Danny
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Posts: 10,549
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Post by Danny on Nov 25, 2022 10:15:26 GMT
We want to retain some of the best global talent in UK but overall: "Of all migrants granted settlement in 2021, (only) 18% initially came to the UK on a study visa"
(context added as that % is low IMO) I'd say 1/5 of immigrants coming to the UK doing so by buying a study visa is rather a lot! There's plenty of people coming to do school level qualifications or colleges for strange subjects. Government did already have a crackdown on the totally spurious ones a few years ago. But if you plan to get an education somewhere anyway, why not get free Uk citizenship thrown in?
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 10:19:16 GMT
Scottish polling. Ipsos will update their biannual Scottish Political Monitor soon but just FWIW here is May'22 (changes v Nov'21) p4: What do you see as the most important issue/issues facing Scotland today?Inflation/rising cost of living: 30% (+27) Healthcare/NHS/hospitals: 27% (-11) Education/schools: 24% (-2) Economy/economic situation: 22% (+1) Scottish independence/devolution: 17% (-10).. Indeed-which is why James Forsyth writes in today's Times :- "The Scottish National Party wants a fight, but Rishi Sunak won’t give them one. Nicola Sturgeon badly needs a constant war with “Tory Westminster,” thereby asking Scots to choose their side: pro-independence or pro-Tory? But Downing Street is determined not to take the bait. This strategy is driven by Scottish public opinion. A poll last year found that almost three quarters want Edinburgh and London to co-operate better. Boris Johnson internalised this argument. He shifted from saying devolution had been a “disaster north of the border” to emphasising his desire to work with Nicola Sturgeon. But, as one veteran of his No 10 recalls, getting him to stick with this strategy required regularly reassuring him that it was infuriating Sturgeon and the Nats. Under Liz Truss, the government took a dramatically different approach. During the leadership campaign she derided the first minister as an “attention seeker” and said “the best thing to do with Nicola Sturgeon is ignore her”. As prime minister, Truss stuck to this: she never once, in her 44 days in office, had a formal conversation with Sturgeon. This, had it continued, would have played right into Sturgeon’s hands. She would have argued that Downing Street’s intransigence provide devolution could never work: independence was the only option. But if the mood music from down south is emollient, if Whitehall is insisting it wants to work with Holyrood and not against it, Sturgeon will struggle to make her grievance at being disrespected look plausible. Sunak made a point of speaking to Sturgeon on his first day in the job and he argues that the two governments must work together at every opportunity, as Scottish voters want them to. Sunak’s approach is strategic but also sits easily with his character: he will always opt for co-operation over confrontation if he can." I expect Sir Keir will also avoid a "fight" and 'play nice' with Scotland, Wales and NI. Sturgeon will then look like Veronica Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate factory and those are not fanatical Arch-SNATS will notice the change in Westminster approach 2c more on somewhere that is not my polity. If SNP row back on their desire to make GE'24 "a defacto referendum on Independence" then the Arch-SNATS might look to Alba (or SGP) We're very used to seeing a 'split vote' on the Unionist side but perhaps the tables will turn. Sturgeon has boxed SNP into becoming a 'single issue' party and whilst that has worked very well in the past, and demographics are in her favour, it will likely ebb and flow and the politics of division do need 'someone to hate' being in PM/HMG in Westminster I'm about to head out but IIRC then any Scottish opinion polling that asks a non-binary question, or mentions timing, shows a range of opinion for 'Indy NOW' through 'maybe-later' to 'NO never' with the 'marginal voters' being in the 'maybe-later' camp. Alba will likely take up the mantle of 'Indy NOW' and SNP can't allow the Indy vote to split. SLAB have the best chance of snaffling up the 'maybe-later' by asking Scots to vote for LAB with Sir Keir promising loads of 'Green Prosperity Plan' funding to Scotland (direct and via 'crowding in'): Scottish jobs for Scottish workers; etc. LAB is not refusing Indy, but now is not the time for IndyRef2 (he can add that it will take at least 1st term to clean up the mess he is inheriting before having the time to look at such a divisive constitutional issue and instead give the devolved nations more rope on stuff like tax+spend powers) However, BNAT LAB, then need to 'lock the door' on Indy whilst the Scottish horse has calmed down (ie when Scots are more willing to be part of UK or at least not risk a Hard and rushed Scexit). Come mid 2030s then Indy is going to look 'economically viable' (based on various assumptions about huge increase in demand for Green Energy and carbon -ve solutions). I've mentioned how and even when Sir Keir can do that but I don't have a crystal ball to see if he is as smart a BNAT as I think he is - so TBC (late in LAB's 1st term or early into their 2nd term is when a shrewd BNAT should lead the Indy horse into the field and put a bullet through it's head) Scotland's Future, Starmer's choice
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 25, 2022 10:20:11 GMT
On the question of independence, I agree with the SNP's stance, and if there was a communist party in Scotland, it would support the bourgeois government in this. My agreement is from Stalin's point that he made in 1925 (the context was Yugoslavia): "Thus, the right to secede must be provided for those nationalities that may wish to secede, and the right to autonomy must be provided for those nationalities that may prefer to remain within the framework of the Yugoslav state.
