oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 9, 2021 0:11:30 GMT
CB11
The equivalent Scots figures from that R&W poll (N=96) are (changes from 6 Dec in brackets)
SNP 39% (+5) SCon 9% (- 22) : SLab 23% (-1) : SLD 18% (+12) : SGP 8% (+4) : REFUK 3%(+1) : Oth 0%
(4% missing which suggests all 7 categories at X.499% - or a cock up!)
There may be an indication of revulsion at the Tories over Xmasgate, but I wouldn't rely on it lasting.
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Post by jib on Dec 9, 2021 0:17:09 GMT
tancredUkraine gave up an arsenal of nuclear weapons and was given specific sovereignty assurances in the Budapest Memorandum. You are forgiving Russian aggression, which left unchecked, will extend to more annexation elsewhere.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 9, 2021 0:23:44 GMT
tancred You are forgiving Russian aggression, which left unchecked, will extend to more annexation elsewhere. Pity no one managed to stop the UK doing precisely the same around the world.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 9, 2021 0:31:34 GMT
"The Times is reporting tonight that there was a second ‘raucous’ Christmas party held at Conservative Party Headquarters on 14th Dec. This story continues to run and run." (ITV)
Con HQ is not, of course, part of the Crown Estate, so that legal loophole would not be available to the participants, should Cressida Dick move off her arse to apply the law.
There now seems to be a significant shortfall in the dead cat supply at Westminster.
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Post by eor on Dec 9, 2021 1:08:12 GMT
Not questioning the salience of the story, once Ant & Dec are involved it's clearly gone well beyond the bubble. As I said last night, I think this story spins itself best with no help at all, so I will just make a couple of tangential observations on the polling that's been posted here so far;
- (At least) 8% of respondents think the rules were definitely broken at a party they're not certain actually happened - 90% of the people saying Johnson should resign thought he should resign anyway - 33% say they are less likely to follow COVID rules...but no baseline on whether those people were likely to follow them before this story. As our former host would have reminded us, "more/less likely" polls are borderline useless without that frame of reference - the point (@jim jam I think?) about the R@W swing being fuelled by CON-->DK - is that actually the case or are we assuming that because it's what's been the case in other recent scandal stories that have impacted VI?
Most of which gets to the same point - we don't know what these numbers mean yet. Turning point #2 around for example, the 10% of voters now saying Johnson should quit who didn't say that before, who they are is pretty important, if they're CON 2019 voters that's a rather different short-term crisis to navigate than if they are people who voted against him last time and have simply hardened their opposition to him now. Likewise whilst we can't say whether the "less likely" result is actually meaningful, it's quite possible that it could indeed be people who'd have gone along with new rules but now won't as a result of this, which would complicate things in any number of ways.
The excitement and frustration of snap polling!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2021 1:27:23 GMT
- the point (@jim jam I think?) about the R@W swing being fuelled by CON-->DK - is that actually the case or are we assuming that because it's what's been the case in other recent scandal stories that have impacted VI? You can check for yourself if you open up the data tables. Latest poll redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-8-december-2021/Previous poll: redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-december-2021/DKs (eg row 39 in the VI sheet) from GE'19 result (columns X and Y) CON: 20% (+7) LAB: 8% (+2) There has been a slight increase in net swing CON'19 to RUK and LAB VI but only 2% of CON'19 have moved to LDEM VI however in their latest then 0% (-6) of LDEM'19 are now stating CON VI. So lots of small -ve moves for CON VI adding up to the overall change. Signed The Royal 'we' (who don't make assumptions when 'we' can check the info for ourselves)
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2021 1:30:47 GMT
Most of which gets to the same point - we don't know what these numbers mean yet. Turning point #2 around for example, the 10% of voters now saying Johnson should quit who didn't say that before, who they are is pretty important, if they're CON 2019 voters that's a rather different short-term crisis to navigate than if they are people who voted against him last time and have simply hardened their opposition to him now. And to what extent the effect persists. What’s the decay rate?
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2021 1:42:03 GMT
Well, Cummings did say that Boris likes things a bit chaotic.. Varys: What do we have left once we abandon the lie? Chaos. A gaping pit waiting to swallow us all.Little finger: Chaos isn't a pit, chaos is a ladder:www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpybogxYGsIWhen you play the game of thrones, you win or you die[1]. Boris is no longer a winner or capable of winning next GE (IMO) and switching to one of Dom's favourite movie quotes then: You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain
If Boris had never come out of hospital last Spring the former would have applied and his legacy would have been the PM who 'Got Brexit Done' but now he's into the latter and not the dark knight we need right now. [1] Boris has more than a passing resemblance to Robert Baratheon IMO (in girth and the way he conducts his life). Although Carrie Antoinette (aka Princess Nuts Nuts) is no Cersei and will not take over the throne as Queen Regent for Wilfred. The whole court of Boris will collapse and she'll be out on her ear with Wilfred and Dilyn the dog. Boris may look up against it, but look how Tories were doing against Miliband mid-term and how that ended up. (Took quite a bit of press support though). (Top channelling of GoT btw).
