19-Nov-2021 : CON 36 / LAB 34 / GREEN 10 / LIBDEM 7

[lululemonmustdobetter]

barbara

My biggest concern is that far from returning to stability, we are actually only just at the start of a period of fundamental political/economic/social upheaval, but one which is not moving in a progressive direction. Whilst I like to think that most people at least aspire to be good, our history does not reflect well on us. As a species when faced by conditions of scarcity and threats to our existence etc we don't tend to sit round the campfire and sing 'come by are', we are more likely fight light cats and dogs. One of the few things I agree with Johnson is point he comment made at COP26 that that civilisation can regress and 'progress' etc is not set in stone. Currently I don't think in 20-30 years our western model of liberal democracy will be the dominant one nor seen as the most successful, and I fear our own societies/system will be a less kinder and charitable one than today.

Faith in our system has been significantly impaired by the events of the past decade and prior to that the failure to ensure all areas benefited from the economic model. Coupled to this is the adoption of highly socially divisive political tactics by the right and growth of a corresponding approach adopted by elements of the left. I'm not sure these factors will leave the political system for some time to come, and even if the majority do seek more stability events may prevent this from happening.

[steve]

During a select committee hearing culture Secretary Nadine Dorries said
 she did not hear the interview ( in which she said the BBC wouldn't survive the decade , and she did not says that despite being quoted as saying so in the Times.

She says she is “very sure the BBC will be here in 10 years’ time”. The point she was making was that you cannot predict the future, she says."

Of course that's not what she said about brexit!

Mind you her connection to reality when it comes to Brexit is shall we say tenuous.

Earlier this year Dorries said that Brexit has delivered 180k jobs in Hartlepool

The last census shows there are only 92,028 residents living in the town!

Two jobs each now there's a Brexit bonus!

And we let these people have sharp things.

[steve]

"One Conservative MP told The Times: “The prime minister desperately needs a big moment where everyone says, ‘boom, he’s back’

Have they considered spontaneous combustion?

[js]

Nov 23, 2021 15:51:58 GMT @tw said:

[1] FPTP has it flaws but I'm not convinced the kind of weak, unstable multi-party coalitions we see in some countries are 'better' (see also 1920s Germany).

The Netherlands have had the same Prime Minister since 2010, Mark Rutte. Prior to him Jan Peter Balkenade was in power for 8 years.

In Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel has been in office since 2005. Her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder ruled for 7 years and before him Helmut Kohl for 16.

I don't think there is much of a case for multi-party coalitions being inherently weak or unstable.

[barbara]

Nov 23, 2021 16:10:53 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

barbara

My biggest concern is that far from returning to stability, we are actually only just at the start of a period of fundamental political/economic/social upheaval, but one which is not moving in a progressive direction. 

I'm more optimistic than you. I'm a historian and history tells us that while the world swings between progressive and regressive periods, the overall ultimate direction is ALWAYS progressive. Who would have predicted in 1939 after a decade of the growth of fascism and dictatorships with a war looming ahead that this period of enormous world wide upheaval, death and destruction would herald the longest period of world peace, growing prosperity and social progress and political consensus. 
After the war people wanted a period of calm and progress. After 30/40 years of that the younger people who didn't experience the darkness before got fed up with consensus and wanted to see change. And there are always opportunist populists ready to take advantage of those feelings. But they're only successful when the public mood is ripe for it.

So yes we have been in the middle of a regressive period for over a decade and a lot of damage is being done at the moment but I am confident this will not last for ever and perhaps may already have peaked.  Time will tell which of us is nearer to the mark.

[Deleted]

Nov 23, 2021 16:22:12 GMT js said:

Nov 23, 2021 15:51:58 GMT @tw said:

[1] FPTP has it flaws but I'm not convinced the kind of weak, unstable multi-party coalitions we see in some countries are 'better' (see also 1920s Germany).

I don't think there is much of a case for multi-party coalitions being inherently weak or unstable.

Just as well I didn't say 'inherently' then (although Italy over the last few decades would IMO come fairly close - you can of course disagree). Mixed bag for sure and I would certainly agree that 'coalition governments' have worked in the recent past in Netherlands and Germany, but in the future? TBC.

Canada is IMO a good example of a functional minority government[1] (of either colour, although Trudeau has got a lot more done that CON did).

For UK then the coalition of 2010-15 worked OK (from the point of view of 'stable'). HoC 17-19 was IMO 'weak and unstable' but possibly somewhat 'unique circumstances'? 

