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Post by eor on Jan 1, 2022 1:16:40 GMT
Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Let's say a week from now to chip in?
A point for each, and to stop the economic questions becoming de facto tie-breakers if we have a very boring year, I'm going to say +/- 5% on those gets the point, +/- 10% for half a point.
So, on 31st December 2022;
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK?
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland?
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland?
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales?
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster?
6. Who will be the President of France?
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel?
8. Who will be the President of the United States?
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany?
10. Who will be the President of China?
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you?
12. And how many euros?
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22)
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022)
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022)
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence?
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party?
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23)
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share)
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election).
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Post by mercian on Jan 1, 2022 1:33:11 GMT
I'd love to have a go, but can you clarify 19 and 20?
e.g. 19 Is it actual vote share compared to Rawlings and Thrasher and if so is it by percentage? For instance, I don't know how many parties they specify but OMRLP might easily double their vote but get 0 seats. Is that what you intend?
20 So if an independent was elected as independent and won, that would be an independent hold, and if a party beat them it would be a gain for that party? Also what if there was (say, there are obviously other combinations which will have happened throughout the country) a councillor who was elected as a Tory but defected to Labour. If Tory won would it be a gain or a hold? I have my own opinion but I think you should specify what your intention is. It could make a difference in a close contest.
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Post by Mark on Jan 1, 2022 2:23:52 GMT
I'll answer the easy ones now and edit my post tomorrow to answer the rest...
On the assumption that there isn't a war (which I think is possible, I'd say still unlikely, but, possible)...
So, on 31st December 2022;
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK?
Liz Truss. Johnson's days are numbered, I reckon he'll make it until May, but, not much beyond that.
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland?
Nicola Sturgeon.
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland?
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales?
Mark Drakeford.
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster?
Kier Starmer.
6. Who will be the President of France?
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel?
8. Who will be the President of the United States?
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany?
10. Who will be the President of China?
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you?
12. And how many euros?
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22)
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022)
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022)
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence?
No chance.
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party?
Yes.
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23)
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share)
Labour.
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat?
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Post by eor on Jan 1, 2022 2:32:50 GMT
I'd love to have a go, but can you clarify 19 and 20? e.g. 19 Is it actual vote share compared to Rawlings and Thrasher and if so is it by percentage? For instance, I don't know how many parties they specify but OMRLP might easily double their vote but get 0 seats. Is that what you intend? Yeah it was a straightforward which party will they give the highest % to when they've done their projection. So almost certainly not OMRLP :-) Yeah I specified Westminster so councillors don't come into it, that would be too hard to track! What I was trying to head off with the wording was a situation where an MP gets kicked out of their party (or leaves it in a disagreement or party split) and then later resigns triggering a by-election. In that situation I think it would be fair to judge it a win or a loss based on whether the party they were elected under retains or not. Likewise if someone goes rogue and decides to stand in their own by-election (Carswell, Reckless, Goldsmith) then it seems reasonable to judge that a hold or loss based on how they originally got elected as the rarity of someone winning as an independent would make us all so excited we wouldn't care :-) |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 1, 2022 8:28:05 GMT
All unchanged, or only marginally so from today. Interest rates up about half a per cent, democrats in US will lose their majority. Farage will pop up from time to time but fail to act upon his bluster.
In the absence of a call for polling predictions, I'll add some of my own.
Assuming Brenda survives the year, the Tories will slightly narrow the current polling gap and stick on about 34/35 to Labours 36/37. If she does not, these figures will reverse.
The government will deny they are going to bail out the power companies and subsidise gas and electricity, then perform another screeching handbrake turn. Some will speculate over whether Sunak might resign over this to spend more time on his leadership campaign.
QE3 will fail to deliver any Brexit bonus.
Johnson will limp on until the middle of June 2023, when he will resign on grounds of health, allowing the new leader to go into the May 2024 election with some residual honeymoon effect.
Covid will rumble on. There will be no inquiry in 2022. Variants will emerge.
Omicron will be seen as comparatively mild and many will give Johnson the benefit of the doubt for not closing the country, disregarding the economic damage wrought upon retail and entertainment sectors by people staying away during December and January. There will be no support package and many will go under.
England will continue to perform badly in terms of covid deaths and public health compared to other countries. Danny will continue producing screeds of nonsense better suited to the covid thread but posted on the main board because otherwise no-one would see it. Some, inevitably, will reply.
Glastonbury festival will go ahead and it will rain throughout. I will be there and enjoy it regardless, though not as much as if it were dry and not the muddiest hell hole on earth.
