8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 12, 2021 6:39:34 GMT robert said:

Dec 12, 2021 6:25:23 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

You can however select the italics button in the create post screen if that helps Robert.

(And there are ^superscript buttons etc.)

Ah extra buttons when you click on Reply, rather than Quick reply. So many features. Thanks Carfrew👍

Indeed, no probs Robert.

[Danny]

Dec 12, 2021 1:06:40 GMT eor said:

obviously if it were still growing at 400% per week that would be much worse than simply doubling. I think the key questions that remain tho are whether there's any differential impact when the very recent case surge amongst younger people inevitably spreads to older people,...

Now that depends on your model of spread. If it's an epidemic amongst 20 year olds which takes a month to reach 80 year olds, but then it is self sustaining amongst the 80s. Or it cannot self sustain amongst 80 year olds and they are catching it only by contact with 20s, so when the 20s stop having it, it also dies out amongst the 80s.

There's some decent evidence from Zoe that cases amongst the 30-39 went up a week after the 0-9 had a wave and then fell off once 0-9 rates fell. So the parents cases were imposed on them by what was happening amongst their kids. While the same happened with kids 10-19 and 40-49 parents. While 20-29 do their own thing, and older groups than these have progressively fewer cases as you get older. Amongst the oldest cases are minimum 1/10 falling to 1/40 those younger. That means R must be proportionately lower too and below sustainability given R averages only maybe 4 at its fastest.

In this model, once it's over amongst the young it ends for everyone. And that's why it has always been so important for the young to catch it fast. And why we have killed more people with a policy of preventing spread amongst the young.

whether the extremely high positivity rate alec was quoting indicates that cases have temporarily outstripped their ability to test for them,

Fair point...depends on their testing capacity and strategy.

and what impact (if any) we see when these many tens of thousands of surge cases start feeding through into the death stats over the next week or two. 

not so fair. One measure so far is that deaths are running much lower than in previous waves for the number of cases. As has been deemed an important measure by the uk government during the Delta wave and proof vaccine is working. If there will be more deaths to come.....they have started late.

what happens if it spreads rapidly through the ICU team and they all have to take a few days off in the space of a fortnight?

same as happened last time, I imagine. They coped. But the point is immunity in SA caused it to be milder than the last and so the overload here should be milder too. Or do you agree with me vaccine was a waste of time and SA did better than the UK by younger people just catching it than if they had been vaccinated?

However you are absolutely right in general- we need to stop sending people home who test positive but don't have symptoms. Health maybe should be an exception to this because of the especially vulnerable patients, but most industries should halt test and trace and only sick people go home.Time to treat a covid cold the same as a corona cold.

But that always was the optimum strategy. People aren't as thick as experts believe. In Hastings in 2019 no one noticed the covid outbreak. Nor did they in Milan and turin. In general doing nothing different to a normal cold/flu has worked well where it has been allowed to happen.

[steve]

EOR
Wouldn't argue at all about the potential staff shortages caused by rapid spread of a relatively mild illness if the requirement is to remain isol ation.
Of course the Scottish government policy of requiring all household members whether vaccinated or not or infected or not to isolate as well with a rapid spreading variant is pretty much guaranteed to do the same thing.

Regard spread to older people in South Africa , existing behavioural changes and the fact that the vaccination rate in the over 60's in South Africa is over 70% may mitigate this. There's  no evidence of it happening so far.

Incidentally with yesterday's data included the week by week increase there has dropped to 76% down from 450% just ten days ago.

This fact is unlikely to find its way into our covid hysteria obsessed media

[Danny]

Dec 12, 2021 1:20:52 GMT mercian said:

I understand that the reasoning is that lower tax (on companies as well) will stimulate growth and reduce tax avoidance.  This may or may not work, but it's a refreshingly different approach to the old ConLabLib consensus.

Surely that has been the consensus since Thatcher?

The opposite argument is that if you tax people more they are forced to work harder to compensate their income lost to higher taxes. Give people tax breaks and they take more holidays and work part time. National income falls.

[steve]

Additional real world data rather than guesses.

According to South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases:

— Only about 30 per cent of those hospitalized with Covid-19 in recent weeks have been seriously ill, less than half the rate as during the first weeks of previous pandemic waves.

— Average hospital stays for Covid-19 have been shorter this time - about 2.8 days compared to eight days.

— Just 3 per cent of patients hospitalized recently with Covid-19 have died, versus about 20 per cent in the country's earlier outbreaks.

86% of hospital admissions are unvaccinated and two thirds under 40.

"As the Omicron variant sweeps through South Africa, Dr Unben Pillay( chair of an organisation representing 5000GP's) is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn’t had to send anyone to the hospital.


That’s one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the Omicron version really is causing milder Covid-19 than delta, even if it seems to be spreading faster.

“They are able to manage the disease at home," Pillay said of his patients. "Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation period.” said Pillay.

And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said."

Of course the situation could still deteriorate but it isn't at the moment.

