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Post by hireton on Nov 25, 2022 8:14:44 GMT
steve My reply to pjw1961 whether a generational restriction on referenda on the same issue applies across the board. Should it apply to border polls in Northern Ireland? If there was a prospect of the UK being able to rejoin the EU before the end of the next decade should voters be prevented from voting on that because a "generation" had not passed? After all it was only a couple of years ago that your party considered it was perfectly constitutionally proper for the result of a UK General Election to reverse the result of a referendum held 3 years previously. I think it's important that these proposed restrictions on democracy are clear especially whether they apply across the whole of the UK or selectively to parts of it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 8:19:06 GMT
hiretonAnd I responded to you if you recall, simple answer no on the first because of the mp in question. Second it's a decision for the Scottish liberal democrats as it's a decision that should be made in Scotland.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 8:22:51 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 8:26:33 GMT
hiretonI think the border poll is different. As part of the Good Friday Agreement, an explicit provision for holding a Northern Ireland border poll was made in UK law. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll. I understand that this referendum has to take place concurrently in northern Ireland and the republic. I agree entirely with the liberal democrat failed effort to cancel the referendum conclusion, given that it was advisory and that an election mandate based on the express undertaking to reverse the decision would supersede it.
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Post by hireton on Nov 25, 2022 8:27:07 GMT
I was responding to Hireton who does indeed seem to think an SNP victory in a Holyrood automatically triggers a right to another referendum. Pleased to see you agree with me.
I suspect you were misreading what he said. The continuous series of SNP victories in Holyrood and Westminster elections (whether or not indyef2 was in their manifesto) demonstrates wide support for independence (or at the very least, the transfer of significant sovereign powers to Holyrood). Had the Supreme Court ruled that Holyrood did have the right to legislate for indy referendums, then it would be theoretically possible for parties in favour of independence, if they were voted into power, to run such referendums every 4 years (assuming that the parties were daft enough to do so, and the electorate foolish enough to mandate that).
Westminster has the power to run referendums on EU membership every week - but it ain't going to happen. hireton made no such suggestion about an empowered Holyrood, so you are just tilting at windmills.
On many issues, I enjoy your intelligent contributions, but occasionally you drift off into Don Quixote territory.Indeed. However, there does seem to be a view amongst some that the right of voters to vote on certain issues and to expect to have that vote respected if they elect a government on that mandate in certain parts of the UK can and should be be restricted by means other than political realities. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 8:30:33 GMT
Realistically speaking given the current nationalist exceptionalist nonsense coming from Starmer I can't see any realistic possibility of another referendum before around the end of this decade , reversing much of the economic and social damage can and I anticipate will be achieved earlier than that given reality is likely to intervene.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 8:41:38 GMT
hiretonI don't think the mandate for holding a Scottish referendum should be based on the current success of the snp after all for the four decades prior to 2005 Labour were the predominant party and before that the conservative/unionist party. If secession was achieved particularly by a narrow margin say 52:48 and say Labour won the subsequent election would you be happy to see another referendum on rejoining the union straight away. I do think that Scotland deserves another chance to decide when ever it wants but I do think it's prudent that it shouldn't take place until there is at least clear indication of a significant preference, preferences in polling for Rejoining the European union now suggest a margin approaching 20% it might be politically advisable not to go down the massively divisive rout without some indicators that significantly more than half the people agree with.
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Post by barbara on Nov 25, 2022 8:42:23 GMT
ladyvalerie Because mould is a common problem which can be fixed, and a responsible parent would have done so or moved away. You really do need to read up on this specific case if you think the parents didn't do everything they could to get rid of the mould. Really Mercian, you should think twice about pronouncing on a specific situation when you haven't read up the details. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 25, 2022 9:03:58 GMT
I can understand the frustration of Scottish Nationalists with their current political predicament, and the likelihood of it pertaining for some time, but frustrated minority interests in an essentially majoritarian democracy are inevitable. Persuasion that those interests are really those of the majority is what democratic debate is about. You have to win the argument, not try to bend the constitution or legality to your will.
Why the SNP or the the independence movement in general are surprised that a UK Government and legislature are determined to preserve the nation state they govern is curious. There seems nothing undemocratic about that determination too and they are serving the interests of the people who elected them. They granted a referendum in 2014 where independence was rejected by a majority of the Scottish electorate. I can't quite see why an SNP majority, only recently obtained in terms of an overall one in the devolved assembly in Scotland, represents an irresistible case for another referendum. That seems a self serving interpretation of what the Scottish people are saying when they elect the SNP to run the devolved assembly. They are obviously the Scottish voters preferred party to run the devolved government, but maybe for a variety of reasons that I suspect have nothing much to do with an enthusiasm for independence. The unpopularity of the two main UK political parties being one of them. Both have been poorly led in Scotland for decades.