Either today or tomorrow, my status will be upgraded from new member and I will continue to wonder whether the posts I write have any meaning, deleting more than half of them before pressing "create post".
With this in mind, I'll wish everyone a happy new year.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 1, 2022 9:17:36 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Paul Givan
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Valerie Pecressie
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Naftali Bennett
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Joe Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.42
12. And how many euros? 1.25
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 3.4%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022)5%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 1.5%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? yes
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No - but he will have his own TV programme
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Senate - Republicans, House - Democrats
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) - they will all claim to have 'won', but Labour will get the highest vote share.
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 5
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Post by moby on Jan 1, 2022 9:20:59 GMT
John Crace has some interesting predictions:
At the Tory party conference, Liz Truss insists that from now on she be called “Gloriana, Empress of the United Kingdom and all her Colonies.” Rishi Sunak announces that enough is enough. The tax take is too high for even someone with a wife with a billionaire father to get by on, so he is leaving politics and going back to Goldman Sachs to offshore more of his loot. Truss barely bothers to hide her lack of disappointment and says she will be taking over his job. As she never got round to replacing either herself at the Foreign Office or Priti Patel, whom she sacked as home secretary, this is the first time the four great offices of state have been held by the same person
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Post by jimjam on Jan 1, 2022 9:35:17 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Penny Mordaunt
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neil
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Macron
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Bennett
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Xingping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.28
12. And how many euros? 1.15
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 3.5%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 6.2%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 1%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Rep and Rep
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour (SNP in Scotland).
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 4 seats
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Post by jimjam on Jan 1, 2022 9:41:33 GMT
NB) which exchange rate will you be using?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 1, 2022 11:04:49 GMT
20.
How are we supposed to know how many by-elections there will be? Do we have the inside track on MP's health and likely longevity, are we all meant to deploy our inner actuary? Would a % figure be better?
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Post by robert on Jan 1, 2022 17:35:45 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Donaldson
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Pecresse
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Bennett
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.42
12. And how many euros? 1.24
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 3.8%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 3.6%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 2.25%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Republican both houses.
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 2
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 1, 2022 19:46:38 GMT
Prime Minister...Kier Starmer
Leader of the opposition......Jeremy Hunt
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Post by mercian on Jan 1, 2022 20:38:02 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Jeffrey Donaldson
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Dupont-Aignan
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Kamala Harris
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? $1.45
12. And how many euros? €1.23
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 6.2
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 3.8%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 3.5%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? Yes
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Republican, Republican
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Tory
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 3
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Post by manlad on Jan 1, 2022 23:30:08 GMT
My first post. Always good fun to make a few predictions only to look daft 12 months later.
1. Rishi Sunak
2. Nicola Sturgeon
3. Michelle O'Neill
4. Mark Drakeford
5. Keir Starmer
6. Macron
7. Bennett
8. Biden
9. Scholz
10. Xi
11. $1.31
12. € 1.18
13. 4.2%
14. 5%
15. 0.75%
16. No
17. No
18. Dems and Dems
19. Labour in England and Wales, SNP in Scotland
20. 4
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 2, 2022 10:42:48 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson 40% (modal value). Challenge likely and likely lost but who knows who wins
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon 95% (always a chance of falling under a bus etc)
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Brandon Lewis 50%. Sinn Fein will win the election but the unionists will crash the assembly rather than let Michelle O'Neill take over, so direct rule will be in place.
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford 95%. Can’t see all the other parties ganging up.
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer 95%. See Sturgeon.
6. Who will be the President of France? Macron 70%. He will win against anyone but Pecresse. I give the latter a 40% chance of finishing second and a 75% of winning if she does.
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Naftali Bennett 85%. Coalition unlikely to break down yet.
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Joe Biden 90%. Death more likely than Sturgeon or Starmer and can’t be removed otherwise.
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz 95%. Even if coalition breaks down he is likely to remain chancelllor
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping 98%. He’s not going anywhere.
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.25 low confidence, expect pound to decline but not much
12. And how many euros? 1.08 low confidence. Expect greater decline against euro as inflation lower in Europe.
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 4.6%. On the way down but low confidence
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022)
Tough. I’m going to go for no change ie 4.2%.
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 1.25%. More confidence in this.
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No 100%
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No 80%
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22
elections that will take office in Jan23) House Republicans 90%. Senate Republicans 75%.
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected
vote share) Labour but not by much as The Liberal Democrats do a lot better locally. Much can change by May. Confidence only 70%
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? There have been less by-elections in recent years as MPs are younger and fitter. I’d guess 4 as we are still early in this parliament. 2 of these will be lost by the party defending the seat. Confidence 30%.
