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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 16:21:47 GMT
Labour leads by 36%. Largest lead for ANY party with ANY polling company since October 1997. Westminster VI (16 Oct.): Labour 56% (+3) Conservative 20% (-4) Lib Dems 11% (-2) Green 5% (+2) SNP 4% (–) Reform UK 2% (–) Other 1% (-2) Changes +/- 13 Oct. redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/3YGPsmcyO8 17/10/2022, 17:00 Wow! Wow and more wow. And Colin likes it too!! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 16:24:47 GMT
Forget where the hell Truss is or how well Penny is holding the fort.
Reports are coming in that Mrs Starmer is measuring the curtains in Downing Street. At this very moment.
She snook in while Truss was in the Commons. Or somewhere.
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Post by RAF on Oct 17, 2022 16:29:36 GMT
IMHO Liz Truss looks unwell. No-one should have to go through this.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 16:30:23 GMT
Can’t ever remember such a calamitous collapse in confidence in a UK government before - certainly not so fast
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 16:31:24 GMT
IMHO Liz Truss looks unwell. No-one should have to go through this. The Tories did it to her by electing her - it was obvious she didn’t have a clue |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 16:32:02 GMT
IMHO Liz Truss looks unwell. No-one should have to go through this. I know what you mean, but it was self-inflicted and she can end it by resigning at any time. Her own party would thank her for it. |
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Post by barbara on Oct 17, 2022 16:32:03 GMT
Truss seriously looks as if she has been given medication. Doesn't appear to be able to stop blinking. This can be a sign of anxiety or a neurological disorder. She was very pale as well. Either she is close to a breakdown or she is, as you say, on medication. She needs to resign for her own health never mind everybody else's. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 16:33:39 GMT
By the way, it is Sir David Butler's 98th birthday today.
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wb61
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Post by wb61 on Oct 17, 2022 16:34:38 GMT
Without, I hope, being too po-faced, it is usually unwise to diagnose a persons health from TV images.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 16:41:08 GMT
Largest lead for ANY party with ANY polling company since October 1997. A year of some significance I seem to remember.
Interesting that Labour recorded such a lead 5 months AFTER assuming power. Of course in the election they only won by 13%. Was this a Diana bounce? I remember Hague messed that one up (as did the Queen).
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2022 16:42:06 GMT
The UK Government's net competency rating is -60%, the lowest rating we have recorded for ANY UK Government. Government Competency Rating (16 October): Incompetent: 67% (+9) Competent: 7% (-6) Net: -60% (-15) Changes +/- 9 October redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 16:46:28 GMT
I suspect a lot of people are telling polling companies they would vote Labour because they like Labour and dislike the Tories (duh) however, when the next GE campaign starts they will suddenly be reminded that they live in a constituency where Labour doesn't have a chance, so smaller parties will benefit compared to these polls. Maybe even the Tories will do better if people remember they quite like their local Tory MP because he/she isn't 'as bad as all the rest'.
Plus of course the Tories will peddle a barrel full of slurs and lies as per usual, which will be spread by the many Tory-friendly media outlets, so that will tighten the polls even further.
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Post by alec on Oct 17, 2022 16:49:58 GMT
Early (and inconclusive) data from New York on the covid BQ1.1 variant. This is the most immune evasive variant to date, and appears to have a decent growth advantage over BA5. Case numbers are difficult to assess, as NY has, like many other countries, scaled back testing, but the official data suggests cases are level. However, there has been a sharp increase in hospital admissions.
Alongside mutations that aid immune escape, BQ1.1 also has mutations that are thought to facilitate higher cell binding, making it in theory more severe - more like Delta than Omicron, in terms of severity, but with high immune escape.
The NY data tends to back this up, but it's too early to say whether this is a genuine effect or an artifact of statistics. Either way, BQ1.1 is expected to create a major wave here in November. UK is now in the bottom half of European countries for booster doses.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2022 16:53:32 GMT
I suspect a lot of people are telling polling companies they would vote Labour because they like Labour and dislike the Tories (duh) however, when the next GE campaign starts they will suddenly be reminded that they live in a constituency where Labour doesn't have a chance, so smaller parties will benefit compared to these polls. Maybe even the Tories will do better if people remember they quite like their local Tory MP because he/she isn't 'as bad as all the rest'. Plus of course the Tories will peddle a barrel full of slurs and lies as per usual, which will be spread by the many Tory-friendly media outlets, so that will tighten the polls even further. Possibly so and it may save some seats, but none of that is likely to be enough to win from this position. No government in the history of UK polling has come back from being consistently 20+ points down to win and this dip is currently looking more like 30+ points down. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 17:08:49 GMT
Possibly so and it may save some seats, but none of that is likely to be enough to win from this position. No government in the history of UK polling has come back from being consistently 20+ points down to win and this dip is currently looking more like 30+ points down. Oh that's until this one does! Call me cynical but I might have to rethink my prediction... Never say never and all that  |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Oct 17, 2022 17:09:27 GMT
I suspect a lot of people are telling polling companies they would vote Labour because they like Labour and dislike the Tories (duh) however, when the next GE campaign starts they will suddenly be reminded that they live in a constituency where Labour doesn't have a chance, so smaller parties will benefit compared to these polls. Maybe even the Tories will do better if people remember they quite like their local Tory MP because he/she isn't 'as bad as all the rest'. Plus of course the Tories will peddle a barrel full of slurs and lies as per usual, which will be spread by the many Tory-friendly media outlets, so that will tighten the polls even further. Possibly so and it may save some seats, but none of that is likely to be enough to win from this position. No government in the history of UK polling has come back from being consistently 20+ points down to win and this dip is currently looking more like 30+ points down. Yes, that's the point, in politics you can descend rapidly but a government can rarely, if ever, ascend quickly. In times past, about the only thing that could get a government out of such a deep ditch would be winning a 'popular' war. The things that might make a government popular with electors just aren't available to the Tories to use. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 17:13:24 GMT
With what looks very much looks like the implosion of the Tory Government, how soon will it be before we see big name defections?