[1] With that in mind then a useful read (that I wouldn't totally agree with WRT to assumption on SNP and missing out the internal faction risk within LAB). Seems to be have been written with the conclusion first but it does cover a lot of 'process' issues that some might find interesting.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/wargaming-a-minority-labour-government-next-election-starmer

[lululemonmustdobetter]

barbara

'I'm a historian..' ditto by background. My phd supervisor was a big fan of the enlightenment and had very teleological view of history, one which I was/am highly sceptical of. While a western-centric of history since 1789 may support the progress argument, I am not so sure that overall World History does. History also tells us of civilisation and political system that have collapsed. I read a book by Paul Kriwaczek, Babylon Mesopotamia and the Birth of Civilisation, a while back. One of the observation he made that has stuck with me, is over a period of 2000 years in the region you can find proto examples of all forms of modern govt/system. Plato viewed politics as going through of a cycle - monarchy-democracy-tyranny (I may not have got that right would have to dig out my copy of the Republic). However, in my heart I do hope you are right and I am wrong - its just my optimism has taken a very heavy knocking over the past few years.

[barbara]

lulemon. Me too but I need to keep believing things will get better.

[barbara]

sorry lululemon

[alec]

barbara - how great to see another fundamental optimist on here! Many may be surprised I say this, but they shouldn't be. I've always been an optimist in terms of the general direction of politics. We progressives will always win, in the end, because it's the only way to live, to be honest. Who wants to be perpetually frightened by the authoritarian right, who have no answers once you strip away the bigotry and the manipulation.

[barbara]

Nov 23, 2021 17:55:11 GMT alec said:

 Who wants to be perpetually frightened by the authoritarian right, who have no answers once you strip away the bigotry and the manipulation.

or indeed the authoritarian left. Both extremes have an awful lot in common. If you go so far around the political spectrum you meet the opposite lot coming the other way! 

[Deleted]

barbara and lululemonmustdobetter

While the general tendency of history is progression, it is certainly not linear (e.g. the abandoned irrigation system in Dahomey, the very long wait to recognise the need to move the harness from the neck of the horse to the chest, the missed opportunity of the industrial revolution in China during the Ming dynasty, etc.).

Furthermore, Wallerstein (I don't agree with his word system theory, but it is a different matter) rightly gave the title to one of his methodological chapters: "Does India exist?", and he was also right in his assertion that history is written from today.

[Deleted]

Nov 23, 2021 16:44:23 GMT @tw said:

Canada is IMO a good example of a functional minority government[1] (of either colour, although Trudeau has got a lot more done that CON did).

Interestingly Philip Tetlock: Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can We Know?:uses (among other examples) Canada as an example to explain the difference between the hedgehog and fox approaches (whether Canada would disintegrate or stays together).

[Deleted]

Nov 23, 2021 19:02:59 GMT @laszlo said:

I'm more familiar with the ancient parable being used for styles of leadership.

archive.canadianbusiness.com/leadership/what-kind-of-leader-are-you-fox-or-hedgehog/

The relevance of UK to Canada WRT to running functional minority governments is of course Scotland as a proxy for Quebec, IndyRef1 and 2, Clarity Act, etc. The main parties now just ignore Bloc Québécois and have managed to have fairly functional minority governments - one for Starmer to ponder in a 'plausible scenario' I've covered before. However, might I suggest anyone wishing a lengthy discussion going over old ground on Scottish independence 'gets a room' (ie sets Scotland up as a thread in the 'Issues Specific' section). Using the parable for a country then I expect folks could apply very subjective criteria and historical context[1] so I'll pass on that if you don't mind. Trudeau more of a 'fox' type (on the international stage) but likes of Chrétien or Martin overseeing periods more comparable to a 'hedgehog'.

After Boris's 'Peppa Pig' episode then the collective did ponder some comparisons to Julia Donaldson's books: 'The Gruffalo' (Rishi or Reeves as the mouse, Boris or Starmer as the Gruffalo) and 'Room on the Broom' (with Boris as the witch). Truss might also see herself in 'The Snail and the Whale'. I'd go as far to say UK is World Leader when it comes to children fictional writing and Boris has made many a contribution to that genre over the years! 

