01-Oct 2022 : LAB: 46% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 6%

[crossbat11]

jib

I trust you will be getting your facts from Richard Tice and Julia Hartley-Brewer.

Go to sources for all good Brexiteers. Anything good happening, and there's precious little of that, and it will be a Brexit bonus and anything bad happening, and there is sadly quite a lot of that, is the blame of Russia, remoaners and anti-growth conspirators.

[jib]

Thanks to domjg for his usual unbiased response. Fine and dandy indeed. Undoubtedly my Lib Dem friend will be along soon.

Looking at the figures which were attributed to a well known Davos Globalist Remoaner, I can conclude that there's little worthwhile trend. Only if you use dodgy stats and base your assumption on the exceptional 2015 that the Remoaner "facts" add up.

GDP figures - $ trillions 

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Germany 3.4 3.75 3.53 3.73 3.89 3.36 3.47 3.69 3.98 3.89 3.85 4.22
UK 2.49 2.67 2.72 2.8 3.09 2.96 2.72 2.7 2.9 2.88 2.76 3.19
% 73.2 71.2 77.1 75.1 79.4 88.1 78.4 73.2 72.9 74.0 71.7 75.6


Source: World Bank

[alec]

jib and eor - I think Carney may have been referring to the gross capital value of the UK economy, rather than GDP (income). The ONS showed this as £11.4tr in 2021, but as this is denominated in £, it's comparative value will change with currency fluctuations. At the start of 2016 the £/Eur exchange rate was c 1.42, today it is c 1.14, which is a drop of nearlt exactly 20%. Therefore, all things being equal, the UK economy would lose 20% comparative capital value compared to Germany.

This does have an impact, in that foreign buyers are able to purchase assets in the UK at a much cheaper cost, and the UK has a poor record at defending our industry, housing stock etc from overseas buyers who can then offshore profits.

But I don't know what metric Carney was thinking of as he wasn't specific, but I think it's fairly safe to assume that he does in fact, know what he is talking about when it comes to economic numbers.

[bardin1]

Oct 15, 2022 22:29:10 GMT crossbat11 said:

Oct 15, 2022 22:18:17 GMT domjg said:

I presume you're talking about Hunt and I tend to agree. That's not to say I like him as a politician, or agree with him on much, but it would be a little silly to claim that he's not a serious politician with a reasonable armoury of political skills. He has considerable ministerial experience too.

These were the reasons I thought he might have been the Tories best bet as leader. He has flaws, obviously, not least his wooden demeanour as a public performer, and his ministerial record is by no means blameless. There's something of the corpospeak identikit politician about him too, but he's a serious player who will bring some much needed professionalism to Truss's cabinet.

I think it's a mistake for political opponents of the Tories to rubbish their politicians simply because we don't like them or because they play for the other team.

Some Tories can do politics quite well. Not many these days, I admit, but Hunt certainly can.

I agree and have thought for some time that of all the candidates for Tory leader post May he was the one who would have steadied the ship for them. I think a Hunt Sunak ticket would be reassuring for CON voters now, unlikely though that is to happen.

[neilj]

Conservative Home has given their verdict

[reggieside]

I think truss will be gone by the end of the week. She seems utterly friendless.  Hunt is doing damage limitation and measuring the curtains at number 10 for sunak.

[jib]

Oct 16, 2022 7:49:35 GMT alec said:

But I don't know what metric Carney was thinking of as he wasn't specific, but I think it's fairly safe to assume that he does in fact, know what he is talking about when it comes to economic numbers.

Following my fact check, I disagree,

Just another bitter Remoaner trying to put the boot in. 

[alec]

jib - like I say, Carney didn't say 'GDP', but maybe that is what he meant? See this -

This graph shows that 2015 wasn't actually an exception - more of a return to the pre-financial crash norm. In this context, it appears much more salient to consider that the UK economy was c 90% of Germany, then was badly affected by the financial crash, recovering back to the 2000 level by 2015, and then tanking after the referendum vote.

So whether Carney meant GDP or gross economic value, he will be correct, I think.

Brexit has been very bad indeed for the British economy, and there are no figures that counter this.

[alec]

jib - "Just another bitter Remoaner trying to put the boot in."

