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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 22:51:14 GMT
But not according to the latest local election results. You can cling to that if you want to.  Well, you say that and Labour may very well be 80% up in the latest polls but…… have you seen the latest Parish Council results from Nether Warblington? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 22:56:14 GMT
Dave I think it seems very likely that Labour will win the next GE, but just intrigued that actual elections, however local and irrelevant don't show a massive move to Labour. Surely a rising tide raises all boats? Is it possible that those replying to VI intention questions are just saying Labour because they are fed up with this lot and Labour are the obvious alternative (in UK elections to forestall oldnat 🙂). The only real elections we're having at present are local by-elections so I like to keep an eye on them. Possibly Labour will smash them all next week. Perhaps not. It seems as though you are suggesting that Scotland is no longer a member of the polity of the United Kingdom if you are suggesting that only Labour offers an alternative to the Conservatives throughout the entire Kingdom. (  <<<<Pompous, cross and anonymous Scots person.) |
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Post by mercian on Oct 14, 2022 23:03:58 GMT
@crofty 🤣 Och aye the noo! (again emoji is primarily to annoy robbiealive) |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 14, 2022 23:15:56 GMT
Dave Is it possible that those replying to VI intention questions are just saying Labour because they are fed up with this lot and Labour are the obvious alternative (in UK elections to forestall oldnat 🙂). |
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Post by mercian on Oct 14, 2022 23:22:42 GMT
Dave Is it possible that those replying to VI intention questions are just saying Labour because they are fed up with this lot and Labour are the obvious alternative (in UK elections to forestall oldnat 🙂). (sigh) ok, Labour are massively ahead in the polls, whether including NI or not. I was just attempting to explain why a lot of people are saying Labour in polls, but it isn't so far reflected in the only elections that are happening. This has been the case for some time, not just yesterday. |
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Post by eor on Oct 14, 2022 23:43:40 GMT
mercian - a simpler factor could be that the people who voted Tory in 2019 and are now telling pollsters they'd vote Labour in the next GE just don't overlap much with the the people who actually vote in local govt by-elections? It does make some intuitive sense that the kind of Tory voter who would even know there is a local council by-election happening today, and be motivated to go and vote in it, is quite probably in the 20+% of respondents telling pollsters they'd still vote Tory. So national polling detecting a genuine collapse in support wouldn't necessarily be reflected in these contests at all.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 14, 2022 23:44:03 GMT
So, how well do you think voters in NI are expressing their intention to vote Labour (especially in most polls which are GB only) - where there are no Labour candidates? You seem a bit confused on this geography thingie. (sigh) ok, Labour are massively ahead in the polls, whether including NI or not. I was just attempting to explain why a lot of people are saying Labour in polls, but it isn't so far reflected in the only elections that are happening. This has been the case for some time, not just yesterday.
As a Ukanian nationalist you may regret that lack of a single cohesive political framework throughout the UK but, in the words of the SoS for Scotland, "Suck it up". |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 14, 2022 23:45:51 GMT
Dave Is it possible that those replying to VI intention questions are just saying Labour because they are fed up with this lot and Labour are the obvious alternative (in UK elections to forestall oldnat 🙂). By voting SDLP, who informally take the Labour whip. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 14, 2022 23:51:44 GMT
mercian - a simpler factor could be that the people who voted Tory in 2019 and are now telling pollsters they'd vote Labour in the next GE just don't overlap much with the the people who actually vote in local govt by-elections? It does make some intuitive sense that the kind of Tory voter who would even know there is a local council by-election happening today, and be motivated to go and vote in it, is quite probably in the 20+% of respondents telling pollsters they'd still vote Tory. So national polling detecting a genuine collapse in support wouldn't necessarily be reflected in these contests at all. That backs up my point that the Labour VI in opinion polls is soft - i.e. it contains a lot of people who may not even bother voting in the next GE. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 15, 2022 0:09:40 GMT
Here's another one. The Tories' worst result since the war was 30.7% of votes cast in 1997. They still got 165 seats. Though that sort of result would be a record change on the previous GE and would be appalling for them and would probably take a decade to recover just like last time, it's far from the oblivion that some posters are hoping for. There has to be some sort of RoC party, even if the centre keeps moving left. This could be Starmer's Labour or perhaps another party (IMO).
