pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 13:53:31 GMT
Another reason why a lot of VI polling sub-question data is often next to worthless. You really need in depth dedicated polling on tax policy to get something remotely useful. As you say, people don't like paying tax. Well, knock me down with a feather! I'm reminded of the mess California got itself into when in an excess of democratic zeal they effectively outsourced budget setting to the public via referendum. The public quite happily voted for high levels of public services and low levels of tax, with the result the state had a persistent budget crisis. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 3, 2022 14:06:19 GMT
jayblanc
You talk as if revising historical perspective, on the basis of research, is a bad thing!
What you are describing in your comment is the English Poor Law which had been in place since Tudor times, and which the 1834 Act changed to create "Poor Law Unions" in England/Wales. The concept of providing national [1] supervision of local functions was a radical one and it was the weakness of that central control to prevent abuse which was identified in the Andover case (as well as the clerk of the Andover Union having embezzled much of the funds!). Greater powers were given to the E&W central body in 1847.
Workhouses continued until the 1940s (not 1905), though the Poor Law Unions were abolished in 1929, with their existing powers transferred to county and borough councils.
[1] Ireland and Scotland each had their own national supervisory boards, when their Poor Laws were amended in 1838 and 1845 respectively. there were some differences from the English model. For example, in Scotland outdoor relief continued as an option for parochial boards (combining parishes to form larger units was not mandatory).
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pjw1961
I don't underestimate the fear of having to enter a workhouse. In Scotland, a right of appeal against a parochial board decision was permitted, and around 20,000 such appeals were made in the period 1845-95. Unfortunately, many records have been lost over the years but among surviving ones the appeal is made against being refused outdoor relief, although the pauper met the conditions for entering a poorhouse [2].
[2] Like "jag" and "jab" there is no significance in the different terminologies of "workhouse" and "poorhouse".
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My original comment was simply designed to point out that the workhouse system went through many changes over the 100 years or so that it was in existence. In the later 19th and early 20th centuries they were less horrific than they were pre 1834 in E&W, or in the first period of the New English Poor Law. Hence my remark that "School history may not be the best basis for making judgments!"
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 14:32:03 GMT
Another reason why a lot of VI polling sub-question data is often next to worthless. You really need in depth dedicated polling on tax policy to get something remotely useful. As you say, people don't like paying tax. Well, knock me down with a feather! I'm reminded of the mess California got itself into when in an excess of democratic zeal they effectively outsourced budget setting to the public via referendum. The public quite happily voted to high levels of public services and low levels of tax, with the result the state had a persistent budget crisis. Ha ha. Dare I say, the Janus faced nature of electorates. Cake and eat it. It always amuses me how often Question Time audiences appear to applaud seemingly totally contradictory notions. A panellist bemoans the lack of nurses, doctors and investment in the NHS. Unanimous applause. Another panellist lays into tax and spend policies, waste and high taxation. The audience applauds again. Not different factions either, the same bloody people!! Joining up the dots seems beyond a lot of people. I want a better NHS but vote for a party who wants to shrink the state. On we go. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 14:38:25 GMT
Even Domino's Pizza taking the p... now:
"Advising our drivers to avoid traffic in the Westminster area due to a monumental u-turn" — Domino's Pizza UK (@dominos_UK) October 3, 2022
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Post by hireton on Oct 3, 2022 14:51:35 GMT
Interesting that of all the ills of workhouse practices you identify the affront to the marriage vow as of premier importance. I'm sure that there were many women who weren't so averse to that aspect. Not having to accept daily violent assault, rape and death in childbirth which were present in all levels of society may have been one of the upsides. As a modern society are we so much better where our addicts, abuse victims , mental health sufferers and homeless are allowed to die on the streets ? Care in the community is great if we actually care. I was not saying that care is great now, just that oldnat 's advocacy for workhouses as a solution was disgraceful. He is always ready to complain about England, but in this case he has shown himself to be a "Tartan Tory"; the very people who brought in the workhouses in the first place. The Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834 was passed by Earl Grey's Whig government. I don't think oldnat was advocating for workhouses as a solution but pointing out that their history is more complex than the popular view often derived from literature. And it would be anachronistic to think that modern welfare state solutions were an alternative, the only valid comparison would be either the old poor law or any other system which was proposed at the time. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 14:53:44 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 3, 2022 14:58:27 GMT
