neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 7:37:04 GMT
Miriam Margolyes is a legend
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 7:37:12 GMT
Based on what Jeremy Hunt is saying, the Singaporean ship "Britannia" has sunk along with Captain Kwarteng.
A most unfortunate loss, the ERG rats probably managed to escape.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 7:38:13 GMT
10 years ago it would have been science fiction to think that a single individual would be able to deploy a fleet of satellites to help in a war. Amazing! That chap Yevgeny Prigozhin seems to have his own private army called the Wagner group which he has deployed in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Or at least on behalf of Putin. I think there's a bit of wishful thinking there. There are a lot of voters who are mildly RoC. Where are they going to go? One possibility is that Starmer becomes Blair Mk 2 and hoovers them up. Otherwise it's the Tories or Reform UK (who I might stand for in the next GE). In 2010 it was to the libs. Also Hunt had been offered the job several hours before Well you cant not have a chancellor. Imagine market reaction if the job was unoccupied![/quote] |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 15, 2022 7:39:11 GMT
Listening to Hunt my impression was an adult was now in Government Doubt it will be enough to save the tories, but it may reduce the huge poll leads a little Then again... I'm not sure the tax rises plus £40bn of cuts in public spending he is talking about will be that popular. Cameron and Osborne were able to sell the lie that austerity was necessary to 'balance the books' in 2010-15. How do they sell the same level of cuts when they have been in power for 12 years and have caused the mess they intend the public to pay for? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 7:41:03 GMT
Listening to Hunt my impression was an adult was now in Government Doubt it will be enough to save the tories, but it may reduce the huge poll leads a little Then again... I'm not sure the tax rises plus £40bn of cuts in public spending he is talking about will be that popular. Cameron and Osborne were able to sell the lie that austerity was necessary to 'balance the books' in 2010-15. How do they sell the same level of cuts when they have been in power for 12 years and have caused the mess they intend the public to pay for? The question is, will markets consider that 40bn spending cuts is even possible? Seems very very unlikely. |
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 7:41:19 GMT
No chance of rejoin. Even the Lib Dems know that is a dead duck. In fact, if Labour wanted to see their very healthy poll lead evaporate in a flash, that would be a policy that would do it. I dont agree, and never have. labour voters have consistently always been pro remain, and now pro rejoin. Conservative support collapsed under May because she was refuing to carry out their wishes of leaving the EU. As soon as pro immediate brexit Johnson became PM, their vote solidified. Exactly the same would have happened in reverse had labour stood out as remain and campaigned for it. Johnson could have been beaten in his election had labour gone hard second referendum and campaigned for a change to remain. No one votes for something which isnt on offer.
And now we are even more rejoin than we were remain.
Truss and Kwarteng are well aware the current collapse of the Uk economy is down to brexit. Did you hear them repeatedly blaming the Ukraine war?
There is no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale. As I keep saying, we have left. There may be an appetite for better deals, trade deals and better arrangements for longer stays in the EU etc, but don't mistake that for rejoining. Sorting out the ridiculous Sausage War over NI would be a symbolic start. There is no appetite in the Red / Blue Wall for Freedom of Movement and net contributions to build infrastructure in the East. |
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 7:43:38 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 7:48:32 GMT
Listening to Hunt my impression was an adult was now in Government Doubt it will be enough to save the tories, but it may reduce the huge poll leads a little Then again... I'm not sure the tax rises plus £40bn of cuts in public spending he is talking about will be that popular. Cameron and Osborne were able to sell the lie that austerity was necessary to 'balance the books' in 2010-15. How do they sell the same level of cuts when they have been in power for 12 years and have caused the mess they intend the public to pay for? I tend to agree, but his suggestion that there may be no tax cuts and maybe tax rises is grown up politics. What he did do today is put the end to Trussonomics and left her PM in name only. I think there will be further cabinet resignations in the next week. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Oct 15, 2022 7:58:53 GMT
The lack of freedom of movement for EU citizens seems to have gone very well since the exodus started in 2016 (banter).
