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Post by jen on Oct 3, 2022 17:54:53 GMT
John Curtice on Times Radio about a half-hour ago said that the collapse in Tory polling has been faster than after Black Wednesday (Also, Kwasi sounds a bit like Portillo to my ears) It's collapsing at the same rate as the Russian front line in Ukraine - not sure if there is a connection? Well, both the Tory party and the Russian military are largely financed by the Kremlin, so yes, there might be a connection. Perhaps sanctions are really beginning to bite...? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 18:03:02 GMT
Would it be excessively unfair of me to suggest that Keir Starmer's initial strategy was to not be Jeremy Corbyn and that brought a modest recovery in Labour's fortunes. Then he moved on to not being Boris Johnson, and that secured Labour consistent but modest poll leads. And now by the cunning plan of not being Liz Truss (with an able assist from Rachel Reeves in not being Kwasi Kwarteng) Labour are on for a landslide. Or putting it another way, Governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. I wonder if Starmer played Beergate more cannily than some of us gave him credit for? He took a big gamble with offering his resignation in advance if he was issued with a fixed penalty notice by Durham Police, thereby risking his whole political career. This allowed him to gain the moral high ground vis a vis Johnson, but also offered the voters a rare glimpse of another side of him. Prepared to take risks to prove his integrity. To be a little bit activista here, there is evidence that it gained doorstep traction. It was noticed and he banked some political capital. Capital that may be gaining interest for him now. |
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Post by johntel on Oct 3, 2022 18:06:46 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 18:18:45 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 3, 2022 18:32:10 GMT
Most recent polls in one place
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 18:50:10 GMT
Most recent polls in one place And Kantar ... err ... umm ... 4% |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 19:04:07 GMT
Well, if there is it might be bad news for Cons as an expert on the radio right now is saying that, somewhat surprisingly, Ukraine still have forward momentum, when normally you might have expected the Ruskies to fall back to better defended positions and hence slowing the advance I know sod all about war but this has all the feel of dominos collapsing. I imagine that poorly trained and injured soldiers retreating is likely to cause panic with the next line of poorly prepared, under resourced soldiers. Long may it last. The question is, how does Putin withdraw and survive? I guess he has to show it wasnt his fault, and news said another Russian commander was removed today. Had he not called up reservists, then he would just be folding and withdrawing. Is there some mileage in his having done so, and thereby proving the reservists were quite useless. So he did everything he could, but it turned out whoever was responsible for maintaining the army in readiness...utterly failed?
Having declared this territory part of Russia, it seems no one can define its borders because they keep changing. Again, does he have scope to say he accepted the pleas of local leaders to become part of Russia, but then it turned out they didnt even control the territories they claimed they did? They failed, not him? He can of course continue to say russia will never give up future attempts to recover these parts of Russia.
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Post by expatr on Oct 3, 2022 19:09:31 GMT
The polls weren't too far out for Lula - they were saying 50 or 51% with a MoE of 2% and he got 48%. The problem was they were way out on Bolsonaro, having him down in the thirties when he actually got 43%. Evidence of a 'shy fascist' effect perhaps. People unwilling to admit they were going to vote for someone of his ilk. In fact the final round of polls were even closer - Lula's median rating was precisely 48% - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election. I think your analysis of "shy fascists" or more charitably disconnected people, hard to reach and susceptible to fascism, is probably correct. In that sense exactly like Trump - especially as there is a large American evangelical-influenced church (that is the one's who don't actually worship Jesus) who are Bolsonaro's core vote. Says something about the danger of likelihood to vote filters too, I feel.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 19:10:44 GMT
Would it be excessively unfair of me to suggest that Keir Starmer's initial strategy was to not be Jeremy Corbyn and that brought a modest recovery in Labour's fortunes. Then he moved on to not being Boris Johnson, and that secured Labour consistent but modest poll leads. And now by the cunning plan of not being Liz Truss (with an able assist from Rachel Reeves in not being Kwasi Kwarteng) Labour are on for a landslide. Or putting it another way, Governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. I wonder if Starmer played Beergate more cannily than some of us gave him credit for? He took a big gamble with offering his resignation in advance if he was issued with a fixed penalty notice by Durham Police, thereby risking his whole political career. This allowed him to gain the moral high ground vis a vis Johnson, but also offered the voters a rare glimpse of another side of him. Prepared to take risks to prove his integrity. To be a little bit activista here, there is evidence that it gained doorstep traction. It was noticed and he banked some political capital. Capital that may be gaining interest for him now. There was someone this morning discussing lockdown penalties. It seems the government admits about 1/3 of people convicted of breaking lockdown regulations should not have been convicted because actually they did not. He said no one knows how many people who accepted fixed penalty fines should not have been given them. He said 'courts' were held in closed sessions without the accused even being allowed to attend. The rules changed so frequently no one understood them. Enforcement varied from police force to police force. One might hope a lawyer accused of breaking such a regulation took the trouble to clearly understand the actual rules he was alleged to have broken before deciding what to do. |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 3, 2022 19:11:41 GMT
According to Sky News that Kwartang is to make another U-turn. The 23 Nov date to be brought forward to sometime in October.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 19:13:11 GMT
It began months ago, years ago probably. Whose to say what is onboard the train, which very obviously wasnt a well kept secret.