Unusual to have a flurry of simultaneous polls that allow an average Scots crossbreak VI to be calculated for a large sample (N=956). The weighted average for the 7 polls is -
SNP 45% : SLab 31% : SCon 12% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 1%
That might/maybe/possibly/perhaps be of some interest, in that it confirms what was fairly obvious. Many UK Unionist voters have consolidated behind SLab instead of SCon. Hence (according to EC) those changes in VI would result in -
6 seats going SCon to SNP
2 seats going SLD to SNP
2 seats going Alba to SLab
2 seats going SNP to SLab
1 seat going Ind (Ferrier) to SLab
Net : Indy supporting MPs 51 (+3):Union supporting MPs 8 (-3)
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Post by alec on Oct 3, 2022 14:59:43 GMT
Have just posted a fascinating paper on the covid thread about the use of HEPA filters to monitor covid, if anyone is interested.
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Post by mercian on Oct 3, 2022 15:00:48 GMT
caroline What a shame the workhouses closed down.😁 [banter] While I'm all in favour of encouraging people to use libraries, I'm uncomfortable with the idea of them effectively being turned into refugee camps for people who can't afford heating in the winter. This was being widely floated a few weeks ago. Turning libraries into workhouses. And when funding runs out for libraries to keep the lights and heating on, I hope you'll entertain us with another joke about burning books for warmth, just like the good old days. [banter] Just to try to clear this up once and for all for you humourless lot, it was a joke and the target was the Tories. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 3, 2022 15:05:01 GMT
While I'm all in favour of encouraging people to use libraries, I'm uncomfortable with the idea of them effectively being turned into refugee camps for people who can't afford heating in the winter. This was being widely floated a few weeks ago. Turning libraries into workhouses. And when funding runs out for libraries to keep the lights and heating on, I hope you'll entertain us with another joke about burning books for warmth, just like the good old days. [banter] Just to try to clear this up once and for all for you humourless lot, it was a joke and the target was the Tories. Lost your dummy again |
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Post by alec on Oct 3, 2022 15:05:07 GMT
The end point -
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 15:10:44 GMT
While I'm all in favour of encouraging people to use libraries, I'm uncomfortable with the idea of them effectively being turned into refugee camps for people who can't afford heating in the winter. This was being widely floated a few weeks ago. Turning libraries into workhouses. And when funding runs out for libraries to keep the lights and heating on, I hope you'll entertain us with another joke about burning books for warmth, just like the good old days. [banter] Just to try to clear this up once and for all for you humourless lot, it was a joke and the target was the Tories. I volunteer for the role of UKPR's Mercian Sense of Humour Czar. This would entail adjudicating on when Mercian is exhibiting a genuine sense of humour and when he is instead being disingenuous and masking genuine prejudice with fake humour. In other words the motive is to offend and not amuse. The role entails real skill because Mercian is a master of disguise in these matters. I won't overplay the importance of the role, or offer it for prolonged debate, but when I think Mercian is being funny, I will like the post. When I think he isn't, the crossbat11 "like" will be noticeably absent. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 15:13:55 GMT
This will delight the dwindling faithful but is, in my view, electoral death for the Conservative Party. Talk about pulling the ladders up. |
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Post by graham on Oct 3, 2022 15:18:28 GMT
Unusual to have a flurry of simultaneous polls that allow an average Scots crossbreak VI to be calculated for a large sample (N=956). The weighted average for the 7 polls is - SNP 45% : SLab 31% : SCon 12% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 1% That might/maybe/possibly/perhaps be of some interest, in that it confirms what was fairly obvious. Many UK Unionist voters have consolidated behind SLab instead of SCon. Hence (according to EC) those changes in VI would result in - 6 seats going SCon to SNP 2 seats going SLD to SNP 2 seats going Alba to SLab 2 seats going SNP to SLab 1 seat going Ind (Ferrier) to SLab Net : Indy supporting MPs 51 (+3):Union supporting MPs 8 (-3) That weighted average implies a swing to Labour from SNP of 6.7% which on a UNS basis would result in 8 Labour gains there. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 3, 2022 15:18:46 GMT
crossbat11
If the ladders are all pulled up, there will be fewer attendees at A&E due to falling off them, or walking under them.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 15:32:12 GMT
Clarke is arguing that Labour cannot be trusted on levelling up because it opposed Brexit.