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Post by eor on Dec 9, 2021 1:52:59 GMT
On the issue of whether people should resign/be sacked for attending the party... there's another potential complication that could make this aspect very messy, apart from the Crown property angle that's been discussed already.
This might sound fatuous but please read it through before deriding the relevance in terms of how things will go. The distinction of what constitutes a party is potentially a lot harder to nail down in a central London office than it is pretty much anywhere else in England, at least to the satisfaction of an employment tribunal. For a whole array of London people I know, drinks in the office at the end of the week is a thing that just happens from time to time - the director lays on a few bottles of champagne for the team for a valuable account landed, a client sends crates of beer as thanks for a successful project go-live. Often this kind of thing is either ad hoc around people's desks or sent by management in a "please come to the Conference Room at 4pm" email invite. No-one drives to work so it's an option that consistently exists in a way it doesn't elsewhere.
I'm not trying to say this should change our perception of what is assumed to have happened, I don't think it does. But I think it potentially changes the legal situation and thus the freedom to act to deal with the situation. If someone travels to location x purely to attend a party, that would seem a very clear breach of COVID rules. If they're sitting at their desk working and gradually a bunch of drinks and food get passed around and they have some, no chance can you fire them for breaching COVID rules. So in terms of what happens to people who did attend, key factors are going to be exactly where this happened, how they were told about it, whether such things were particularly unusual, whether they felt they were invited socially or being asked to attend as part of their job... it might all turn out to have the simplicity that the vengeful would like but my suspicion is it probably won't!
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Post by eor on Dec 9, 2021 2:00:45 GMT
I suppose you have to respect her candour - the problem isn't lying but lying about things you'll get easily found out on :-)
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Post by moby on Dec 9, 2021 5:17:32 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 9, 2021 5:55:17 GMT
Old nat. Of course some of the leading proponents of "English" aggressive imperialism around the world were Scottish. Scots proved particularly adept at the slave trade and killing indigenous peoples throughout the world and bringing the enlightenment of religious bigotry to countries with their own alternatives and didn't request our version. That isn't also to say their more positive contribution in terms of education, construction science and technology wasn't also substantial along with the millions of people who can claim Scottish ancestry in former colonial countries.
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Post by moby on Dec 9, 2021 6:17:56 GMT
On the issue of whether people should resign/be sacked for attending the party... there's another potential complication that could make this aspect very messy, apart from the Crown property angle that's been discussed already. This might sound fatuous but please read it through before deriding the relevance in terms of how things will go. The distinction of what constitutes a party is potentially a lot harder to nail down in a central London office than it is pretty much anywhere else in England, at least to the satisfaction of an employment tribunal. For a whole array of London people I know, drinks in the office at the end of the week is a thing that just happens from time to time - the director lays on a few bottles of champagne for the team for a valuable account landed, a client sends crates of beer as thanks for a successful project go-live. Often this kind of thing is either ad hoc around people's desks or sent by management in a "please come to the Conference Room at 4pm" email invite. No-one drives to work so it's an option that consistently exists in a way it doesn't elsewhere. I'm not trying to say this should change our perception of what is assumed to have happened, I don't think it does. But I think it potentially changes the legal situation and thus the freedom to act to deal with the situation. If someone travels to location x purely to attend a party, that would seem a very clear breach of COVID rules. If they're sitting at their desk working and gradually a bunch of drinks and food get passed around and they have some, no chance can you fire them for breaching COVID rules. So in terms of what happens to people who did attend, key factors are going to be exactly where this happened, how they were told about it, whether such things were particularly unusual, whether they felt they were invited socially or being asked to attend as part of their job... it might all turn out to have the simplicity that the vengeful would like but my suspicion is it probably won't! In my dept, (MOJ) last year the rules and expectations of behaviour were crystal clear. We were a Govmt dept having to manage prisons, probation and administer