01-Oct 2022 : LAB: 46% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 6%

[barbara]

On the Guardian Live Blog:

70% of Britons favour closer relationship with EU, and 59% think Brexit has worsened economy, poll suggests

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has published some extensive new polling on Brexit. For anyone interested in the topic, it’s a data goldmine, but two finding stand out.



More than two thirds of voters (70%) favour a closer relationship with the EU over the medium term, the poll suggests. The report setting out the poll findings says:

When asked what the UK’s place within Europe should be in the next 10–15 years, just under a quarter (23 per cent) say “inside the European Union”. This is followed by a preference for “a new kind of association with the European Union unlike anything we know today” (19 per cent), a relationship “outside the European single market, but with a closer trade and security partnership than today” (17 per cent) and “outside EU political institutions, but within the European single market” (11 per cent). Only 7 per cent of the public wishes to “keep things as they are now after Brexit” and another 7 per cent would prefer “no or minimal economic and political ties with the European Union”.



Overall, about a third of the public favour at least the single-market type relationship with the EU. Another third favour a closer relationship than today while remaining outside the EU and the single market, but do not have a clear idea of what that relationship might entail.



Most voters think Brexit has made the economy worse, the poll suggests. The report says:

Most Britons (59 per cent) think that Britain’s exit from the EU has worsened our economy, with 20 per cent thinking that it has made no difference and just 14 per cent seeing an improvement. Only a small percentage of the public (6 per cent) don’t know, meaning that voters have largely made up their minds about the economic effects of Brexit – and their views are mostly negative.



While there is a 2016 effect, with over four-fifths of Remainers thinking Brexit has worsened Britain’s economy, even Leavers are unenthusiastic about the economic effects of Brexit. Over two-thirds of Leavers say that it has either worsened the UK’s economy (34 per cent) or made no difference (35 per cent), compared to only about a quarter (24 per cent) who think that Britain’s economy has improved as a result of Brexit.



Polling on Brexit

Polling on Brexit Photograph: TB Institute

Commenting on the findings, Tony Blair said:



Those like myself who were passionately opposed to Brexit will continue to believe it was a mistake. But we should acknowledge that it will not be undone under this generation of political leadership.



Those who supported Brexit should give up trying to ‘prove’ to the rest of us that it was the right decision if only we believed in it enough.



This polling shows that the British people want a sensible way forward on Brexit which recognises that in the foreseeable future at least the decision to leave Europe cannot be reversed. But that Britain needs a constructive relationship with the continent of which we are a part.



What therefore makes sense is for the British government to fix the problems arising from Brexit, notably on the Northern Ireland protocol, and then build, over time, the right trading, security and political cooperation for the future.



Advertisement

[Deleted]

Just came across this in a little-known (to me anyway) section of this boutique known as “Introduce yourself” and felt I had to share it with everybody as there is something nice about me in it:

“ Hello all.

I’ve regularly looked in on the old UKPR for ten years or so before being relieved to see you bunch of randoms 🙂 continue where Wells left off. A world without Crofty would have been a diminished world so I’m glad you did the sequel.

etc etc etc Dave.”

I haven’t felt so touched since I read colin’s eulogy to me and - sadly - this means that ole @crossbat is longer my best friend in the gents section. Came at a good time too as I am feeling ORFUL at the moment suffering with the after effects of dental treatment

As I head towards the later years of my life I share the sentiment that a world without ME will be much diminished and, to be honest, I don’t really know how I will cope with it: no more Arsenal, no more music, no more little dogs to walk - and absolutely nothing at all to do for eternity.

It just sounds crap. So thankyou Dave for cheering me up!

Paul

[Deleted]

barbara

You lost, get over it.

(Trying to head off a response from the jibster - probably vainly.)

[neilj]

@jimjam

My view is as Labour lead in 9 out of 10 policy areas it will have a much bigger poll lead overall than on each individual policy
The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

[alec]

Do I understand this right: Tories f@ck up, massively, (like, 1976 + 1992, doubled) and our colin tells us the pressure is on that duffer Starmer?

'Twas ever thus.

[hireton]

[Deleted]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63298057

Energy bills going up to £4k in 6 months' time is going to do nothing for the Tory VI. Are we heading for the teens?

[Deleted]

Oct 18, 2022 15:56:49 GMT alec said:

Do I understand this right: Tories f@ck up, massively, (like, 1976 + 1992, doubled) and our colin tells us the pressure is on that duffer Starmer?

'Twas ever thus.

No.

[alec]

Wholesale gas prices fell by 30% today apparently, as the EU Commission announced their plans to regulate prices. ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_6225

Good for us too (UK prices have fallen also).

[alec]

colin - only teasing.