I was just wondering whether, if we reintroduced it, anybody would want to come to work in basket case UK, especially when there's a risk we might double back again. The UK hokey cokey.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 8:01:42 GMT
"There is no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale."
Given that polls already show a majority for rejoin and given that the majority of the daft pricks who voted for leave were over 55 that seems an interesting extension of denialism both denying current reality and denying mortality.
Add in a sprinkling of faux European super state insanity and you have the perfect brexitanian.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 15, 2022 8:03:25 GMT
There is no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale. As I keep saying, we have left. There may be an appetite for better deals, trade deals and better arrangements for longer stays in the EU etc, but don't mistake that for rejoining. Sorting out the ridiculous Sausage War over NI would be a symbolic start. There is no appetite in the Red / Blue Wall for Freedom of Movement and net contributions to build infrastructure in the East. I admire your certainty in knowing what will happen in the next 25 years. If you had said in 2010 that we would have left the EU within the next decade most people would not have believed you, even the ones who wanted that. My guess is we will have a Norway style deal within the next 5 years and maybe rejoin 5 to 10 years after that. Reality (in this case geography and economics) always wins over delusion and hubris in the end; it is just a question of how long in takes. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Oct 15, 2022 8:22:49 GMT
Listening to Hunt my impression was an adult was now in Government Doubt it will be enough to save the tories, but it may reduce the huge poll leads a little Then again... Labour just has to refer to his time as Health Secretary, in particular when he "said" that there were 168 hours a week so he didn't understand what junior doctors could work 190 hours a.week. |
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 8:25:19 GMT
"There is no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale." Given that polls already show a majority for rejoin and given that the majority of the daft pricks who voted for leave were over 55 that seems an interesting extension of denialism both denying current reality and denying mortality. Add in a sprinkling of faux European super state insanity and you have the perfect brexitanian. My views are my own. Quite happy with the reality. But it could be made a lot better by dialogue and cooperation. You conflate a world wide crisis with "Brexit" all you want, but it is you who want an alternative reality. No political party is advocating rejoin outside the SNP and Sinn Féin. I think you need to be looking at forming the Rejoiners Alliance. Or maybe a Remoaners Therapy Group. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 8:29:50 GMT
Latest ISW report talks again about conscription. Putin has announced an end to further partial mobilisation, though that might be largely propaganda window dressing in light of suitable men fleeing the country. The normal 6 monthly draft for military service starting 1 october was postponed for a month, and ISW suggest training facilities simply had too many people to deal with at once. Thus ending mobilisation in favour of the new normal batch of recruits. Some 50,000 conscripts have already been sent to the front after 2-4 weeks of training, to continue learning 'on the job'. Training in some cases seems to mean being sent to a camp without adequate accommodation, equipment, food or even officers. Russians seem to be carrying out arson attacks on recruitment centres.
ISW continue to think there isnt a real possibility of a further invasion of Ukaine from Belarus, and that activities there are more defensive, trying to suppress pro Ukrainian activity. They reckon Lukashenko wouldnt risk invading Ukraine because it might tip his country into deposing him.
They think that while Russia is reporting some gains of territory in Donbas, all they are doing is wasting resources fighting over small and unimportant villages.
Children continue to be removed from their homes in occupied territory and are being sent to foster homes either in crimea or russia, which might be considerd to constitute a crime of genocide. Ukrainian children are being forced to join pro russian youth movements.
Putin stated the recent spate of long range attacks on Ukrain has achievd its goal against 22 of 29 specific targets, so they are moving on to a different phase. ISW continue to think its simply a way to end what was always an unsustainable show of force.
There seems to have been a bit of a crackdown against bloggers who have been going off message. Putin's interest lies in blame for failures falling other than upon himself, and incompetence of the Russian ministry of defence has often been highlighted by bloggers to his personal advantage. (its a bit like blaming the EU for failings of the Uk government).
