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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 8, 2021 20:14:15 GMT
Now in general I'm against lots of separate threads but in this case I make an exception. Cricket commentary for cricket lovers in a specific thread please!  Hardly a commentary was it now. Just a brief exchange on how badly we were doing. That said, Crossbat’s return did inspire checking a few things out, so thanks for your help in that. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 8, 2021 20:18:45 GMT
Anyone who watched Sir Philip Barton being eviscerated yesterday by Tugenhadt's Select Comittee will not be surprised by the behaviour of Downing Street Staff , or its offhand portrayal as a joke by Stratton. Working from Home. Work Life Balance. Avoiding " Burn out". Being "On Leave". These were his priorities and those of his Department whilst Afghanistan collapsed and British friends and allies pleaded for help in vain. The job is just a job, shorn of any sense of responsibility. Just a bunch of entitlements paid for by the voters who have to obey other laws. Another report today is not unconnected to this Civil Service and its attitudes , and its craven Political Leadership . This is what we get from these people and their political "leaders".:- Times Did you happen to see Bingham’s recent critique of the Civil Service in the Times, Col.? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 8, 2021 20:21:38 GMT
Rate of increase in covid cases in South Africa appears to have slowed doubling rate down to around 7 days and death rate hardly changed. Much was made of a substantial increase in hospital admissions yesterday but the fact they fell by 25% today doesn't seem to have been noticed. Hi Steve - can you provide link for your data sources, as what I have seen is that Tues saw an increase in hospitalisations, and for Wednesday Covid continues to surge in SA with a record no of infections. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 8, 2021 20:23:30 GMT
I think the problem for the Conservatives is what we call entitlement. That is the feeling from the rich and powerful and upper classes that the rules don’t apply to them. People hate this and it cuts through in a way that day to day ups and downs of politics will never do.
And the government in general and Johnson in particular have stacked up a good deal of entitlement recently. I’d be amazed if this isn’t reflected in polling, although the general habit of ignoring “don’t knows” will conceal this to some extent. Many people who are “automatic” Conservative supporters will switch off, at least temporarily. Watch the don’t know figures in polling rather than the headlines.
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Post by turk on Dec 8, 2021 20:24:22 GMT
Danny
Guilty until proved innocent. Sounds like a good socialist principle.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 8, 2021 20:25:12 GMT
Thanks Trev. Tory MPs last week had the benefit of the doubt, support the PM reason for not supporting a censure around a specific event. In a few weeks or days that will be harder for them to finesse. Boris is p!ssing me right off as his antics and modus operandi are a massive distraction from CON HMG getting on with delivery... Well, Cummings did say that Boris likes things a bit chaotic, something along the lines of keeps people insecure and dependent on him, IIRC. (One suspects it also wrongfoots those who like to scheme, or rely on exploiting procedures, if he keeps things a bit unbalanced). |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 8, 2021 20:31:21 GMT
Turk didn't say anything like that. He simply asked what level of noise would Labour have made about it if there wasn't a by election pending. I suppose that depends on who you think has a moral code or not. I suspect that as many Conservatives are as outraged by all this stuff as Labour ones are. But moral codes may not just apply to Boris. Out in voterland, some people may actually contrast with the moral codes of other politicians. Boris hasn’t invaded Iraq with a dodgy dossier. Not yet anyway. E.g. a contrast between: was there a party vs. were there weapons of mass destruction etc. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2021 20:34:16 GMT
Anyone who watched Sir Philip Barton being eviscerated yesterday by Tugenhadt's Select Comittee will not be surprised by the behaviour of Downing Street Staff , or its offhand portrayal as a joke by Stratton. Working from Home. Work Life Balance. Avoiding " Burn out". Being "On Leave". These were his priorities and those of his Department whilst Afghanistan collapsed and British friends and allies pleaded for help in vain. The job is just a job, shorn of any sense of responsibility. Just a bunch of entitlements paid for by the voters who have to obey other laws. Another report today is not unconnected to this Civil Service and its attitudes , and its craven Political Leadership . This is what we get from these people and their political "leaders".:- Times Did you happen to see Bingham’s recent critique of the Civil Service in the Times, Col.? I did Carfrew. Damning and depressing |
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Post by hireton on Dec 8, 2021 20:59:27 GMT
As expected, more party attendees are beginning to talk to the press:
Looks like evidence of a party for the Met Police to investigate.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 8, 2021 21:14:31 GMT
As expected, more party attendees are beginning to talk to the press: Looks like evidence of a party for the Met Police to investigate. Isn't Met policy not to investigate anything that might embarrass UKGov? Perhaps this is a case for bringing in an force from elsewhere, that isn't subject to control (via funding or other means) by UKGov, and has recent experience of investigating cases involving politicians and civil servants. The Police Service of Northern Ireland and Police Scotland are two such forces. |
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Post by jib on Dec 8, 2021 22:12:31 GMT
What a shambles!
Blundering from one self-inflicted crisis to the next.
