pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 16:11:51 GMT
I have another statistic polling jamboree for those who enjoy that sort of thing. I have had a look at the existence or otherwise of polling 'bounces' for new Prime Minsters. I have produced the monthly figures for the 6 months before and after each change (Gallup to 1997, all polls thereafter). The month of the change itself is in brackets as there were two PMs in that month. Minus figures are an opposition lead, plus figures a government lead. Pre-Truss they seem to me to fall into three camps:
1) The early ones - not much happens
Macmillan replaces Eden Jan 1957 - -7,-6, -3, -5, -1, -1 (-5) -6, -11. -10, -9, -8, -8 No bounce for Macmillan
Douglas-Home replaces Macmillan Oct 1963 - -15, -11, -20, -18, -16, -16 (-12), -12, -8, -8, -9, -9, -12 Minimal bounce for Douglas-Home
Callaghan replaces Wilson Apr 1976 - +2, +5, +1, +2, -5, -3, (+5), -3, -4, 0, -3, 0, -12 No bounce for Callaghan
2) Replacing a long serving PM who people had wearied of - a bounce (one of which proved game changing, the other temporary)
Major replaces Thatcher Nov 1990 - -12, -16, -14, -13, -12, -12 (-4) +6, +5, +5, +5, +4, +1
Brown replaces Blair June 2007 - -3, -6, -7, -7, -7, -4 (0) +5, +6, +7, -2, -8, -9
3) Brexit affected - Bounces for May and Johnson, but in both cases Brexit was clearly a huge factor
May replaces Cameron July 2016 - +8, +8, +3, +3, +4, +3 (+8) +11, +10, +15, +12, +13, +13 (May's takeover coincided with the Brexit referendum result which gave a boost to the right)
Johnson replaces May July 2019 - +1, +6, +2, -4, -5, -1 (+2) +8, +8, +11, +11, +10 (GE) (There was huge Brexit Party support under May that is annexed to the Tories by Johnson's appointment)
Truss replaces Johnson Sept 2022 - -4, -6, -6, -6, -9, -9 (-13) To follow!
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Post by jimjam on Oct 3, 2022 16:12:33 GMT
Shevii,
Agree and, as you suggest, sometimes the events impact on VI fade very quickly and polls revert so we never really know if YG was a genuine, shortlived, movement or an outlier.
In this case the impact has not waned so we can say that YG picked up early and it wasn't an outlier.
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Post by graham on Oct 3, 2022 16:15:37 GMT
I have another statistic polling jamboree for those who enjoy that sort of thing. I have had a look at the existence or otherwise of polling 'bounces' for new Prime Minsters. I have produced the monthly figures for the 6 months before and after each change (Gallup to 1997, all polls thereafter). The month of the change itself is in brackets as there were two PMs in that month. Minus figures are an opposition lead, plus figures a government lead. Pre-Truss they seem to me to fall into three camps: 1) The early ones - not much happens Macmillan replaces Eden June 1957 - -1,-5, -6, -11, -10, -9 (No poll) -8, -8. -19, -12, -11, -6 No bounce for Macmillan Douglas-Home replaces Macmillan Oct 1963 - -15, -11, -20, -18, -16, -16 (-12), -12, -8, -8, -9, -9, -12 Minimal bounce for Douglas-Home Callaghan replaces Wilson Apr 1976 - +2, +5, +1, +2, -5, -3, (+5), -3, -4, 0, -3, 0, -12 No bounce for Callaghan 2) Replacing a long serving PM who people had wearied of - a bounce (one of which proved game changing, the other temporary) Major replaces Thatcher Nov 1990 - -12, -16, -14, -13, -12, -12 (-4) +6, +5, +5, +5, +4, +1 Brown replaces Blair June 2007 - -3, -6, -7, -7, -7, -4 (0) +5, +6, +7, -2, -8, -9 3) Brexit affected - Bounces for May and Johnson, but in both cases Brexit was clearly a huge factor May replaces Cameron July 2016 - +8, +8, +3, +3, +4, +3 (+8) +11, +10, +15, +12, +13, +13 (May's takeover coincided with the Brexit referendum result which gave a boost to the right) Johnson replaces May July 2019 - +1, +6, +2, -4, -5, -1 (+2) +8, +8, +11, +11, +10 (GE) (There was huge Brexit Party support under May that is annexed to the Tories by Johnson's appointment) Truss replaces Johnson Sept 2022 - -4, -6, -6, -6, -9, -9 (-13) To follow! Macmillan replaced Eden early January 1957! |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 16:17:22 GMT
