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Post by RAF on Oct 15, 2022 14:38:22 GMT
Andrew Bailey speaking today and blaming everything but Brexit for the current economic malaise. He cites Covid, the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and a labour supply shortage but can't bring himself to even suggest the latter two are down to Brexit.
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 14:51:15 GMT
While I agree with RAF that Bailey should also have mentioned Brexit, what he said about covid and the workforce is - "Long covid could be contributing to labour shortages in the UK, the governor of the Bank of England has said. Andrew Bailey told a G30 seminar that labour shortages are largely being driven by an increase in older people choosing not to work, with possible reasons including long covid, people with long-term health conditions reluctant to work during pandemic and public health systems not treating people as promptly in a covid world." [From the G]. It isn't just symptomatic long covid. What many people appear to miss is that there are a lot of people with other health conditions who are frightened of repeat covid infections, lots of officially CEV workers who really must avoid infection if at all possible. |
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Post by hireton on Oct 15, 2022 14:57:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2022 14:58:46 GMT
But I was commenting on the characterisation- "legend". Labour Corbynite expresses wish to swear at Tory Minister- its pretty low bar. But we live in a time of scarcity.
As far as Hunt is concerned, I see him as someone in hock to Murdock, who is detached socially and economically from the experience of normal people and messed up the NHS. Definitely not a legend in my book. You miss my point. The post I responded to implied that "legend" status was being attributed because of the comments made in the Twitter link provided-ie an expressed wish to swear at Hunt.* My response was to indicate that she is a LP member-and so the attribution was perhaps a little OTT-Do bears defecate in the woods ? / Is the Pope a Catholic ? etc. I was not and am not seeking to engage with personal opinions about Jeremy Hunt. * neilj has subsequently explained that his attribution was based on other factors as well. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2022 15:16:01 GMT
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 15:36:21 GMT
While the source for this story (the TUC) are clearly biased, the facts as reported do look pretty damming - www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/15/shareholder-payouts-rose-three-times-faster-than-uk-wages-says-tucThere will be complexities here that might mean a direct comparison between wages and dividends over time isn't completely valid, but it remains a fact that owners of capital have been doing very well over a long time period, whereas workers always seem to bear the brunt, whatever the economic reasons. If levelling up has any meaning, it should mean rebalancing the share of GDP growth captured by labour compared to that taken by shareholders. Indeed, that single metric probably explains 95% of the discontent and disengagement seen in western democracies, yet is something that both major parties and the media at large remain largely silent on. Cuts to corporation tax feed this inequity, unless accompanied by incentives to invest/disincentives to distribute profits, and it's also hard to see how the defenestration of unions has helped here. This problem dates back to the days when union powers were attacked, and this was done without any attempts to initiate alternative mechanisms to avoid excess profit taking by shareholders at the expense of workers. It's a fundamental problem at the root of many of the social and political issues we currently face. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 15:41:52 GMT
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 15:52:12 GMT
Interesting how the wests 'living with covid' (aka 'giving up') strategy is gifting China and India a leg up in the global pharmaceuticals industry -
There is an astonishing opportunity here for someone to develop a vaccine that nails transmission of covid, and while this wouldn't end the pandemic on it's own (immunity still likely to wane rapidly, for example) it would go an awful long way to drive down the number of infections. Because of the ease of delivery, a successful nasal spray vaccine also opens a genuine possibility for targeting the elimination* of covid.
The countries that grasp this will find themselves in a significant competitive advantage, but western governments have largely vacated the field on second generation vaccines, pushed by the pharma companies into using repeat boosters with conventional jabs as they chase variants. Good business for the vaccine producers.
I genuinely think we will get to a sensible point on covid, but I think it's only going to come in many western countries after we see 'poorer' countries well ahead of us on the exit ramp and western voters start asking their governments why we have to get sick several times a year, when other countries have left covid largely behind.
*Elimination - used here in the correct epidemiological sense of the term.
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Post by johntel on Oct 15, 2022 15:57:23 GMT
It's a bit windy in the Black Sea today so the ferries taking supplies through Crimea to Kherson have stopped running :-).
