8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

And another expert…

“To talk of 5,000 deaths a day is a very high number. It is risky to push apocalyptic scenarios that are highly unlikely to happen,” said Professor Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute.

“What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf. The mood is changing everywhere."

“Cellular memory is still there for omicron and remains intact,” Balloux said.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

And another…


“A team at the University of Cape Town found that double-jabbed patients still had 70pc of the CD4 T cell response against the new variant, and full CD8 protection, despite the mutations.

“T cells are holding out against omicron, and the data is very consistent across vaccines,” they told the US magazine Science. “From everything we know about T cells, this is what they do - control a virus once you’ve been infected. So this is their time to shine.””

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

And more…

“B and T cell protection is holding up well but they did not have an immunology group working with them. They are just modellers who plug in what they are told on vaccine efficacy (ie antibody counts) and come with this data,” said Dix. 

He wrote a robust critique of some of the claims, as did Professor James Naismith from Oxford University, though in gentler language. 


“Dix said the political class in the UK - and more broadly in Europe - does not understand the difference between front-line antibodies and lasting cell memory, and is therefore succumbing to unnecessary alarmism.”

[Old Southendian]

Dec 22, 2021 19:33:23 GMT Old Southendian said:

Dec 22, 2021 10:21:06 GMT Danny said:

The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently?

They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules.

Getting back to this, I'm going to try something new, a picture. Not sure if this will work.

Anyway, it shows the YouGov Labour VI percentages - total and split by M/F - and the difference between the two over the course of the last year.  Unfortunately I realise now that the original post said a drop in female support for CON rather than a rise in female support for LAB.  So I'm going to have to do it all again.  But anyway, it seems to me that the female Labour VI is typically 5% above male, and that's sort of what I remember from the past.  There may be just a hint of a slight increase in recent data, but it's not particularly convincing yet.

To conclude on this one, here's an equivalent VI graph for Conservative VI from YouGov over the last year.  Again, there's no obvious trend in the male vs female VI, I'd say any effect (and there's not much) is entirely within errors.  The male vs female VI for Conservatives is actually pretty consistent.  Averaged over the year, the female percentage is about 1% down from male.  On the other hand, averaged over the year, the Labour female VI is about 5% larger than male.  So there's a consistent pattern that Labour does have slightly higher support from women, whereas Conservative support is pretty much the same for both, but I don't see much evidence that this has changed throughout the year.  I'm afraid that Woman's Hour might have been the victim of the usual problem of taking one or two individual polls too seriously.

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2021 10:17:28 GMT crossbat11 said:

The good Mr Kettle opines on a subject much discussed on these pages. When is a tipping point not a tipping point?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/23/humiliated-boris-johnson-history-failing-governments-tipping-pooint

Kettle thinks we might be there, but I'm less sure. Anyway, an interesting perspective from an experienced political commentator.

It would be nice to see some data on his "All failing governments eventually reach a similar point," ; and note his caveat -"There is no iron law about precisely how this works. Circumstances differ widely."

Well yes !

Being a fan of the close correlation between PM ratings & VI ( what else has a Con. supporter got just now ?) it would be nice to examine post war points at which the PM's ratings went south , and look for that VI "tipping point".

I had a look at Mark Packs Pollbase :-

www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

Very interesting to look back-but Leader ratings didnt start till '89..........and I haven't got the energy to plough through the data.

What can one say really?. BJ is persona non grata Big Time and will probably not recover. Brilliant Policy outcomes ( some chance ) won't compensate for loss of respect.

lululemonmustdobetter asks IF 50% increases in Energy bills will materialise. They have -my Jan 2022 renewal at 12m fixed is a 50% increase* There will be shed loads of pain next year on this front.....then there are interest rate rises ....and other inflation.

Can Cons recover a VI lead through all this ? With BJ as PM -imo-no chance. 

For the time being the  final strand of rope on which this Government is suspended is the outcome of its gamble on Omicron. The yawning gap between LOC risk averse public health caution in Wales and Scotland ; and risk taking for economic reasons in England, is waiting to swallow Johnson up if it all goes tits up in England .

And as I understand it , Cons' favoured Boris replacement -Sunak-is a keen advocate of this policy. 



* The company person on the phone actually advised me to go to variable rate-so now I am exposed to god knows what costs.