The conference proceedings have now started, with a video address from Simon Clarke, the levelling up secretary. He is not in the hall in person.
He says levelling up is about transforming life chances.
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Clarke and the rest of the brexitanian luddites transformed people's life chances by stealing their rights to live, study, work and explore in the European union.
Next up transforming people's education chances by blowing up schools!
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 15:33:49 GMT
crossbat11
If the ladders are all pulled up, there will be fewer attendees at A&E due to falling off them, or walking under them. True, but if they're pulled up while people are ascending them then that could be dangerous? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 15:41:18 GMT
@crofty
It reminds me of the man in the street interviews conducted by the BBC in Bristol the week before the referendum.
The interviews took place outside Bristol university Wills memorial building in Clifton , Clifton voters incidentally voted 85%+ remain .
The first interview with the " typical" passer by " Hi Fred you said you voted UKIP and are going to vote leave".
Oddly enough despite the thousands of university students and staff and the overwhelmingly remain population of Bristol the BBC was unable to find a single remain supporter. Much like not being able to find any British mep who wasn't Nigel Farage
Just luck I suppose!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 15:43:13 GMT
Unusual to have a flurry of simultaneous polls that allow an average Scots crossbreak VI to be calculated for a large sample (N=956). The weighted average for the 7 polls is - SNP 45% : SLab 31% : SCon 12% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 1% Net : Indy supporting MPs 51 (+3):Union supporting MPs 8 (-3) Based on: Indy supporting parties 48%, union supporting parties 50%. Good old FPTP. |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 3, 2022 15:43:39 GMT
1. It's worth contextualising his leadership win I think. We'd been through five years of austerity with a Tory/Lib Dem coalition government and ever since the financial crash Labour had failed to offer a compelling alternative vision for the country. What's worse is that they meekly let the Tories set the political agenda and failed to properly challenge the hugely damaging narrative that Labour were reckless with the economy when in power. Cooper and Burham are very capable politicians but their pitches in 2015 were very uninspiring. Labour looked directionless and like a party in search of an identity and Corbyn provided that. Yes, it didn't work out and yes, electability should obviously be an important consideration when selecting a leader, but if no one looks a surefire winner, it doesn't seem unreasonable to me to pick the candidate whose vision for the party and country is at least somewhat attractive and aligns with your own. 2. Fair enough - happy to concede it's a debatable point. That said, whilst I'm not necessarily wedded to the particular systems that the main political parties use to select their leaders, I still tend towards the opinion that, for the reasons I outlined on the other thread yesterday, I'd be a little wary of diluting the existing power members have to choose a leader. I did read the article Moby linked to and, whilst Kinnock makes some reasonable observations, I note that this was prior to Corbyn being tested in a General Election. In 2017 he greatly increased Labour's share of the vote despite Kinnock's characterisation of him as an no hoper who enjoyed little support within the PLP. 3. I obviously share your view on the folly of Brexit but I think we diverge a bit in terms of culpability. The Remain campaign was crap and obviously Corbyn, as Labour Party leader, shares responsibility for that. However, you say that Corbyn understood the Red Wall Labour Leavers more than most - given this, was his 7/10 verdict really so terrible? Was he not merely reflecting what a lot of people felt about the EU? Most of the political establishment was advocating Remain and yet the referendum result revealed that there were a lot of voters in "left behind" communities that felt