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Oct 15, 2022 16:03:44 GMT
There may be an appetite for better deals, trade deals ... I don't think there's any 'may' about it Jib - clearly there is an appetite for better deals and trade deals. I think that appetite will grow, and of course that wouldn't be the case if what we had now was great. As for "no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale" - I would have made you right previously. Now? No way is there "no chance" at all. There is every chance it happens sooner than that. I think the time frame has been bought forward by a good ten to fifteen years on that 25 years. I say that as someone who didn't vote in the referendum as both Tory visions were not for me. Of course that won't need to happen if Brexit turns out to be a roaring success but do you see it as being on course to be that? |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 15, 2022 16:05:33 GMT
Oh Colin you are naughty - if that had been the case you would have just written 'I don't think she warrants legend status'. Your selection of that part of Wikipedia was to paint her in a political light in which you think diminishes her. Personally I think her stance, as a Jewish woman, on Israeli govt policy and treatment of the Palestinians is perfectly legitimate as was her support for Corbyn - she also has a long and distinguished career as an actor, some may say legendary one.
As far as Hunt is concerned, I see him as someone in hock to Murdock, who is detached socially and economically from the experience of normal people and messed up the NHS. Definitely not a legend in my book. Lulu what you say is spot on. But why allow yourself to be drawn into one of Colin's sneaky but oh-so-transparent little games. Oh says our Big Brave Brexiteer, I'm not here to talk about Hunt, (who of course should have been sacked when revealed as the Murdochs' estwhile errand boy, as NickP reminded us some time ago), esp not the fact that Hunt has just announced Austerity2 & tax increases. No, let's waffle on Margoyles, thus diverting attention to Corbyn, who politically is as dead as Oliver Cromwell, and hope no one notices that it's the shattering chaos caused by the ROCs' ideologically-rooted Brexit government that has led to Hunt's elevation and the massively costly current uncertainty. I suppose Colin has stayed to fight his corner: nearly all the other ROCs have fled, esp tw, Banquo's ghost, once the arch-exponent of what appears to be a bankrupt poltico-economic idea: a poster claiming he was cancelled. It's the experiment that should be cancelled. |
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Post by James E on Oct 15, 2022 16:06:14 GMT
Those figures are very close to the long-standing YouGov tracker - "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?" They have asked this three times in Sept and Oct, with results of 34/53, 35/52 and 34/52 for 'Wrong'. This question has consistently seen much less movement than Voting Intention polls, but has overall been slowly drifting towards 'wrong'. This is despite around 75% of those who voted Leave still thinking it was the right decision. But as I've noted before, the movement is there. And views on the issue have become ever more age-divided. Over 65s still think the decision was 'Right' by a 64/36 margin which matches exactly the way the same age cohort voted in 2016 (excl DKs). Those aged 18-64 now divide 70/30 for 'Wrong' , so an 18-point swing compared to the referendum itself where those aged under 65 voted narrowly to Remain by 52/48. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 16:18:40 GMT
@james E
Despite one contributor who appears to think all those over 65 are going to be around for another 25 years it's blindingly obvious except to the intentionally obtuse that those figures are going in one direction only.
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Post by lens on Oct 15, 2022 16:31:46 GMT
@james E Despite one contributor who appears to think all those over 65 are going to be around for another 25 years it's blindingly obvious except to the intentionally obtuse that those figures are going in one direction only. I suppose the statistical question to be asked is whether there's a bias amongst over 65's which will die off as they age, or whether the percentages are dynamic - people are less likely to be pro-EU as they get older? So it follows whether the polls increasingly in favour of the EU are due to simple change of minds, or a demographic dying off? Personally, I'm more inclined towards the latter? An increasing realisation that the land of milk and honey promised with Brexit hasn't happened, and isn't likely to happen. (And for the avoidance of any doubt, I say that as one who believes leaving the EU was a mistake.) |
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Post by James E on Oct 15, 2022 16:33:16 GMT
steve At the opposite end of the age sub-groups, the 18-24's - who of course were too young to vote in 2016 - divide by 87% to 13% for 'Wrong to Leave' per the average of YouGov's recent polls. lensThe demographic forces - with 64/36 Leavers being replaced by 87/13 Remainers - will have resulted in about a 4% swing over the six-and-a-bit years since the 2016 referendum. So I'd say that this has been around a third of the overall 12% movement from Leave/Right to Remain/Wrong.
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Post by johntel on Oct 15, 2022 16:35:56 GMT
Oh Colin you are naughty - if that had been the case you would have just written 'I don't think she warrants legend status'. Your selection of that part of Wikipedia was to paint her in a political light in which you think diminishes her. Personally I think her stance, as a Jewish woman, on Israeli govt policy and treatment of the Palestinians is perfectly legitimate as was her support for Corbyn - she also has a long and distinguished career as an actor, some may say legendary one.