[1] US had/has 'Caliexit' metro.co.uk/2018/01/17/new-california-declares-independence-become-51st-us-state-7236719/ 
but you'd need to check if the leaders of that movement were sent to jail or not and I leave it to you to decide if US or EU qualify as fox or hedgehog (past/present or future)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Nov 23, 2021 19:55:01 GMT @tw said:

Nov 23, 2021 19:02:59 GMT @laszlo said:

 might I suggest anyone wishing a lengthy discussion going over old ground on Scottish independence 'gets a room' (ie sets Scotland up as a thread in the 'Issues Specific' section).

I would very much disagree. Forays south of the border by the Tartan Army have always been integral part of the site.

[davwel]

I was about to post on two more political messages coming through our letter-box today, one of which has a claim about numbers of trees planted that looks silly to me.

Then I spotted the Trevors urging Scots to get their own room. I don`t think that is a good idea meantime, though I wouldn`t rule it out for ever.

What was interesting to me about one of these messages in the style of a tabloid newspaper, was that it was jointly produced by the SNP and SGreens. However most of its content is from the SNP.

The second message, a small card badged by the SNP, had the claim "we have planted 44 million trees in just two years". I presume this means that the SGov has organised this impressive-for-none-foresters number. But in reality this could well be an underestimate for Scotland, and I doubt if anyone knows an accurate figure.

And the same applies to figures for tree planting put out by the parties in England, or claiming to be UK totals.

Ironically, and what triggered me thinking of posting, our "evening" paper, arrived at the same time as the leaflets, had an article saying that the Forestry Commission nursery nr Burghead (Moray) was producing 7 million saplings a year for planting, and was planning to expand. And a big nursery in East Lothian near my son`s home claims to produce 30 million trees a year. Besides these major producers, some estates still have nurseries, and private forestry companies also are producing their own strains of tiny saplings.

[hireton]

No10 and No11 having a public briefing spat:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/23/treasury-pm-johnson-no-10-shakeup

[baggy07]

Faith in our system has been significantly impaired by the events of the past decade and prior to that the failure to ensure all areas benefited from the economic model. Coupled to this is the adoption of highly socially divisive political tactics by the right and growth of a corresponding approach adopted by elements of the left. I'm not sure these factors will leave the political system for some time to come, and even if the majority do seek more stability events may prevent this from happening.
Barbara.

I believe you have a point about not all areas benefitting from the Economic Model, but whose fault is that, how many areas of the country felt a decent improvement in wages, infrastructure, number of council houses, quality of life etc between 1997 and 2010 after 13 years of (so called ) Progressive government, for many in the middle class or House owning working class, maybe, but if you were struggling or in poverty in 1997 it is likely you still were in 2010 and perhaps that is why a sizable minority either went for the Corbyn Left or believe in a populist right.
Perhaps Centrist Liberal Democracy is the best we can get but if approx 30 % of the population is left behind many not voting, and the genie came out the lamp ie the Left saw the possibility of real change under Corbyn, both sets of these voters will not be sated by Starmers middle ground. Finally lets imagine Labour win in 2024, under this leader will Britain be a much changed place in 2029 or pretty similar to what it will be if the Tories win in 2024 instead.

[js]

Nov 23, 2021 16:44:23 GMT @tw said:

Nov 23, 2021 16:22:12 GMT js said:

I don't think there is much of a case for multi-party coalitions being inherently weak or unstable.

Just as well I didn't say 'inherently' then (although Italy over the last few decades would IMO come fairly close - you can of course disagree). Mixed bag for sure and I would certainly agree that 'coalition governments' have worked in the recent past in Netherlands and Germany, but in the future? TBC.

I don’t disagree, I interpreted, perhaps wrongly which I apologise for in advance, that you were equating FPTP with strong governments and PR with weak multi party coalitions. I disagree with that. Both systems can lead to strong and weak governments and I don’t find a correlation in either.

If it helps the discussion it was the way you phrased the sentence “FPTP has it flaws but I'm not convinced the kind of weak, unstable multi-party coalitions we see in some countries are 'better' ”. That seems to imply that these unstable multi-party coalitions are a result of an electoral system as opposed to any other reason. I disagree with that.

[Deleted]

lululemonmustdobetter

The book I referred to uses examples such as the predictions of collapse of the North Korean, Cuban, Nigerian regimes, the Japanese crisis after the stock market collapse, etc. And yes one of them is Canada. So staying together and followed by economic crisis or economic upsurge and Canada disintegrating followed up by economic crisis or upsurge. And then the predictive scenarios.