[charles]

eor -  a pleasure to correspond with you!  As you know, I have of late been lurkmg on this site more than contributing and I almost always read your posts with profit and enjoyment.  On the points you raise, your are obviously right.  This is more of a sen diagram than a list of characteristics that apply in every case (Wittgenstein might have said these workers share a 'family resemblance' rather than a set of defining characteristics that always need to be satisfied).  My archetypal essential workers would be care workers or perhaps check-out staff in supermarkets.  They are exposed to the public poorly paid, and not initially well-protected.  Apart from the moral issue, a testing regime is only going to be effective with them if accompanied by adequate compensation.  All too often the household is dependent on their wage (lone parent families) or only pays the mortgage etc because two adults are working.  Ideally if one gets Covid, the other stays home, but that can have a disastrous impact.  On the more general front, pay or remuneration, is obviously determined by the scarcity of a person's skills their commercial relevance, and the ability of an organisation to pay.  So football stars do better than care workers, even though they are less essential.  This is the way of the world, and care workers may want ther teams to pay the most attrctive wages.  But it's not ideal and needs modification.

@danny, thanks for your long and reasoned reply.  Looking at how long it was, I was minded not to read it but am glad I did.  In brief, I agree that much of the strain on the NHS has to do with chronic undefrfunding, and that something like the Swedish approach now has to underpin the new normal.  I do not agree that the approaching winter will not be unusually difficult, that vaccines are not a game-changer or that culling, treatments, and prior infection have had anything like the influence you attribut to them (clearly they have some impact).  Anyway thanks again for a thoughtful post. I no longer feel that posting here risks one being straffed by maniacal senior members equipped with brightly coloured planes!

[Deleted]

Blimey! Can we not just call this the Covid Thread and start another one called NON COVID?

Just wasted five minutes of my life scrolling past multiple posts on the subject.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@ Old Southendian


I'm afraid that Woman's Hour might have been the victim of the usual problem of taking one or two individual polls too seriously.



Also as I pointed out previously at just over 50% of the electorate it’s very difficult to make generalisation and women are far from being a homogenised group. Where Labour has recently had a massive lead is amongst younger women (incidentally one of the demographics with traditionally relatively low turnout) under Corbyn. Labour has always done better with younger voters, and there is the cliché that people get more conservative as they get older etc, but demographics that Labour also does well in tend to overlap, young, urban, BAME, non-house owning etc.



yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election


While at the risk of being too simplistic and stating the bleeding obvious, a demographic groups' tendency to vote one way or another will most likely be determined by the extent to which a party's agenda and policies reflect their concerns and interests and the extent to which that aligns to the strongest element of a voters identity is likely to be the key driver of their VI.

[Old Southendian]

Dec 23, 2021 12:05:04 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

@ Old Southendian


I'm afraid that Woman's Hour might have been the victim of the usual problem of taking one or two individual polls too seriously.



Also as I pointed out previously at just over 50% of the electorate it’s very difficult to make generalisation and women are far from being a homogenised group. Where Labour has recently had a massive lead is amongst younger women (incidentally one of the demographics with traditionally relatively low turnout) under Corbyn. Labour has always done better with younger voters, and there is the cliché that people get more conservative as they get older etc, but demographics that Labour also does well in tend to overlap, young, urban, BAME, non-house owning etc.



yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election


While at the risk of being too simplistic and stating the bleeding obvious, a demographic groups' tendency to vote one way or another will most likely be determined by the extent to which a party's agenda and policies reflect their concerns and interests and the extent to which that aligns to the strongest element of a voters identity is likely to be the key driver of their VI.

Thanks for the link to that article.  I'm sure I've read it at the time, but worth another look.  The age profile is going to be interesting to watch over the next few years.

[barbara]

Dec 23, 2021 12:04:19 GMT @crofty said:

Blimey! Can we not just call this the Covid Thread and start another one called NON COVID?

Just wasted five minutes of my life scrolling past multiple posts on the subject.

Oh please yes!

[crossbat11]

colin

Like you, I've been delving into polling data that might provide some clues about what trends and indicators presage a change in government, or the passing of a tipping point, but a consistent pattern is hard/impossible to find. Leadership and trust with the economy are undoubtedly important factors but other voting determinants regularly come in and out of play in terms of salience.

