't expect the Greens to poll anything like as high as 7% in GE. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 16, 2022 22:09:36 GMT
It would, but I will be surprised if they go that low in practice. It is reasonable to expect some swing back to the Conservatives as the election approaches even if it is only the 'don't knows' getting back on board. 150+ would be my expectation, 200 if they ditch Truss and get someone who looks boring and safe as leader. I wonder whether pollsters are really asking the right questions why people are deserting con? Seen a bit of polling how people think on different standard issues, whether doing bad or well, but how do we know which of these issues really matter? How an election ends up might depend on exactly what is bothering them. For example, that Con promised Brexit would bring a new prosperity to the Uk. But now its kinda...crap. Exactly how that comes about, whether its because of brexit or covid or energy or Ukraine, might not exactly matter but be a fuzzy sort of everything going wrong. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 16, 2022 22:24:52 GMT
pjw1961If that poll is predicting 13% of the vote for LibDems and 39 seats, which I think is right from piecing together bits of info from different posters, it would be unprecedented. Historical records show (for LibDems and their antecedents) 1964 11.2% 9 seats 1979 13.8% 11 seats 2019 11.6% 11 seats Those were the closest percentages I could find since 1945. I know that every election is different but I have found in the past that overall percentage vote for a particular party is a pretty good guide to the seats won - particularly for LibDems. I was closest to predicting their result in one of the recent GEs when most experts and posters on here were predicting much higher seats than they actually got.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2022 22:27:06 GMT
I don't know whether you consider Sir John Curtice [1] to be a "Scottish correspondent", but I tend to prefer his neutral and informed analysis to partisans on my side or the other of the indy debate.
whatscotlandthinks.org/2022/10/how-much-of-a-challenge-do-labour-pose-to-the-snp/
As I've pointed out before, if UK Unionist support rallies behind either SLab or SCon, different seats come into play, and the overall number of SNP seats remains much the same. It would take a big shift from SNP to SLab to change that - and of course, that might happen.
[1] I have seen references on here to the polling commentaries of "Curtis". Tony died in 2010, and even then was not notable for his psephological prognostications on Scottish, GB, or UK politics. I don't consider Curtice to be one of our Scottish correspondents because he isn't (although he would be very welcome) but I recognise his expertise. I am one of the people who doesn't take the Graham/crossbat view of Labour's increased vote share in Scotland turning into seats. I think it will just give them a lot of improved second places. My estimate of Labour seats in Scotland is 3 to 7 - average 5. Meanwhile the SNP will pick up the SCon's 6 seats. SNP VI seems locked in at over (possibly well over) 40% so they should win 45+ seats. 37 looks too low. Graham would not agree and only time and an election will tell. You are quite correct that I tend to disagree - though the details of that MRP poll re-Scotland have yet to emerge. Nevertheless a total of 37 SNP MPs is not out of line with what we saw in 2017 - though Labour now likely to be stronger at Tory expense. The poll is also some 2 weeks old so may understate the extent of a shift towards Labour. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2022 22:30:20 GMT
pjw1961 If that poll is predicting 13% of the vote for LibDems and 39 seats, which I think is right from piecing together bits of info from different posters, it would be unprecedented. Historical records show (for LibDems and their antecedents) 1964 11.2% 9 seats 1979 13.8% 11 seats 2019 11.6% 11 seats Those were the closest percentages I could find since 1945. I know that every election is different but I have found in the past that overall percentage vote for a particular party is a pretty good guide to the seats won - particularly for LibDems. I was closest to predicting their result in one of the recent GEs when most experts and posters on here were predicting much higher seats than they actually got. The key point here though is not so much the level of the LibDem vote - rather that the Tory vote at 28% would be far lower than in the precedents referred to. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 16, 2022 22:34:01 GMT
jib - like I say, Carney didn't say 'GDP', but maybe that is what he meant? See this - This graph shows that 2015 wasn't actually an exception - more of a return to the pre-financial crash norm. In this context, it appears much more salient to consider that the UK economy was c 90% of Germany, then was badly affected by the financial crash, recovering back to the 2000 level by 2015, and then tanking after the referendum vote. So whether Carney meant GDP or gross economic value, he will be correct, I think. Brexit has been very bad indeed for the British economy, and there are no figures that counter this. I'd agree with you that on the basis of this graph, both 2008 and 2015 were years when something went wrong in the UK compared to germany, and the obvious things which happened at that time were the US bank securities fraud in 2008 or thereabouts, and the start of brexit campaign in 2015. However, the timebase of this graph isnt enough to claim that the period 97-2008 was the norm, rather than a random particularly good period. Which incidentally coincided with a labour government. You could argue it means lab government is good for the ecoonomy. Another message con wouldnt like. You might argue that a recovery took place approaching 2015 because con's actions were mitigated by libs, and in anticipation of a return to lab government in 2015. Which then colapsed because they didnt win. There is certainly no evidence con are good for the economy, despite their claims. Indeed the events of the last few weeks might suggest that carried to the logical conclusion, con policies are extremely bad for the economy. And thats what markets think. |
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Post by eor on Oct 16, 2022 22:41:00 GMT
Projected vote shares for the Opinium MRP were Labour 43%, Conservatives 28%, Lib Dems 13%, Green 7%, SNP 4% - which don't look too wildly improbable. I still struggle to believe the Tories will fall below 30%, but given the general voter de-alignment it is certainly possible. I don't expect the Greens to poll anything like as high as 7% in GE. When it comes to the actual GE campaign, if a very substantial Labour win appears a foregone conclusion then that, coupled with a relative lack of love for Starmer from his left, could lead to rather less squeeze on the Green VI than we're used to seeing in England & Wales? |
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Post by mercian on Oct 16, 2022 22:53:14 GMT
pjw1961 If that poll is predicting 13% of the vote for LibDems and 39 seats, which I think is right from piecing together bits of info from different posters, it would be unprecedented. Historical records show (for LibDems and their antecedents) 1964 11.2% 9 seats 1979 13.8% 11 seats 2019 11.6% 11 seats Those were the closest percentages I could find since 1945. I know that every election is different but I have found in the past that overall percentage vote for a particular party is a pretty good guide to the seats won - particularly for LibDems. I was closest to predicting their result in one of the recent GEs when most experts and posters on here were predicting much higher seats than they actually got. The key point here though is not so much the level of the LibDem vote - rather that the Tory vote at 28% would be far lower than in the precedents referred to. That's a good point, but do you fancy a small bet? Not for money - just notional. Assuming the LibDem total vote in the next GE is in the range 11-15% I predict no more than 15 seats, and most likely 12. What's your prediction given those circumstances? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2022 22:56:13 GMT
I don't expect the Greens to poll anything like as high as 7% in GE. When it comes to the actual GE campaign, if a very substantial Labour win appears a foregone conclusion then that, coupled with a relative lack of love for Starmer from his left, could lead to rather less squeeze on the Green VI than we're used to seeing in England & Wales? I rather doubt that. Momentum is likely to firm up the anti-Tory vote in Labour's favour - as happened in 1997 after an extended period of Tory rule. Subsequent disillusionment in later years might well help the Greens. |
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