[Danny]

carfrew,
the incident you report does add evidence that if you are bitten by a covid infected mouse you may catch covid. Isnt that evidence spread from animals to man is likely?

I wonder whether it's pretty common in fact as domestic animals almost always have contact with wild ones. But we seldom get animal diseases despite this mechanism where we get exposed. Perhaps the reason is not that those diseases cannot live in man but that we maintain our own colonies of tamed strains which keep us immune even to the wild animal strains.

The fact we have tamed corona viruses permanently circulating kept us largely immune to covid too. That's why the experts were wrong. Plan z always existed and would have worked better than what happened if only we had left it to our immune systems and natural behaviour patterns (yes, we do isolate automatically ).

[Danny]

jayblanc said:

This "Well, if it's just the people you normally have in the office, it's fine" thing is a fallacy that hugely annoys me, in that it is trivial to dismiss if you think about it for a moment.

Sure, *you* are just meeting with *your* colleagues. To you that appears to be a limited isolated list.

But then some of your colleagues are going to meet other different sets of colleagues that aren't in your set.

I disagree. We have always seen super spreading events where one person infects an entire party or church or race meeting. Including never being in the same room at the same time as others. Covid spreads through a group very readily and then is prevented from further spread because that group has limited contact with other groups.

Within a group it is limited mainly by members already being immune so despite exposure they don't catch it.things like masks or distancing work by reducing total exposure below the threshold our immune system can neutralise in one session. So might work while waiting to pay for shopping for ten minutes. But won't work all day long in the same building. WHO have always said it's dose which matters, time x rate of exposure. being locked in a box with others means the whole group gets it.

In 2020 we did relax measures one by one but nothing much happened until we started sending people back to work, and then especially when we returned kids to school. Recreating these groups caused the renewed spread. (but don't forget sending kids back only caused problems in N england not S.Probably because in the south the epidemic started earlier so they were largely immune from more exposure in the spring. We could have avoided a whole new wave had we been braver in the spring and kept kids in school. terrible mistake)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 12, 2021 7:32:35 GMT Danny said:

carfrew,
the incident you report does add evidence that if you are bitten by a covid infected mouse you may catch covid. Isnt that evidence spread from animals to man is likely?

I wonder whether it's pretty common in fact as domestic animals almost always have contact with wild ones. But we seldom get animal diseases despite this mechanism where we get exposed. Perhaps the reason is not that those diseases cannot live in man but that we maintain our own colonies of tamed strains which keep us immune even to the wild animal strains.

The fact we have tamed corona viruses permanently circulating kept us largely immune to covid too. That's why the experts were wrong. Plan z always existed and would have worked better than what happened if only we had left it to our immune systems and natural behaviour patterns (yes, we do isolate automatically ).

Well, there is the question of quite how much cross immunity is conferred by other corona viruses. I came across a study recently that suggested about ten percent of the population started out with effective immunity to Covid, which they presumed due to cross immunity from other colds etc.

it’s not just whether colds etc. confer cross-immunity, but how much this then might be undermined by ageing, vitamin D deficiencies, obesity etc. etc.

So it’s possible that people started out with more cross immunity but then this was eroded by other factors, lifestyle, modern life etc.

[hireton]

It's the BBC's fault apparently:

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Boris might be the BBC’s fault. All that exposure on Top Gear, HIGNFY etc.

[jimjam]

Conveniently overlooking that it was ITV who secured the Stratton video?

[barbara]

"That’s one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the Omicron version really is causing milder Covid-19 than delta, even if it seems to be spreading faster"

I do think that this is the more likely scenario. It certainly fits the pattern of earlier similar outbreaks. They never actually disappear but become much milder and more liveable with. I hope we don't rush to further restrictions before more evidence.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 12, 2021 8:39:37 GMT jimjam said:

Conveniently overlooking that it was ITV who secured the Stratton video?

I overlooked that too. 

[Danny]

did no one see that drama set in the bbc in wartime where it was instructed exactly what to say? Nothing different now.

You can see this in action if you look at the headline main news stories and contrast them to more independent reporting which happens in lower profile programs. Remarkable difference of tone which suggests the commissar infiltration is relatively limited these days. no doubt much strengthened over the last year though. Perhaps we need some more leaks like Marr saying he is quitting so he can speak his mind.

[t7g4]

Dec 12, 2021 1:06:22 GMT oldnat said:

Dec 12, 2021 0:46:55 GMT Danny said:

The only goal likely to be achieved by brexit is the destruction of the uk, so occams razor says that was the real purpose

Occam's razor - "the principle that in explaining a thing no more assumptions should be made than are necessary."

Assuming purpose from an assumption on outcome, requires two assumptions - neither of which is necessary.

It’s no different from Sir Starmer, raised in Surrey attended an independent school in Reigate. His wealth is estimated to be over £7m.

Let’s not get started with the Reform party either as most of the people in top are wealth off in society terms; educated privately.

Is there really any working class people left in politics?