And isn't the current stasis in opinion in the polls, showing no momentum for the independence cause, an encouragement/justification for the UK government to carry on resisting calls for another referendum so soon after the last one?
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 25, 2022 9:07:24 GMT
steve
The problem of simultaneous posting. We've both clogged up the thread saying essentially the same thing!!
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 9:08:20 GMT
I do fear that there's something of a desire here to find disagreement on the broad point of holding another referendum with those of us who are entirely sanguine about leaving the decision on another referendum timing and organising on secession to Scotland without Westminster government consent.
Because in the event of such a referendum , given the opportunity we'd probably vote to remain in the union.
That appears to also be the opinion of around half those currently likely to have a mandate , so it shouldn't be regarded as simply a South of the border conceit.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 25, 2022 9:13:37 GMT
The whole point of a referendum is it is supposed to settle a controversial issue through a single issue vote. Having a referendum on the same issue once every parliament suggests you are settling nothing, just refusing to accept a result you don't like. So yes, I suspect if a border poll were held in Northern Ireland that resulted in a decision to stay in the union the political reality would be that another could not be held for another 15 or 20 years whatever the rules might theoretically say, and I detect absolutely no enthusiasm from any party for another EU referendum any time soon after the trauma of the last one (moves to tweak the relationship without a referendum are much more likely). I am pretty certain that the SNP leadership know this too. Unless the vote was ridiculously one sided, the next vote in Northern Ireland would be in seven years. To paraphrase McMillan, 'Demographics dear boy, demographics'. However, how we get the first go at a vote is unclear at present, but to be honest from a southern perspective the north is looking increasingly unstable and close to an implosion of some sort, that could lead to a border poll. I'm not comparing the two countries, just pointing out that there are very different factors and agreements in play regarding the constitutional question. "Unless the vote was ridiculously one sided, the next vote in Northern Ireland would be in seven years" - there is no guarantee of that at all. The GFA says the next border poll cannot happen before 7 years have passed (so a prohibition rather than a right). The decision to hold a border poll rests entirely with the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and is based on the statement "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland" - a statement that the NI Office has declined to be specific about what the circumstances would be. The idea that if the Unionist side had managed to win a vote (lets say 52-48) they would be happy to acquiesce to another poll just 7 years later seems fanciful to me. They would be lobbying the SoSNI to put it off until a clearer indication that the result would be different (which they would prefer to be never). Eventually this argument would wear thin - hence my 15 to 20 year suggestion. I think those who favour Irish reunification know this, hence the lack of any urgent pressure to hold a border poll. They - and the Republic's government - would prefer to wait until it is a nailed on certainty they would win, so there is only one referendum held under the GFA. Repeated polls would be a political disaster for the new unified state, making it look like the unionists had been bullied into submission rather than it being the clearly expressed will of the population. And, just for clarity, I support a united Ireland and hope it happens within my lifetime. However, the politics of referendums are such that over-use is hugely controversial and not a viable option. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2022 9:16:47 GMT
ladyvalerie Because mould is a common problem which can be fixed, and a responsible parent would have done so or moved away. You do manage to look like a heartless fucker at times Pete. Over simplifying issues is often a very poor idea, in my view. |
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Post by robbiealive on Nov 25, 2022 9:22:08 GMT
I well remember UKPR1 back in 2014. Inearly lost the will to live 💤💤💤 According to Hireton, not actively campaigning for the law to be changed to bring about another referendum on Scottish independence means I’m a British Nationalist. It isn’t a priority for me. I’m more concerned about women’s rights Respect my sex.