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Post by eor on Jan 2, 2022 22:41:15 GMT
20. How are we supposed to know how many by-elections there will be? Do we have the inside track on MP's health and likely longevity, are we all meant to deploy our inner actuary? Would a % figure be better? My thinking was just that by-elections crop up from time to time, for various reasons, and that when things are going badly for a government they tend to be prone to losing them. But that also in the last few years the Opposition has developed an interesting suit in this direction too, with, as James E noted, more happening in past recent year than any recent other. So it seemed worth throwing into the mix. |
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Post by birdseye on Jan 3, 2022 17:12:17 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Does it matter?
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford unfortunately
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? macron
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Naftali Bennett
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.30
12. And how many euros? 1.10
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 7%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022)4%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 3%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? no
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Senate - Republicans, House - Democrats
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) - Labour.
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? Unanswerable since it depends on which MPs die or resign.
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Post by wb61 on Jan 4, 2022 11:02:26 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neil (But with the assembly not operating)
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? M. Macron
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Depends!!!!!
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Kamalah Harris
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.2
12. And how many euros? 1
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 7%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 4%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 1.5%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Senate (Republican) House (Democrat)
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 2
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2022 20:41:41 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neill
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Sir Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Valérie Pécresse
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Joe Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.33
12. And how many euros? 1.12
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 4.9%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 4.4%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 2%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Rep/Rep
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Eng: Lab. NI: DUP. Scot: SNP. Wales: Lab
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? 2.
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Post by shevii on Jan 5, 2022 18:57:30 GMT
Full disclosure I copied jimjam and then corrected his errors :-) 1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson 2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon 3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neil but could be anyone or no-one 4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford 5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer 6. Who will be the President of France? Macron 7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Bennett 8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden 9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Scholz 10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Xingping 11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.37 12. And how many euros? 1.18 13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 4.5% 14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 4.2% 15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 0.75% 16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No 17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No 18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Rep and Dem 19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Con 20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 1 |
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Post by eor on Jan 9, 2022 0:01:47 GMT
Well, it's been a week, and without having read any of yours** here are mine;
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Vacant
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Vaughan Gething
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Valerie Pecresse
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Joe Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? $1.38
12. And how many euros? E1.30
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? 3.2%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? 3.8%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? 1.25%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? Yes
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? Republicans & Republicans
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? Conservatives
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? 2
(**this is definitely a thing this site makes much easier!)
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,488
Member is Online
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Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 15:47:42 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Sunak
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neil
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? M. Macron
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel?
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.3
12. And how many euros? 1.1
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? 6.5%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? 4%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 2%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? Yes
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Senate (Republican) House (Democrat)
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 4
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 9, 2022 15:58:23 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Tom Tugenhadt
2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon
3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neil
4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford
5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
6. Who will be the President of France? Macron
7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Bennett
8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden
9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Scholz
10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Xingping
11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.30
12. And how many euros? 1.23
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 5.3%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 4.0%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 1.5%
16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No
18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Rep and Dem
19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 2
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Feb 27, 2022 20:48:41 GMT
Might have been handy to have a question or two about Russia etc.
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,488
Member is Online
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Post by neilj on Dec 30, 2022 17:23:04 GMT