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Post by eor on Oct 15, 2022 0:22:55 GMT
mercian - a simpler factor could be that the people who voted Tory in 2019 and are now telling pollsters they'd vote Labour in the next GE just don't overlap much with the the people who actually vote in local govt by-elections? It does make some intuitive sense that the kind of Tory voter who would even know there is a local council by-election happening today, and be motivated to go and vote in it, is quite probably in the 20+% of respondents telling pollsters they'd still vote Tory. So national polling detecting a genuine collapse in support wouldn't necessarily be reflected in these contests at all. That backs up my point that the Labour VI in opinion polls is soft - i.e. it contains a lot of people who may not even bother voting in the next GE. I don't think it does back that up - I'm suggesting a reason the two things plausibly aren't related. Basically that in many cases you'd get the same result in the local election by-election whatever people were planning to do at the next GE, and however sincerely or strongly they plan to do it - cos the people that would change in a GE perhaps aren't the ones likely to be involved in a local council by-election at all. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 15, 2022 0:23:47 GMT
So, how well do you think voters in NI are expressing their intention to vote Labour (especially in most polls which are GB only) - where there are no Labour candidates? You seem a bit confused on this geography thingie. By voting SDLP, who informally take the Labour whip.
However, within the community that votes SDLP or SF, SDLP are very much the minor party, so your answer to my question to mercian , even on your parameters, would have to be "not very well". |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 15, 2022 0:28:34 GMT
There has to be some sort of RoC party, even if the centre keeps moving left. This could be Starmer's Labour or perhaps another party (IMO). |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 5:32:36 GMT
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 6:13:49 GMT
Most of the media is as ever chasing the circus, with only a few actually hunting down the real story. Chris Giles at the FT is one of them, raising some beefy questions about the fact that around £40bn of unfunded promises remain after today's climbdown on Corporation Tax.
There remains a huge hole in the public finances, and Tory MPs don't seem to realise this.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 6:17:39 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 6:27:30 GMT
Mark Carney on Brexit, quoted in the FT: “Put it this way, in 2016 the British economy was 90 per cent the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70 per cent. And that calculation was made before today.” Thats one hell of a lot. We probably managed covid worse than them, but they must now be suffering more from energy difficulties than we are. And brexit effects havent finished, they will keep on destroying Uk industry. Thats a brexit bonus loss of some 22%.
Hardly surprising we have inflation given our exports keeps falling back compared to imports. Pound climbed to $2 in the labour years, and only fell to about $1.60 after the 2008 crash where it stabilised again. It been falling ever since brexit became a possibility to about $1.10 now. Thats a brexit bonus loss of 27%
Against the euro it was about 1.50 under labour before 2008, then dropped nearly to 1.0. Then it climbed back to 1.4 under con until the brexit stuff started happening, Now back down to 1.1. Brexit bonus loss 21%.
Wonder when politicians are going to wake up to the fact rejoin is the only option? Traditionally its said that a falling currency improves your competitiveness. Unfortunatley thats less true when you also import most of the raw materials (or indeed manufactured parts). But here the issue with brexit is likely to be industry simply moving out of the Uk completely because it is no longer a competitive place to be based. Truss and Kwarteng seem to acknowledge that fact. Their budget was supposed to make the Uk an attractive place to be based again. They tried to do it by cutting taxes, but high taxes isnt the problem, its no longer being inside the EU whch is the problem.
Its interesting Truss and kwarteng realised the harm done by brexit even if they wont admit it yet. recovering from this will take decades, and thats after we rejoin and stop letting it get worse.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 6:34:09 GMT
mercian I thought you might like to know some of the background behind the Leicester result. Labour’s candidate Rajul Tejura has faced accusations she is a supporter of India’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) government, and a picture of her in front of a lifesize cutout of Narendra Modi, at an event she organised after his election victory in 2019, was shared widely on social media. A spokesperson for Tejura said she was not a member or supporter of the BJP. The city’s Labour mayor, Peter Soulsby, has commissioned an independent review to determine whether extremist Hindutva ideology, parts of which are pushed by the BJP in India, encouraged the disturbances last month. The advocacy group Muslim Engagement and Development previously issued a statement saying it was concerned about Tejura standing as a candidate “during a period of heightened tension in the city” and urged the local Labour party to reconsider. Her candidacy was also endorsed by the disgraced former Leicester East MP Keith Vaz, who appeared on a number of her campaign leaflets. Over 50% of the population of North Evington identify as Muslim.
