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Post by steamdrivenandy on Nov 25, 2022 21:54:07 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsIt's based on the current boundaries. On that basis our old Newcastle under Lyme constituency reverts to Labour by a substantial margin, but our 'new' constituency remains Tory but with a much reduced margin. However if our ward moves into NuL as the Boundary Commission suggests, the Labour majority will be even higher. Quite how the Stone constituency will make out under the changes is more difficult to predict as it will have altered substantially. |
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Post by jib on Nov 25, 2022 21:55:24 GMT
Also Switzerland has no less than three official languages: French, German, and Italian. Some Swiss speak a fourth, Romansh. I was told a long time ago, that if two German-speaking Swiss were conversing and a French-speaking Swiss joined them, they would immediately switch to French out of respect for the newcomer. That's different to my experience in Wales. Several Welshmen were conversing in English in a pub when I walked in and they immediately switched to what I assume was Welsh (it sounded like gibberish interspersed with regular throat-clearing). No stereotypes involved there then. What was this pub called? The Cock and Bull? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 25, 2022 21:58:01 GMT
Also Switzerland has no less than three official languages: French, German, and Italian. Some Swiss speak a fourth, Romansh. I was told a long time ago, that if two German-speaking Swiss were conversing and a French-speaking Swiss joined them, they would immediately switch to French out of respect for the newcomer. That's different to my experience in Wales. Several Welshmen were conversing in English in a pub when I walked in and they immediately switched to what I assume was Welsh (it sounded like gibberish interspersed with regular throat-clearing). |
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Post by mercian on Nov 25, 2022 21:58:24 GMT
Everything in writing all around you is in standard German yet the language people are using is impenetrable. Swiss German is basically not German and to my mind should be considered a language in it's own right. You can see this on the few occasions it is written down. I understand it even differs from canton to canton to an extent that can make comprehension difficult. They do however all understand and speak standard German and will use this if you address them in it but frankly it seems to make as much sense there to use English.. That can happen in the UK too. I find broad Scots and particularly Northern Irish accents hard to understand. It can even happen quite nearby. Perhaps my brain is fading, but although I have lived on the fringes of the Black Country for 40 years I had a similar problem a few years ago. I was in the pub where we played chess at the time, and a group came in who I'd never seen before. They were talking animatedly and though the rhythms seemed like English and I recognised the odd word, I had to ask a friend if they were talking English! Though it's beginning to break down with greater mobility, the Black Country is notorious for having a number of different dialects in a very small area. |
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Post by alec on Nov 25, 2022 22:11:44 GMT
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Post by mercian on Nov 25, 2022 22:15:22 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsI note that it's using current constituencies, which I suppose is correct until if or when the new boundaries are implemented, but could be a bit misleading. EDIT: beaten to it by steamdrivenandy |
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Post by mercian on Nov 25, 2022 22:19:42 GMT
That's different to my experience in Wales. Several Welshmen were conversing in English in a pub when I walked in and they immediately switched to what I assume was Welsh (it sounded like gibberish interspersed with regular throat-clearing). No stereotypes involved there then. What was this pub called? The Cock and Bull? No idea, it was over 30 years ago. Somewhere in North Wales when the children were small. They did allow children in, which was unusual in England at the time. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 25, 2022 22:21:57 GMT
Others may already know this but the continuity UKPR site has a seat prediction section. I can't seem to find an explanation of the methodology but it's entertaining to look uo your own constituency if nothing else: pollingreport.uk/seatsIt's based on the current boundaries. On that basis our old Newcastle under Lyme constituency reverts to Labour by a substantial margin, but our 'new' constituency remains Tory but with a much reduced margin. However if our ward moves into NuL as the Boundary Commission suggests, the Labour majority will be even higher. Quite how the Stone constituency will make out under the changes is more difficult to predict as it will have altered substantially. I looked at my constituency of Wantage and it was a Tory hold but only because of split opposition with the incumbent Tory getting 33% and with Lab and the LDs on around 30% each. Iād like to think that come the election voting will be a bit more tactical than that. It shows the Tories holding one time LD stronghold of Newbury with Lab getting nearly 24% of the vote. Lab have not had more than 10% there in decades I believe (7% in 19) even during the Blair years where there was much tactical voting including by my young self in 97 voting LD in my first GE but in reality voting for a Blair govt. |
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Post by mercian on Nov 25, 2022 22:22:55 GMT
That's different to my experience in Wales. Several Welshmen were conversing in English in a pub when I walked in and they immediately switched to what I assume was Welsh (it sounded like gibberish interspersed with regular throat-clearing). When I choose to enlighten this board with fascinating anecdotes from my life I can't see the point of making anything up. Exaggeration maybe, added colour perhaps, but still true. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 26, 2022 0:18:30 GMT
mercian
Of course, I accept that, stripped of exaggeration and added colour, there is truth in your anecdote. Indeed, I wholly believe you when you say that you once went into a Welsh pub.