It may well be that you are wholly unconcerned whether Scotland remains part of the UK Union or not. In that case, no one would be describing you as a "British Nationalist" since you wouldn't be bothered about the continuity of the British/UK state.What a bizarre post. A combination of witless sarcasm ( There is a feature on your screen called a "scroll bar". You can use it to go past comments that don't interest you. Your disinterest [sic] etc. . . ps you would expect a school teacher to know the difference between uninterest and disinterest?) and the sour criticism that a poster is over-concerned with their own priorities, ones which are almost never discussed on a male-dominated site. And this criticism from a obsessive who has saturated, no flooded, no innundated this and the previous forum with literally tens of thousands! of effing posts about Scottish independence, allied to an incessant criticisim of the other Scottish policital parties & a hyper-sensitivity to the slightest criticism of his own party. Should one laugh or laugh or weep. I'll go for the former. (As Burns wrote in Ode to A Louse, "O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us!") We know that Scottish nationalists are frustrated that they cannot persuade a majority of their fellow Scots to support independence but do they have to be so unpleasant about it? Is it time for a separate thread on Scottish independence, unless those posts relate to specific polling? The subject has exhausted itself & its readers. (One summary. 1. Brexit makes a 2nd ref on independence necessary. 2. There is currently no majority for independence. 3. It is probably not a good idea to have a ref every 4 or 5 years.) This forum gets more like UKPolling1 day-by-day. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 9:24:29 GMT
Scottish polling. Ipsos will update their biannual Scottish Political Monitor soon but just FWIW here is May'22 (changes v Nov'21) p4: What do you see as the most important issue/issues facing Scotland today?Inflation/rising cost of living: 30% (+27) Healthcare/NHS/hospitals: 27% (-11) Education/schools: 24% (-2) Economy/economic situation: 22% (+1)
Scottish independence/devolution: 17% (-10).. We'll need to check the fieldwork dates closely but I'll stick my neck out and 'predict' Scottish independence/devolution % will rise post SC decision (exactly as SNP will have hoped it would). %s for 'other' issues will then drop (exactly as SNP will have hoped it would). www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-05/ipsos-scottish-political-monitor-may-2022-charts.pdfGoing back further then Ipsos polling just ahead of Holyrood'21. The SC decision requiring an update to 'what next' polling (see p3) www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-05/scottish-pre-election-poll-referendum-charts-may-21.pdfSNP have 2yrs until GE'24 and FWIU are kicking any decision to conf but they might have messed up their timing a bit IMO. Some temporary spike in Indy as both an important issue and for 'Yes' (on basis people don't like being told what to do) but 2yrs is a long way away... |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 25, 2022 9:27:15 GMT
An alternative approach might be; 1) Accept that students are not the same as economic migrants and so remove them from the immigration figures unless they stay of after their education. Except quite a lot of students really do use it as a route to permanent residence in the Uk and then citizenship. It really is a way people get into the UK. Like simply being very rich, it is a way to buy your kids a place in the Uk but on the installment plan. If you stop issuing visas to study at cheaper and less prestigious institutions, I guess it will at least eliminate those with least money or least intelligence. Either of which seem to be acceptable grounds to be granted citizenship. The whole point of a referendum is it is supposed to settle a controversial issue through a single issue vote. Really? Some countries have formal arrangemenets where citizens can put an issue to the nation if they get sufficient support, and then if carried it is binding upon government to enact. Some countries have many such votes every year. For the SNP being denied a referendum is a mechanism to drum up support year on year. A no vote is politically as useful as a yes vote. Indeed, if Scotland left the Uk it might spell the end of the SNP, but certainly an opposition party with a real chance of winning elections would come into existence in the new independent Scotland. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 25, 2022 9:27:24 GMT
steve My reply to pjw1961 whether a generational restriction on referenda on the same issue applies across the board. Should it apply to border polls in Northern Ireland? If there was a prospect of the UK being able to rejoin the EU before the end of the next decade should voters be prevented from voting on that because a "generation" had not passed? After all it was only a couple of years ago that your party considered it was perfectly constitutionally proper for the result of a UK General Election to reverse the result of a referendum held 3 years previously. I think it's important that these proposed restrictions on democracy are clear especially whether they apply across the whole of the UK or selectively to parts of it. I disagree with Steve on this. I think there is no realistic chance of any referendum on rejoining the EU for decades and certainly not by 2034 (there was a 41 year gap between 1975 and 2016). The wounds it opened have not yet healed. Moving closer to the EU (which I think will happen) will have to be done by parliament without referendums. (P.s. I have been wondering whether to use 'referendums' or 'referenda' as the plural. I discover that the formidable Betty Boothroyd ruled that it is "a matter of taste", which is good enough for me!) news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/news/105751.stm |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 25, 2022 9:35:35 GMT
ladyvalerie Because mould is a common problem which can be fixed, and a responsible parent would have done so or moved away. You do manage to look like a heartless fucker at times Pete. Over simplifying issues is often a very poor idea, in my view. I don't think he is, Crofty, but he does sometimes betray an insouciance to the predicament of others. Of course, amongst our generation, as Barbara has said, he is by no means alone in that. I was listening to one of those typically risible BBC vox pops the other day. It involved talking to random people about their views on the cost of living. For reasons best known to the programme's editors they descended upon what looked to be a day club for the elderly. One of the women "interviewed", who looked in her early 80s commented that "we'll cope, we did in the war, you know." A number of things struck me about her comment, not least that she can't possibly have had experience of wartime living conditions and was basing her comment on nostalgia tinted received wisdom. In other words, she really didn't have a clue what she was on about. She was also demonstrating a sort of thinly veiled disdain for those who were "moaning". Fecklessness or loss of backbone compared to her. Deprivation was the fault of the poor and needy. Show a bit of stuff upper lip like me was the implication. A stiff upper lip born of affluence, I suspect, that allowed her to pompously comment on the misfortunes of others without any likelihood of experiencing what they were suffering. There was something rather cruel and heartless in what she said although I suspect she would have been mortified by the accusation. Kind to her grandchildren, raised money for charity by selling cakes at the church fete.... |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 25, 2022 9:39:49 GMT