neglected and opted for Brexit - a lot of these places were traditional Labour heartlands but had been drifting away from the party some time before the referendum. I'm not sure I'm convinced that Corbyn being a more enthusiastic proponent of Remain would have swayed these voters and made any significant difference. Fair comment on that italicised quote of mine - it eludes me too really! I was quite weary myself at that hour... 4. What I will say about Starmer is that, despite my criticisms, he did a pretty reasonable job at Conference last week and there was actually some decent policy. He could yet end up surprising me. I wonder whether we'd have got some of this policy (eg publicly owned energy company, rail renationalisation) if it hadn't been for the Corbyn era. Perhaps, perhaps not. Even though it ended in failure, a lot of individual policies were popular with voters and I tend to think the fact they got a proper airing could lay the groundwork for the party to pursue more progressive policies should it wish to. I hope they do, and if such policies make it into a manifesto and they're elected on such a platform that will ultimately be to everyone's benefit. Thanks. Always a pleasure to read a post that conforms to the Rule of the 4 Cs- Concision, Clarity, Cohesion, Congenial. 1. Agree that in 2015 the Labour Old Guard had failed & members looked for a change of direction. I was happy to give Corbyn benefit of the D, but was alienated by his EU Ref campaign. Labour was crippled by the tension between Labour Remainers & Red Wallers BUT! (a) 7/10 verdict in a Binary, Yes/No campaign was bad politics. Give me the name sport of a Leave leader who preached a 7/10 Brexit! (b) Corbyn was fabled to have a reach to the young: but he didn't mobilise their vote. 2/3. Repeat: it's tough having a Labour leader not supported by his or her MPs. The EU Ref campaign spolied the chances that his MPs would remain loyal: and as Lady Valerie often pointed out, as a backbencher Corbyn was supremely disloyal to every Labour leader, including those democratically elected. You can't have it both ways. Accept that in 2017 Corbyn did well, and if Lab had won a few more seats the Brtitish political landscape might look rather differemt. After 2017 C became a liability. Mind you, Labour were doomed in 2019 & his main virtue was to carry the blame for the defeat and allow a fresh start. 4. Starmer has a good team with lots of excellent women who give the impression, unlike Truss's banditti, that they have some connection with life as most people experience it. Labour have a lead amongst women voters and they need to appeal to their concern with welfare, education, health & social care: a dynamic that worked well in 2017. |
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Post by kay9 on Oct 3, 2022 15:48:42 GMT
… SNP 45% : SLab 31% : SCon 12% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 1% 6 seats going SCon to SNP 2 seats going SLD to SNP 2 seats going Alba to SLab 2 seats going SNP to SLab 1 seat going Ind (Ferrier) to SLab Net : Indy supporting MPs 51 (+3):Union supporting MPs 8 (-3) That weighted average implies a swing to Labour from SNP of 6.7% which on a UNS basis would result in 8 Labour gains there. In 2010 the SNP polled 1.66% and in 2015,= 4.7% Also in 2010, Lab polled 29.00%, in 2015, 30.4% This, I think, points to a UNS of Lab —> SNP of 1.32% On a UK basis, this would not have been a reliable predictor of the actual results in Scotland. I suggest that UNS is equally unwise to predict the next GE result in Scotland. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 15:51:37 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 3, 2022 15:55:04 GMT
That weighted average implies a swing to Labour from SNP of 6.7% which on a UNS basis would result in 8 Labour gains there.
"Swing" is a useful concept in races that are primarily 2-horse ones. In an individual constituency or in a whole polity, where there are 2 parties competing for victory, it's a useful shorthand for shifts of support between them. It becomes of limited value in a multi-party system in constituencies where the 2 parties in competition are not the same as in others, and where changes in VI can have totally opposite effects under FPTP.