That, I think, is one of your more stupid posts. Carney isn't anything on the Brexit debate. He is a foreigner, contracted to run the BoE for a time limited period, who did not get involved in the Brexit debate (which annoyed many remainers) and since leaving his role has moved back to Canada.

It's just immature, puerile name calling to dismiss independent overseas experts with no skin in the game (who happen to have a very high reputation in their field) as being embittered remoaners.

You really should engage with the substance, instead of behaving like a child when someone comes up with inconvenient facts. It just makes you look stupid, and we know you're not.

[steve]

The influential Tory MP, Robert Halfon, said that the prime minister needs to hold a ‘fireside chat’ with the British people, who he said are frightened and dismayed.


Because sitting down with the arsonist who burned down the house is sure to restore confidence.

[domjg]

arguing over figures aside any sentient person is aware that brexit has been hugely damaging not only to the economy (an absolute bonfire of small exporters to the EU), to the country's international reputation and has gifted us the political chaos of the last few years by giving power to it's crazed backers. Not to mention messing with the lives of many of my acquaintance both British and EU citizens as well as complicating any future plans we might have to live elsewhere. Thanks jib

Silly brexit anecdote. A good friend of mine wrote a book a few years ago that sells mainly in Spain. When a new edition comes out the Spanish publisher sends him a copy. He already has a box of copies so doesn't need more. A few weeks ago they sent him a new edition copy, unbidden, which previously would have been simply delivered.

Instead he received a note asking him to pay the customs fee before receiving it. Initially he didn't even know what this was for and ignored it. They kept badgering him so he contacted the courier and told them to send it back as he didn't want it. They continued asking him to pay it, threatening him and eventually sending it to a debt collector, so threatening his credit record. All for something he'd never requested. That's brexit lunacy for you.

[jib]

Oct 16, 2022 8:05:59 GMT domjg said:

arguing over figures aside any sentient person is aware that brexit has been hugely damaging not only to the economy (an absolute bonfire of small exporters to the EU), to the country's international reputation and has gifted us the political chaos of the last few years by giving power to it's crazed backers. Not to mention messing with the lives of many of my acquaintance both British and EU citizens as well as complicating any future plans we might have to live elsewhere. Thanks jib

Silly brexit anecdote. A good friend of mine wrote a book a few years ago that sells mainly in Spain. When a new edition comes out the Spanish publisher sends him a copy. He already has a box of copies so doesn't need more. A few weeks ago they sent him a new edition copy, unbidden, which previously would have been simply delivered.

Instead he received a note asking him to pay the customs fee before receiving it. Initially he didn't even know what this was for and ignored it. They kept badgering him so he contacted the courier and told them to send it back as he didn't want it. They continued asking him to pay it, threatening him and eventually sending it to a debt collector, so threatening his credit record. All for something he'd never requested. That's brexit lunacy for you.

Dear domjg

I trade in facts, not anecdotes.

I accept Brexit is disruptive, and I'm as keen as anyone that this current Government pull the proverbial out and sort out the areas of dispute with the EU, particularly with NI where it seems the EU have said a couple of summer students with a hi-viz jacket and a clipboard will sort out the checking requirements.

I didn't want this Brexit. But it is better than no Brexit and things can, based on economic reality, only move back to a position of mutual equilibrium.

I'm also glad the nutter at No 11 was sacked and the other nutter is now fully sedated and in a straightjacket (politically wise).

[domjg]

Oct 16, 2022 8:16:35 GMT jib said:

Oct 16, 2022 8:05:59 GMT domjg said:

arguing over figures aside any sentient person is aware that brexit has been hugely damaging not only to the economy (an absolute bonfire of small exporters to the EU), to the country's international reputation and has gifted us the political chaos of the last few years by giving power to it's crazed backers. Not to mention messing with the lives of many of my acquaintance both British and EU citizens as well as complicating any future plans we might have to live elsewhere. Thanks jib

Silly brexit anecdote. A good friend of mine wrote a book a few years ago that sells mainly in Spain. When a new edition comes out the Spanish publisher sends him a copy. He already has a box of copies so doesn't need more. A few weeks ago they sent him a new edition copy, unbidden, which previously would have been simply delivered.