Oh dear. The inevitable cry of "Privatisation" when a system employed by the best Health Service in the World * is suggested for the NHS. Across the EU ,Government schemes provided the financing for only 28.2 % of all healthcare expenditure in the EU in 2019, while compulsory contributory health insurance schemes and compulsory medical saving accounts accounted for 51.5 %. 20.3" by "other funding agents" -including households **. In France 78.2% of funding is from Compulsory, contributory health insurance schemes ** The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system. * France-World Health Organization, Measuring Overall Health System Performance for 191 Countries ** Eurostat. Healthcare expenditure statistics. |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 3, 2022 16:18:41 GMT
1. The Old Poor Law which paid subsidies to poor households on the basis of family size came under great strain after 1780, esp in Southern rural ares, beacuse of harvest failures & massive population growth which exceeded anything experienced before or since.. Agricultural labouring families had to receive relief otherwise, to avoid starvation in famine or the winter when there was little agric work, they would have migrated: leaving farmers with insufficient labour in the spring/summer.
2. Poor rates were paid by all the propertied which allowed farmers to share the burden of winter or famine relief with those who did not need labourers. It was a racket for farmers and landlords.
3. The nearer poor rural communities were to towns or tom alternative employment, the more relief you had to give them to prevent migration and hence labour shortages.
4. Workhouses relected a new ideology, that of Political Economy, namely Less Eligibilty.Those on relief must lead less comfortable lives than those employed on the lowest wages. The workhouse ensured this & hence discouraged idleness. Welfare must not pay! The threat of the WH would force people to seek employment
5. In trade cycles in northern industrial regions, a donwturn meant mass unemployment: workhouses could not cope with the influx, not release such inmates as they housed fast enough, when the cycle turn upward. Hence, outdoor relief persisted in such regions & workhouses played a limited role.
6. In the post-1834 period the cost of poor relief in England fell in the South. Less eligibility worked for the hard-nosed political economists.
7. In the '30s and '40s one really cannot exaggerate the popular hatred of Workhouses: which put people in uniforms, badged inmates, and worst of all separated women and kids from their men.
8. One main reason the Chartists wanted Parliamentary power was to repeal the New Poor Law Act, which summed up what the people hated about political economy.
9. I cannot comment on the later period & to what degree popular views of workhouses were ameliorated. Before 1850 they were despised, feared & loathed.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Oct 3, 2022 16:19:16 GMT
I am disgusted that this level of violence is allowed to be shown on TV!!!!!!
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Post by alec on Oct 3, 2022 16:20:13 GMT
colin - "The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system." I think what's more out of date is the low level of taxes overall in the UK. That's the main reason we're suffering a poor health service.