justice during a pandemic. Our priorities were protecting the public and managing risk while attempting to stop the spread of COVID in prisons. We were/are still on rotas, (not me though...retired a couple of months ago) which strictly control how many people are in an office, prison or court at any one time. We even had desks removed from offices to reduce footfall and numbers and create greater social distancing. MAPPA, risk meetings, Parole Hearings, prison interviews all done on Microsoft teams or by video link, as were many Court hearings. The thought of an office party of any sort at that time was the last thing on our minds. I just don't understand how the culture could be so different in another Govmt dept or at Downing Street. We were in no doubt of boundaries and it was clear from the top our role at that time was to protect the public, service users and our colleagues. No one was even thinking about a Christmas party, bringing food and drink in etc..... but if they were sanctions would have been swift and severe. They say the fish rots from the head and Johnson isn't a rules man, even though he likes a bit of cosi play especially if he can look grand by dressing up as a policeman. It's possible therefore the nearer you got to the 'Sun King' in the centre, the more blurred the boundaries became? Although I could be totally wrong of course and the reality is the Govmt is currently running like a well oiled machine taking us away from COVID into the sunny brexit uplands.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 6:33:00 GMT
Some positive Omicron news from Pfizer, wh have said today that three doses appear to substantially elevate antibody levels that leads to neutralization of the new variant. This is data generated from blood test of people after their booster dose, so this starts to give some genuine reassurance that while Omicron is clearly a problem, it is something that remains containable. This evidence also supports, in my view, policies of more aggressive public health measures. If there had been substantial vaccine escape and the booster dose was less likely to protect recipients, it would be difficult to justify harder containment measures, as these would really only be delaying the inevitable. But we are now getting indication that the booster dose gives a much better protection than the double dose, so the idea of playing for time to maximise triple jabs now makes clear sense. Alec, we had exacly the same announcements after the first vaccine dose, and then the second vaccine dose. The head of pfizer was interviewed on R4 about a week ago and asked specifically about the third dose. He said he expected it would act the same as previous doses, and the effect would wear off after three months, just the same. R4 just said pfizer expect a fourth dose will be necessary. Great for sales and their profitability. After that dose, well, look forward to 5,6,7, at three monthly intervals. However trying to so warp the human immune system may have serious other health consequences. You taked about immune imprinting on the wrong pattern, and if there is any way to do it, this would be it.
The reason why this will always happen is because no vaccine generates permanently high antibody levels. Your body stops doing this once the antigen has been removed. It stores the ability to make more fast, but it doesnt keep it circulating in the blood.
Thats why government policy has failed. airborn viruses are inhaled, infect cells directly beside the airway, can spread directly from cell to cell and cause local infections without antibody able to intervene, and very fast. The significant point here is it a fast spreader, which likely means internally as well as externally. Past immunity means you get on the job fast and prevent it spreading within the body and becoming serious, but cannot stop initial infection. Killer t cells are needed to remove the infected cells, which have been little talked about during this epidemic but I did notice more references to them recently. All this measuring of antibodies is just going into a greengrocers and counting their apples to tell how many oranges they have. Although apples are good to have too, just not if you are wanting an orange.
It is deeply disturbing that medics are unwiliing to accept we need to get used to boostingn our immunity by being infected. It has always been the right strategy to isolate high risk people but let everyone else get on with their lives normaly.
So far government has delaed the inevitable removal of restrictions by a year. Thats a year lost of eveyones lives. I deeply resent this loss and the cost which I will suffer in taxes for the rest of my life. While extra people will have died because this has been delierately kept going. Government set out on a plan they expected would halt the deaths, first by lockdown and then permanently by vaccination. This simply failed, and keeping it going has made the outcome worse not better. Its totally a disaster in management.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 9, 2021 6:40:12 GMT
Danny Pfizer is around 90% effective after three months so I think it a tad unlikely that their ceo would have said anything even vaguely resembling this. Being less effective against a new variant isn't " wearing off".