ladyvalerieBecause mould is a common problem which can be fixed, and a responsible parent would have done so or moved away. But they cannot move away because housing is too expensive. Which was a deliberate policy choice mainly by successive conservative governments. If we get rid of the immigrants, it should free up more sub standard mouldy accommodation for brits to live in! Chap on the radio suggesting there are about 3 million sub standard and therefore similarly dangerous homes in the UK. Pick the strain of mould you fancy. Sure fix these homes, and double the rents. How does that help the poor? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 25, 2022 9:42:30 GMT
mercianThe parents concerned first reported the issue to their housing association in 2017 they were advised to paint over the mould , which they did several times. It was the landlord's responsibility to maintain the property in good order, that's what the tenants are paying for. I doubt that many here have experienced the housing issues facing the poor now and the parlous state of social housing after 7 years of Tory neglect. With a party whose primary concern for private rental is to maximise the rental they can personally achieve it's equally unlikely that anything meaningful will be achieved in improved standards in private rentals. It doesn't have to be that way. We rent out property in the North West of England ( we've got a nice three bedroom semi with ensuite newly decorated at £795 pcm coming up in January if anyone's interested) and imposing maintenance minimum standards isn't an additional cost to those of us who already do it.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2022 9:47:04 GMT
This forum gets more like UKPolling1 day-by-day. It does. Go here for quiet , and data:- pollingreport.uk/ |
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Post by laszlo4new on Nov 25, 2022 9:51:51 GMT
On the question of independence, I agree with the SNP's stance, and if there was a communist party in Scotland, it would support the bourgeois government in this.
My agreement is from Stalin's point that he made in 1925 (the context was Yugoslavia):
"Thus, the right to secede must be provided for those nationalities that may wish to secede, and the right to autonomy must be provided for those nationalities that may prefer to remain within the framework of the Yugoslav state.
To avoid misunderstanding, I must say that the right to secede must not be understood as an obligation, as a duty to secede. A nation may take advantage of this right and secede, but it may also forgo the right, and if it does not wish to exercise it, that is its business and we cannot but reckon with the fact."
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2022 9:52:38 GMT
Scottish polling. Ipsos will update their biannual Scottish Political Monitor soon but just FWIW here is May'22 (changes v Nov'21) p4: What do you see as the most important issue/issues facing Scotland today?Inflation/rising cost of living: 30% (+27) Healthcare/NHS/hospitals: 27% (-11) Education/schools: 24% (-2) Economy/economic situation: 22% (+1)
Scottish independence/devolution: 17% (-10).. Indeed-which is why James Forsyth writes in today's Times :- "The Scottish National Party wants a fight, but Rishi Sunak won’t give them one. Nicola Sturgeon badly needs a constant war with “Tory Westminster,” thereby asking Scots to choose their side: pro-independence or pro-Tory? But Downing Street is determined not to take the bait. This strategy is driven by Scottish public opinion. A poll last year found that almost three quarters want Edinburgh and London to co-operate better. Boris Johnson internalised this argument. He shifted from saying devolution had been a “disaster north of the border” to emphasising his desire to work with Nicola Sturgeon. But, as one veteran of his No 10 recalls, getting him to stick with this strategy required regularly reassuring him that it was infuriating Sturgeon and the Nats. Under Liz Truss, the government took a dramatically different approach. During the leadership campaign she derided the first minister as an “attention seeker” and said “the best thing to do with Nicola Sturgeon is ignore her”. As prime minister, Truss stuck to this: she never once, in her 44 days in office, had a formal conversation with Sturgeon. This, had it continued, would have played right into Sturgeon’s hands. She would have argued that Downing Street’s intransigence provide devolution could never work: independence was the only option. But if the mood music from down south is emollient, if Whitehall is insisting it wants to work with Holyrood and not against it, Sturgeon will struggle to make her grievance at being disrespected look plausible. Sunak made a point of speaking to Sturgeon on his first day in the job and he argues that the two governments must work together at every opportunity, as Scottish voters want them to. Sunak’s approach is strategic but also sits easily with his character: he will always opt for co-operation over confrontation if he can." |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2022 9:53:31 GMT
robbiealiveWhilst I agree with you about “the Scottish question” I think that, as with the trevs, the solution lies with the rest of us. Loads of people claim to be fed up with certain issues or posters but then fall over themselves to respond to every post these supposed villains write. I have genuinely never read a trev post but am guilty of entering discussions about Scottish independence. I am determined not to do so again (what the fuck difference do any of our words on here make anyway?!) and I recommend that simple decision to others.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 25, 2022 9:54:27 GMT
I well remember UKPR1 back in 2014. Inearly lost the will to live 💤💤💤 According to Hireton, not actively campaigning for the law to be changed to bring about another referendum on Scottish independence means I’m a British Nationalist. It isn’t a priority for me. I’m more concerned about women’s rights Respect my sex.