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Post by alec on Dec 8, 2021 22:49:29 GMT
Some positive Omicron news from Pfizer, wh have said today that three doses appear to substantially elevate antibody levels that leads to neutralization of the new variant. This is data generated from blood test of people after their booster dose, so this starts to give some genuine reassurance that while Omicron is clearly a problem, it is something that remains containable.
This evidence also supports, in my view, policies of more aggressive public health measures. If there had been substantial vaccine escape and the booster dose was less likely to protect recipients, it would be difficult to justify harder containment measures, as these would really only be delaying the inevitable. But we are now getting indication that the booster dose gives a much better protection than the double dose, so the idea of playing for time to maximise triple jabs now makes clear sense.
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Post by jib on Dec 8, 2021 22:54:23 GMT
Some positive Omicron news from Pfizer, wh have said today that three doses appear to substantially elevate antibody levels that leads to neutralization of the new variant. This is data generated from blood test of people after their booster dose, so this starts to give some genuine reassurance that while Omicron is clearly a problem, it is something that remains containable. This evidence also supports, in my view, policies of more aggressive public health measures. If there had been substantial vaccine escape and the booster dose was less likely to protect recipients, it would be difficult to justify harder containment measures, as these would really only be delaying the inevitable. But we are now getting indication that the booster dose gives a much better protection than the double dose, so the idea of playing for time to maximise triple jabs now makes clear sense. Alec, The consideration of compulsory vaccination, and stricter controls over the lives of the vaccine refuseniks, is now here. I leave it to the elected politicians. |
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Post by alec on Dec 8, 2021 23:09:14 GMT
jib - I think we are in very difficult territory if we start restricting vaccine refusers. Firstly, we need to ask what is the purpose we are trying to achieve here. If it for their own protection, and by extension to avoid hospitals filling up, then that is understandable, but misguided. How will restricting their behaviour lead to reduced risk of infection? Might it drive them underground, thus placing them (and the NHS) at greater risk? Why, they could ask, are those refusing covid vaccines facing restrictions, while there is no similar stance taken against smokers, or fat people, or dangerous sports enthusiasts, all of whom are a risk to themselves and clog up the NHS? So there seems to a fundamental unfairness here. If we say such measures are there to protect everyone else, then that isn't logical. The vaccinated can spread covid as much as the unvaccinated, so we should be discriminating only on the basis of current test status.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 8, 2021 23:15:12 GMT
I've just realised that for about 15 years, whilst we lived in Bovingdon, Herts, we were 0.8 miles from the Buckinghamshire border and the Chesham & Amersham constituency and now we live 1.8 miles from the Shropshire border and the North Shropshire constituency. Geography may be about to repeat itself.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2021 23:16:19 GMT
Hunt is "squeaky clean..?" The Minister For Murdoch?
FFS
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 8, 2021 23:19:21 GMT
Hi Steve - can you provide link for your data sources, as what I have seen is that Tues saw an increase in hospitalisations, and for Wednesday Covid continues to surge in SA with a record no of infections. I had understood that Covid/Omicron infections are surging in S Africa, but hospitalisations for Covid itself are not. According to the source I have been following (linked below) there is so much Covid around in S Africa that many hospital patients with other conditions also have it. Hence of around 4,250 in hospital who have Covid, 75% are there due to other conditions. Deaths from Covid in S Africa are not rising (or rising very slightly), which seems to be good news as they have had Omicron for probaly 5-6 weeks now. Also, it is likely that Omicron originated elsewhere in the southern half of Africa, so the lack of a surge in covid deaths in neighbouring countries is also encouraging news. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E6gpPJwYIYDidn't the Dutch report they have traced a case of Omicron in Holland before anything reported in South Africa? |
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bantams
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Known as Bantams on UKPR
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Post by bantams on Dec 8, 2021 23:22:13 GMT
Some positive Omicron news from Pfizer, wh have said today that three doses appear to substantially elevate antibody levels that leads to neutralization of the new variant. This is data generated from blood test of people after their booster dose, so this starts to give some genuine reassurance that while Omicron is clearly a problem, it is something that remains containable. This evidence also supports, in my view, policies of more aggressive public health measures. If there had been substantial vaccine escape and the booster dose was less likely to protect recipients, it would be difficult to justify harder containment measures, as these would really only be delaying the inevitable. But we are now getting indication that the booster dose gives a much better protection than the double dose, so the idea of playing for time to maximise triple jabs now makes clear sense. Alec, The consideration of compulsory vaccination, and stricter controls over the lives of the vaccine refuseniks, is now here. I leave it to the elected politicians. |
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Post by jib on Dec 8, 2021 23:23:07 GMT
alecThen your consideration arrives at a conclusion that further restrictions are extremely limited.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 8, 2021 23:30:33 GMT
