steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 10:56:48 GMT
 The Kier Starmer guide to large kitchen equipment maintenance and brexit. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 11:03:14 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 11:07:11 GMT
For me she is a clear sign that the Conservative Parliamentary Party is headed for a long period of opposition. Young, fiesty, moving up ,Red Wall . Giving up. Deadline to decide for GE'24 is Dec so likely to see a lot more in the coming days. Certainly a shame about DD though. |
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 26, 2022 11:07:43 GMT
Steve: "Brexitanians the truth hurts"Unfortunately I think that amongst true believers the ability to ignore warning signs and contrary evidence is too well entrenched for worthy efforts like this to dent conviction. However, one point that might sink in - and which I hadn't picked up on - is that the "world's 5th biggest economy" mantra has hit the buffers. We have now sunk to 6th biggest, having been overtaken by India. And with our current (lack of) growth prospects compared with France, 7th place beckons. Brexit. The gift that keeps on taking. www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/india-uk-fifth-largest-economy-world |
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Post by eotw on Nov 26, 2022 11:23:06 GMT
do we learn from History Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 11:25:23 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsSome interesting demographic/redistribution changes apparent in those projections, e.g. although LAB is predicted to take 385 seats, (i.e. c30 fewer than '97 and '01), their gains still include places that never went LAB under Blair, such as Aylesbury, Weston super Mare, IOW and Huntingdon. Unlikely to transpire quite like that, methinks. A not-to-be-sniffed-at 11 LAB gains in Scotland suggested, too, if I counted them correctly. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 11:30:57 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsIts on Twitter too. Conservative MPs look away now ! twitter.com/pollingreportuk |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 26, 2022 11:46:27 GMT
I have never replied to you since you rejoined the forum under your various alias', but have made an exception in this case Do not alter my posts to make it appear I wrote something I did not. If you want to make a point quote me and then put your comments after my quoted words. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 26, 2022 11:46:29 GMT
For me she is a clear sign that the Conservative Parliamentary Party is headed for a long period of opposition. Young, fiesty, moving up ,Red Wall . Giving up. "I'm a quitter not a fighter". Not much of a rallying call, is it? Maybe "I'm a careerist politician not an elected representative" would be better. Looked good in 2019 but not so good now. So I'm getting out. Wastes of space the lot of them, and good riddance.. They'll be taking up PR jobs in consultancies somewhere soon. |
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Post by johntel on Nov 26, 2022 11:47:01 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsIts on Twitter too. Conservative MPs look away now ! twitter.com/pollingreportukTheir prediction for my constituency Mole Valley is Tory 38% Lib Dem 31.6% Labour 21.3%, Green 5.6%, and appears to take no account of tactical voting. Surely 4% of Labour/Greens will realise that they have the power to kick out one of the worst of the Tories? Edit: I just noticed that they call it a 'uniform swing model'. It's therefore surely going to underestimate the number of Tory losses. |
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Post by graham on Nov 26, 2022 12:08:24 GMT
For me she is a clear sign that the Conservative Parliamentary Party is headed for a long period of opposition. Young, fiesty, moving up ,Red Wall . Giving up. Deadline to decide for GE'24 is Dec so likely to see a lot more in the coming days. Certainly a shame about DD though. I don't see what can prevent sitting Tory MPs agreeing to stand again whilst possibly changing their minds nearer to the election. |
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Post by graham on Nov 26, 2022 12:10:09 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsSome interesting demographic/redistribution changes apparent in those projections, e.g. although LAB is predicted to take 385 seats, (i.e. c30 fewer than '97 and '01), their gains still include places that never went LAB under Blair, such as Aylesbury, Weston super Mare, IOW and Huntingdon. Unlikely to transpire quite like that, methinks. A not-to-be-sniffed-at 11 LAB gains in Scotland suggested, too, if I counted them correctly. An MRP poll recently suggested 15 Labour seats in Scotland. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 26, 2022 12:18:28 GMT
graham'I don't see what can prevent sitting Tory MPs agreeing to stand again whilst possibly changing their minds nearer to the election' I thought the sane thing, many may wait a few months to see if there is any recovery in the tory fortunes and make the decision at a much later stage. Nothing the tory party or any party can do to stop them doing it
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 26, 2022 12:31:03 GMT
NeilJ (to TW): " Do not alter my posts to make it appear I wrote something I did not."