There is truth in what you say, although not so much, I suspect. The Tory reputation is shot, and that removes much pressure from Labour, whatever the talking heads say. "Time for a change..." and "anyone is better than this lot..." will be powerful messages.

[crossbat11]

Oct 18, 2022 15:28:18 GMT neilj said:

@jimjam

My view is as Labour lead in 9 out of 10 policy areas it will have a much bigger poll lead overall than on each individual policy
The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

I wrote many moons ago about what the telltale signs of a government that has become moribund and heading out of office tend to look like. I think we're seeing them now.

When the electorate have more or less given up on you, every key polling indicator goes red for you, even on issues that were always supposed to be strengths. In the Tories case those tend to be economic competence, law and order, security and, since its recent emergence, Brexit too. What's happening now I think is that voters are dialling the Tories down on everything, whether damning evidence is available or not. A sort of plague on all Tory houses. That's a terrible position to be in for a political party. Irrecoverable within a Parliament, I suspect, especially if you're the incumbent government.

And then there's the death spiral of not getting the credit for anything but the blame for everything. The world of Major and Brown in their government's dying days.

These extraordinary polls are suggesting that the Tories have entered these dark and chilling places.

Have the doors to this political hell slammed behind them too?

[davwel]

There has been a big development in the history of Stonehenge, as shown in a documentary on BBC 2 last night. It amounts to an overturning of the beliefs of culture-history experts on the abilities 5000-5500 years ago of the peoples living in the UK.

It has now been shown that these people were able to have set up a fine big stone circle in the Preseli Hills of SW Wales, and then decades later sledge the enormous stones to an existing burial monument on Salisbury Plain. And re-erect the stones.

So they had cross-country communication, knowledge of geography, beasts domesticated, a good technology.

And this is people in geographic Wales deciding to move and stay in central Southern England. An inspiration of what could happen again when the UK fringes get mobilised, perhaps triggered by the ridiculous Tory extremists wrecking the UK in the last ten years.

[James E]

R&W's 'Red Wall' poll with a 40% Lab lead matches up with their 36% GB lead yesterday. Both represent 24% swings on GE2019.

This is still very good news for Labour, as most regional cross-breaks had shown their progress as a bit lower in the North of England, and the Tories may yet benefit from some first-time encumbency. But at the moment, the polls don't support that.

[pjw1961]

Looks like the Pensions triple lock may be abandoned. Now, I think this is a good thing in many ways but the politics of it is interesting. Pensioners are the Tories core voting block after all, so attacking their interests is a 'courageous move Minister'.

Perhaps it is all a plan to get Crofty that 80 to 0 lead he was after.

[crossbat11]

Oct 18, 2022 15:56:49 GMT alec said:

Do I understand this right: Tories f@ck up, massively, (like, 1976 + 1992, doubled) and our colin tells us the pressure is on that duffer Starmer?

'Twas ever thus.

I'm going to be a poor man's graham here, Alec, and suggest you've made a mistake with the dates you've referred to. I get 1992 for Black Wednesday but what did the Tories get wrong in 1976? They were in opposition. Surely you mean the three day week in 1973?

Unless you're being very subtle and refer to the date when the Tories elected Thatcher as their leader. In which case that was 1975 not 1976.

[Deleted]

Oct 18, 2022 16:21:06 GMT pjw1961 said:

Looks like the Pensions triple lock may be abandoned. Now, I think this is a good thing in many ways but the politics of it is interesting. Pensioners are the Tories core voting block after all, so attacking their interests is a 'courageous move Minister'.

Perhaps it is all a plan to get Crofty that 80 to 0 lead he was after.

It’s a bit sad that other people seem to remember the rubbish that I write better than I can.

(Just not sure for whom though.)

Anyway, I am now looking for 100- 0 in the Red Wall seats before I feel confident.

[jib]

Sometimes the barefaced cheek of Tories is something else.

Mark Drakeford certainly didn't hold back!

link

[jimjam]

James E,

I live in a seat the Tories took from Labour in 2019 and reckoned the national swing needed to be 2% or so above the one notionally needed in this seat.

I still think some double incumbency will work in this seat.

As things stand this would just lower Labours majority by 1000 or so but in some seats that could be enough to make the difference.

[Deleted]

crossbat11

“ I'm going to be a poor man's graham here.”

Doesn’t that get a mention in the bible? Cant remember what it was about though but I know there was no polling in those days.

[steve]

Labour were odds on for winning all the red wall seats before the tories latest attempt to destroy the economy.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a few of the born again Tories in these seats suddenly remember they left the bath running and resign.