Bantams. I made a slight error on the data the reduction was 5%"not 25%. The rest of the data is accurate. However the data from hospitals in South Africa is that the seriousness of admissions is far lower. Bloomberg) -- Netcare Ltd., which operates the largest private health-care network in South Africa, is seeing milder Covid-19 cases even as as omicron is driving up the number of people testing positive for the virus. The symptoms displayed by patients in Netcare’s hospitals in the epicenter of the current fourth wave, the province of Gauteng, “are far milder than anything we experienced during earlier waves. " Read more at: www.bloombergquint.com/business/omicron-symptoms-far-milder-s-africa-hospital-group-ceo-saysCopyright © BloombergQuint |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 8, 2021 23:36:07 GMT
Attachment DeletedA Redfield and Wilton conducted poll released earlier this evening. The West Midlands, an area I know well, was once a Labour stronghold but, over the last 15-20 years, the party has gone steadily backwards in some of its former heartlands in the region. This poll, if accurate, suggests a sensational turnaround in fortunes over the last 22 months. Like the Red Wall constituencies in the north of England, Labour can't hope to return to power unless they recover in areas like the West Midlands. This poll suggests the much needed revival could now be underway. Worth keeping an eye out for further evidence. Lots of marginals in the region which, on a swing of anything like the the size suggested by this R&W poll, would fall into Labour's lap.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2021 23:47:10 GMT
Well, Cummings did say that Boris likes things a bit chaotic.. Varys: What do we have left once we abandon the lie? Chaos. A gaping pit waiting to swallow us all.Little finger: Chaos isn't a pit, chaos is a ladder:www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpybogxYGsIWhen you play the game of thrones, you win or you die[1]. Boris is no longer a winner or capable of winning next GE (IMO) and switching to one of Dom's favourite movie quotes then: You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain
If Boris had never come out of hospital last Spring the former would have applied and his legacy would have been the PM who 'Got Brexit Done' but now he's into the latter and not the dark knight we need right now. [1] Boris has more than a passing resemblance to Robert Baratheon IMO (in girth and the way he conducts his life). Although Carrie Antoinette (aka Princess Nuts Nuts) is no Cersei and will not take over the throne as Queen Regent for Wilfred. The whole court of Boris will collapse and she'll be out on her ear with Wilfred and Dilyn the dog. |
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Post by eor on Dec 8, 2021 23:51:59 GMT
crossbat11 Compared to the actual 2019 results (https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2019-12-12/results/Location/Region/West%20Midlands) that would be Lab +19% Con -25% LD +1% Grn +4% That's a swing of 22%, compared to a swing of about 6-7% in GB polls, which would imply the swing to Lab in many other regions must be significantly below the national one, and would also have the Tories doing about 6 points worse in West Mids than they managed in the 1997 GE when Labour had a vast polling lead. www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m15.pdfI guess my first questions would be about the sample size, how weighted it was to the region itself, and what definition of "West Midlands" they're using...
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Post by eor on Dec 8, 2021 23:55:23 GMT
hiretonThank you for the correction on the role of the PM's PPS. Would my characterisation have been close(r) for a PPS in a ministerial department or was I just way off beam generally?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 9, 2021 0:00:28 GMT
<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> A Redfield and Wilton conducted poll released earlier this evening. Mmm Those figures are taken from a GB wide poll to which the West Midlands provided 78 weighted responses. There was an old adage on the former UKPR "Don't look at the Scots crossbreaks!" That applies even more, I suspect to the West Midlands. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 9, 2021 0:00:46 GMT
<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> A Redfield and Wilton conducted poll released earlier this evening. The West Midlands, an area I know well, was once a Labour stronghold but, over the last 15-20 years, the party has gone steadily backwards in some of its former heartlands in the region. This poll, if accurate, suggests a sensational turnaround in fortunes over the last 22 months. Like the Red Wall constituencies in the north of England, Labour can't hope to return to power unless they recover in areas like the West Midlands. This poll suggests the much needed revival could now be underway. Worth keeping an eye out for further evidence. Lots of marginals in the region which, on a swing of anything like the the size suggested by this R&W poll, would fall into Labour's lap. Heartening news! |
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Post by eor on Dec 9, 2021 0:00:55 GMT
Con back bencher on R4 just said the public must be able to to trust the word of the prime minsister. I begin to wonder whether Jonson and leave supporters could be out of office by the spring and the resultant chaos used as the excuse for a spring election.
Why would any majority government (let alone one you are at pains to keep telling us is motivated purely by its pursuit and retention of power) deliberately trigger a mid-term election when their fortunes are low? |
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Post by tancred on Dec 9, 2021 0:01:59 GMT
It would be surprising if the LibDems did not win. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 9, 2021 0:05:25 GMT
Cabinet Secretary Simon Case tasked by Spaffer with covering up,sorry, investigating the shrodinghers party at number 10 May well have been an attendee.
Presumably he will interview and sack himself if he finds that he's done anything wrong.
The absurdity of the liathon continues
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Post by tancred on Dec 9, 2021 0:06:59 GMT
Presumably when Russia invadas Ukrain its objective will be to secure an area which is pro Russian already, and then stage another vote to say the epople want to be part of Russia. Keep that up and they arent so much aquiring a new satellite under their control but actually expanding Russia. The problem is that when the USSR broke up, the internal borders of that nation were used as the basis for new international borders. This was a crass mistake; there should have been plebiscites in areas like Crimea and eastern Ukraine to decide which country wanted to part of. |
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