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Post by alec on Oct 3, 2022 16:21:52 GMT
Meanwhile, while other governments and the EU mandate energy savings and are working hard on energy efficiency, in the UK, where our government doesn't think that kind of thing is the job of government, we get this - www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574 |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 16:22:09 GMT
Just for fun
The Labour majority on the R&W poll would be around 400. The Tory party could come comfortably fit in the back of two Ford transits.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 16:23:31 GMT
Macmillan replaced Eden early January 1957! You are absolutely right and I have corrected the numbers in my original post. Happily, makes no difference to the conclusion. In fact Macmillan polls worse than Eden. |
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eotw
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Post by eotw on Oct 3, 2022 16:28:57 GMT
I am disgusted that this level of violence is allowed to be shown on TV!!!!!! Best comment on Twitter Oooh Lordee... She was channelling peak 'Scary Mum' with that last "It was your idea, wasn't it?" I nearly owned up to it myself... |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 3, 2022 16:35:41 GMT
I am disgusted that this level of violence is allowed to be shown on TV!!!!!! God they really are creatures of the night aren't they. Fictional, monstrous creatures of the night that is. |
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eotw
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Post by eotw on Oct 3, 2022 16:41:03 GMT
colin - "The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system." I think what's more out of date is the low level of taxes overall in the UK. That's the main reason we're suffering a poor health service. Not just underfunding the NHS, the real chronic shortage is Adult Social Care - ie cuts to Local Government which are the least painful for Westminster - this underfunding causes huge problems for the NHS. Anecdote alert: Two weeks ago I was in Salisbury District Hospital (SDH) Day Surgery unit to have a bladder stone removed. Surgery was almost cancelled because they had no beds (on the day surgery unit!), even though I only required a bed for 2 hours. Unit was full of Bed Blockers and was being used as a regular ward even though it doesn't have the facilities. I was lucky to get surgery, others whose needs were a little more complex were cancelled. I use SDH as opposed to RUH Bath or Great Western Swindon because it is less busy than the others. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 16:43:23 GMT
Just to try to clear this up once and for all for you humourless lot, it was a joke and the target was the Tories. I volunteer for the role of UKPR's Mercian Sense of Humour Czar. This would entail adjudicating on when Mercian is exhibiting a genuine sense of humour and when he is instead being disingenuous and masking genuine prejudice with fake humour. In other words the motive is to offend and not amuse. The role entails real skill because Mercian is a master of disguise in these matters. I won't overplay the importance of the role, or offer it for prolonged debate, but when I think Mercian is being funny, I will like the post. When I think he isn't, the crossbat11 "like" will be noticeably absent. Two problems: 1/ What do we do is colin likes a post that you also like? 2/ What is the procedure if ole Pete posts a sensible post? I know no.2 is unlikely but still think you should give clear guidelines on both. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 16:44:01 GMT
oldnat“ I'm not going to argue.” Blimey!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 16:50:32 GMT
Across the EU ,Government schemes provided the financing for only 28.2 % of all healthcare expenditure in the EU in 2019, while compulsory contributory health insurance schemes and compulsory medical saving accounts accounted for 51.5 %. 20.3" by "other funding agents" -including households **. In France 78.2% of funding is from Compulsory, contributory health insurance schemes ** The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system. Surely the NHS is funded by an insurance scheme already? its called national insurance, and people already pay it compulsorily?
Are you saying private companies running such schemes and extracting a profit from them is what we need instead of the one already run by the state?
Maybe we could get round that by requiring all health providers in the Uk to be not for profit companies? Thats an interesting idea?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 16:51:55 GMT
Would it be excessively unfair of me to suggest that Keir Starmer's initial strategy was to not be Jeremy Corbyn and that brought a modest recovery in Labour's fortunes. Then he moved on to not being Boris Johnson, and that secured Labour consistent but modest poll leads. And now by the cunning plan of not being Liz Truss (with an able assist from Rachel Reeves in not being Kwasi Kwarteng) Labour are on for a landslide.
Or putting it another way, Governments lose elections more than oppositions win them.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 3, 2022 16:53:44 GMT
John Curtice on Times Radio about a half-hour ago said that the collapse in Tory polling has been faster than after Black Wednesday
(Also, Kwasi sounds a bit like Portillo to my ears)
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,617
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 16:53:54 GMT
Across the EU ,Government schemes provided the financing for only 28.2 % of all healthcare expenditure in the EU in 2019, while compulsory contributory health insurance schemes and compulsory medical saving accounts accounted for 51.5 %. 20.3" by "other funding agents" -including households **. In France 78.2% of funding is from Compulsory, contributory health insurance schemes ** The NHS must stay forever frozen in the aspic of its out of date funding system. Surely the NHS is funded by an insurance scheme already? its called national insurance, and people already pay it compulsorily?