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Post by alec on Oct 15, 2022 6:36:17 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 6:43:06 GMT
David Lammy on Radio 4 this morning was a little more flexible on whether they would have a 1% cut in income tax, suggesting they would need to see the OBR forecast before they can make a decision.
Not sure if this is an official change of direction or not.
Personally I think as much as I would like a tax cut, the public finances can't afford it and if it is a choice between tax cuts and not cutting public services, I would go for the latter
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 6:43:44 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 6:54:18 GMT
Yes all the polls are wrong and some local by-elections (the meaninglessness of which has been often discussed here before) are shining a light on the true picture... Con are in an impossible position because the economy is only going to get worse for the next 2 years. Thus they cannot win the next election. Unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat. Truss and kwarteng realised Brexit is killing the Uk economy, and thats why they tried to introduce a pro industry budget. Leaving the EU had made the Uk a bad place to operate industry, so they talked about tax cuts and enterprise zones and cutting red tape. But I dont believe any of that is enough to compensate for the joined up economic benefits of being inside the EU market. And we all saw what markets thought of their attempt. They could be right however in their estimation that the only way to manage brexit is slashing UK standards of living and social services and giving a much bigger cut to bribe industry to stay here. But thats simply a massive criticism of the disaster which is Brexit and accepting we now all have to be poorer. I still think there is a chance of temporary recovery of the Uk economy before the next election, and the budget was designed to be flashy and controversial so they could claim it had worked. The Uk economy will recover if the world economy recovers, but Alec above highlighted its relative decline against Germany. Thats going to continue. I dont believe things will look good, but there did exist the possibility a chancellor could claim it was the start of the recovery he had created, so please 5 more years to finish the job. That doesnt work unless you actually did something controversial, and thats just been cancelled. The other strategy con MPs have been operating for some time is to distance themselves from their own PM. It was uniquely Johnson's fault. Now it is Truss' fault. Sure they could replace her, but Hunt could well be the chosen compromise PM that the party has chosen. He wont get the job of PM, possibly doesnt even want it just now. But as Chancellor with the backing of the MPs, he can control cabinet and policy. While Truss looks an idiot in front of the nation, still the scapegoat. Hunt will hope to get credit as a competent if uninspiring chancellor who did undo the damage done by Kwarteng. While Truss still owns the policy which put up everyones mortgage by 5%. See what happened there? It isnt the fault of con your mortgage is crippling you and so is your energy bill, its Truss' fault.
So coming back to by elections...the strategy for a con MP in a now flakey seat come a general election is to distance themselves from Truss and say they opposed her. According to circumstances also to say they opposed Johnson on lockdowns, and May on Brexit. That they personally are so much better than the party as a whole. Make the election local and personal.
Anyone think of a better plan apart from announcing negotiations to rejoin EU? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 7:00:52 GMT
@danny
No one would like to see an immediate return more than me.
But the damage the brexitanian luddites have inflicted on the UK is huge.
I suspect the European union would be reluctant to allow the UK to rejoin for economic reasons although the political gain of seeing a country scuttle off to nationalist exeptionalist stupidity and return changed within a decade would probably out weigh this.
The most straightforward first move is rejoining the economic elements the single market and customs union this can be done out with of membership by an off the shelf eea type model or by treaty arrangements the economic benefits are huge and would probably get the incoming Labour government out of the hole the Tories have buried us in.