Ukraine continues to attack Russian support bases behind their lines. Russia has sent more troops to defend the nuclear ractors they control. Theres something funny going on about nuclear fuel at the reactors. Russia has said it will refuel them, but Ukraine says they already have 2 years supply on site. (nuclear fuel rods stay in service for years). Russia says its building a cover for the storage facilty for spent rods. I wonder if its simply planning to pull them all and take them back to Russia.(I mean, if they are about to lose control of them, better to have 2 years free fuel for a reactor back home)
Kyrgystan reports about 3/4 million Russians passing through their country departing Russia. However there is some discrepancy in their counting and maybe 200,000 are still there which is upsetting the locals.
Russians are seeking partisans operating in occupied territory reporting on their activities. A policeman in Belgorod (in Russia) has been arrested suspected of providing information to Ukraine.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 8:38:27 GMT
There is no chance of rejoin in the next 25 year timescale. As I keep saying, we have left. Yes you do keep saying it. Which is what i totally dont understand, because what we should have learnt over the last ten years is that absolutely anything is possible. There are more people pro rejoin than were pro leave, and that happened. Surely we are currently spending massively on support for eastern Europe? And there is a ready support for it? The reason why the Uk was so keen to support new eastern european countries was precisely to separate them from Russia. That motive just came back with a vengeance. As to freedom of movement, half the conservative party is currently talking about freedom of movement from all sorts of countries, which I have always felt is a lot worse than from european nations which are far more culturally compatible (and bluntly, white.) Plus we had the handy ability to send back all those pesky illegal immigrants to france. I for one want back those European medical staff. And the farm workers were useful too. And the shopkeepers, and all the others. We could do without Russian billionairs though. |
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 8:38:57 GMT
jib - don't think anyone can ever be so certain about any major political decision over any timescale more than around 5 years. Brexit is having a very negative impact on the economy. As Mark Carney said yesterday, in 2016 the UK economy was 90% the size of Germany's, now, and before this latest round of flagellation, we're down to 70%. That's a massive, massive movement in relative economic performance. My view on this is that talk of rejoining is currently taboo, but that won't last. I've often commented in the past about how politicians don't actually lead. The ban on smoking was deemed 'too controversial' for years, until it was done to huge public support. My local council fought for 18 months against objections to wheelie bins, and two weeks after they were adopted everyone thought they were brilliant. These are obviously much smaller controversies, but things change, and when they do, it tends to move fast. I can see us back in 5 years, but that isn't a prediction.
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 8:43:22 GMT
Get the sense that Hunt is looking to channel his inner Ken Clarke.
The parallels with '92 are uncanny. A new chancellor, picking up after an economic policy disaster where the entire edifice of financial policy has unraveled overnight, with a right wing still baying for tax cuts in the hope that this will turn the polls around, and a more moderate chancellor listening to the markets and digging in, refusing to countenance a pre-election giveaway in favour of a safe policy of avoiding any unvecessary harm.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 8:44:19 GMT
Even Truss started going to european meetings.... if the EU didnt exist, it would be necessary to invent it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 8:47:03 GMT
Despite the opinions of contributors who have the ghosts of Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander living rent free in their head it is liberal democrat policy to rejoin the European union.
A road map to rejoin was to be debated at this year's conference but conference was cancelled as it clashed with Mrs Windsor's funeral.
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 8:48:29 GMT
Even Truss started going to european meetings.... if the EU didnt exist, it would be necessary to invent it. We are still European still members of the Council of Europe and still fully signed up to the ECHR. And I congratulate that. |
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 8:56:33 GMT
Despite the opinions of contributors who have the ghosts of Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander living rent free in their head it is liberal democrat policy to rejoin the European union. A road map to rejoin was to be debated at this year's conference but conference was cancelled as it clashed with Mrs Windsor's funeral. Keep going to that therapy group. Redemption for the Lib Dems isn't just a dream. "Believe!" - in fact run around a park in an orange jumpsuit shouting it out aloud. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 9:05:13 GMT
jib Did you have too much cheese at the Bangor Pizzeria last night? You seem a little bit more deranged than normal today. Ask the tenants in your head for some advice on a quiet space.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 9:10:47 GMT
Interest article on war criminal Putin's new cannon fodder.