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 6:56:31 GMT
Alec, The consideration of compulsory vaccination, and stricter controls over the lives of the vaccine refuseniks, is now here. I leave it to the elected politicians. The risk with compulsory vaccinations is if there are future bad consequences, then government will become liable to pay compensation. I outlined above how giving people massive doses of the wrong vaccine might cause imprinting on the wrong pattern. The blood clotting from AZ might in fact be a ocnsequence of vaccinators being instructed to use the wrong injecting technique, which has caused the problem. Although medics have gone along with a vaccination campaign, the lessons of history where experimental vaccines have caused later medical disasters make them very concerned about making them compulsory rather than an informed choice by the patient. It creates legal liability. I have argued the vaccination campaign has reached a stage where it is delaying the ending of covid. Not saving lives, increasing the chance if hgh risk people being infected because vaccination will not eradicate covid but instead keep it in genera circulation for longer. We may end up with class actions in the future when this is proven, as to why government imposed compulsory vaccination which caused the deaths of their loved ones. It would make sense if places like Rotterdam have become world centres of spread of new strains. Spread at ports is traditional, for obvious reasons that cargo has to be shifted and people interact in the process. Maybe this has been under estimated concentrating on air travel. Danny Guilty until proved innocent. Sounds like a good socialist principle. Isnt that how the Uk legal system works? if the police suspect you of something they lock you up until some considerable time later you are granted a trial to test if you are innocent, and if found innocent are released? The wait to a trial in the Uk has been increasing steadily for years.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 7:07:52 GMT
Bantams, dont know where he gets his info(though he mentions sources in the vids), but Dr John Campell has been publishing videos about the epidemic throughout and they have quite a following now. Someone posted one on the covid thread, but obviously you missed it as it wasnt mentioned here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Paq17X6ucQHe has a lot of detailed info about the SA cases. In particular that 3/4 of covid hospital admissions are because of some other disease, not because of covid. They just happen to have it. This must also be the case in the Uk because about 2% of people under 60 have had covid for the last month or two, and 1% for a couple more months before that. The other important fact he mentioned is that people ill with covid in hospital have all been less ill than previous patients. Specifically he mentioned less need for oxygen and most being immediately placed on steroids to limit e body's over reaction. You only do this once the disease has reached the stage of already killing the covid and this implies people are surviving at home until a later stage in the disease process, so the previous stages were milder even if they eventually end up there. Also shorter stays in hospital.
the Uk has already experienced shorter hospita stays too.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 9, 2021 7:13:59 GMT
Danny No that isn't how the UK system works. Police detention is normally hours not days.
The decision to remand in custody pending trial is the courts not the police based on recommendations from the crown prosecution service.
Arguably many so remanded are because of lack of funds or permanent address which is unacceptable.
Many thousands dealt with eventually by custodial sentence shouldn't have received a custodial term in the first place.
The delays in a trial are primarily down to inadequate funding for services by the UK government and substantial cuts in provision.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2021 7:21:58 GMT
Did you happen to see Bingham’s recent critique of the Civil Service in the Times, Col.? I did Carfrew. Damning and depressing Indeed. It’s a bit frightening how few scientists in government, and all the inertia, the focus on avoiding blame, promoting the wrong people, but this has a certain inevitability about it unless things are put in place to stop it happening. Happened in education too, and the arts as I discovered. I saw lots of talented people getting sidelined, or worse. But the way things are now, the pace of change and the difficulty of the problems means this is going to be more and more of an issue and a lot of the people Bingham is on about need to be bypassed really.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2021 7:24:39 GMT
Bantams, dont know where he gets his info(though he mentions sources in the vids), but Dr John Campell has been publishing videos about the epidemic throughout and they have quite a following now. Someone posted one on the covid thread, but obviously you missed it as it wasnt mentioned here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Paq17X6ucQCampbell’s quite big on Vitamin D too, IIRC?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 9, 2021 7:27:56 GMT
With reports of other parties coming to light and the willingness of people to leak information this story is going to run and run. Pippa Crerar has been a star in this and is still looking for more sources can see why she won Political Reporter of the Year this year
Excellent question here
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 7:33:42 GMT
Varys: What do we have left once we abandon the lie? Chaos. A gaping pit waiting to swallow us all.Little finger: Chaos isn't a pit, chaos is a ladder:When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die[1]. Boris is no longer a winner or capable of winning next GE The lesson of game of thrones is the weak guy who looked like the loser wins in the end. Not sure that works in real life. In the slightly shorter term, the most devious and rutheless stays at the top for longest. Johnson has always said he opposes covid restrictions. He is perfectly capable, once it becomes clear restrictions were the wrong strategy, of distancing himself from them. Saying it was a cabinet decision and he was simply doing his best to make the cabinet decision work in the interests of the nation and doing his best in the job. In other words, repudiate the blame. Simmilary he is perfectly capable of repudiating Brexit and becoming a born again remainer. And his justifications for doing so would be he accepted the will of the people as any good politician must. Blame brexit on Gove, Rees-Mogg, and Cummings. That's a swing of 22%, compared to a swing of about 6-7% in GB polls, which would imply the swing to Lab in many other regions must be significantly below the national one, and would also have the Tories doing about 6 points worse in West Mids than they managed in the 1997 GE when Labour had a vast polling lead. I appreciate you are querying the credibility of a particular poll because it contradicts wider information, but on the general point of whether huge swings are possible, they absolutely are. The main factor suppressng such swings is FPP elections, plus fear of a wasted vote. In by elections in particular, fear of a wasted vote goes away since the result wont change the government. And sometimes the campaign and feedback on which candidate is the best chalenger allows people to get behind them and cause a shoc overturn.