I wonder, as Kettle does, whether electorates get to a point where the desire for an alternative governing party and a change in political credo, becomes so acute that it overrides specific feelings about leadership and economic trust? How presidential have elections become I wonder? Could Sunak, for example, despite decent personal ratings, ever prosper electorally if the majority of the electorate have just had enough of Toryism and a divided party? And how well regarded does Starmer have to be to benefit from the boredom and disillusionment. In such a political climate, do Starmer and Reeves have to be ahead of say Sunak and Javid on leadership and the economy to win if enough voters have just had enough of Tory Governments?

All parties get there eventually. The interesting thing now is if this Tory Party and Government have got there yet? Will current voter antipathy bed in and it won't much matter then who's at the wheel as the good ship HMS Tory heads for the rocks. Change the Captain, yank the wheel but the ship stubbornly won't turn.

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2021 12:16:39 GMT barbara said:

Dec 23, 2021 12:04:19 GMT @crofty said:

Blimey! Can we not just call this the Covid Thread and start another one called NON COVID?

Just wasted five minutes of my life scrolling past multiple posts on the subject.

Oh please yes!

Bugger! I don’t know how to do it Barbara.

(I say that a lot...)

[mandolinist]

Dec 23, 2021 12:34:57 GMT crossbat11 said:

colin

Like you, I've been delving into polling data that might provide some clues about what trends and indicators presage a change in government, or the passing of a tipping point, but a consistent pattern is hard/impossible to find. Leadership and trust with the economy are undoubtedly important factors but other voting determinants regularly come in and out of play in terms of salience.

I wonder, as Kettle does, whether electorates get to a point where the desire for an alternative governing party and a change in political credo, becomes so acute that it overrides specific feelings about leadership and economic trust? How presidential have elections become I wonder? Could Sunak, for example, despite decent personal ratings, ever prosper electorally if the majority of the electorate have just had enough of Toryism and a divided party? And how well regarded does Starmer have to be to benefit from the boredom and disillusionment. In such a political climate, do Starmer and Reeves have to be ahead of say Sunak and Javid on leadership and the economy to win if enough voters have just had enough of Tory Governments?

All parties get there eventually. The interesting thing now is if this Tory Party and Government have got there yet? Will current voter antipathy bed in and it won't much matter then who's at the wheel as the good ship HMS Tory heads for the rocks. Change the Captain, yank the wheel but the ship stubbornly won't turn.

[mandolinist]

I seem to have messed up a previous reply, so trying again re:tipping points and change of leadership.
It seems possible that a change of leadership could revitalise the Conservative popularity, as Thatcher to Major did, but I question how many times they can pull off this trick. May to Johnson worked, but I think Johnson to Sunak or whoever could push the electorate too far.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 0:21:11 GMT @laszlo said:

graham

A very long time ago I wrote a paper on choosing the timeframe. Depending how you would want to do it (like 1912-1967), you can create a radical change narrative, or just the opposite, an incremental one - in order that... It needed ... (Like the German military of WW1 needed the huge expansion of the 1890-1910 period). As it attacked both the institutionalist and the path dependency approaches, no journal published it, but the conference paper is still cited. I used the example of the collapse of state socialism in Hungary. If you used 1990, it is all radical change, but if you looked at path dependency, you could go back to 1962 (at least) and the changes wouldn't be radical in 1990. It is an epistemological problem that has to be transparent. Neither narrative are false or right, just needs transparency both in the analysis and in the conclusion.

Interesting point about precursors, what things led to the big changes we experience.

Maxwell’s equations, his encapsulation of Electromagnetism, published in 1861, and 1862, formed part of the second wave of the industrial revolution, along with things like the revolution in chemistry etc.

As precursors they are hugely significant. But in terms of change experienced at the time, many of the outcomes were not immediately experienced.

It was a while before Heaviside adapted the equations to work out the principles behind the Telegraph and these got adopted practically, and later still before they led to Wireless radio.

Maxwell’s equations were part of what led to Relativity, which also didn’t have much immediate effect on our lives. Played a part subsequently in nuclear power, and GPS these days though.

The first wave of the industrial revolution was underpinned by Newton’s revolution in science. But again it took a while: he published the Principia in 1687.