To avoid misunderstanding, I must say that the right to secede must not be understood as an obligation, as a duty to secede. A nation may take advantage of this right and secede, but it may also forgo the right, and if it does not wish to exercise it, that is its business and we cannot but reckon with the fact."I'm not sure Stalin was all that keen on the various minorities in the USSR trying to secede.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 25, 2022 10:24:50 GMT
On the question of independence, I agree with the SNP's stance, and if there was a communist party in Scotland, it would support the bourgeois government in this. My agreement is from Stalin's point that he made in 1925 (the context was Yugoslavia): "Thus, the right to secede must be provided for those nationalities that may wish to secede, and the right to autonomy must be provided for those nationalities that may prefer to remain within the framework of the Yugoslav state.
To avoid misunderstanding, I must say that the right to secede must not be understood as an obligation, as a duty to secede. A nation may take advantage of this right and secede, but it may also forgo the right, and if it does not wish to exercise it, that is its business and we cannot but reckon with the fact."I'm not sure Stalin was all that keen on the various minorities in the USSR trying to secede. He was so keen on trying to stamp out the Ukrainian identity that he attempted to starve them to death.
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Post by hireton on Nov 25, 2022 10:30:00 GMT
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 25, 2022 10:45:16 GMT
Steve helpfully quoted the GFA clause on a border poll a few posts back.
It took decades of armed struggle to reach that degree of concession to nationalist sentiment.
You might hope that an enlightened government would learn from that and seek a pre-emptive accommodation of nationalist sentiment in Scotland, rather than squaring up for a fight.
How about an agreement with Scotland that includes:
“if at any time it appears likely to him or her that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Scotland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and become an independent state, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling an independence referendum."
That could be accompanied by statements that, in practice, evidence of a sustained period of opinion polling showing a significant lead for independence would be accepted as the referendum trigger.
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steve
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Posts: 12,748
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 10:50:37 GMT
grahamAround 35% of Irish people can understand some Gaelic but less than 2% use it as their first language . But they don't seem to have a problem with Dáil Éireann or Seanad Éireann or the Oireachtas when referring to their parliament or Teachta Dála when referring to its members or the Taoiseach when referring to their head of government. As an English and Spanish speaker I wouldn't have a problem with referring to the Welsh assembly as the Senedd I really don't see the issue.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 25, 2022 10:58:02 GMT
Milliwn o siaradwyr yn erbyn 2050!
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Nov 25, 2022 11:10:11 GMT
"The massive disappointment was to discover that [the £840-a-roll gold wallpaper] had started to peel off of its own accord... Hells bells. I'd have gone back to the store and demanded a refund under the Sale of Goods Act, or Trades Descriptions Act, or both. Just goes to show there are cowboys at all levels of society.