Still, it seems a bit unfair of LBC to use a picture of you (wondering how these folk could tell you were English) to illustrate their story -
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Post by mercian on Nov 26, 2022 1:35:08 GMT
oldnatoldnatVery good! š¤£ I do think it's a bit weird of the Qataris or FIFA or whoever to ban these fans. What is now Qatar was never threatened by the Crusaders and it was nearly a thousand years ago. It would be like us objecting to Mongolian supporters coming here dressed as Genghis Khan's warriors. It'd just be a laugh. -------------------------- On another note, and more in keeping with the site's aim, I see that Mr Farage is hinting that he might take a more active part in Reform UK (which he owns). If so, that's even more bad news for the Tories, particularly as he had Brexit Party not stand in many seats in 2019 if the Tory candidate was a Leave supporter. I think that next time Reform UK would mainly campaign on immigration and that would be particularly effective in so-called Red Wall seats some of which overlap with areas where there have been child-grooming scandals involving recent immigrants or their descendants. So the Tories will be under threat from three directions (in England particularly) - an almost indistinguishable Labour Party for those people who just want a change, LibDems in some places, and Reform UK from the right. Reform are very unlikely to win any seats, but they could affect the result in quite a few seats. If Farage does come back I think they'll take votes from Labour too especially in seats where they didn't stand last time. If Farage's hints have reached a wide audience the next polls could be very interesting. If he commits, I can see Reform UK getting 10%+.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 5:36:47 GMT
It's based on the current boundaries. On that basis our old Newcastle under Lyme constituency reverts to Labour by a substantial margin, but our 'new' constituency remains Tory but with a much reduced margin. However if our ward moves into NuL as the Boundary Commission suggests, the Labour majority will be even higher. Quite how the Stone constituency will make out under the changes is more difficult to predict as it will have altered substantially. I looked at my constituency of Wantage and it was a Tory hold but only because of split opposition with the incumbent Tory getting 33% and with Lab and the LDs on around 30% each. Iād like to think that come the election voting will be a bit more tactical than that. It shows the Tories holding one time LD stronghold of Newbury with Lab getting nearly 24% of the vote. Lab have not had more than 10% there in decades I believe (7% in 19) even during the Blair years where there was much tactical voting including by my young self in 97 voting LD in my first GE but in reality voting for a Blair govt. I suspect with demographic change and the young overwhelmingly voting Labour, seats like Newbury may get Labour votes in the 20s despite tactical voting. At the same time, seats like Esher may be going LD and Southport and the Bournemouth ones Lab so it's not all bad. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 26, 2022 6:53:44 GMT
mercian If you read my post on this they did attempt remedial work, much of what you suggested is totally impractical in a flat and sticking tar on the exterior walls would almost certainly breach tenancy conditions. As you don't like " lengthy debates" I'll keep it brief. Stop being a dick. Ah, but dickism, defined as a deliberate attempt to wind up the left wing demons that haunt his troubled world, is essentially the gaiety that mercian adds to the UKPR nation. As I've said before if mercian didn't exist, rather like my old good friend Texas Turkey, we'd have to invent him. That said, I'm not sure what warped mind ever invented the Warne Syndicate. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 26, 2022 7:02:27 GMT
I wonder whether the pollsters whose methodology more predicts a General Election result rather than just captures current voting intention, like Opinium for example, will start to factor in the voter suppressant impact of the new ID proof requirements?
This may be difficult to do scientifically, but I'm presuming that Opinium currently include demographic based differential turnout in their VI figures and wouldn't part of that weighting now, sadly, have to include this new element that is very likely to reduce turnout in younger age groups of the electorate?
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Post by moby on Nov 26, 2022 7:07:43 GMT
Also Switzerland has no less than three official languages: French, German, and Italian. Some Swiss speak a fourth, Romansh. I was told a long time ago, that if two German-speaking Swiss were conversing and a French-speaking Swiss joined them, they would immediately switch to French out of respect for the newcomer. That's different to my experience in Wales. Several Welshmen were conversing in English in a pub when I walked in and they immediately switched to what I assume was Welsh (it sounded like gibberish interspersed with regular throat-clearing). This is probably what they were saying butty:- Pwy yw'r dick bach trahaus hwn mae'n edrych ar goll |
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Post by hireton on Nov 26, 2022 8:24:34 GMT
Perhaps a dawn of realisation in DUP minds about the benefits of the NI Protocol:
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 8:48:20 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 26, 2022 8:51:58 GMT
This morning's news talking about the fire service being riddled with abusive behaviour between officers. Coming on the heels of something similar in the police, which of course spills over into how those people behave with civilians.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 8:52:07 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 9:01:44 GMT
"UK secures Ā£1.84 billion investment for ESA programmes with support for Earth Observation sector" ..it's Friday, so lets get excited by government press releases! ESA has elaborate "geo-return" rules for its programmes so although it's complicated it is very likely that the Ā£1.84bn will get spent in the UK. For the optional programmes the geo-return rules can make it difficult assembling a suitable consortium to deliver, because they need to find packages of work of the right values that can be sourced in the various countries that have contributed. Thank you for posting. I get excited about UK investment every day of the week but Space Industry is not an area that I follow. As well as "geo-return" approach then do you have any information or links to highlight the 'crowding-in' factor and broader multiplier effects of what is a growth industry, with probably a large amount of geographic mobility (ie doesn't need to be in UK so HMG have to make UK an 'enabling environment' and offer incentives to that industry) and has some geo-strategic value as well. Some data on the industry (that simply shows it is bigger than the historic UK HMG investment): Size and Health of the UK Space Industry 2021 www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-size-and-health-of-the-uk-space-industry-2021/size-and-health-of-the-uk-space-industry-2021Innovate UK link - unclear if that is additional and separate programmes (please expand on the info if you can) ktn-uk.org/programme/space-satellite-applications-landscape-map/European investment can't match US or China but that doesn't mean we should just ignore the opportunities of developing a Space Industry in Europe. ESA is an example of how UK left the EU but most certainly did not leave Europe. UK still has influence in many sectors within Europe and globally - despite the 'Guardian'/etc Project Fear nonsense about Brexit meaning UK would be shut out of Europe/World and loose influence. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 26, 2022 9:15:03 GMT
ISW doesnt have much exciting to report about the war in Ukraine, which seems to be fairly static at the moment in terms of troop positions. Within Russi concern continues following publicity about bad conditions, lack of food and equipment, for their troops, especially conscripts. It seems Russia has been circlating a pmphlet to its troops saying it needs to conscriptt 5,000,000 troops to win this war. ISW suggest that currently Russia has spent an additional 1/4 of its normal annual budget on the war, and that such a large mobilisation or equipping of troops would be impossible. Local authorities have been required to pay conscripts expenses, and therefore have financial problems too.