I wondered what this was about. A quick review of posts revealed that TW had changed what NeilJ wrote, from:
"Hard hitting from tory Minister Andrew Mitchell"
To:
"NeilJ said: Hard hitting twitter feed from Patrick Wintour (diplomatic editor for the Guardian)"
In my view, manufacturing quotes from other posters should be entirely unacceptable in a forum like this and I hope Mark will take note.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 12:37:52 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsIts on Twitter too. Conservative MPs look away now ! twitter.com/pollingreportukElectoral Calculus' most recent update 8Nov is much worse than UKPR2b's CON:173. I quite EC's 'confidence limits' approach. For CON seats: Low: 35 'Prediction': 103 High: 231 www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlAs we've discussed before then 200 would be quite an achievement given the external factors and the ditch that Boris and Truss dug for Rishi. I'd be fairly sure many CON MPs are aware of their vulnerability and likelihood of needing to find a new job after GE'24. Probably won't stop the suicidal factional infighting though. Sir Keir will end up with a lot of 'low hanging fruit' for policy when LAB take over (eg Onshore wind farms, planning/housing reform, etc) PS Map link for EC's prediction (so folks can see the individual seats, click on 'Change' to see the 'predicted' huge gains for LAB) www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/dynamicmap.html |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 12:38:59 GMT
johntel If you visit electoral calculus it provides an opportunity to factor in the tactical voting. The same numbers that provide 170 seats in uniform swing produce less than 100 with lib dems 20 or so higher using tactical voting.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 12:47:03 GMT
I just noticed that they call it a 'uniform swing model'. It's therefore surely going to underestimate the number of Tory losses. Tactical voting will likely mean CON lose more seats in E&W than 'predicted' by UNS. However, I'll use EC's 'prediction' to show how it AB'X' might mean CON keep a few seats in Scotland. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Berwickshire,%20Roxburgh%20and%20Selkirk SNP are planning to make GE'24 all about Indy so it is likely that the 'Unionist' vote will become even more tactical. Voting SLIB or SLAB in BR&S is a 'wasted vote' if you're 'most important issue' is blocking SNP. Not a huge number of seats but for Scotland then ABSNP will, IMO, likely help SLAB, SLIB and SCON. (note EC are using current boundaries for their predictions, where as Scotland might drop to 50 seats into GE'24) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 12:54:15 GMT
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Nov 26, 2022 12:55:54 GMT
Their prediction for my constituency Mole Valley is Tory 38% Lib Dem 31.6% Labour 21.3%, Green 5.6%, and appears to take no account of tactical voting. Surely 4% of Labour/Greens will realise that they have the power to kick out one of the worst of the Tories? Edit: I just noticed that they call it a 'uniform swing model'. It's therefore surely going to underestimate the number of Tory losses. I've just taken a closer look at the predictions etc for the Stone constituency. Leaving aside the potential boundary changes and, indeed, whether the Father of the House, Bill Cash, will stand again (he will be 84 in 2024) I looked at the historic prediction line and noted that Labour actually went into a lead between the 19th and 28th October. Which surely has to be some sort of unofficial record. As it is, Cash sits on a 64% and Labour were the closest challenger on 24% in 2019. However the current prediction is for that 64% to drop to 46% with Labour on 40% and LD+Greens totalling 12%. Tactical voting requires half of the LD/Greens to vote Labour which sounds a bit of a stretch to me. |
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Post by graham on Nov 26, 2022 12:59:40 GMT
It really does not follow that because the SNP wish to fight the next Westminster GE on Independence that the electorate of Scotland will oblige them. How salient is Indpendence as an issue nowadays? I suspect that - like Brexit - most people have 'moved on' and are unlikely to welcome the prospect of yet a further period of endless constitutional wrangling. Other matters are likely to feel far more pressing.Moreover even polls on Independence suggesting something close to a 50%/50% Yes /No divide do not really indicate how important the issue now is for voters. How many of the 50% inclined to vote Yes actually see it as the overriding issue of the day? That figure is probably closer to 30%.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 13:05:29 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 13:22:30 GMT
"I'm a quitter not a fighter". Not much of a rallying call, is it? Maybe "I'm a careerist politician not an elected representative" would be better. Looked good in 2019 but not so good now. So I'm getting out. Wastes of space the lot of them, and good riddance.. They'll be taking up PR jobs in consultancies somewhere soon. Ah there speaks the grizzled old Labour warrior. Scuffed and holed foot leather, testimony to the decades of loyal ,dogged service to the Cause. Through Fair weather and Foul . Always there. Never in doubt. You tell 'em Old Soldier .  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 13:32:53 GMT