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Post by laszlo4new on Nov 25, 2022 11:19:21 GMT
Just how complex the world is (even if it is underreported in the newspapers...). Kharkiv's mayor was fined by about £80 for breaching the state language act: the very much Ukrainian mayor dared to address the population of the city in Russian... (When I've been in Karmic in 2002, practically everybody conversed in Russian in bars, restaurants, and on local TV). I read the other day that Kharkiv was Ukrainian speaking until the terror of the 1930s. Language does not matter in any case. Zhelensky's first language is Russian and I noted that Ukrainian troops and civilians greeting each other in Kherson were speaking Russian. By the 1920s Ireland was already almost exclusively English speaking. Didn't dampen the distinct Irish culture and passion for self government. My comment wasn't about the war - just the complexities. In Ukraine it is illegal to use any other language than Ukrainian in public offices (it was enacted in 2018), and on TV. Until then in localities Russian, Polish, Hungarian and Yiddish were allowed (the Roma was not). And of course, the Hungarian government plays the card - in the beginning of the war it demanded self-governance (not independence) for Carpathian Ukraine (Hungarian population is quite big there), and this week the Hungarian ambassador was called in by the Ukrainian Foreign Office (and also the Hungarian ambassador by the Romanian Foreign Office) because Orbán turned up to.watch a match wearing a Great Hungary (prior to (1918) scarf.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 25, 2022 11:21:10 GMT
ladyvalerie Because mould is a common problem which can be fixed, and a responsible parent would have done so or moved away. A common problem that I suspect many people have no idea can be life-threatening, and that many people in cheaper rented accommodation are used to having in some degree as just a fact of life. Even if the family in this awful situation realised that it can be acutely dangerous to a vulnerable person, *and* realised their child for whatever reason was vulnerable to it, you then assume they had the economic means to move, basically the availability of somewhere to move to that was affordable, practical to their needs, viable for their employment, viable for any family-provided childcare and so on, *and* likely to have less mould than their current place. As for your earlier assertion you'd resolve it yourself regardless of the rules, that's fine for you but how many people do you imagine have the skills and tools to even replaster a wall they've stripped back looking for incoming damp, let alone the knowledge and wherewithal to diagnose and treat something as complicated as a mould buildup? Likewise if the issue were simply down to the landlord being negligent, it seems unlikely that would have escaped the coroner's attention in such an unusual and inevitably high-profile case. And even if that were the case, it would just reinforce the above - if you're renting from a landlord who is providing unfit conditions that is probably your expectation of your affordable alternatives too. But as even good landlords will tell you, mould and damp are a big problem in well-maintained homes too, because if there's no suitable outdoor space or if the tenants don't have room for or can't afford to run a tumble dryer they will inevitably dry clothes on the radiators which pumps a huge amount of moisture into the walls. (and believe me, when you have a small child, the volume of laundry you're doing increases exponentially!). And for most of the year, they're not going to ventilate that incredibly moist air, because firstly opening windows/doors would be p*ssing away the very expensive heating they're paying for, and secondly it's very hard to appreciate just how much water is involved until you see how much a condenser dryer actually traps. You like old money, so for us with a small child it's probably somewhere between several pints and a gallon each week? Just imagine spraying that much water every week onto the walls of a couple of rooms where you keep the windows shut to conserve heat, and not getting problems building up very quickly. It’s the same as Mogg’s asinine comment that the people who died in Grenfell Tower should have been “sensible” and disobeyed instructions to stay in their flats.
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Post by laszlo4new on Nov 25, 2022 11:28:27 GMT
On the question of independence, I agree with the SNP's stance, and if there was a communist party in Scotland, it would support the bourgeois government in this. My agreement is from Stalin's point that he made in 1925 (the context was Yugoslavia): "Thus, the right to secede must be provided for those nationalities that may wish to secede, and the right to autonomy must be provided for those nationalities that may prefer to remain within the framework of the Yugoslav state.