First computer - there might be some debate about when that happened, what fully constitutes a computer, though again, initially the impact was limited compared to now as there were only a few. However, just a few could make quite the difference, e.g. the use of Colossus to crack the enigma codes in the war.

[barbara]

Dec 23, 2021 12:49:10 GMT mandolinist said:

I seem to have messed up a previous reply, so trying again re:tipping points and change of leadership.
It seems possible that a change of leadership could revitalise the Conservative popularity, as Thatcher to Major did, but I question how many times they can pull off this trick. May to Johnson worked, but I think Johnson to Sunak or whoever could push the electorate too far.

I think there is a tipping point. Major was a decent man and a decent PM but a combination of Black Wednesday and sleaze and 18 years in power meant that the public had had enough of Tories and Blair was there and ready. Similarly, Brown, while personally very flawed was capable and actually DID galvanise the world in response to the financial crash but after 13 years and Iraq, the public were ready for a change. It says much for how they really didn't think Cameron and Tories were ready, that Cameron didn't get an overall majority in 2010. So the adage that governments lose rather than oppositions win is reasonably true and I think the public are ready for a change from the Tories -  but the opposition has to at least look as if it's government ready. That's Starmer's task over the next 2 years.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 23, 2021 11:55:21 GMT colin said:

Dec 23, 2021 10:17:28 GMT crossbat11 said:

The good Mr Kettle opines on a subject much discussed on these pages. When is a tipping point not a tipping point?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/23/humiliated-boris-johnson-history-failing-governments-tipping-pooint

Kettle thinks we might be there, but I'm less sure. Anyway, an interesting perspective from an experienced political commentator.

Can Cons recover a VI lead through all this ? With BJ as PM -imo-no chance. 

Will the media big up Starmer? Have they turned utterly on Boris, or was it a temporary thing as with Cameron, depressing his VI to chasten him whereupon they’ll rescue him for the election? Are the media are going to big up Starmer now? I can’t say I’ve seen much sign of it myself thus far, but maybe others have?

[Deleted]

crossbat11



@"I wonder, as Kettle does, whether electorates get to a point where the desire for an alternative governing party and a change in political credo, becomes so acute that it overrides specific feelings about leadership and economic trust?"



I'm not convinced of that. It feels like an opinion from within a political party-whereas the vast majority of voters live their lives outside them. It seems to presuppose that most voters have a "political credo". My inclination is that they don't. I suppose I could add "these days" , because party membership was three times as high in the 50s ( though even then only 4% of the electorate) than it is now.



I think the vast majority of voters today have a retail approach to politics. I don't mean purely mercenary-I'm sure social as well as financial outcomes are important. And to some extent what we could call overarching values-things like perceptions of fairness , which is a key decider imo.



So I think the idea of voters rejecting one or other 'ism as a credo doesn't feel right to me in the 21st Century.

There is always a way back with the right policies and leadership , and getting those elusive boxes ticked in voters minds-fairness, common sense-the feeling in a voters mind that if push came to shove they would be doing it that way in those circumstances.



.........but this may be complete bollocks.

I do think Starmer is assembling a team that begins to look normal-and competent. Thats a good start. 

[steve]

Paul
I actually agree with you regarding the covid posting.
But rather than another thread why can't we just allocate a time of the day for covid posting between 5am and 7.45 is good for me after that I have to feed the kids and take the cats to work .

[Mark]

*** ADMIN ***

Re-Covid.

I will ask, once again, please consider where you post. If your post is relevant to polling, how the various parties are performing, public response to covid measures - then it's fine to post it here.

If, however, your post is about the effectivenes of vaccines, whether the current strain is less potent or anything else that is not about polling, there is a Covid thread ready and waiting in 'Issue Specific' for you to post in.

I know there can sometimes be a crossover between the two, but, please think about where you post.

This is the second time I have had to raise this.

In answer to a query of whether I can move stuff, yes.

I can move individual posts and I can move a whole thread. What I cannot do is select multiple posts within a thread and move them all at once. I have to move each post individually, which can be very time consuming.

[somerjohn]

Barbara: the opposition has to at least look as if it's government ready. That's Starmer's task over the next 2 years.

Interesting point. As you say, Cameron had barely reached that point in 2010, and my (possibly flawed) recollection from then is that a lot of people quite liked the idea of a Tory government dependent on LD support, which would rein in the wilder excesses that people remembered from previous Tory governments (poll tax, Major's 'bastards' etc).

