pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 14, 2022 11:58:53 GMT
I don't know if this has been mentioned, and I don't think I'll have time to read everything since last night, but there were 5 local by-elections yesterday. There was 1 Conservative hold, 2 Labour holds and 2 Conservative GAINS. 1 of those gains was where Labour didn't stand, but the other was a gain from Labour. Also Labour share of the vote fell in 4 of the 5. Now I know that local by-elections mean very little, and there may well be special local circumstances and so on, but at a time when Labour are miles ahead in the national polls, doesn't this seem a little odd? It suggests to me that Labour support may be pretty soft. It has been mentioned. The Con gain in Leicester was down entirely to south Asian religious politics. The Con gain from Green in Waltham Forest was in a safe Conservative seat (67% Con in previous local elections) where there had been a fluke Green win (see Andrew's Previews for full details - Andrew Teale called this as a likely Con gain in advance). The Con hold was with 35% of the vote when Labour and Lib Dems managed an even split of the rest. I happen to agree that local election results are not fully reflecting the national polls, but nor was this a Conservative triumph. The main takeaway is that Labour need to think harder about candidate selection in Leicester and similar places. They have been caught out this way before, even at national level. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 14, 2022 12:00:40 GMT
As James O'Brien just pointed out on twitter David Blaine lasted longer in a glass box than Kwasi did as chancellor
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 14, 2022 12:01:37 GMT
What a time to be alive it's like the fall of the Roman empire but with Wi-Fi. Boris Johnson would have loved being a Roman Emperor. One of the decadent ones obviously. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 12:03:57 GMT
graham may well have thoughts on this but I am wondering if Ted Heath’s government would have worked out a lot better if Ian McLeod hadn’t died after less than two months in office in 1970. Barber seemed a poor replacement given McCleod’s reputation.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 14, 2022 12:05:19 GMT
Next Prime Minister After Liz Truss:
Rishi Sunak 12/5
Keir Starmer 3/1
Larry the Cat 5/1
Dominic Cummings 5/1
Spaffer wearing a false moustache 12/1
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Post by jimjam on Oct 14, 2022 12:06:29 GMT
My old boss had a saying.
''Assistant Heads will roll'
Eventually though the Buck has no-one else to be passed to.
I had thought that Truss would get through until May's local elections but now I think she could be gone in Canning time.
Ole George, though, died as did McCloud as CoE, so their short periods in office not really comparable.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 14, 2022 12:06:42 GMT
Lol! Nothing against Crossbat but well played. Oh dear. Joining the Bullyingdon Club and having a go at my chum Batty. Shame on you. Nothing against Crossbat, just appreciating Lulu's sharp wit! Whatever happened to Cleese? Maybe he was always a bit like that and the reason he was so good at playing Fawlty was that it was part of him. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 12:06:51 GMT
I have a feeling that if Truss IS forced out then the (yet another) new Tory leader will almost be forced to call an early General Election. It is surely unheard of to have so many different PMs, two unelected by the public, in such a short time period?
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 14, 2022 12:08:13 GMT
“ A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of @kwasikwarteng will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on @trussliz to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.” Nicholas Watt Hang on a minute, are there any serious people left in the current Tory Party? Lots of seriously worried people may be, but serious people? I think not. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 14, 2022 12:10:12 GMT
This crisis started in 2010 with austerity model and destruction of the Brown redistribution economic model. Much of the growth in wealth since there has gone to the pockets of the already wealthy, although I'd start to question how wealthy a boomer with several mortgaged and over-valued buy to let "investments" really is. While this is true, the Brownian scheme was hardly revolutionary in terms of redistribution. They came into power promising to keep to their predecessor's targets. In the end undone by Blair's military adventurism abroad on a lost cause, and then the US bank fraud nearly bankrupting the world. Its interesting how we sent in the troops to countries which were luke warms about us being there and not too keen on our ideas. yet now we have a different country Ukraine, begging to be allowed to become just like us yet we decline to send troops to help them. When Thatcher liberated the falklands islands she did at least know they wanted to be liberated. Yet we fight wars where we arent too welcome. The NHS is quietly degrading, with the emergency response system in a more or less permanent state of failure, on any reasonable metrics. Covid is a key aspect of this, but in a straw that has broken the camel's back kind of way, with other obvious factors also in play. The failure to rectify the social care crisis is another big problem, but all of these pressures have been allowed to fester for the last 12 years, and we are now seeing what a decade of poor governance means in real terms. This should be cause for national outrage, but even the left seem complicit in trying to pretend the NHS is fine. How many staff are typically off because of covid? Its 10% permanently off because of vacancies where they cannot get staff. Thats nothing to do with covid and everything to do with funding, training, planning for the NHS and is a long term problem.The government is still refusing to publish a plan how the NHS can resolve it staff shortages. Start of this can porbably be precisely dated to the conservative government starting 2010. Brexit of course made recruiting harder. We told European medics they arent welcome here, hardly helpfull when lots of them used to come to work here.