Laura Kuennsberg to Sky News?
Andrew Neil back to GB News?
Nick Robinson to the Dail Mail?
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Post by shevii on Oct 17, 2022 17:24:25 GMT
Chris Curtis is running for Labour MP for MK North (I'm not clear if he has been selected yet or challenging to be the prospective candidate). Ironic given the lower Opinium leads for Labour! He'll certainly not take anything for granted if his polls are anything to go by!
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Post by James E on Oct 17, 2022 17:29:34 GMT
R&W's Con2019 cross-break is interesting, as it's the first in which more say they would switch to Labour than 'Don't Know'.
Con 37%
Lab 26%
DK 25%
LD 4%
Lab to LD is 2%, with 35% of 2019LDs saying they would now vote Labour. Those are farily typical for R&W who generally show lower 'churn ' than YouGov.
Lab to Con is 0%.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 17:31:38 GMT
It's worth remembering that in 1997 Labour 'only' managed a lead of 12.5% despite the huge historic opinion poll numbers we've been hearing about recently.
A few things different now: I'd argue Labour are in reality in a slightly worse position than they were under Blair (in terms of front-bench quality, media savviness etc). This is however counter-balanced - and more - by the terrible state the Tories are in.
The loss of so many Scottish seats will not help Labour and may prove costly if things are closer than expected.
The Tories can no longer rely on their golden egg of Euroscepticism, which they used to dangle about when required. It's been well and truly hatched/splattered over everyone's faces and is no use anymore in terms of votes. It would probably have been a better idea electorally to stay in and moan about it forever rather than leave!
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Post by peterbell on Oct 17, 2022 17:40:33 GMT
Sky saying that Truss missed the Commons because she was in a meeting with Graham Brady. I would have thought her place in the Commons was the more important of two.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 17:45:20 GMT
Sky saying that Truss missed the Commons because she was in a meeting with Graham Brady. I would have thought her place in the Commons was the more important of two.
He probably had a few letters to tell her about.
Cabinet resignations expected in the next couple of days.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2022 17:58:27 GMT
Labour talking about the "Tory Mortgage Premium", likely to be paid for years to come.
Tory Mortgage Premium seems like a zinger of a soundbite with real legs.
Is it up there with "Maxed out Credit Cards", "Unrepaired Rooves when the sun is shining" or "Coalition of Chaos", though?
We'll see. Less media outlets prepared to parrott it, but I think it's got some mileage. Worcester Woman might listen.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 18:00:55 GMT
Wow and more wow. And Colin likes it too!! He will be happy that it wasn’t worse.  |
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2022 18:01:06 GMT
Penny dreadful insisting there's a genuine reason why Truss isn't in the chamber. A hostage to fortune if this proves to be total bollocks and interesting what could have prevented her from being there if not. News reported she was seeing chair of 22 committee. Presumably to ask him if she still has a job. IMHO Liz Truss looks unwell. No-one should have to go through this. i think she was set up to fail. Thats a bit harsh, maybe if she could have executed her grand plan then the party would have smiled upon her. But she was picked by the MPS because the members would choose her, probably with a decent idea what she would do and then what would happen. She has achieved discrediting trickle down economics, and discreting Brexit, and I think the party needed to do that. It has to find a way back to power and if the next election is already lost, its sights are on the one after.
Its better for con that they are the ones attacking Truss than that labour are doing so. Individual MPs have to distance themselves from their own government and recreate the party.
Its intresting that an MP was on R4 just now vehemently defending her. This is the revenge of the conservative remainers. But he illustrated how the party remains riven and thus the problem if there is another leadership contest. Hunt remaining as unofficial leader of the uk government seems to be solidifying. |
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Post by James E on Oct 17, 2022 18:17:49 GMT
It's worth remembering that in 1997 Labour 'only' managed a lead of 12.5% despite the huge historic opinion poll numbers we've been hearing about recently. A few things different now: I'd argue Labour are in reality in a slightly worse position than they were under Blair (in terms of front-bench quality, media savviness etc). This is however counter-balanced - and more - by the terrible state the Tories are in. I thought I'd do a bit of a comparison between the current polls and those of the nadir of the Conservative Government of the 90s. The most recent 10 published polls now average a 28% Lab lead. Those from Blair's peak in opposition seem to have been around the end of 1994 and start of 95. From that time, there is a 10-poll sequence with a 31% average Lab lead. It's perhaps easier to remember the 40-point Gallup leads than the 18%s from ICM. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election |
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2022 18:23:24 GMT
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Post by graham on Oct 17, 2022 18:38:50 GMT
That would be a swing from SNP to Labour of 6.2% - and implies 6 Labour gains.
The Opinium MRP poll is suggesting 15 Labour seats in Scotland.
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Post by jib on Oct 17, 2022 18:39:53 GMT
Looks like Labour will be doing well in Scotland too. Hopefully the Celtic Nations will nil pois the Tories in terms of seats, although I'm dubious about the Montgomeryshire seat in Wales. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2022 18:45:04 GMT
“ Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM".
Hancock angling for a cabinet job I imagine.
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