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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jan 7, 2022 0:05:49 GMT
For everything from drones to Mars rovers, cars to maglev.
And today, the headline in the Telegraph was “Tesla takes the UK sales crown as petrol now accounts for less than half of new cars”. Has Musk won?
or is it still too early to say?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2022 0:52:10 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w I posted a comment, with SMMT link to 'raw data', on UK car sales on the ' Energy Markets and Net Zero' thread as there have been a few EV related posts on that thread. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/thread/9/energy-markets-net-zeroMusk has won (in the sense of making BEVs the VHS of small-medium EVs) but that doesn't stop others from also winning in other sectors or other companies taking a larger % share of what is a fast growing 'pie' in the future (ie Tesla will likely continue to increase absolute sales but will also likely drop in relative % of BEV market). Competition is a good thing 
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jan 7, 2022 12:28:58 GMT
@tw
Yes, seeing similar headlines is part of what prompted me to start this thread. There are additional issues from the perspective of the car industry that perhaps go beyond energy concerns, Like even if BEVs dominate, will Tesla be dominant or as some contend, will the big names eventually take over. When will self-driving cars properly happen and will it decimate car sales?
Also, there are a number of stalwarts on the board who have worked in the car industry, like Crossbat, Somerjohn and Guymonde, and thought it might be an idea for them to have a place to share more about it if they want to.
Then all other transport stuff we used to talk about on the old board. Like Maglev. HS2. Tunnels. Drones. Electric planes and hydrogen trains. Thorium-powered spaceships...
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Post by lens on Jan 7, 2022 18:43:09 GMT
It's worth looking at what Musk got right. (At least got right IMO.)
Possibly the first was taking battery tech seriously for cars, when most of the attention was looking at hydrogen to clean up exhausts. At the time (15ish years ago) the perceived wisdom ruled out battery for "serious" petrol replacement due to cost - kudos to Musk for identifying how costs may come down.
Second may be deciding to work from the top down rather than bottom up. With the Roadster he went for a no-holds barred, performance is everything car - which was expensive. Arguably, it started to convince people that electric cars were serious in competing with petrol - not just glorified milk carts. Then came the model S and X - both expensive, but high performance and fairly luxurious.
Next I'd put the Supercharger network, which maybe again more than anything else convinced people that with an electric car (OK, at least with a Tesla) you could make a long journey. Maybe we're still not fully there yet, but Tesla are further along than most. It's not just the relative ease of finding a charger in a suitable place, it's the speed. Look closely at a lot of the competition and away from the headline specs you'll find most can't match charge speed of a Tesla - even if you can find a fast charger that could deliver it.
There are other things which went well for him - arguably vertical integration, and especially guaranteeing a battery supply early on. And in house battery R&D which helps keep a technical lead.
As for the future, VW seem to have seen the light, but many of the established manufacturers are sluggish. Reluctant to commit billions to the future, when petrol/diesel cars are still making money for them. Future predictions are notoriously difficult, the more so the further into the future you try, but I'm expecting Tesla to ramp their production more and more for a good few years yet, with some manufacturers (VW?) transitioning quite well, but with a few falling by the wayside. So maybe Tesla taking the market share of the latter, whilst such as VW keeping their share, but transitioning from petrol/diesel to electric.
For myself, I think it'll be another couple of years before I'd be prepared to buy a BEV, but am pretty sure that my next car will be battery. Pretty glad I can just wait for now. And we'll see what's on the market then, but certainly at the moment Tesla would be top of my list, largely down to the Supercharger network. Like most BEV owners I'd expect most charging to be at home, but it's nice to know a long journey is possible with the least anxiety.