Apparently the new conscripts are buying their own equipment including body armour as that provided is either non existent or woefully inadequate.
It did actually remind me when I first became a firearms officer, the met police body armour at the time was either massively heavy or effectively as much use as a gillet.
Officers routinely purchased body armour by mail order from the U.S. along with torches and other items of equipment to replace the discount bin at Woolworths stuff that the met provided.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2022 9:13:16 GMT
jib Did you have too much cheese at the Bangor Pizzeria last night? You seem a little bit more deranged than normal today. Impossible. Off you go to your therapy group Steve. |
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 9:15:12 GMT
jib Did you have too much cheese at the Bangor Pizzeria last night? You seem a little bit more deranged than normal today. Ask the tenants in your head for some advice on a quiet space. Keep believing mate. The Lib Dems and you are perfect bedfellows. |
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Post by davwel on Oct 15, 2022 9:16:31 GMT
Hunt was given much too gentle a treatment on Radio 4 Today. He should have been told bluntly that spending cuts are simply not acceptable while any tax cuts are in his budget.
Why didn`t Kearney ask about his intentions on public-sector pay? Why didn`t Kearney ask about when he would introduce wide tax increases on the better-off. Instead we had a soft question on free school meals, and Kearney didn`t have the brains/courtesy to point out she was concerned only about English schools.
Yet earlier she was trying to disrupt Labour`s Lammy by talking over the top of him.
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 9:17:11 GMT
jib Did you have too much cheese at the Bangor Pizzeria last night? You seem a little bit more deranged than normal today. Ask the tenants in your head for some advice on a quiet space. Keep believing mate. The Lib Dems and you are perfect bedfellows, get drawing those graphs for them. |
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Post by EmCat on Oct 15, 2022 9:42:19 GMT
Hunt was given much too gentle a treatment on Radio 4 Today. He should have been told bluntly that spending cuts are simply not acceptable while any tax cuts are in his budget. Why didn`t Kearney ask about his intentions on public-sector pay? Why didn`t Kearney ask about when he would introduce wide tax increases on the better-off. Instead we had a soft question on free school meals, and Kearney didn`t have the brains/courtesy to point out she was concerned only about English schools. Yet earlier she was trying to disrupt Labour`s Lammy by talking over the top of him. Perhaps Miriam Morgolyes' ire was also being directed at the interviewer, as well as the interviewee |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 15, 2022 9:45:38 GMT
At the time of the 2010 GE iwas a member of the Lib Dems (That ended after LDs backed Lansley's NHS reforms). In that election I was canvassing here in Newcastle which had a LD run council at the time. Many of the people i canvassed made comment along the lines of, I vote Lib Dem in the local elections but Labour nationally. Some went on to say that while they generally agreed with LD policies they couldn't see them forming a government and therefore they would continue to vote Lab nationally.
Suffice to say that while the Lib Dems continued to control Newcastle Council, Lab held all four Newcastle constituencies.
The bottom line is that local elections are often not indicative of the national situation even in the same area.
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Post by caroline on Oct 15, 2022 9:49:32 GMT
I am going to stick my neck out and predict that the next General Election will be in the spring of 2023. I really don’t think it is necessary for Batty to exhort the LP to keep playing the mantra “We need a General Election” the LP are already doing this and the volume is being turned up every day. Every other party is joining in and the electorate seem to have got the message. The press will eventually amplify this even further.
Truss now has few options, she may be forced out my her own MPS, she may resign, she may try to carry on, I don’t think it matters much what happens now to her personally. She has put the final nail in the coffin of the Tory Party. The party is so divided, she has lost the support of the far right by abandoning the policies she stood on to get elected and what is left of the centre hate her. She has such (apparent) faith in her own rightness (or righteousness) that she won’t go without a fight .....she is also reckless. My guess is that after a few more weeks (or possibly months) maybe after Christmas when much more shit will hit the fan, she will rally the right and call an election saying she will stand on her principles (!).
I know most of you will say this is wishful thinking (and maybe it is ) but I will put a pound on it.
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