I reported an anecdote recently where someone said 'oh good Ive tested positive for covid so i can have a week off paid'. Its become a good thing to be infected. I was dead serious when I asked before how many staff are being sent home because of positive tests and how many people are therefore not being treated/die because the ambulance doesnt come in time or their op is cancelled? Its time to forget covid and treat it according to symptoms, not as a deadly contagious disease.
There was another appeal on the radio this morning couched as a news story, that vaccine boosters are available now. The nation knows there isnt much point in them unless you are high risk. The NHS has to catch up.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 14, 2022 12:13:34 GMT
It's not that simple. It's a case of an increasingly geriatric population that expects an already overburdened younger working population to pay for increasingly expensive life and quality of life enhancing treatments. Each year, more and more people retire and rightly expect these standards of older age health care to be maintained. It's not sustainable as things stand. I'm not sure what the answer is, but it's certainly not a Tory one. There is an obvious solution, and we all know what it is. You tax those who have money. In this case it means billing people after they die from their estates. Technically simple, the difficulty is con relying upon pensioner votes. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 14, 2022 12:14:56 GMT
It's reassuring that so many people are declaring that they have nothing against me.
That said, I seek, and probably deserve, much more positive endorsement than that. Declarations of unending love are more my staple. Fear and loathing more preferable even than nothing against.
You can have nothing against deep fried Mars bars, as I'm sure Old Nat hasn't, but never eat them.
In the round, I'm not wounded but probably disappointed.
In future, I will eschew blandness and err on the side of vitriol mixed in with some light fawning and ingratiation.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 14, 2022 12:16:05 GMT
There is absolutely nothing inevitable about repeat infections, they are eminently preventable and they bring no positive benefit to either individual or society, and with a little investment and good public health messaging we could quickly bring the immediate NHS crisis under some form of control and then get to work on the longer term issues. Now thats the problem. We had immunity to covid before it got here because of repeated infections causing colds. Without that, a lot of people might have died from covid.
This is very important. The current state of vaccines is they cannot replace the benefit we get from allowing, or even encouraging, circuating minor infections.
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 14, 2022 12:22:33 GMT
Rumour that Chancellorship to be offered to Jeremy Hunt. I think mandolinist predicted he would be PM by Christmas? If he takes the CoE job then this becomes a more realistic possibility. Actually, it was Hunt as LOTO, Starmer as PM. Now, call me Nostrodamus.
Will Truss call an election this PM?
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 14, 2022 12:24:37 GMT
Rumour that Chancellorship to be offered to Jeremy Hunt. I think mandolinist predicted he would be PM by Christmas? If he takes the CoE job then this becomes a more realistic possibility. Actually, it was Hunt as LOTO, Starmer as PM. Now, call me Nostrodamus.
Will Truss call an election this PM?
She would need integrity for that, so vanishingly unlikely I'd say. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 14, 2022 12:24:38 GMT
Can't see Hunt surviving the general election massacre.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 12:27:56 GMT
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 14, 2022 12:29:09 GMT
Can't see Hunt surviving the general election massacre. Peerages are quite cheap now I believe, they might have to get their leader from the Lords if things carry on like this. I do accept that he would not be leader of the opposition then though, just the Party.
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 14, 2022 12:31:35 GMT
What a time to be alive it's like the fall of the Roman empire but with Wi-Fi. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive But to be young was very heaven." Wordsworth in his radical days. I suppose everyone feels like that when young, or used to! Of course he ended a rancorous old Tory. "Oh, to be alive in such an age, when miracles are everywhere, and every inch of common air throbs a tremendous prophecy, of greater marvels yet to be". Culled this one Whitman. Not as good. Certainly "every inch of common air" is pretty bad. This more like "Growing Up in An Age of Anxiety" not " . .. . . .Optimism". |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 12:31:58 GMT
I miss ole Philp.