To avoid misunderstanding, I must say that the right to secede must not be understood as an obligation, as a duty to secede. A nation may take advantage of this right and secede, but it may also forgo the right, and if it does not wish to exercise it, that is its business and we cannot but reckon with the fact."I'm not sure Stalin was all that keen on the various minorities in the USSR trying to secede. He wasn't - the national debate went on and on from 1917 until the self-governance (on paper) was put in the 1936 constitution. The debate between Lenin, Trotsky (he didn't want any local rights) and Stalin was very extensive until Lenin's death. But the republics had quite a bit of autonomy (even if, of course, the party, and to a.degree trade unions, was used to maintain the central control, but it wasn't very efficient. There is plenty of evidence for that.) And, of course the 1925 quotation in my post didn't include that he explained the national independence movements (pretty well) from capitalism, and hence a communist system could handle it .).. A bit of manipulation on my side.
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 11:48:24 GMT
New Issue Specific thread: Scotland, Indy, Devolution and other consistutional issuesukpollingreport2.proboards.com/thread/56/scotland-indy-devolution-consistutional-issuesI appreciate some folks don't like the Issue Specific threads but IMO one of the main benefits of UKPR2a v UKPR is the added extras, such as the easier ways to avoid the trolls and the ability to put useful info on a specific issue on a thread that isn't clogged up with all the trolling posts or random chat.
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domjg
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Posts: 5,149
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Post by domjg on Nov 25, 2022 11:53:12 GMT
A common problem that I suspect many people have no idea can be life-threatening, and that many people in cheaper rented accommodation are used to having in some degree as just a fact of life. Even if the family in this awful situation realised that it can be acutely dangerous to a vulnerable person, *and* realised their child for whatever reason was vulnerable to it, you then assume they had the economic means to move, basically the availability of somewhere to move to that was affordable, practical to their needs, viable for their employment, viable for any family-provided childcare and so on, *and* likely to have less mould than their current place. As for your earlier assertion you'd resolve it yourself regardless of the rules, that's fine for you but how many people do you imagine have the skills and tools to even replaster a wall they've stripped back looking for incoming damp, let alone the knowledge and wherewithal to diagnose and treat something as complicated as a mould buildup? Likewise if the issue were simply down to the landlord being negligent, it seems unlikely that would have escaped the coroner's attention in such an unusual and inevitably high-profile case. And even if that were the case, it would just reinforce the above - if you're renting from a landlord who is providing unfit conditions that is probably your expectation of your affordable alternatives too. But as even good landlords will tell you, mould and damp are a big problem in well-maintained homes too, because if there's no suitable outdoor space or if the tenants don't have room for or can't afford to run a tumble dryer they will inevitably dry clothes on the radiators which pumps a huge amount of moisture into the walls. (and believe me, when you have a small child, the volume of laundry you're doing increases exponentially!). And for most of the year, they're not going to ventilate that incredibly moist air, because firstly opening windows/doors would be p*ssing away the very expensive heating they're paying for, and secondly it's very hard to appreciate just how much water is involved until you see how much a condenser dryer actually traps. You like old money, so for us with a small child it's probably somewhere between several pints and a gallon each week? Just imagine spraying that much water every week onto the walls of a couple of rooms where you keep the windows shut to conserve heat, and not getting problems building up very quickly. It’s the same as Mogg’s asinine comment that the people who died in Grenfell Tower should have been “sensible” and disobeyed instructions to stay in their flats. This is a horrific case. Apparently the parents had complained about it and been told to paint over it which they did several times. They were not told to use anti-mould paint..
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Nov 25, 2022 12:10:03 GMT
I'm not sure Stalin was all that keen on the various minorities in the USSR trying to secede. He was so keen on trying to stamp out the Ukrainian identity that he attempted to starve them to death. And he got rid of the indigenous Tartars from Crimea: In 1944, under the pretext of alleged collaboration of the Crimean Tatars with the Nazi occupation regime, the Soviet government on orders of Joseph Stalin and Lavrentiy Beria deported the Crimean Tatar people from Crimea.
I seem to remember they were put on two ships and sailed out into the Black Sea where the ships were sunk. But one village was missed, so they went in and executed everyone. That's not mentioned in the above link, so maybe I've mis-remembered.