Instead he received a note asking him to pay the customs fee before receiving it. Initially he didn't even know what this was for and ignored it. They kept badgering him so he contacted the courier and told them to send it back as he didn't want it. They continued asking him to pay it, threatening him and eventually sending it to a debt collector, so threatening his credit record. All for something he'd never requested. That's brexit lunacy for you.

Dear domjg

I trade in facts, not anecdotes.

I accept Brexit is disruptive, and I'm as keen as anyone that this current Government pull the proverbial out and sort out the areas of dispute with the EU, particularly with NI where it seems the EU have said a couple of summer students with a hi-viz jacket and a clipboard will sort out the checking requirements.

I didn't want this Brexit. But it is better than no Brexit and things can, based on economic reality, only move back to a position of mutual equilibrium.

I'm also glad the nutter at No 11 was sacked and the other nutter is now fully sedated and in a straightjacket (politically wise).

Anecdotes like this tend to be reflective of real life effects instead of meaningless rhetoric. As to you dealing in facts.. Lol and then some!

[pjw1961]

Oct 15, 2022 22:37:18 GMT mercian said:

Oct 15, 2022 21:44:19 GMT pjw1961 said:

No that isn't how FPTP works. FPTP is all about representing geography not people. If the SDP/Liberal Alliance had got the 27.6% in 1983 and Labour the 25.4%, Labour would have still got more seats than the Alliance because it's vote was better concentrated in certain areas whereas the Alliance vote was very evenly spread. 25% is no tipping point, it all depends where your support is.    

I agree up to a point, but if as you say the proportions were reversed I would expect to see that the Alliance would at least have doubled their seats. I don't have access to the detailed results to see how many seats they were close in, so we'll probably have to leave it there.  
However I expect you'll agree that pretty well any form of PR would make such disparities impossible.

Partly because I am a sad geek but mostly because it is always good to point out the absurdity of the first past the post system I ran the scenario of the SDP/Liberal Alliance being on 27.6% and Labour on 25.4% in 1983 (all other parties unchanged). This was the result: 

Con               42.4% - 409 MPs
Lib/SDP         27.6% -   30 MPs
Lab               25.4% - 190 MPs
SNP 2, Plaid Cyrmu 2, Northern Ireland parties 17

The Alliance obviously keeps the 23 seats they actually won and gains Chelmsford, Erith & Crayford, Richmond & Barnes and Edinburgh West from the Tories and Islington South & Finsbury, Sheffield Hillsborough and City of Durham from Labour. Labour loses 16 seats to the Tories. Lots of near misses - Shirley Williams loses by 1,045 in Crosby for example - but the great strength of the Conservatives in that election is the main reason for the lack of more SDP/Lib gains.  

[laszlo4new]

GDP is quite useless for many things without the several hundred pages of methodology (e.g. on World Bank).

But on the debated thing:if you look at the GDP figures 2015-16, you will see that the German economy grew somewhere between 1-2% in GDP measures. However, the figure is lower than in 2014. It is very simple: in 2014 the USD/Euro was roughly 0.7, in 2015-16 at almost parity.

But just carry on...

Added: Between 2016-2021 the German economy grew by 5.3%, the UK by 5.2% (obviously the Covid created some fluctuations that affect the figures.

[alec]

jib - "I trade in facts, not anecdotes."

And then when someone way more knowledgeable than yourself comes out with some facts, you dismiss them as a "bitter Remoaner"?

I think you need a reset, tbh.

[jib]

Oct 16, 2022 8:36:29 GMT alec said:

jib - "I trade in facts, not anecdotes."

And then when someone way more knowledgeable than yourself comes out with some facts, you dismiss them as a "bitter Remoaner"?

I think you need a reset, tbh.

I only presented the facts. It seems they were misrepresented, which then became welcome fodder for some.

[Danny]

Oct 16, 2022 7:55:51 GMT jib said:

Following my fact check, I disagree,
Just another bitter Remoaner trying to put the boot in. 

Ah but by now there are quite a lot of bitter leave voters also putting the boot in against the leave campaign.

[jib]

domjg

"Anecdotes like this tend to be reflective of real life effects instead of meaningless rhetoric. As to you dealing in facts.. Lol and then some"

You won't change my mind, and you won't change mine.

That's life.

[steve]

"I trade in facts, not anecdotes."