Of course, it didn't quite work out like that, with the LDs acting more as facilitators than restrainers when it came to austerity and slashing social spending.

I wonder if disdain for LD weakness has now faded sufficiently that history might repeat itself, but this time with Labour's electability enhanced by the prospect of needing LD support?

We're certainly not at the point yet where this is any more than hypothetical, but as we saw in N Shropshire, aversion to the Tories combined with lukewarm support for Labour can crystallise into a LD surge.

[Danny]

Charles,

it's the red arrows. I was looking for an interesting non copyright image in a hurry. It does perhaps come across as a bit combative

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2021 12:51:23 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

The first wave of the industrial revolution was underpinned by Newton’s revolution in science. But again it took a while: he published the Principia in 1687.

Oddly, the first wave of industrial revolution used technologies of the medieval times - essentially water, cogwheels and donkeys. The picture of coal clouds, etc. was a kind of new narrative that had nothing to do with the industrial revolution itself (but relevant when it became systemised and it indeed used Newton's theory).

This heavy reliance on medieval technologies was one of the causes of the relatively small factories in Britain (but many of them). The Sheffield steel industry of the first industrial revolution is fascinating in this respect.

[statgeek]

Dec 22, 2021 23:57:57 GMT oldnat said:

Windows 10 on a laptop. When I refresh, it goes back to the last comment that I made. My laptop may have the narcissist bug.

It's taking you to the most recent cookie refresh, which would have been when you made a post. To bookmark a post, dropdown on the right and bookmark the 'link to post' if required.

[Deleted]

crossbat11

As a follow up to my response to you, I read this . It does tell a story , over 30 years, of disengagement from politics and a decline in "identification " with a particular party.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bsa.natcen.ac.uk%2Fmedia%2F38455%2Fbsa30_politics_final.pdf&clen=220675&chunk=true

( copy and paste into Google)

An interesting trend is an increase in "non -electoral" activities like signing petitions and contacting MPs.

[statgeek]

Dec 23, 2021 12:04:19 GMT @crofty said:

Blimey! Can we not just call this the Covid Thread and start another one called NON COVID?

Just wasted five minutes of my life scrolling past multiple posts on the subject.

Totally. Screw this.

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2021 13:14:01 GMT steve said:

Paul
I actually agree with you regarding the covid posting.
But rather than another thread why can't we just allocate a time of the day for covid posting between 5am and 7.45 is good for me after that I have to feed the kids and take the cats to work .

Midnight to six a.m.works best for me. Alternatively take notice of what Mark has requested. The main thread is just for politics and footy (other way around of course) so please show some respect to the SITE ADMINISTRATOR.

By the way Steve, what do your cats do? I guess they could work as a team for Mousecatchers Inc. if they have no other qualifications.

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2021 14:07:30 GMT statgeek said:

Dec 22, 2021 23:57:57 GMT oldnat said:

Windows 10 on a laptop. When I refresh, it goes back to the last comment that I made. My laptop may have the narcissist bug.

It's taking you to the most recent cookie refresh, which would have been when you made a post. To bookmark a post, dropdown on the right and bookmark the 'link to post' if required.

The trouble with people who know stuff is that they have no idea how to explain it in very, very, very easy stages to total suffers like me.

[Deleted]

I am within one month of my contract renewal date for Gas + Elec.

My existing supplier's offer for another 12 month Fix is DOUBLE my current tariff. !

                         --------------





"Nearly 19,000 NHS staff were absent for Covid-related reasons on 19 December - up 54% on the previous week."

BBC

[neilj]

Dec 23, 2021 14:19:01 GMT @crofty said:

Dec 23, 2021 13:14:01 GMT steve said:

Paul
I actually agree with you regarding the covid posting.
But rather than another thread why can't we just allocate a time of the day for covid posting between 5am and 7.45 is good for me after that I have to feed the kids and take the cats to work .

Midnight to six a.m.works best for me. Alternatively take notice of what Mark has requested. The main thread is just for politics and footy (other way around of course) so please show some respect to the SITE ADMINISTRATOR.

By the way Steve, what do your cats do? I guess they could work as a team for Mousecatchers Inc. if they have no other qualifications.

There is also a separate thread for sport, which would include football 😀