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,149
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Post by domjg on Nov 25, 2022 12:10:11 GMT
I read the other day that Kharkiv was Ukrainian speaking until the terror of the 1930s. Language does not matter in any case. Zhelensky's first language is Russian and I noted that Ukrainian troops and civilians greeting each other in Kherson were speaking Russian. By the 1920s Ireland was already almost exclusively English speaking. Didn't dampen the distinct Irish culture and passion for self government. My comment wasn't about the war - just the complexities. In Ukraine it is illegal to use any other language than Ukrainian in public offices (it was enacted in 2018), and on TV. Until then in localities Russian, Polish, Hungarian and Yiddish were allowed (the Roma was not). And of course, the Hungarian government plays the card - in the beginning of the war it demanded self-governance (not independence) for Carpathian Ukraine (Hungarian population is quite big there), and this week the Hungarian ambassador was called in by the Ukrainian Foreign Office (and also the Hungarian ambassador by the Romanian Foreign Office) because Orbán turned up to.watch a match wearing a Great Hungary (prior to (1918) scarf. I suspect the population of Kharkiv, who amongst each other will use whichever language they like, do not much care as they have bigger problems. The fine is also a token, even in wartime, showing that this is clearly not really taken seriously. I imagine it only concerns public speeches by public officials. Within the confines of their offices they'll use whatever language is most comfortable for them. Even in Wales I understand a knowledge of Welsh is required for many public sector roles. I understand there is a huge bottom up push going on driven by people at all levels of society to use Ukrainian more than Russian in those areas where Russian was more prevalent. Orban really is a piece of work. Imagine if a German chancellor walked about wearing a scarf with a map of the Kaiserreich or even the Versailles treaty borders?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Nov 25, 2022 12:40:20 GMT
"The massive disappointment was to discover that [the £840-a-roll gold wallpaper] had started to peel off of its own accord... Hells bells. I'd have gone back to the store and demanded a refund under the Sale of Goods Act, or Trades Descriptions Act, or both. Just goes to show there are cowboys at all levels of society. I doubt it's the retailer that sold its fault, more likely the decorator who applied it either didn't prepare the wall properly or used the wrong adhesive. The Sale of Goods Act was superseded by the Consumer Rights Act in 2015.
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neilj
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Posts: 6,554
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Post by neilj on Nov 25, 2022 12:48:16 GMT
New poĺl
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Post by graham on Nov 25, 2022 12:59:28 GMT
graham Around 35% of Irish people can understand some Gaelic but less than 2% use it as their first language . But they don't seem to have a problem with Dáil Éireann or Seanad Éireann or the Oireachtas when referring to their parliament or Teachta Dála when referring to its members or the Taoiseach when referring to their head of government. As an English and Spanish speaker I wouldn't have a problem with referring to the Welsh assembly as the Senedd I really don't see the issue. That is fair enough. However, I am not aware that in the Irish Republic young people are coerced into learning Gaelic against their wishes. For many years now people of school age in Wales are required to learn Welsh - it is no longer simply presented as an option. I have no objection to the latter at all , but were I now growing up in Pembrokeshire I would bitterly resent having this imposed on me - the effect of which is often to crowd out the study of other Modern Languages such as French, German & Spanish. At school I learnt Latin, French and German and would have found it totally unacceptable to have been forced to sacrifice one of the latter simply to make room for Welsh - particularly as I lived in a 99% English speaking community. Were this in operation back in the 1960s and 1970s I would have refused to co-operate - by declining to submit any Welsh Homework etc - and would have made no effort at all regarding the assessments and examinations involved in the subject. That would have been my way of engaging in political protest.
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 13:01:43 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 25, 2022 13:07:32 GMT
Looks like the Welsh dream is over.
Don't look back in Bangor.
EDIT: I heard ewe say.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2022 13:10:22 GMT
Looks like the Welsh dream is over. Don't look back in Bangor. All the fault of the LIB DEM/tory coalition government.
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Post by graham on Nov 25, 2022 13:16:14 GMT
Looks like the Welsh dream is over. Don't look back in Bangor. Thank God for that - the last thing we want is a boost to Welsh nationalism.