As far as Hunt is concerned, I see him as someone in hock to Murdock, who is detached socially and economically from the experience of normal people and messed up the NHS. Definitely not a legend in my book.  Lulu what you say is spot on. But why allow yourself to be drawn into one of Colin's sneaky but oh-so-transparent little games. Oh says our Big Brave Brexiteer, I'm not here to talk about Hunt, (who of course should have been sacked when revealed as the Murdochs' estwhile errand boy, as NickP reminded us some time ago), esp not the fact that Hunt has just announced Austerity2 & tax increases. No, let's waffle on Margoyles, thus diverting attention to Corbyn, who politically is as dead as Oliver Cromwell, and hope no one notices that it's the shattering chaos caused by the ROCs' ideologically-rooted Brexit government that has led to Hunt's elevation and the massively costly current uncertainty.  I suppose Colin has stayed to fight his corner: nearly all the other ROCs have fled, esp tw, Banquo's ghost, once the arch-exponent of what appears to be a bankrupt poltico-economic idea: a poster claiming he was cancelled. It's the experiment that should be cancelled.@mark If this isn't bullying I don't know what is. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 15, 2022 17:26:52 GMT
On the train back to Brum from Peterborough. Mick Lynch relented this weekend so I'm indulging my favourite mode of travel. Two more trains to get. Brum to Worcester then Worcester to Evesham. Then either Mrs H lift or taxi home. I suspect a taxi that involves a pick up from a town centre pub. It may have to be done.
So that's the preliminary rounds done now on my Road to Wembley. Four ties and a replay and an inordinate time spent in Peterborough! That's over now. Curzon Ashton the victors today. A hard fought and tight affair decided by a penalty. Blood and thunder thereafter, a halfway line brawl involving players and coaching staff and eight minutes injury time! Curzon just about, deservedly, hung on.
So it's the 1st Round Proper now with some of the smaller big boys involved for the first time. I'm either at Ashton under Lyne or wherever they're drawn if their ball comes out of the bag second at Monday lunchtime's draw. If it's up in the North East young Crofty has offered to host me. Ashton and the younger son will be my confrere for the day. An evening in Stockport may beckon.
England their England and the national game. Great stuff.
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 17:30:55 GMT
When this appears in the Telegraph, written by one of it's Editors, you know the Brexit dream is over.
Worth reading the article but a flavour here
'Downbeat predictions by the Treasury and others on the economic consequences of leaving the EU, contemptuously dismissed at the time by Brexit campaigners as "Project Fear", have been on a long fuse, but they have turned out to be overwhelmingly correct, and if anything have underestimated both the calamitous loss of international standing and the scale of the damage that six years of policy confusion and ineptitude has imposed on the country.'
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 15, 2022 17:33:33 GMT
David Lammy on Radio 4 this morning was a little more flexible on whether they would have a 1% cut in income tax, suggesting they would need to see the OBR forecast before they can make a decision. Not sure if this is an official change of direction or not. Personally I think as much as I would like a tax cut, the public finances can't afford it and if it is a choice between tax cuts and not cutting public services, I would go for the latter I think the cost of 1% off the basic rate is about ÂŁ6bn, so yes sticking to 20% helps but there's still a long way to go to fill the ÂŁ40 hole that still exists. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 15, 2022 17:37:41 GMT
"There is no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale." Given that polls already show a majority for rejoin and given that the majority of the daft pricks who voted for leave were over 55 that seems an interesting extension of denialism both denying current reality and denying mortality. Add in a sprinkling of faux European super state insanity and you have the perfect brexitanian. It's not so much that it will take 25 years for attitudes to change here as it will take 25 years before the EU trusts us again. Even de Gaulle held up our entry for around a decade and that was at a time when our relationship with the EEC was rather better. |
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 17:38:38 GMT
David Lammy on Radio 4 this morning was a little more flexible on whether they would have a 1% cut in income tax, suggesting they would need to see the OBR forecast before they can make a decision. Not sure if this is an official change of direction or not. Personally I think as much as I would like a tax cut, the public finances can't afford it and if it is a choice between tax cuts and not cutting public services, I would go for the latter I think the cost of 1% off the basic rate is about ÂŁ6bn, so yes sticking to 20% helps but there's still a long way to go to fill the ÂŁ40 hole that still exists. Just heard Hunt is postponing the cut in the 20% tax according to the Sunday Times If it's correct it really is a slap down for Truss |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 15, 2022 17:49:58 GMT
I am going to stick my neck out and predict that the next General Election will be in the spring of 2023. I really don’t think it is necessary for Batty to exhort the LP to keep playing the mantra “We need a General Election” the LP are already doing this and the volume is being turned up every day. Every other party is joining in and the electorate seem to have got the message. The press will eventually amplify this even further. The boundary changes which have to be reported by the four Boundary Commissions by the beginning of July 2023 are still estimated to give the Tories 15 seat gains and Labour 9 seat losses (relative to the existing boundaries) according to Electoral Calculus. I don't expect the Tories to go before the autumn of 2023, and only then if the economy is not as bad as it seems now. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2022 17:55:47 GMT
I think the cost of 1% off the basic rate is about ÂŁ6bn, so yes sticking to 20% helps but there's still a long way to go to fill the ÂŁ40 hole that still exists. Just heard Hunt is postponing the cut in the 20% tax according to the Sunday Times If it's correct it really is a slap down for Truss She has no authority over him. A prisoner of her Chancellor. Its nuts. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 17:56:01 GMT
Delay in the cut to basic rate tax I think is the right thing to do but does highlight how insignificant Truss is
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2022 17:57:14 GMT
@jontel
Thanks for the thought.