Comedy gold from the same person who said that the eu was a " European super state "

That despite the fact that there's already a majority for Rejoining and old people who constituted the majority of leave voters die that" there will be no change for 25 years. "
That free movement that his choice stole for UK citizens is actually " unlimited immigration to the United kingdom "
And that the liberal democrats whose policy is rejoining the European union actually "don't want to rejoin."

But if you do get your facts from the brexitanian bumper book of total bollocks then hardly surprising.

Thoughts and prayers though that your favoured nationalist ,exceptionally, xenophobic plan has proven the catastrophic mistake that those not suffering from cognitive dissonance explained before the event.

It must be depressing to be on the wrong side of history.

[crossbat11]

jib

Surely those GDP comparisons with Germany are demonstrating that you can't draw conclusions yet on the long term impact of Brexit on the UK's economy.

The German economy has performed better than ours for a very long time and continues to do so. They have generated far more wealth than we have over decades. In terms of GDP per head of population, they are ahead. Ireland is too now, apparently. The pandemic aftershocks are still in play and we now have an energy price shock to contend with. We are not in normal times and haven't been since 2020, the year we realistically exited the EU. We were still enjoying its benefits until then. It may be some years yet before the effects of Brexit can be examined without convenient camouflage.

However, there are financial numbers suggesting that of all the G8 economies we've recovered the most anaemically post pandemic. Brexit behind that or just poor domestic economic management? Sunak or Brexit? Too early to tell.

A binary comparison between two economies is not a very good way of determining whether we're benefitting from exiting the EU.

[jib]

Oct 16, 2022 8:40:52 GMT Danny said:

Oct 16, 2022 7:55:51 GMT jib said:

Following my fact check, I disagree,
Just another bitter Remoaner trying to put the boot in. 

Ah but by now there are quite a lot of bitter leave voters also putting the boot in against the leave campaign.

Yes, the fabled uplands. Milk and honey all round, particularly in the red wall. No more Eastern European competition for that minimum wage job.

That's not why I voted for Brexit, it was a wide coalition.

As my neighbour said on that fateful June day "this is the only chance we'll get to escape".

Thank heavens we did.

[Deleted]

Re Germany vs UK economic performance.

ppp per capita points to 2007/2008 as the time of recent divergence:-

data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=DE-GB

[jib]

Oct 16, 2022 8:45:56 GMT crossbat11 said:

jib

Surely those GDP comparisons with Germany are demonstrating that you can't draw conclusions yet on the long term impact of Brexit on the UK's economy in the long term.

The German economy has performed better than ours for a very long time and continues to do so. They have generated far more wealth than we have over decades. In terms of GDP per head of population, they are ahead. Ireland is too now, apparently. The pandemic aftershocks are still in play and we now have an energy price shock to contend with. We are not in normal times and haven't been since 2020, the year we realistically exited the EU. We were still enjoying its benefits until then. It may be some years yet before the effects of Brexit can be examined without convenient camouflage.

However, there are financial numbers suggesting that of all the G8 economies we've recovered the most anaemically post pandemic. Brexit behind that or just poor domestic economic management? Sunak or Brexit? Too early to tell.

A binary comparison between two economies is not a very good way of determining whether we're benefitting from exiting the EU.

Agree. Brexit can only be measured as a success or failure over the longer term, and it undoubtedly very disruptive at the moment, and will remain so as long as rhetoric rules over reality.

[Danny]

Oct 16, 2022 8:16:35 GMT jib said:

I didn't want this Brexit. But it is better than no Brexit....

So there we have it, you admit to being pro brxit and unrepentant. Dont blame remainers for something you still want and support.

... and things can, based on economic reality, only move back to a position of mutual equilibrium.

You mean, where we simply become a vassal state of the EU, because their economic weight massively outweighs ours?

I'm also glad the nutter at No 11 was sacked and the other nutter is now fully sedated and in a straightjacket (politically wise).

Thats puzzling, because franky what Truss and kwarteng just did was intended to make Brexit work. Its what they said they'd do. They also seem unrepentant and would do it again if only the markets would let them.I suspect they believe its the only to make brexit work at all, and thats why they tried to do it.