Time for Biden to move some missile batteries about in range of Crimea.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Oct 3, 2022 19:21:37 GMT
Just for fun The Labour majority on the R&W poll would be around 400. The Tory party could come comfortably fit in the back of two Ford transits. The sort the police use? :-) |
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Post by expatr on Oct 3, 2022 19:23:29 GMT
Oh dear. The inevitable cry of "Privatisation" when a system employed by the best Health Service in the World * is suggested for the NHS. Across the EU ,Government schemes provided the financing for only 28.2 % of all healthcare expenditure in the EU in 2019, while compulsory contributory health insurance schemes and compulsory medical saving accounts accounted for 51.5 %. 20.3" by "other funding agents" -including households **. In France 78.2% of funding is from Compulsory, contributory health insurance schemes ** The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system. * France-World Health Organization, Measuring Overall Health System Performance for 191 Countries ** Eurostat. Healthcare expenditure statistics.
Looking at 2019 (the last year before COVID) France spent about US$750 per head more on healthcare than the UK - this, rather than the precise funding system (and compulsory social insurance is for the payer not really any different to a tax - hence NI), might be an explanatory factor. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 19:24:58 GMT
Sky news just did a budget analaysis for a family with a £300,000 mortgage. They argued the government subsidising energy cut their recent bills increase quite significantly, but since in the process interest is now shooting up, they reckoned the extra cost on the mortgage was greater thn the saving on energy, so the budget actually made their situation worse.
Of course, this family sounds like it could well be paying higher rate income tax, so the cut in that might have been handy too. Kwarteng's help to them has just been cancelled by popular vote.
Sky moved on to discussing the possibility of energy shortages this winter and there not being enough gas to keep power stations running. Only they said the crazy web of supply contracts means that a power station operator unable to obtain gas would face fines for failing to provide the electricity they had contracted to do. To avoid that risk, they could reduce the amount they offer, but then there would be a shortfall of supply anyway. And a bigger one, but at least the company would have protected itself. Tough luck fo those with no power.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 3, 2022 19:32:31 GMT
According to Sky News that Kwartang is to make another U-turn. The 23 Nov date to be brought forward to sometime in October. . I guess the big question is will all these U-turns have a big impact on VI? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 19:38:16 GMT
According to Sky News that Kwartang is to make another U-turn. The 23 Nov date to be brought forward to sometime in October. . I guess the big question is will all these U-turns have a big impact on VI?Kellner, he say no. His prediction is somewhere between minority government and labour landslide depending how it goes from now. This based on both Brown/lab and Major/con never recovering their reputations despite the economy recovering after the crashes they had to manage.
However, I still maintain con are likely to be better off having the crash right now allowing 2 years for people to forget and a recovery to set in, rather than interest creeping up more slowly and maybe the situation now not arriving for another year.