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Post by birdseye on Feb 20, 2022 17:42:36 GMT
The usual rule in business is to never be the first in a new market. Let some mug with an idea start things off and then take it from him.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 21, 2023 23:14:24 GMT
Electric air taxis being developed for Paris Olympics in 2024Aircraft will take off and land vertically, and carry a single passenger between transport hubs, says capital’s airports operator Senay Boztas in Amsterdam Tue 21 Mar 2023 20.57 GMT Athletes are getting in shape for the Paris Olympic Games in 2024, and so is the world’s first electric air taxi network. “We are going to make it happen,” Solène Le Bris of Paris airports operator Groupe ADP told an industry audience at Amsterdam Drone Week. “We are trying to launch the first e-VTOL [vertical takeoff and landing] pre-commercial service in the world: that’s our ambition.” In a packed talk on Tuesday, the first outlines were revealed of what has been dubbed the “Tesla of the skies”. Senior civil engineer Le Bris explained that there will be five vertiports where passengers can board the vehicles, the first of which at Cergy-Pontoise opened in November and is functioning as a test centre. www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/21/sb-paris-taxis /cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/KI6V3AE5TZNXXNMRX6Q5SMEZ2Y.jpg)
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 23, 2023 14:23:28 GMT
The usual rule in business is to never be the first in a new market. Let some mug with an idea start things off and then take it from him. My late father, who was a skilled tinsmith in a motor car factory, always said "Never buy a new model of a car until it has been on the market for 12 months." |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 23, 2023 14:49:17 GMT
The usual rule in business is to never be the first in a new market. Let some mug with an idea start things off and then take it from him. My late father, who was a skilled tinsmith in a motor car factory, always said "Never buy a new model of a car until it has been on the market for 12 months." If you bought an early Stratocaster or Les Paul in decent nick though you might be quids in! |
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Post by lens on Mar 24, 2023 0:38:13 GMT
Electric air taxis being developed for Paris Olympics in 2024Aircraft will take off and land vertically, and carry a single passenger between transport hubs, says capital’s airports operator Senay Boztas in Amsterdam Tue 21 Mar 2023 20.57 G Interesting enough - but not really sure why it's big news in the Guardian? There are quite a few other firms now building electric aircraft on a far bigger scale than being only able to carry a single passenger - as just one example www.reuters.com/technology/swiss-electric-seaplane-startup-gets-first-order-2023-03-21/ I can only assume the newsworthy side is the Olympic connection, rather than the aircraft itself? (The Reuters link is about a 19 seater.) And it does seem as if battery technology is continuing to advance, with an apparently verified 500Wh/kg lithium battery here - amprius.com/the-all-new-amprius-500-wh-kg-battery-platform-is-here/ A word of caution about such. The press release makes a lot about the energy density (which is good) but gives no detail about how it compares with other battery metrics such as cost. For aviation, energy density by weight is probably the most key factor towards making electric aviation reach a tipping point (at least for smallish planes and short/medium haul), cost less so, so it may well represent a true breakthrough in the field, if not necessarily for such as cars (where cost is more important). |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 24, 2023 0:50:24 GMT
Electric air taxis being developed for Paris Olympics in 2024Aircraft will take off and land vertically, and carry a single passenger between transport hubs, says capital’s airports operator Senay Boztas in Amsterdam Tue 21 Mar 2023 20.57 G Interesting enough - but not really sure why it's big news in the Guardian? There are quite a few other firms now building electric aircraft on a far bigger scale than being only able to carry a single passenger - as just one example www.reuters.com/technology/swiss-electric-seaplane-startup-gets-first-order-2023-03-21/ I can only assume the newsworthy side is the Olympic connection, rather than the aircraft itself? (The Reuters link is about a 19 seater.) And it does seem as if battery technology is continuing to advance, with an apparently verified 500Wh/kg lithium battery here - amprius.com/the-all-new-amprius-500-wh-kg-battery-platform-is-here/ A word of caution about such. The press release makes a lot about the energy density (which is good) but gives no detail about how it compares with other battery metrics such as cost. For aviation, energy density by weight is probably the most key factor towards making electric aviation reach a tipping point (at least for smallish planes and short/medium haul), cost less so, so it may well represent a true breakthrough in the field, if not necessarily for such as cars (where cost is more important). Dunno why it’s big news in the Graun… I posted it in part because it’s one of those things that’s often promised but doesn’t happen… though of course it may happen but then you have issues with cars dropping out of the sky. (Hence Musk’s alternative of layers of tunnels instead) It looks likely that as current battery tech progresses Lithium ion may be ok for short haul flights? They claim that the Lithium air tech if it works out would make medium haul more likely.  |
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 5, 2023 15:00:10 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 9, 2023 4:35:39 GMT
Good spot, and good to see if the powers that be are taking this more seriously. We were talking about it on the old board some years ago, when James B posted the research about it. Interestingly, while the Guardian article suggested that particulates from brake wear were less of an issue with EVs because of regenerative braking, IIRC the research James posted suggested that brake particulates might be nonetheless worse for EVs because of the greater weight. (It occurred to me at the time, that even if there were fewer particulates, they might be worse in effect because heavier vehicles tend to produce finer, more dangerous particles. Reducing vehicle weight might lessen this however). |
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 6, 2024 11:10:40 GMT
How Euston came to be chosen as the terminus for HS2. A video by Jago Hazzard. Jago's videos on trains are always fascinating. It seems that the principal reason for Euston was that the station needed redevelopment and none of the other north-of-the-river existing terminals could manage the space requirement. I must say that the Heathrow option looks like a missed opportunity as it could have had many advantages including a fast rail line connecting it to Gatwick and a link to HS1.
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