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 13:30:45 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 25, 2022 13:42:58 GMT
By the 1920s Ireland was already almost exclusively English speaking. Didn't dampen the distinct Irish culture and passion for self government. Also Switzerland has no less than three official languages: French, German, and Italian. Some Swiss speak a fourth, Romansh. I was told a long time ago, that if two German-speaking Swiss were conversing and a French-speaking Swiss joined them, they would immediately switch to French out of respect for the newcomer.
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 25, 2022 13:51:52 GMT
He was so keen on trying to stamp out the Ukrainian identity that he attempted to starve them to death. And he got rid of the indigenous Tartars from Crimea: In 1944, under the pretext of alleged collaboration of the Crimean Tatars with the Nazi occupation regime, the Soviet government on orders of Joseph Stalin and Lavrentiy Beria deported the Crimean Tatar people from Crimea.
I seem to remember they were put on two ships and sailed out into the Black Sea where the ships were sunk. But one village was missed, so they went in and executed everyone. That's not mentioned in the above link, so maybe I've mis-remembered.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars says they were put on trains and boxcars, but if they were deported to Central Asia without food, it's not surprising if many starved to death.
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Post by Mark on Nov 25, 2022 13:53:07 GMT
the Green Party have really pis*d on their lentils with the activities of Just Stop Oil. A curious one that. I could point out the obvious, that the Green Party have got nothing to do with Just Stop Oil, but, we are talking about polling and the effects that various things have on polling. Yes, it is entirely concievable that some of the less well thought out actions of Just Stop Oil could put some people off environmental issues and I'm sure that has happened, at least to an extent, but what I find curious is this... While the Green Party are (no longer) a one issue party, they are primarily motivated by environmental issues. Their unlikely voting alliance is primarily based on two factions (note that I am talking about those that vote for them, not the party itself). 1. Lefties/left greens. The kind of people that it is often remarked on here could switch from Labour to Green now that Corbyn is no longer running the show. Some of which would regularly attend demos for green/anti-racism/anti-war causes. A fair chunk of student vote is in here. Highly idealistic, sometimes tending to what their detractors may label as 'purist'. Often working class or lower middle class. 2. Comfortably off soft tories, those that tend to live towards the outer suburbs in more leafy areas. Those for whom a John Major or Ken Clarke led tory party would be their natural home, but, who are also into things like conservation, some of which you can imagine being members of things like the RSPB. A group that see the Green Party as "liberals it's ok to like". I would have thought that it would be the latter that would be more put off by the likes of Just Stop Oil, but, in local by-elections (yes, I know....), the Green vote does not seem to be dented. It seems to be the red wall/left behind/former part of the unlikely Green coalition of voters that has taken the hit. Of course, there is a lot of generalising here and it could simply be churn and that Just Stop Oil has nothing to do with any of it.
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 25, 2022 13:58:12 GMT
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Nov 25, 2022 14:01:08 GMT
Hells bells. I'd have gone back to the store and demanded a refund under the Sale of Goods Act, or Trades Descriptions Act, or both. Just goes to show there are cowboys at all levels of society. I doubt it's the retailer that sold its fault, more likely the decorator who applied it either didn't prepare the wall properly or used the wrong adhesive. The Sale of Goods Act was superseded by the Consumer Rights Act in 2015. Fair enough. Then they should find Ivor Tubenbrush & Sons, or whoever did it, and sue them. How difficult is it to hang paper?
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Post by hireton on Nov 25, 2022 14:01:40 GMT
hiretonI don't think the mandate for holding a Scottish referendum should be based on the current success of the snp after all for the four decades prior to 2005 Labour were the predominant party and before that the conservative/unionist party. If secession was achieved particularly by a narrow margin say 52:48 and say Labour won the subsequent election would you be happy to see another referendum on rejoining the union straight away. I do think that Scotland deserves another chance to decide when ever it wants but I do think it's prudent that it shouldn't take place until there is at least clear indication of a significant preference, preferences in polling for Rejoining the European union now suggest a margin approaching 20% it might be politically advisable not to go down the massively divisive rout without some indicators that significantly more than half the people agree with. Yes I would just as you would have been happy to see the Brexit referendum reversed by a UK General Election result. It's called democracy.
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