The importance is that this isnt simpy a protest. It is reflecting how people really feel about the governing party (parties) and would rather someone else. Real support for the two main parties is wafer thin for many people and its just a choice between devil A and devil B. Each vies to show the other unfit to govern, so shouldnt be surprised if voters beleve them on this that both are unfit. But with such weak suport, massive swings do become possible given a real cause. UK political order is very brittle.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 9, 2021 7:44:24 GMT
Even the Telegraph is turning against Johnson now
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 9, 2021 7:45:27 GMT
Carfrew
You obviously missed the Great Mercian Insurgency on UKPR. 'West Midlands' is now 'West Mercia'.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 9, 2021 7:47:43 GMT
What a shambles! Blundering from one self-inflicted crisis to the next. English cricket or the government?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 7:51:14 GMT
In my dept, (MOJ) last year the rules and expectations of behaviour were crystal clear. Yes. I think this is a big problem for the government. Absolutely no one at that or other similar parties could have not been aware it was an illegal gathering which they were taking part in and breaking the law. The ony legal defence would seem to be that as crown property the law didnt apply. If Stratton was sacked for trying to find a way to spin this well, obviously so should any other adviser involved in spinning this story, and most certainly anyone who took part. Including the cabinet secretary or any politicians who were present or even aware it was taking place. Jonson's approach of denying any knowledge whatsoever of the party seems his only safe course. If he is found to have l!ed in that, his position isnt really any worse than if he up front admitted to something.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2021 7:56:44 GMT
Carfrew You obviously missed the Great Mercian Insurgency on UKPR. 'West Midlands' is now 'West Mercia'. Are you sure you don’t mean Crossbat, EOR or Oldnat? They were the ones talking about the West Midlands? (Though of course I agree that West Mercia is to be preferred!)
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 9, 2021 8:07:24 GMT
Carfrew You obviously missed the Great Mercian Insurgency on UKPR. 'West Midlands' is now 'West Mercia'. Are you sure you don’t mean Crossbat, EOR or Oldnat? They were the ones talking about the West Midlands? (Though of course I agree that West Mercia is to be preferred!) Dyslexia Rools KO I knew the name began with 'C'. It was, of course CB, not CF. It were early
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 8:11:11 GMT
Danny Pfizer is around 90% effective after three months so I think it a tad unlikely that their ceo would have said anything even vaguely resembling this. Being less effective against a new variant isn't " wearing off". Intervied on Today R4 maybe last week some time. I think I posted about it the day it happened.
Are you quoting data for protection against serious illness or infection/reinfection? Whatever the mechanism, protection against infections is reckoned to fall off much faster than against serious illness. I havnt really seen evidence that the booster campaign is to create extra immunty against serious outcomes, but is intended to stop spread by reducing mild infections. Vaccines have a short term effect to do this.
I think the stat you are quoting is actually that during the first three months ater being given, a third vaccine typically reduces maybe cases or maybe deaths by 90% compared to unvaccinated and uninfected people? So not compared to single, double or post infection immune people, which by now is almost everyone? Compared to those cases its benefit will be far less.
The risk here is that this vacination campaign will simply have the same effect as lockdown which was to slow but not prevent spread. People will not get infected by the new strain until their vaccination immunity wanes, but this will create a pool of new victims replacing the original ones in three months or so. It will keep the virus in circulation for months whereas it would have ended naturally just as quickly as cases rose. That seems to be what has happened with delta.
The problem is that people dying are those with poor immunity. Is clear that amongst the completely unvaccinated most are nonetheless safe against covid, but a few arent. Similarly amongst vaccinated people, a minority are still dying. Because those vaccines cannot work on anyone wth a dodgy immune system anyway, and those were the people dying from the start.
I said a year ago that government needed to keep the epidemic going until it coud claim to have cured it with its vaccine plan. It simply cannot allow us to just go back to normal and watch covid go away all by itself.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2021 8:13:53 GMT
You couldnt make it up. R4 said Whistleblower who said he went home instead of going to the party resigns. Which is in fact what Stratton said too.
The crime for which you are punished is to admit there was a party, not to have gone to it.
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