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Post by RAF on Oct 3, 2022 19:40:14 GMT
Oh dear. The inevitable cry of "Privatisation" when a system employed by the best Health Service in the World * is suggested for the NHS. Across the EU ,Government schemes provided the financing for only 28.2 % of all healthcare expenditure in the EU in 2019, while compulsory contributory health insurance schemes and compulsory medical saving accounts accounted for 51.5 %. 20.3" by "other funding agents" -including households **. In France 78.2% of funding is from Compulsory, contributory health insurance schemes ** The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system. * France-World Health Organization, Measuring Overall Health System Performance for 191 Countries ** Eurostat. Healthcare expenditure statistics.
Looking at 2019 (the last year before COVID) France spent about US$750 per head more on healthcare than the UK - this, rather than the precise funding system (and compulsory social insurance is for the payer not really any different to a tax - hence NI), might be an explanatory factor. Yes, I think the term "health insurance scheme" is ambiguous. The NHS is as much of a health insurance scheme as the French national health insurance scheme and vice-versa. They are compulsory national insurance schemes - whatever nomenclature is used. |
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Post by JohnC on Oct 3, 2022 19:45:31 GMT
Anent workhouses
Modern historical research, however, has suggested that for many in the later 19th and early 20th centuries, the workhouse was a welcome relief from poverty, and vulnerable people entered or left it at their own discretion, depending on the economics of their own area. For the elderly, it provided a form of what we would now term sheltered housing.
School history may not be the best basis for making judgments! As is well known, in workhouses families including husbands and wives were separated: histclo.com/insti/work/work.html"When a family entered the workhouse, they were separated. Women were at all times kept separate from the men, including their husbands." That you can even begin to justify workhouses beggars belief. Down here in England the Church wedding service contains the words "Whom God hath joined let no man put asunder." I realise this is a bit belated but I would like to add that not only were husbands and wives separated but mothers and children as well - mothers were allowed to see their children for one hour a day. This is a description of the children's room in the Axminster Workhouse (reported by the Devon & Exeter Gazette of 7 June 1912) at the time my grandmother and mother were inmates: 'It is at present the most gloomy, wretched, dirty place I have ever been in'. The bad publicity did however eventually lead to some improvements: according to The Western Times of 19 Sep 1919, the Axminster Guardians were told that the children's quarters were 'of the usual dull, cheerless type, but there were a few books and toys, and the children were allowed out freely into the fields'. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 19:46:02 GMT
In response to increasing leads Labour Party supporters echoing footy fans with chants of “WE WANT FORTY !! WE WANT FORTY !!! “ ⚽️
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 19:46:52 GMT
Not sure what impact its going to have on useage nationally, but my energy bill just went down to £33 per month what with the subsidy kicking in for the next 5 months. Which simplistically isnt encouraging much cutting back. Now, I understand the high marginal cost of each unit of energy I might use, but will others?
Isn't this rather encouraging people to use more, not realising that they will have to pay in the future. Couple that with a refusal to impose a credible windfall tax, and we are just throwing state money to the owners of energy companies. Thats classic conservative government.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 19:47:47 GMT
Most recent polls in one place I had thought that the BMG (Banjo, Mandolin and Guitar) stopped publishing ages ago. Had no idea that’d gone into polling as a sideline. |
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Post by expatr on Oct 3, 2022 19:52:44 GMT
Looking at 2019 (the last year before COVID) France spent about US$750 per head more on healthcare than the UK - this, rather than the precise funding system (and compulsory social insurance is for the payer not really any different to a tax - hence NI), might be an explanatory factor. Yes, I think the term "health insurance scheme" is ambiguous. The NHS is as much of a health insurance scheme as the French national health insurance scheme and vice-versa. They are compulsory national insurance schemes - whatever nomenclature is used. Indeed - the only real issue is that compulsory insurance (particularly when administered by multiple firms) have higher administration costs.
Spoiler - health system performance is what I do for a living and there is no relationship between funding mechanism and system outcomes.