It may well be that you are wholly unconcerned whether Scotland remains part of the UK Union or not. In that case, no one would be describing you as a "British Nationalist" since you wouldn't be bothered about the continuity of the British/UK . You weren’t mentioned in my post. Tell you what. Next time, just use your “scroll bar”. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Nov 25, 2022 9:56:08 GMT
Just how complex the world is (even if it is underreported in the newspapers...). Kharkiv's mayor was fined by about £80 for breaching the state language act: the very much Ukrainian mayor dared to address the population of the city in Russian...
(When I've been in Karmic in 2002, practically everybody conversed in Russian in bars, restaurants, and on local TV).
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 25, 2022 9:58:04 GMT
Quick 2c more on 'Foreign Student'. From MOC:
"Most non-EU students leave the UK after their studies.. Home Office exit checks data show that at least 98% of non-EU students left on time for those whose visas expired in the year ending March 2020 (Home Office, 2020a, p. 1). This figure represents the minimum level of compliance with visa duration, because the departures of some people are not recorded, or are not matched against their arrival in the system (see Home Office, 2020a, p. 1)."Braverman did spot one point but totally misrepresented it: "Indian students are more than five times as likely as Chinese students to have moved onto a work visa"We want to retain some of the best global talent in UK but overall: "Of all migrants granted settlement in 2021, (only) 18% initially came to the UK on a study visa"
(context added as that % is low IMO) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/student-migration-to-the-uk/Taking a 3yr+ degree, paying 'foreign student' fees which are higher* plus living costs is a very expensive way to enter UK for anything other than a legitimate and useful (to UK and student) reason. * 'Overseas' fees can range from (an additional) £3,500 to about £18,000 per year depending on the institution, the level of your course, and the type of course. www.ukcisa.org.uk/information--advice/fees-and-money/home-or-overseas-fees-the-basics |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2022 10:11:16 GMT
Just how complex the world is (even if it is underreported in the newspapers...). Kharkiv's mayor was fined by about £80 for breaching the state language act: the very much Ukrainian mayor dared to address the population of the city in Russian... (When I've been in Karmic in 2002, practically everybody conversed in Russian in bars, restaurants, and on local TV). ...........and in other news from Kharkiv:- www.itv.com/news/2022-11-23/ukrainian-cities-lyiv-and-kharkiv-lose-power-after-missile-strikes |
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 25, 2022 10:14:48 GMT
Crossbat:
"she can't possibly have had experience of wartime living conditions and was basing her comment on nostalgia tinted received wisdom."
I agree with your general point that people tend to be too dismissive of the plight of others on the basis of very incomplete knowledge.
However, I'd just point out that, accepting your age estimate, the lady concerned would have been born around 1940 or a little before. So she could well have some memory of wartime conditions, and certainly of its aftermath of rationing, bomb sites etc.
Also, I have quite a lot of contact with older people as I'm a volunteer community minibus driver. I find it much harder to judge age in the 70-100 bracket than with younger people: there are several who looked 75-ish to me but turned out to be in their 90s. Quite encouraging, really!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 25, 2022 10:15:14 GMT
Just how complex the world is (even if it is underreported in the newspapers...). Kharkiv's mayor was fined by about £80 for breaching the state language act: the very much Ukrainian mayor dared to address the population of the city in Russian... (When I've been in Karmic in 2002, practically everybody conversed in Russian in bars, restaurants, and on local TV). I read the other day that Kharkiv was Ukrainian speaking until the terror of the 1930s. Language does not matter in any case. Zhelensky's first language is Russian and I noted that Ukrainian troops and civilians greeting each other in Kherson were speaking Russian. By the 1920s Ireland was already almost exclusively English speaking. Didn't dampen the distinct Irish culture and passion for self government. |
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