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Post by jayblanc on Oct 17, 2022 18:48:06 GMT
It's worth remembering that in 1997 Labour 'only' managed a lead of 12.5% despite the huge historic opinion poll numbers we've been hearing about recently.
Also important to remember that polling in the 90s is radically different to polling now. Polling then was beset with the problem of 'false recall' of respondents incorrectly identifying who they previously voted for, resulting in poor reshaping of the result to try to give a representative sample. The solution to this didn't really come till the internet allowed for the use of tracker panels, and tracking of them over multiple elections, to provide a clear image of the change in people's opinions over time. While there's been a lot of 'upset results', polling is still much more accurate now than then. Generally, things fail in modern polling when concentrated groups 'hidden' inside larger populations switch over opinion but are masked by sampling not finding them. This does not appear to be something that applies with the current state of things. |
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Post by johntel on Oct 17, 2022 18:55:13 GMT
[quote source="/post/56754/thread" timestamp="1666027898" Generally, things fail in modern polling when concentrated groups 'hidden' inside larger populations switch over opinion but are masked by sampling not finding them. This does not appear to be something that applies with the current state of things. I don't follow this jb. Could you elucidate e.g. with an example please? |
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Post by bardin1 on Oct 17, 2022 19:04:38 GMT
“ Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said. He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together". Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM". Hancock angling for a cabinet job I imagine. Heard he's neck and neck with some woman for it in the polls |
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Post by jib on Oct 17, 2022 19:06:10 GMT
OK, I ripped this from the POLITICO website, but it does illustrate what a remarkable effect Liz Truss has has. Incredible stuff. Well done. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on Oct 17, 2022 19:09:30 GMT
HOLD EVERYTHING!
What im God's name is going on with the bottom right grid in today's Quordle!
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2022 19:16:35 GMT
[quote source="/post/56754/thread" timestamp="1666027898" Generally, things fail in modern polling when concentrated groups 'hidden' inside larger populations switch over opinion but are masked by sampling not finding them. This does not appear to be something that applies with the current state of things. I don't follow this jb. Could you elucidate e.g. with an example please? 1997 would be one example. The Lib Dems went from 18 seats in 1992 to 46 seats in 1997 despite their overall support falling by 1.0%. Why? Because the voters had worked out which opposition party had the best chance of defeating the Tories in each seat. Classic opinion polls don't poll enough voters to be able to spot movements in individual constituencies and even MRP polls rely on changes of opinion being replicated across a number of constituencies. See www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_polling.html for an explanation of how MRP works. Remember that polling organisations get their reputations from how well they predict Labour and Tory results. If they get the Lib Dems or the Greens 100% wrong no one really notices. I remember in 1997 that the bookies were offering 10:1 against the Lib Dems winning 30 seats or more. |
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Post by RAF on Oct 17, 2022 19:27:43 GMT
“ Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said. He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together". Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM". Hancock angling for a cabinet job I imagine. Mistakes have been made. By someone. Somewhere. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2022 19:29:48 GMT
Looks like Labour will be doing well in Scotland too. Hopefully the Celtic Nations will nil pois the Tories in terms of seats, although I'm dubious about the Montgomeryshire seat in Wales.
As we all know, FPTP is ludicrously unrepresentative, which is why the SNP, which either holds or is the main challenger, in every Scottish seat does so well in terms of Westminster seats.
The 6 SCon seats, assuming none of them manage to hang on, will all fall to the SNP, as ex-SLab voters there stop tactically voting SCon to keep the SNP out.
Some of the seats where SLD and SNP are the contestants, are unpredictable as tactical voting by SLab and SCon voters is significant, but hard to predict.
Some SNP seats are vulnerable to even greater consolidation of UK Unionist votes behind Labour, combined with relatively small moves from SNP to SLab.
The mechanics are the same as in FPTP elections elsewhere, but the dynamics are somewhat different in Scotland, due to the centrality of the indy question. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2022 19:39:25 GMT
They can't even co-ordinate their lies.