The book is not very well written for the general public, but the methodology is very systematic (hedgehogs versus foxes in prediction), and uses a very good timescale (although the Japanese example could have used, for example, Dore for illustrating the point (he died a couple of years ago, and I forgot how many times he changed his predictions about Japan since the 1970s).

I think it is one of the great books (inspire of weaknesses) on a critical evaluation of political predictions.

[js]

www.newscientist.com/article/2298455-uk-visa-scheme-for-prize-winning-scientists-receives-no-applications/

This is a bit embarrassing but also worrying. I remember not that long ago the UK being a destination of choice for scientists and researchers everywhere. Perhaps not that significant as no doubt many others will be arriving with other visa options but nonetheless not a good sign.

[oldnat]

Nov 23, 2021 14:06:50 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

the world is your lobster.

Lobsters, it has now been established, can also feel pain.

[neilj]

Reports that a dozen letters of no confidence in Johnson submitted by tory MPs. Around 54 required to trigger a leadership election

[oldnat]

EOR

While I have, thankfully, forgotten most of your snide remark about Scotland, I do remember the bit about it being "under God".

Surely that is a more accurate description of England, with its Established Church and CoE bishops in HoL to legislate, not only for England, but also to control us unruly heathens?

In other words, if you are going to make ludicrous comments, kindly ensure that they have a vague relationship with reality.

[jib]

Nov 23, 2021 21:56:01 GMT oldnat said:

Nov 23, 2021 14:06:50 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

the world is your lobster.

Lobsters, it has now been established, can also feel pain.

Poor things.
Of course they can.
I like to fish and dispatch the poor things,  but I'd never boil a fish alive.

[js]

Nov 23, 2021 22:18:12 GMT jib said:

Nov 23, 2021 21:56:01 GMT oldnat said:

Lobsters, it has now been established, can also feel pain.

Poor things.
Of course they can.
I like to fish and dispatch the poor things,  but I'd never boil a fish alive.

I’m convinced, as an inveterate carnivore, that meat eating in general and the way we treat animals in particular will be discussed by future generations in the same way that we discuss the Romans’ love of blood sports or the Aztec predilection of sacrifices.

The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there.

[oldnat]

Nov 23, 2021 22:34:22 GMT js said:

Nov 23, 2021 22:18:12 GMT jib said:

So is the future. At the Restaurant At The End Of The Universe, you will be able to discuss the cut of meat that you would like from the sentient cow offering her parts for your delectation. 

History has no "direction" (Sorry Barbara and others). That belief in historical inevitability should have died with Whig and Marxist historians.

[alurqa]

Nov 23, 2021 21:56:01 GMT oldnat said:

Lobsters, it has now been established, can also feel pain.

I seem to remember lobsters have an interesting life expectancy from an actuary's perspective. They don't get weaker as they get older, and apparently only die due to accidents. A very unusual trait.

www.longevity.technology/longevity-of-the-lobster-and-the-implications-for-humanity/

[alec]

Hard to recall that back in September, all the commentary was about Johsnon's 'brutal' reshuffle and how he had a grip of iron on his party.
If it is true that Tory MPs are sending in letters of no confidence, that really is quite a remarkable turnaround in fortunes, but nothing that I find remotely unexpected for Johnson. He has always been a complete liar and a bullsh!tter of the highest order, with the only surprise to me being that so many people don't seem to see through this. For Johnson, when it unravels, it really unravels, but it's rather interesting to see the media now also reporting statements from Conservative MPsblaming No 11 for penny pinching, while No 11 is blaming the PM for hype and incompetence.

[jib]

Nov 23, 2021 23:11:38 GMT alec said:

Hard to recall that back in September, all the commentary was about Johsnon's 'brutal' reshuffle and how he had a grip of iron on his party.
If it is true that Tory MPs are sending in letters of no confidence, that really is quite a remarkable turnaround in fortunes, but nothing that I find remotely unexpected for Johnson. He has always been a complete liar and a bullsh!tter of the highest order, with the only surprise to me being that so many people don't seem to see through this. For Johnson, when it unravels, it really unravels, but it's rather interesting to see the media now also reporting statements from Conservative MPsblaming No 11 for penny pinching, while No 11 is blaming the PM for hype and incompetence.

I think Johnson has burnt so many bridges within his own party, this doesn't come as suprise.

I have posted previously that he will be dispatched quickly and without much sympathy when the time comes.