No worries though-the usual prating.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 17:57:14 GMT
Just heard Hunt is postponing the cut in the 20% tax according to the Sunday Times If it's correct it really is a slap down for Truss She has no authority over him. A prisoner of her Chancellor. Its nuts. Agree, she is PM in name only |
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Post by graham on Oct 15, 2022 17:57:35 GMT
I am going to stick my neck out and predict that the next General Election will be in the spring of 2023. I really don’t think it is necessary for Batty to exhort the LP to keep playing the mantra “We need a General Election” the LP are already doing this and the volume is being turned up every day. Every other party is joining in and the electorate seem to have got the message. The press will eventually amplify this even further. The boundary changes which have to be reported by the four Boundary Commissions by the beginning of July 2023 are still estimated to give the Tories 15 seat gains and Labour 9 seat losses (relative to the existing boundaries) according to Electoral Calculus. I don't expect the Tories to go before the autumn of 2023, and only then if the economy is not as bad as it seems now. It is not as clearcut as that though. The party gains and losses are based on a repeat of the 2019 result in terms of vote shares - ie a Tory lead of 11.6%. If the parties are neck and neck most of the Tory gain would disappear. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 15, 2022 18:01:27 GMT
The same Starlink that is destroying professional ground-based astronomy because of the satellites reflecting the sunlight in the hours after dark and before dawn. When he started putting them into orbit he did nothing to reduce the reflections until the scientists started complaining. Even now they are a serious problem. The picture on the article shows just how bad it is. Musk is plain irresponsible. spacenews.com/astronomers-renew-concerns-about-starlink-satellite-brightness/
He did listen to the astronomical community and redesigned his satellites to reflect less light. But if he wasn't the one putting lots of satellites into orbit someone else would. Every man and their dog are now fighting to get into the small satellite launch market, so there will be many more objects up there in the coming years, providing a myriad of services. Many satellites is the future.
If you read the article I referenced, you will see that his latest satellites are brighter than the earlier ones because he removed the shielding as it interfered with another facility he wanted to add. Incidentally, there is no need to go into space to provide the internet in remote regions. You can also use high-flying drones: newspunch.com/facebooks-high-flying-internet-supplying-drones/ QinetiQ, here in the UK built the demonstrator. |
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 18:02:02 GMT
The boundary changes which have to be reported by the four Boundary Commissions by the beginning of July 2023 are still estimated to give the Tories 15 seat gains and Labour 9 seat losses (relative to the existing boundaries) according to Electoral Calculus. I don't expect the Tories to go before the autumn of 2023, and only then if the economy is not as bad as it seems now. It is not as clearcut as that though. The party gains and losses are based on a repeat of the 2019 result in terms of vote shares - ie a Tory lead of 11.6%. If the parties are neck and neck most of the Tory gain would disappear. If the current polling is right most of the tories would disappear |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 15, 2022 18:06:46 GMT
I have noticed something odd about electoral calculus. If you put in the 2019 vote shares and the 2019 boundaries - i.e. replay 2019 - you would expect to get more or less the historical result (Scotland might throw it off a bit). But you don't; you get a Conservative landslide majority of 156. Which suggests a problem with their model.
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