Full membership can follow.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 15, 2022 7:07:12 GMT
mercian - a simpler factor could be that the people who voted Tory in 2019 and are now telling pollsters they'd vote Labour in the next GE just don't overlap much with the the people who actually vote in local govt by-elections? It does make some intuitive sense that the kind of Tory voter who would even know there is a local council by-election happening today, and be motivated to go and vote in it, is quite probably in the 20+% of respondents telling pollsters they'd still vote Tory. So national polling detecting a genuine collapse in support wouldn't necessarily be reflected in these contests at all. I think you're right. If turnouts go to 20% or below, which is about where they are for council by-elections, then it makes sense that only the most hardened and habitual voters turn out. These tend to be the Over 60s too where turnouts, whatever the nature of the election, are higher. That seems to suggest a pretty Tory till I die demographic filing in to the near deserted polling stations when Upper Slaughter gives its solemn verdict on who it wants to represent them on Stroud town council. Also, as I said in a previous post, you also have to factor in not just the derisory turnouts but also the often maverick candidates standing, local idiosyncrasies and the fact that they take place with little if any campaigning at all. No hustings, press coverage, leafleting or canvassing. They really aren't much of a guide to nationwide political opinion or voting behaviour. Even I had to persuade myself that Labour's two recent gains in Redditch weren't really a harbinger of anything at all. I think the turnout in one of the wards was about 18%. Most voters probably weren't even aware the elections were taking place! Where we have had whole council and mayoral elections, like last May, and parliamentary by elections, the Tories have done very poorly. These elections had much higher turnout, profile and campaigning than you'd ever see in a local council by-election. If these polls persist, it will be interesting to see what transpires in a parliamentary by-election. Now that would really tell us something meaningful. |
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Post by jib on Oct 15, 2022 7:19:51 GMT
Danny No chance of rejoin. Even the Lib Dems know that is a dead duck. In fact, if Labour wanted to see their very healthy poll lead evaporate in a flash, that would be a policy that would do it. I don't oppose a better deal with the EU, but there is no Federalist option on that. steve"Full membership can follow." You must think the UK electorate to be completely stupid. Keep on dreaming.
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Post by hireton on Oct 15, 2022 7:24:14 GMT
Hunt has just signalled spending cuts and tax rises. Farewell Trussonomics and farewell Truss as a PM with authority.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2022 7:26:04 GMT
I certainly think some of the UK electorate are completely stupid.
The daft pricks who voted for Truss in the Tory party come to mind and those who still have a slavish cultist faith that their cognitively impaired decision in 2016 was still the right thing to do and still has popular support.
I'm sure there's no one like that posting here of course.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 7:27:33 GMT
@danny No one would like to see an immediate return more than me. But the damage the brexitanian luddites have inflicted on the UK is huge. I suspect the European union would be reluctant to allow the UK to rejoin for economic reasons although the political gain of seeing a country scuttle off to nationalist exeptionalist stupidity and return changed within a decade would probably out weigh this. The most straightforward first move is rejoining the economic elements the single market and customs union this can be done out with of membership by an off the shelf eea type model or by treaty arrangements the economic benefits are huge and would probably get the incoming Labour government out of the hole the Tories have buried us in. Full membership can follow. Yes I agree immediate rejoin isnt going to happen. But policy has to go in that direction for anything to happen. The reality of the Norway option is its in a political deadlock where those who refuse to be part of the EU are headbutting against those who think they have to be, with the result Norway comes under the control of the EU as a vassal state. Norway gets the market benefits, but loses its independence because it has no direct voice in changes to the EU which it must comply with. The Norway situation is far worse for the Uk than was our membership, especially from the leave viewpoint. Especially for a country which usually got its own way whenever there was an EU decision to be made. Leavers just thew away the new british empire called the EU.
The bottom line why we joined the EU originally was because we had no choice. There is no better thing for the Uk to do situated as it is.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 15, 2022 7:34:00 GMT
No chance of rejoin. Even the Lib Dems know that is a dead duck. In fact, if Labour wanted to see their very healthy poll lead evaporate in a flash, that would be a policy that would do it. I dont agree, and never have. labour voters have consistently always been pro remain, and now pro rejoin. Conservative support collapsed under May because she was refuing to carry out their wishes of leaving the EU. As soon as pro immediate brexit Johnson became PM, their vote solidified. Exactly the same would have happened in reverse had labour stood out as remain and campaigned for it. Johnson could have been beaten in his election had labour gone hard second referendum and campaigned for a change to remain. No one votes for something which isnt on offer.
And now we are even more rejoin than we were remain.
Truss and Kwarteng are well aware the current collapse of the Uk economy is down to brexit. Did you hear them repeatedly blaming the Ukraine war?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 15, 2022 7:34:39 GMT
Listening to Hunt my impression was an adult was now in Government
Doubt it will be enough to save the tories, but it may reduce the huge poll leads a little
Then again...
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<<<<Pompous, cross and anonymous Scots person.)