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Post by eotw on Oct 17, 2022 19:40:36 GMT
HOLD EVERYTHING! What im God's name is going on with the bottom right grid in today's Quordle! Had to use anagram silver to get it |
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Post by catmanjeff on Oct 17, 2022 19:47:55 GMT
I hope everyone is well.
Just seen this on Twitter.
At a human level, I feel sorry for Liz Truss. She looks utterly broken. If she was a member of family, I'd be urging her to quit very quickly.
For her own health, she needs to walk away.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 19:59:11 GMT
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together". Does that just mean they all agree she should resign? |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 17, 2022 20:02:11 GMT
HOLD EVERYTHING! What im God's name is going on with the bottom right grid in today's Quordle! I have not done Quordle since I did it twice in minimum number of lines & thought well I am an immortal. I don't really see the problem as in the end there can only be one word that fits, if you accept there is such a word, yet another Americanism?, and work out that c is in the middle. Tho I don't get how eotw's silver helps? PS it took me 8 & a long time which is why I gave up Q. |
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Post by RAF on Oct 17, 2022 20:09:48 GMT
It seems as if the Tories are trying to close ranks on Truss. Whether this is due to any faith that the reboot will succeed or due to the lack of a viable alternative is unclear.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 17, 2022 20:12:17 GMT
I hope everyone is well. Just seen this on Twitter. At a human level, I feel sorry for Liz Truss. She looks utterly broken. If she was a member of family, I'd be urging her to quit very quickly. For her own health, she needs to walk away. One can't help but have empathy on a human level. She's clearly a damaged individual with abnormal responses according to my psychologist wife and she probably always was. No idea but maybe her parents were far more interested in their causes than they were in her.Who knows? However instead of helping her work within the bounds of reality those around her in the Tory party have colluded in bolstering and enabling her delusions. As Crossbat has said many times ultimately it's the party that's to blame for the mess. A party that allowed and encouraged someone who is basically a fantasist to reach the level where they could do real damage. |
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on Oct 17, 2022 20:15:05 GMT
HOLD EVERYTHING! What im God's name is going on with the bottom right grid in today's Quordle! I have not done Quordle since I did it twice in minimum number of lines & thought well I am an immortal. I don't really see the problem as in the end there can only be one word that fits, if you accept there is such a word, yet another Americanism?, and work out that c is in the middle. Tho I don't get how eotw's silver helps? What do you mean; the minimum number of lines? Well its not an actual word at all. Normally its just written as initials. |
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Post by jib on Oct 17, 2022 20:18:04 GMT
Looks like Labour will be doing well in Scotland too. Hopefully the Celtic Nations will nil pois the Tories in terms of seats, although I'm dubious about the Montgomeryshire seat in Wales.
None at all. I hope they end up completely frozen out. |
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Post by thylacine on Oct 17, 2022 20:21:22 GMT
 Those Tories better be careful, we've all seen Carrie ! Pretending to elect her prom queen then dumping a bucket of blood over her. We know what happens next! |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2022 20:23:20 GMT
jib“the problems of three little people don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world.” (Bogart in Casablanca)
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 17, 2022 20:23:50 GMT
I have not done Quordle since I did it twice in minimum number of lines & thought well I am an immortal. I don't really see the problem as in the end there can only be one word that fits, if you accept there is such a word, yet another Americanism?, and work out that c is in the middle. Tho I don't get how eotw's silver helps? What do you mean; the minimum number of lines? Well its not an actual word at all. Normally its just written as initials. First, I added above PS it took me 8 & a long time which is why I gave up Q. Second, it appears to be in dictionaries. I mean: first line was starter word and then four more lines, getting the word right each time in one further go = five lines. Technically you could do it in four lines, which would mean yr starter word would have to be one of the four words straight off: which I guess someone has done. Double Immortal. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 20:24:57 GMT
 Light relief. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 20:29:12 GMT
Looks like Labour will be doing well in Scotland too. Hopefully the Celtic Nations will nil pois the Tories in terms of seats, although I'm dubious about the Montgomeryshire seat in Wales.