1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Sunak 2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon 3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neil 4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford 5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer 6. Who will be the President of France? M. Macron 7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? 8. Who will be the President of the United States? Biden 9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz 10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping 11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.3 12. And how many euros? 1.1 13. What will the UK inflation rate be? 6.5% 14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? 4% 15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 2% 16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No 17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? Yes 18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Senate (Republican) House (Democrat) 19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour 20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 4 Happy with that |
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Post by eor on Dec 31, 2022 2:03:45 GMT
Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Let's say a week from now to chip in? A point for each, and to stop the economic questions becoming de facto tie-breakers if we have a very boring year, I'm going to say +/- 5% on those gets the point, +/- 10% for half a point. So, on 31st December 2022; 1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Rishi Sunak2. Who will be the First Minister of Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon3. Who will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? No-one4. Who will be the First Minister of Wales? Mark Drakeford5. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer6. Who will be the President of France? Emmanuel Macron7. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu 8. Who will be the President of the United States? Joe Biden9. Who will be the Chancellor of Germany? Olaf Scholz10. Who will be the President of China? Xi Jinping11. How many dollars will £1 buy you? 1.2112. And how many euros? 1.1313. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 22) 10.7%14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2022) 3.7%15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2022) 3.5%16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No17. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No18. Which party will control the US Senate (½ point) and House (½ point)? (to be based on the chambers elected in the Nov22 elections that will take office in Jan23) Senate Democrats, House Republicans19. Which party will be deemed to have “won” in the 2022 local elections? (to be based on the Rawlings & Thrasher projected vote share) Labour20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2022; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 2Well it's now the 31st so answers are as above. I don't think it's even theoretically possible for most of those to change during the course of a Saturday, and as it would take at least two changes to alter the result I'm comfortable to declare that winner is.... John Chanin His tally of 14.5 points was clear of manlad and @sotonsaint on 13. John was aided by being the only person close enough to get a full point on both exchange rate questions, as well as calling two of the trickier questions (NI FM and by-election seat changes) correctly. birdseye and steamdrivenandy were close behind on 12.5, with neilj , wb61 , jimjam and robert on 12. Most others were 10.5 or 10 points, with lululemonmustdobetter sparing my blushes by nobly claiming the wooden spoon on 8. In terms of the questions; - everyone predicted that Sturgeon, Scholz, and Jinping would remain in power, and that Starmer would remain LOTO at Westminster (and everyone but me had Drakeford remaining too) - no-one got even close to the inflation figure, with most people predicting under 5% - no-one got the US mid-terms right (Dem Senate, GOP House) - whilst each of the three incorrect possibilities (Dem/Dem, GOP/GOP and GOP Senate/Dem House) had decent support - mercian got the interest rate prediction spot on - and only birdseye got remotely close to that, with everyone else sharply underestimating - only neilj and manlad had Sunak for PM, tho I gave our Benevolent Overlord half a point for Liz Truss - the question was written with an "if not Johnson then...?" scenario in mind; had it occurred to me that someone else could have been and gone along the way to Dec 31st I'd have definitely offered some score for that :-) Thanks for taking part all; suggestions for inclusions and refinements for a 2023 version are most welcome! |
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Post by eor on Dec 31, 2022 2:20:25 GMT
For my part... I think some of the office holder questions were uneven. UK PM, US and France were fair enough in different ways - UK had a vulnerable PM with much speculation as to who would succeed him and when, US was effectively a binary question on whether Biden would resign or die given their rules of Succession, and there was a messy Presidential election in its primary stages in France. Scotland, Germany, Wales, China and Westminster LOTO should probably have been yes/no questions - to predict that any of those incumbents would leave office unexpectedly would have deserved the point; requiring people to achieve the even harder level of insight by also correctly identifying their successor seems rather unfair.
I think we need something for 2023 about the Ukraine war, about Putin, and just as I should have included a question about the Brazilian Presidency in 2022 then any high profile 2023 elections are worth a shout too. Looking back I think UK petrol/energy prices would have been an interesting one too, if there are standardised measures we can use to give definitive answers at the end of the year?
Suggestions welcome.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,600
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 31, 2022 9:36:51 GMT
For my part... I think some of the office holder questions were uneven. UK PM, US and France were fair enough in different ways - UK had a vulnerable PM with much speculation as to who would succeed him and when, US was effectively a binary question on whether Biden would resign or die given their rules of Succession, and there was a messy Presidential election in its primary stages in France. Scotland, Germany, Wales, China and Westminster LOTO should probably have been yes/no questions - to predict that any of those incumbents would leave office unexpectedly would have deserved the point; requiring people to achieve the even harder level of insight by also correctly identifying their successor seems rather unfair. I think we need something for 2023 about the Ukraine war, about Putin, and just as I should have included a question about the Brazilian Presidency in 2022 then any high profile 2023 elections are worth a shout too. Looking back I think UK petrol/energy prices would have been an interesting one too, if there are standardised measures we can use to give definitive answers at the end of the year? Suggestions welcome. I was also going to suggest Putin (the answer is almost certainly that he will be there in a year's time, but there is a slim chance he won't) and whether or not the Ukraine/Russia war will still be active. A question about which party will be leading in the UK polls and (harder to answer) the size of that lead, might be interesting given this is a polling site. For the answer either pick one well known polling company or an average of them all. Could ask whether people think Biden will have declared himself as a candidate for the Dem nomination for 2024. Trying to guess the Republican field is probably too difficult. There don't seem to be too many interesting elections due in 2023. Presidential election in Turkey, but I think we all know who wins that one before any votes are cast! |
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Post by mercian on Dec 31, 2022 15:31:17 GMT
Thanks eor for running this. It's a good bit of fun. No specific suggestions for next year apart from what's been mentioned already. Oh, perhaps will there have been a GE in 2023? |
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Post by pete on Dec 31, 2022 17:39:46 GMT
I predict a riot...lots of them this summer. People are being pushed to their limit with the Tory cost of living crisis.
An election end of year where Labour will win OM by around 14/16%
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