[pjw1961]

Oct 18, 2022 16:31:22 GMT @crofty said:

Oct 18, 2022 16:21:06 GMT pjw1961 said:

Looks like the Pensions triple lock may be abandoned. Now, I think this is a good thing in many ways but the politics of it is interesting. Pensioners are the Tories core voting block after all, so attacking their interests is a 'courageous move Minister'.

Perhaps it is all a plan to get Crofty that 80 to 0 lead he was after.

It’s a bit sad that other people seem to remember the rubbish that I write better than I can.

(Just not sure for whom though.)

Anyway, I am now looking for 100- 0 in the Red Wall seats before I feel confident.

You should know I hang on your every word!

[Deleted]

It gets worse:

“ In the Commons debate on the public order bill the Conservative MP Sir Charles Walker launched a fierce attack on the government’s plans for serious disruption prevention orders. These are designed for use against people who repeatedly stage disrputive protests, like the Just Stop Oil activists. They could be banned from particular places, or required to wear tags. Breaching an order will be a criminal offence, with a maximum penalty of up to six months in jail.

Walker said he was totally opposed to the proposed orders. He told MPs:

They leave me absolutely cold. In fact, I go as far as to say they are appalling. Absolutely appalling, because there are plenty of existing laws that can be utilised to deal with people who specialise in making other people’s lives miserable …
The idea that in this country, we are going to ankle tag someone who has not been convicted in a court of law ... I mean, I tell you what, those Chinese in their embassy will be watching this very closely at the moment, they might actually be applying for some of this stuff when we pass it in this place as I suspect we will.
This is as unconservative as our budget of a few weeks ago. This is not what the Conservative party does, we believe in proportionate laws, like we used to believe in sound money.
So I will be voting against this. I will be joining with honourable members across the house to vote against this piece of legislation.”

Guardian

[Deleted]

Oct 18, 2022 16:40:12 GMT pjw1961 said:

Oct 18, 2022 16:31:22 GMT @crofty said:

It’s a bit sad that other people seem to remember the rubbish that I write better than I can.

(Just not sure for whom though.)

Anyway, I am now looking for 100- 0 in the Red Wall seats before I feel confident.

You should know I hang on your every word!

Make sure you’ve got safe landing available. 

[Dave]

Oct 18, 2022 15:23:21 GMT @crofty said:

So thankyou Dave for cheering me up!

I exist to serve, kind sir.  (Glad you've got over Crossbat by the way - it's not his fault, but he's the wrong claret and blue.  No good would have come of that). 

[alec]

crossbat11 - I was referring to Healy and the 1976 dash to meet the IMF, etc etc.

The point being that this crisis is worse than the two events combined.

[steve]

@crofty
Listened to human embodiment of a daily mail headline this morning Nick Ferrari who seemed to think that 6 months imprisonment for protesting about the destruction of the world by gluing your hands to the floor was namby pamby wokeness.
Presumably he would prefer on scene amputation and the remaining part of the protester fed down the nearest fracking site.

It's ludicrous, there's plenty of laws available already , some of the protests are counter productive a small minority do endanger other members of the public but mostly they're just a relatively minor inconvenience perpetuated by well meaning people and should be treated as such.

[steve]

A bit of a limited client base!

[alec]

A timely reminder, as Conservatives head back to the comfort blanket of austerity, of just what a f@ck up they have made of the NHS -

These waiting times are horrendous, but note carefully the correlation of the spikes and dips with waves of covid infection. There are many pressures here, but having c 3% and rising of your population infected with a preventable disease which adds 10+% to your overnight hospital population during waves, when those waves come every three months or so, is clearly going to cause problems.

One or other of the two big parties, and in Scotland, I place the SNP also in the culpable bracket, is going to have to start to address the simple fact that we will not achieve economic growth of any great level until we deal with the issue of repeat covid infection and all that flows from it.

[alec]

Here's the evidence - www.ft.com/content/19d2989b-e078-464e-b2fa-76243cfb44c8

For as long as Conservatives think health, education and welfare are costs, rather than investments in a productive social system, we won't advance.

[Dave]

Oct 18, 2022 16:37:54 GMT steve said:

Labour were odds on for winning all the red wall seats before the tories latest attempt to destroy the economy.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a few of the born again Tories in these seats suddenly remember they left the bath running and resign.

If only for the sake of extending their own careers, there may be a fair few red-wall Tory MPs who prefer Labour's economic offerings over their own party's austerity 2 offering. In fairness amongst their number, I think some/ many are surely genuine in wishing better lives for their constituents and can see Hunt's probable offering as not helping to achieve that.  I wonder if some of them will be on the phone to Starmer and co to see if they can prolong their parliamentary careers.  I hope not to be honest, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't at least in the exploratory stages for some of them.