There is a peculiar video on twitter purporting to be from a drone dropping a grenade into a russian dugout. The dugout contains men who appear to by lying down sleeping, and the grenade lands in one corner. The nearest men react a little and one seems to crawl away more as if disturbed from sleep than injured.
The captioning argues that the men are either drugged insensible or suffering from hypothermia so they dont react. Or obviously it could be a fake. Hard to know if its real and really shows Russian soldiers wholly incapable.
Radio had news that Russia is now removing nuclear warheads from cruise missiles so it can fire conventional armaments at Ukraine. ISW keep saying they must be running low.
UK general interviewed on R4 argued that Russia has already lost the war, they just dont accept it yet. However, Ukraine is still hamstrung because the west refuses to supply longer range missiles which could be used against russian military based further back from the front, but also would have the range to strike targets within russia. A while back there was an argument that the deterioraing weather has caused a slow down in the war, but Ukraine is likely to become more active once mud turns to ice. We await events. Presumably the power cuts are intended to disrupt Ukrainian preparations for another campaign.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 26, 2022 9:18:29 GMT
ESA is an example of how UK left the EU but most certainly did not leave Europe. No indeed. We are still busily buying from them, its just they arent buying stuff from us! |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 9:22:03 GMT
That's different to my experience in Wales. Several Welshmen were conversing in English in a pub when I walked in and they immediately switched to what I assume was Welsh (it sounded like gibberish interspersed with regular throat-clearing). I went into a Welsh pub once when I had a cold. I sneezed, coughed then cleared my throat. The barman nodded and proceeded to serve me a pint of bitter, glass of red wine and a bag of ready salted crisps.  Using the only Welsh I knew I said ' tidy' (translated as 'thanks') but got some very harsh looks. Only later did I realise 'tidy' is Southern.Welsh not Northern.Welsh and that their Northerners don't like their Southerners (although that is something they probably copied from the English)  |
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Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 26, 2022 9:56:16 GMT
ššš
Wordle 525 2/6
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 10:06:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 10:08:09 GMT
Should such screening be banned? Not a question for me really. You need to ask a person with Down Syndrome-like Heidi Crowter. Or a parent of a child with Down -like Sally Phillips perhaps :- www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhmIeSxXcxEI can only say that I don't like the idea of UK becoming like Iceland :- www.cbsnews.com/news/down-syndrome-iceland/Even the Nazis didn't target people with Down Syndrome- "It was not one of the hereditary illnesses listed in the compulsory sterilization law of July 1933. I suspect it may have depended on their ability to do useful labor. The Nazis generally targeted people with disabilities that were unable to do productive work." " One factor influencing this may have been that the Nazis only killed disabled people who were institutionalized, and many people with Down Syndrome do not require institutionalization." * *Richard Weikart, -" From Darwin to Hitler: Evolutionary Ethics, Eugenics, and Racism in Germany", EDIT-On checking, I think Weikart is an unreliable source on this matter. This references seems more sound :- www.hmd.org.uk/learn-about-the-holocaust-and-genocides/nazi-persecution/disabled-people/ |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 26, 2022 10:10:03 GMT
Hard hitting from tory Minister Andrew Mitchell
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2022 10:15:17 GMT
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Post by johntel on Nov 26, 2022 10:44:03 GMT
Hard hitting from tory Minister Andrew Mitchell I suspect that Andrew Mitchell would feel more at home in a Starmer cabinet than the current Tory one. Similarly a number of Tory MPs would be more at home in the current Labour Party. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 10:48:01 GMT
For me she is a clear sign that the Conservative Parliamentary Party is headed for a long period of opposition. Young, fiesty, moving up ,Red Wall . Giving up. |
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