There has definitely been a swing in Scotland, but it has been within the Unionist "tribe" 12.5% from SCon to SLab. The SNP VI is unchanged and (other than in the 2 Alba seats) the indy vote solidly backs them. Under FPTP, Unionists lose out, as they are divided into several camps. Where UK Unionists change voting allegiance, the party that can secure most of their vote gains seats from SNP, while the party that lost their votes loses seats to the SNP. |
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Post by hireton on Oct 3, 2022 15:56:34 GMT
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 3, 2022 15:57:27 GMT
This site enjoys making heavy weather of straightforward issues. The reaction to the Mini-Budget.
1. Tax cuts or remissions & energy subsidies are popular in a period of economic crisis. 2. People want to have their cake & eat it. 3. People will ask sooner or later - how are these things going to be paid for. Labour promoting windfall taxes = partial solution. 4. If people with little interest in everyday politics sense gross injustice, then, as PJW61 said yesterday, they can get v angry across the parties: Poll Tax, Cummings's Road Trip, now Abolition of 45% rate.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Oct 3, 2022 16:00:03 GMT
Unusual to have a flurry of simultaneous polls that allow an average Scots crossbreak VI to be calculated for a large sample (N=956). The weighted average for the 7 polls is - SNP 45% : SLab 31% : SCon 12% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 1% Net : Indy supporting MPs 51 (+3):Union supporting MPs 8 (-3) Based on: Indy supporting parties 48%, union supporting parties 50%. Good old FPTP. |
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Post by graham on Oct 3, 2022 16:00:15 GMT
That weighted average implies a swing to Labour from SNP of 6.7% which on a UNS basis would result in 8 Labour gains there. In 2010 the SNP polled 1.66% and in 2015,= 4.7% Also in 2010, Lab polled 29.00%, in 2015, 30.4% This, I think, points to a UNS of Lab —> SNP of 1.32% On a UK basis, this would not have been a reliable predictor of the actual results in Scotland. I suggest that UNS is equally unwise to predict the next GE result in Scotland. I am referring to UNS based on changes in the Vote Shares in Scotland compared with 2019 when the SNP polled 45% and Labour 18.6%. The SNP vote is ,therefore, unchanged with Labour up 12.4%. That represent a swing of 6.2% to Labour - correcting my original figure! That would imply 6 Labour gains - with 4 further seats neck and neck. In reality, I doubt that the SNP vote share will much exceed 40% at the next Westminster election. If so, that will bring several other SNP seats into play.
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Post by jimjam on Oct 3, 2022 16:01:58 GMT
Just Out
''@redfieldwilton
Labour leads by 28%, largest lead for ANY party that we've recorded.
Westminster Voting Intention (2 Oct):
Labour 52% (+6)
Conservative 24% (-5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
Green 5% (+1)
SNP 5% (+2)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 28-29 Sept
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/9bPMetX4fm
03/10/2022, 17:00''
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Post by shevii on Oct 3, 2022 16:07:45 GMT
Just Out ''@redfieldwilton Labour leads by 28%, largest lead for ANY party that we've recorded. Westminster Voting Intention (2 Oct): Labour 52% (+6) Conservative 24% (-5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-3) Green 5% (+1) SNP 5% (+2) Reform UK 3% (-1) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 28-29 Sept redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/9bPMetX4fm 03/10/2022, 17:00'' Yougov looking less like an outlier and more of a faster reaction speed (we have noticed them quite sensitive to events and quicker even if a lot of these "events" have been forgotten about a couple of days later ) |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 3, 2022 16:11:05 GMT
mercian wrote "Just to try to clear this up once and for all for you humourless lot, it was a joke and the target was the Tories." mercian, As I told you last night, you need to learn the difference between humour and disgusting comment. From the comments from other posters, it seems most if not all agree with me.
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