As we all know, FPTP is ludicrously unrepresentative, which is why the SNP, which either holds or is the main challenger, in every Scottish seat does so well in terms of Westminster seats.
The 6 SCon seats, assuming none of them manage to hang on, will all fall to the SNP, as ex-SLab voters there stop tactically voting SCon to keep the SNP out.
Some of the seats where SLD and SNP are the contestants, are unpredictable as tactical voting by SLab and SCon voters is significant, but hard to predict.
Some SNP seats are vulnerable to even greater consolidation of UK Unionist votes behind Labour, combined with relatively small moves from SNP to SLab.
The mechanics are the same as in FPTP elections elsewhere, but the dynamics are somewhat different in Scotland, due to the centrality of the indy question.This is just the sort of petit pois-scoring that brings this forum into disrepute. I've forwarded it to Mark via a personal message for his appropriate moderating scrutiny. |
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Post by jib on Oct 17, 2022 20:32:17 GMT
It seems as if the Tories are trying to close ranks on Truss. Whether this is due to any faith that the reboot will succeed or due to the lack of a viable alternative is unclear. She's the Captain that hit the iceberg of economic reality. I don't think they know how bad it is yet, but if the Tory ship is sunk, who of Sunak, Mordaunt or any other would want the helm. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2022 20:36:58 GMT
I hope everyone is well. Just seen this on Twitter. At a human level, I feel sorry for Liz Truss. She looks utterly broken. If she was a member of family, I'd be urging her to quit very quickly. For her own health, she needs to walk away. One can't help but have empathy on a human level. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 20:38:11 GMT
“ Rapid eye blinking is a sign of nervousness, anxiety, or deception. If you see a blink rate higher than twenty per minute, that person could be under stress depending on the context of the situation. Take note when you see a high blink rate this is an indication of stress.”
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2022 20:44:58 GMT
Might the Tories, in the dying days of their administration, legislate for a form of PR for the next GE, in order to avoid a wipeout?
Unlikely, but it was the introduction of AMS in Scotland in 1999 that saved SCon from extinction.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 20:49:39 GMT
Time for the Tories to wake up and smell the Coffey, I think
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 20:56:18 GMT
The most common reason for a high blink rate is the wearing of contact lenses.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 21:12:29 GMT
All the attention has been on the fiscal elements of the Truss-Kwarteng programme, because they were what made the markets take fright - and it is the markets that brought down the Chancellor, not outrage amongst the UK electorate - but the supply-side reforms and dismantling of public services will be more damaging and they are still very much on the table.
Hunt has not resiled from Truss's 'grow the cake' philosophy nor has he talked much (at all?) about what are usually cited as the main drivers of growth and productivity in developed economies (investing in education, training, automation, innovation, technological development), so it looks as if the bonfire of regulations, standards and safeguards - with everything that implies for the environment and people - will be going ahead, to general applause from the Right.
Much of the impact of deregulation can be delivered without formal govt action, thus avoiding creating a target for organised protest. It suffices to cease enforcement - thus reducing public spending. This is already happening.
By the end of 2024 I suspect that the welfare state will be unrecognisable and I don't expect Labour to attempt to resurrect it. We may well be heading for a system involving much more extensive means-tested co-payments for healthcare. That ought to be anathema to anyone who believes that access to health care should be independent of ability to pay, but many lefties are inexplicably fond of means-testing. A flight from publicly funded services will mean fewer middle class voters fighting for them and further declines in quality will attract less attention.
Under Starmer Lab has appeared to be competing to be judged the best steward of a capitalist economy, best at striking the right balance between tax and services and competent at running public services. The Tories' self-sabotage seems to have gifted them a win, but at some point Reeves and Starmer are going to come under pressure to explain how they will do a better job than Hunt of maintaining public services whilst remaining fiscally responsible.
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Post by RAF on Oct 17, 2022 21:14:01 GMT
The most common reason for a high blink rate is the wearing of contact lenses. Could be. Contacts do dry out the eyes and effectively force blinking. However, if she wears contacts and they have that effect on her, we probably would have noticed it before. |
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