Are you saying private companies running such schemes and extracting a profit from them is what we need instead of the one already run by the state?
Maybe we could get round that by requiring all health providers in the Uk to be not for profit companies? Thats an interesting idea?
The NHS is not funded by national insurance. When introduced it was claimed to pay for the old age pension (but that isn't true either). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 16:55:54 GMT
Meanwhile, while other governments and the EU mandate energy savings and are working hard on energy efficiency, in the UK, where our government doesn't think that kind of thing is the job of government, we get this - www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574Government has just set in place a scheme whereby energy companies are guaranteed however much prices rise, consumers will not see those rises but the energy companies will get their money. Why encourage a drop in demand which might now impact those windfall profits?
Its funny how the nation became exercised over a cut in higer tax rate, but hasnt started rioting over the failure to impose a windfall tax. Indeed to cement in law a process to claw back excess unexpected profits when they occur in any industry.
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Post by bardin1 on Oct 3, 2022 17:07:50 GMT
John Curtice on Times Radio about a half-hour ago said that the collapse in Tory polling has been faster than after Black Wednesday (Also, Kwasi sounds a bit like Portillo to my ears) It's collapsing at the same rate as the Russian front line in Ukraine - not sure if there is a connection? |
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Post by thylacine on Oct 3, 2022 17:12:52 GMT
Just for fun The Labour majority on the R&W poll would be around 400. The Tory party could come comfortably fit in the back of two Ford transits. They could make efficiency economies and offer up the spare space to the LibDem MPs if they agreed to go Dutch. |
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Post by hireton on Oct 3, 2022 17:13:57 GMT
Not sure if we have had this one from Savanta ComRes so posted in case not (25pt Labour lead):
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 3, 2022 17:21:57 GMT
Best PM
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 3, 2022 17:25:24 GMT
John Curtice on Times Radio about a half-hour ago said that the collapse in Tory polling has been faster than after Black Wednesday (Also, Kwasi sounds a bit like Portillo to my ears) It's collapsing at the same rate as the Russian front line in Ukraine - not sure if there is a connection? Well, if there is it might be bad news for Cons as an expert on the radio right now is saying that, somewhat surprisingly, Ukraine still have forward momentum, when normally you might have expected the Ruskies to fall back to better defended positions and hence slowing the advance |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 3, 2022 17:36:59 GMT
Not really surprising, at least it would have been very short
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 3, 2022 17:39:27 GMT
It won't matter what the Tories and especially Truss do now. Trust has been destroyed and I don't think there's any getting it back until they've completely reinvented themselves and that likely won't happen till after a GE defeat. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 3, 2022 17:39:38 GMT
Interesting comparison
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 17:43:13 GMT
It's collapsing at the same rate as the Russian front line in Ukraine - not sure if there is a connection? Well, if there is it might be bad news for Cons as an expert on the radio right now is saying that, somewhat surprisingly, Ukraine still have forward momentum, when normally you might have expected the Ruskies to fall back to better defended positions and hence slowing the advance I know sod all about war but this has all the feel of dominos collapsing. I imagine that poorly trained and injured soldiers retreating is likely to cause panic with the next line of poorly prepared, under resourced soldiers. Long may it last. |
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Post by jen on Oct 3, 2022 17:50:43 GMT
Unusual to have a flurry of simultaneous polls that allow an average Scots crossbreak VI to be calculated for a large sample (N=956). The weighted average for the 7 polls is - SNP 45% : SLab 31% : SCon 12% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 1% Net : Indy supporting MPs 51 (+3):Union supporting MPs 8 (-3) Based on: Indy supporting parties 48%, union supporting parties 50%. Good old FPTP. It would be wise to consider that a huge percentage of SLab voters support independence. |
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