Brexit can only work if we all accept being poorer. Not least that means cutting government expenditure or sharply raising taxes. Yet brexit was sold on the idea government would have more money to spend, not less. The whole point of the red bus was to make voters believe they would be better off after Brexit, when the truth was the exact opposite. Whatever benefits you think come from brexit -and I see none- are purchased at the cost of being fundamentally poorer financially. If leave had said that, there would have been a massive vote to remain.

Truss and Kwarteng believe the only way out is either to rejoin, which they cannot do, or make the Uk taxed so cheaply industry will flock here. Only that just isnt going to work in an increasingly proetectionist world where we have just placed ourselves outside all the major trading blocks. Markets know it isnt going to work, they arent idiots even if leave voters were. Face it, that means you. Time to accept it and rejoin.

[jib]

Oct 16, 2022 8:45:07 GMT steve said:

"I trade in facts, not anecdotes."

Comedy gold from the same person who said that the eu was a " European super state "

That despite the fact that there's already a majority for Rejoining and old people who constituted the majority of leave voters die that" there will be no change for 25 years. "
That free movement that his choice stole for UK citizens is actually " unlimited immigration to the United kingdom "
And that the liberal democrats whose policy is rejoining the European union actually "don't want to rejoin."

But if you do get your facts from the brexitanian bumper book of total bollocks then hardly surprising.

Thoughts and prayers though that your favoured nationalist ,exceptionally, xenophobic plan has proven the catastrophic mistake that those not suffering from cognitive dissonance explained before the event.

It must be depressing to be on the wrong side of history.

Oh please.

My vote, my choice.Grow up and get over it.

Keep talking to those other Lib Dems delusionalists!

[alec]

jib - "I only presented the facts. It seems they were misrepresented, which then became welcome fodder for some."

They weren't. Carney presented the more rounded view of the facts, which I explained. Pre 2008 crash, we were 90% of Germany, lost ground, recovered by 2015, then lost ground because of Brexit.

It's you that is cherry picking and distorting, and then abusing those who state the facts.

[Danny]

Oct 16, 2022 8:46:18 GMT jib said:

Yes, the fabled uplands. Milk and honey all round, particularly in the red wall. No more Eastern European competition for that minimum wage job.

That's not why I voted for Brexit, it was a wide coalition.

As my neighbour said on that fateful June day "this is the only chance we'll get to escape".

Thank heavens we did.

So why did you vote for Brexit, because I have no idea why you did?

You wanted to escape from your EU induced wealthy lifestyle?

[shevii]

A bit of 1970's nostalgia from the Moss side by election:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/nostalgia/gallery/life-chorlton-precinct-hulme-crescents-25183013

Should warn everyone that I find the MEN website laggy at best of times and especially so on photo sets.

Also the by election pictures don't start until photo 8 with a bearded Liberal and then moves onto Labour's open top bus, Tories caravan and NF van no doubt packed with boot boys ready to pile out at the first sign of trouble. Vanessa Redgrave for the Workers revolutionary party makes an appearance too. I'm hoping the Labour candidate has NHS specs. The Tory candidate surprisingly actually does something worthwhile for a living (Engineer) and looks much more Joy Division than you'd expect from a Tory.

As a boy I do remember a Tory car driving round the streets on the day of an election with a megaphone and "today is election day- vote Conservative" message- I assume the cancel culture merchants decided it wasn't a good tactic, either annoying residents or reminding the opposition to vote as well?

[hireton]

Oct 16, 2022 7:48:54 GMT jib said:

Thanks to domjg for his usual unbiased response. Fine and dandy indeed. Undoubtedly my Lib Dem friend will be along soon.

Looking at the figures which were attributed to a well known Davos Globalist Remoaner, I can conclude that there's little worthwhile trend. Only if you use dodgy stats and base your assumption on the exceptional 2015 that the Remoaner "facts" add up.

GDP figures - $ trillions 

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Germany 3.4 3.75 3.53 3.73 3.89 3.36 3.47 3.69 3.98 3.89 3.85 4.22
UK 2.49 2.67 2.72 2.8 3.09 2.96 2.72 2.7 2.9 2.88 2.76 3.19
% 73.2 71.2 77.1 75.1 79.4 88.1 78.4 73.2 72.9 74.0 71.7 75.6


Source: World Bank

"Globalist" has particular connotations as a smeer. Sad to see it used on here.