And actually beyond a certain point very little effect on funding amount (although this is likely to be about the pillaging of the developing world for doctors and nurses)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 19:55:13 GMT
Most recent polls in one place And Kantar ... err ... umm ... 4% Possible outlier? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 19:56:05 GMT
In response to increasing leads Labour Party supporters echoing footy fans with chants of “WE WANT FORTY !! WE WANT FORTY !!! “ ⚽️ A cricket analogy might be that Labour should be thinking of enforcing the follow on now that the Tories are over 25% behind. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 19:58:32 GMT
According to Sky News that Kwartang is to make another U-turn. The 23 Nov date to be brought forward to sometime in October. . I guess the big question is will all these U-turns have a big impact on VI?When you look at these current polls, realistically how much worse can they possibly get for the Tories? The 25% Tory VI must be a floor, surely? Put another way, hasn't every Tory who is ever likely to decamp already done so and those who are left are the deadest of the diehards?? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 20:02:49 GMT
Thanks for the welcome and response. I'll be delighted if the RSPB, National Trust, Wildlife Trusts et al. do succeed in rousing people's ire but I remain sceptical, although I admit I'm not in a good position to judge what information filters to through to typical voters because my own consumption of news media is highly selective and idiosyncratic (for most of the past 2.5 years I've relied on R3 and scientific reports and publications).
I happen to think that because the environmental damage will be irreversible and severe, it would in principle be a dealbreaker for significant numbers of voters, yet I doubt it will be in practice, because most just won't get a real sense of the impending catastrophe from written words and numbers. Maybe using lots of photographs of national parks, AONBs and SSSIs will help.
The climate crisis only really started to rise up the political agenda when people began to notice the increased frequency of extreme weather events, which supports my contention that people are bad at evaluating indirect evidence, particularly quantitative evidence. Yet even now, whilst voters repeatedly say they are concerned about the climate crisis, they still vote for parties that aren't offering adequate proposals. Overwhelming majorities of climate scientists and ecologists are terrified and grief-stricken about what's coming, but the evidence doesn't have the same visceral impact on the general public, which lacks the scientific literacy to give it the headspace and emotional weight it deserves. The other thing that acts as a barrier to vote-switching is that I suspect a lot of voters don't think govts could do much more or move much faster than they are. So they find themselves in the position of the ROC voter who thinks there was no alternative to austerity: they wring their hands, take personal action and carry on voting on parties' policies in the round.
On the climate crisis I can see why large number of voters feel politicians can't or won't make a difference, but the political impotence argument doesn't apply to this govt's plan to destroy our natural environment in the probably futile pursuit of growth.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 20:07:22 GMT
Attachment DeletedJacob Rees Mogg says he wouldn't mind fracking in his garden. Well when you have 800 acres!
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Post by RAF on Oct 3, 2022 20:09:21 GMT
Hi peterbell . I guess the big question is will all these U-turns have a big impact on VI? When you look at these current polls, realistically how much worse can they possibly get for the Tories? The 25% Tory VI must be a floor, surely? Put another way, hasn't every Tory who is ever likely to decamp already done so and those who are left are the deadest of the diehards?? To paraphrase Public Enemy: "Tory base. How low can you go?" |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 20:11:12 GMT
alec I hope you're right. But your example illustrates part of my point. Turds on the beach provide concrete evidence that something has gone wrong after the event. That's often too late. It's much harder to get people to sit up and take notice of the decisions that a reasonable person can see will lead to turds on the beach. I would like people to vote on the foreseeable consequences of policies, not wait to be outraged when they eventuate. Unfortunately, other than improving our education system to increase scientific literacy and understanding of probability and risk, I don't have any ideas for achieving this. I guess meaningful numbers will switch their vote over fracking at the proposal stage. Is that because people draw a comparison with mining, because of earthquakes, reports of drinking water pollution in the US or because people look rationally at the figures about how much gas there is and the geological question marks over how much can be extracted and conclude that it's not worth the environmental damage? |
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 3, 2022 20:17:33 GMT
Most recent polls in one place I had thought that the BMG (Banjo, Mandolin and Guitar) stopped publishing ages ago. Had no idea that’d gone into polling as a sideline. Oh good grief, I don't believe it. @crofty I am a member BMG federation, the magazine is still published and there is a bi-annual festival which is hosted by member orchestras in various parts of Great Britain. For the absence of doubt oldnat there are no member orchestras in Northern Ireland and two of the last three festivals have been held in Scotland.
I never thought I would have such specialist knowledge to contribute to this site.
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