"I'm a quitter not a fighter". Not much of a rallying call, is it? Maybe "I'm a careerist politician not an elected representative" would be better. Looked good in 2019 but not so good now. So I'm getting out. Wastes of space the lot of them, and good riddance.. They'll be taking up PR jobs in consultancies somewhere soon. Ah there speaks the grizzled old Labour warrior. Scuffed and holed foot leather, testimony to the decades of loyal ,dogged service to the Cause. Through Fair weather and Foul . Always there. Never in doubt. You tell 'em Old Soldier . Bit weird. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 13:37:41 GMT
"I'm a quitter not a fighter". Not much of a rallying call, is it? Maybe "I'm a careerist politician not an elected representative" would be better. Looked good in 2019 but not so good now. So I'm getting out. Wastes of space the lot of them, and good riddance.. They'll be taking up PR jobs in consultancies somewhere soon. Ah there speaks the grizzled old Labour warrior. Scuffed and holed foot leather, testimony to the decades of loyal ,dogged service to the Cause. Through Fair weather and Foul . Always there. Never in doubt. You tell 'em Old Soldier . So, no "careerist politician's" in LAB then (eg Sir Keir who served for Corbyn - although that is all forgiven in my book)?  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 26, 2022 13:46:57 GMT
Ah there speaks the grizzled old Labour warrior. Scuffed and holed foot leather, testimony to the decades of loyal ,dogged service to the Cause. Through Fair weather and Foul . Always there. Never in doubt. You tell 'em Old Soldier . So, no "careerist politician's" in LAB then (eg Sir Keir who served for Corbyn - although that is all forgiven in my book)? It depends what you want to do with your career, simply enrich yourself and network or be mainly driven by trying to make a positive difference. |
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Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 26, 2022 14:00:33 GMT
Ah there speaks the grizzled old Labour warrior. Scuffed and holed foot leather, testimony to the decades of loyal ,dogged service to the Cause. Through Fair weather and Foul . Always there. Never in doubt. You tell 'em Old Soldier . Bit weird. Colin on form today! 😀 That comment ranks pretty high on the snide-ometer. |
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Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 26, 2022 14:08:30 GMT
Ah there speaks the grizzled old Labour warrior. Scuffed and holed foot leather, testimony to the decades of loyal ,dogged service to the Cause. Through Fair weather and Foul . Always there. Never in doubt. You tell 'em Old Soldier . So, no "careerist politician's" in LAB then (eg Sir Keir who served for Corbyn - although that is all forgiven in my book)? I never read your posters normally, but this caught my eye. God, you do talk tripe! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 14:23:24 GMT
Presumably being fed up of being laughed at because of their absurd claims of brexitanian success the brexitoids have taken to laughing at themselves. youtu.be/_b-tAbAGgeo |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 14:30:21 GMT
So, no "careerist politician's" in LAB then (eg Sir Keir who served for Corbyn - although that is all forgiven in my book)? I never read your posters normally, but this caught my eye. God, you do talk tripe! Are you trying to say that Sir Keir didn't serve in Corbyn's shadow cabinet? As I said "all forgiven in my book" as politicans from most parties do whatever it takes to climb the greasy poll. You even see likes of LDEM Truss become a 'Tory' as there are more "career politician" opportunities with CON or LAB (or SNP in Scotland) PS My 'poster' of Sir Keir might have caught your eye. He does look quite dashing in Union Jack clothing. Only a few days until I'll change the avatar to the Xmas tree though as I know some folks don't like the flag waving stuff |
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Post by EmCat on Nov 26, 2022 14:32:53 GMT
graham 'I don't see what can prevent sitting Tory MPs agreeing to stand again whilst possibly changing their minds nearer to the election' I thought the sane thing, many may wait a few months to see if there is any recovery in the tory fortunes and make the decision at a much later stage. Nothing the tory party or any party can do to stop them doing it I wondered that too. Initially I thought there was some parliamentary procedure about notifying an intention to stand down before the next election, but all I could find seems to be a CCHQ edict about giving them until December 5 to make their decision (based on stories in the Daily Mail and Independent, though the DM seems to be quoting an earlier Times article) "Tory leaders are bracing for as many as 80 MPs to announce they will not fight the next election, expected in 2024, the Times reported. They have been given until December 5 this year to make a decision." While it is entirely possible that some Tory MPs might want to change their minds, that might upset head office, if they have planned out the next prospective candidate for a constituency, only to have to revert to the original incumbent. |
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The Kier Starmer guide to large kitchen equipment maintenance and brexit.