(His Mum should have called him “Prince” - just for a laugh.)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 12:32:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2022 12:33:55 GMT
What a time to be alive it's like the fall of the Roman empire but with Wi-Fi. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive But to be young was very heaven." Wordsworth in his radical days. I suppose everyone feels like that when young, or used to! Of course he ended a rancorous old Tory. "Oh, to be alive in such an age, when miracles are everywhere, and every inch of common air throbs a tremendous prophecy, of greater marvels yet to be". Culled this one Whitman. Not as good. Certainly "every inch of common air" is pretty bad. This more like "Growing Up in An Age of Anxiety" not " . .. . . .Optimism". Blimey Robbie, you must have wasted your whole life reading instead of learning the guitar. |
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Post by jayblanc on Oct 14, 2022 12:34:06 GMT
Kwasi clearly hasn't got a nose for survival after all. I imagine the conversation between “senior Tory MPs” and Truss was quite brief: ”Either he goes or you do Liz.” ”Right - I’ll give him a ring.” It seems that instead the conversation was a bit more like this... "Look, we've all had a chat, and now we want you to resign." "Okay, I'm hearing you, I'll make a U-Turn on National Insurance." "No, we want you to resign." "Got it, you want me to hold an emergency economic press conference. I can do that right away." "No. Look, I'll say it slowly. We. Want. You. To. Resign." "Sack Kwasi? Right away!" |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 14, 2022 12:38:11 GMT
I know this a long shot, but what about Christopher Chope as a possible stand in leader for the Tories? He holds a rock solid safe seat and he'd go down a storm with the membership. A blue rinse darling who might well be prepared to hold the fort until the party finds someone better.
He may have to stand in for quite some time though.
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Post by jayblanc on Oct 14, 2022 12:40:17 GMT
One does wonder if him being out of the country helped them announce he's been given the post before he can publicly decline it. Hard to imagine anyone jumping for joy to be Chancellor in these precise times. |
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Post by thylacine on Oct 14, 2022 12:44:03 GMT
What a time to be alive it's like the fall of the Roman empire but with Wi-Fi. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive But to be young was very heaven." Wordsworth in his radical days. I suppose everyone feels like that when young, or used to! Of course he ended a rancorous old Tory. Ah yes, but remember Et in Arcadia Ego ! |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 14, 2022 12:50:06 GMT
"Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive But to be young was very heaven." Wordsworth in his radical days. I suppose everyone feels like that when young, or used to! Of course he ended a rancorous old Tory. "Oh, to be alive in such an age, when miracles are everywhere, and every inch of common air throbs a tremendous prophecy, of greater marvels yet to be". Culled this one Whitman. Not as good. Certainly "every inch of common air" is pretty bad. This more like "Growing Up in An Age of Anxiety" not " . .. . . .Optimism". Blimey Robbie, you must have wasted your whole life reading instead of learning the guitar. The poerty quotes are hackneyed ones that are always being quoted. Tho Wordsworth strikes a chord. "Growing up ...Anxiety" was title of essay i read by someone born 1900ish. What a youth. The post-WW1 baby boomers had it rough. The chilling effect of WW1 is brought out in Testament of Youth, by V Brittain, S, Williams's mum. Us WW2 baby boomers have had it lush as Nessa used to say in Gavin & S. We didnt even have national service which blighted the experience of our European peers, as they pften lamented when i travelled around Europe late '60s & '70s. (Few novels about NS.) We did experience an "Age of Optimism..." As for McCleod I think you answered yr own question. Great loss to Heath's mob. |
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Post by eotw on Oct 14, 2022 12:54:16 GMT
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Post by wb61 on Oct 14, 2022 12:56:59 GMT
Didn't Leslie Thomas write one (or perhaps two) about national service : The Virgin Soldiers if I remember correctly It did however put me in mind of my favourite programme as a 15 year old Get Some In liked by me mainly because Jakey Smiff (three f's ) was a Teddy Boy |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 14, 2022 12:58:10 GMT
It's reassuring that so many people are declaring that they have nothing against me. That said, I seek, and probably deserve, much more positive endorsement than that. Declarations of unending love are more my staple. Fear and loathing more preferable even than nothing against. You can have nothing against deep fried Mars bars, as I'm sure Old Nat hasn't, but never eat them. In the round, I'm not wounded but probably disappointed. In future, I will eschew blandness and err on the side of vitriol mixed in with some light fawning and ingratiation. |
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