[t7g4]

Dec 12, 2021 1:02:42 GMT tancred said:

Dec 12, 2021 0:58:13 GMT t7g4 said:

I don’t think Sunak will have any issues being accepted by Tory supporters. The party needs a competent leader.

A commentator on here mentioned that the Tories could end up reverting to the mid 30s range 2010-2015 GE.

2024 Prediction unless the next leader cuts through.
Conservatives: 37%
Labour 34%
Lib Dems: 8%
Greens: 5%
Reform:7%
SNP: 5%
Others: 4%

We'll see.  Don't forget that the 'Indian doctor' image of Sunak may be reassuring to the middle class and middle aged voters but his wealth and privilege (and in some cases ethnicity) may put off working class Tories.

It’s no different from Sir Starmer, raised in Surrey attended an independent school in Reigate. His wealth is estimated to be over £7m.

Let’s not get started with the Reform party either as most of the people in top are wealth off in society terms; educated privately.

Is there really any working class people left in politics?

[neilj]

Dec 12, 2021 8:31:21 GMT hireton said:

It's the BBC's fault apparently:

Yes apparently the people to blame for Johnson and his associates breaking the lock down rules and lying about it, is not Johnson, nor his associates, but the BBC for reporting it. How dare they and every other news media organisation report he and his Government breaking the rules while telling others to follow them.

[jib]

Biggest Labour lead in 7 years according to the newspapers.

Indicative that despite the rather wooden delivery, KS is seen as a man of integrity.

The public (or at least the voting public) losing their belief in Johnson.

So many of Johnson's woes are made of basically stupid political calls, and I'm afraid it does to reflect his arrogance and bluster.

Paterson could have been suspended for a few weeks, but no, Johnson wanted to get shot of the whole Parliamentary Standard mechanism! Why not just put your hands up and say "yes, there was a party?".

Allied to an incompetent Cabinet, it doesn't bode well.

[Deleted]

@jim jam

@"Mordaunt would be the the one I would be most worried about"

An interesting one. You never see her mentioned.

Perhaps the 2019 Con intake will have ideas like that.?

[chrisaberavon]

Good Morning all.
I saw a reference to Keir Starmer's school in Reigate.
It lost its voluntary aided status in 1976 when Keir was in 'form four'. Surrey County Council finally gave in to the pressure to abolish that method of social mobility.
Port Talbot (Aberavon) lost two grammar schools much earlier than in 1976, sadly IMO.
Canvassing at Mitcham in 1966 GE (when Labour actually won with a double digit lead- the first such win since 1945, not to be repeated until New Labour thirty one years later) showed lots of support for the abolition of the 11 plus.
I don't know what the polling effect would be, though, concerning education at htis strange time

[Deleted]

A quick scan through ST:-

Sunak nicking some of the Social Care Levy for £5bn pa cost of "permanent" annual booster jabs,

Baker "taking over" Conservative Way Forward Group-lower taxes and less covid restrictions. Good luck with that !

More reports of parties in Whitehall, They all seem to be "celebrating" something. People leaving. Christmas. Finishing the Budget. Working Hard ( !).

Haven't seen reports of a Party celebrating the last Party yet. This world of parties at the taxpayers expense is organised by the permanent residents and their bosses-not the here today gone tomorrow Ministers . I doubt whether a minister has the power to tell these people they can't have a party. Its a world entirely segregated from and insulated against the Real World inhabited by the average voter.

Any Minister who "popped in " to show some sort of camaraderie with these privileged party addicts whilst the country at large was locked in, deserves every criticism heaped upon them.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 11, 2021 23:55:31 GMT eor said:

crossbat11 - thanks for your thoughts and idle musings, I've missed them!

I agree with your outline about Johnson being a figure of ridicule, and how dangerous that can be, tho what I'd note on your comparisons to May and Major was that firstly May remained as PM for nearly two years after the shambolic conference speech, and secondly Major's affair with Currie didn't come out until years after he left office (and the leadership) so had no bearing on his departure - that was pretty directly down to him losing literally half his MPs in the election :-)

Whether things are already fatal for Johnson, or soon will be, I'm less clear. The zipwire alone would have finished the ambitions of most contenders, as would being an oft-sacked charlatan or having so many offensive articles written under his name, but the next two words when discussing him always seem to be "and yet...". Of course, nothing lasts forever but when someone is a serial exception to normal rules than the 20th iteration of "surely *this* time..." needs some powerful framing to be convincing.

What worried me at the ascendency of Johnson and then 2019GE and ever since is what it says about the attitude of the Conservative party and the electorate to an evidently poor character. Yes he needed Brexit as a horse to ride but, given his personal failings that were already widely known, he was still allowed into contention and still won. In other times he wouldn't have been allowed near the paddock, let alone mount up. It's rather worrying that both the Tory party and UK electorate both appear to have accepted that appearances on comedy programmes are more important than political and personal probity and integrity. Government by 'I'm a Celebrity' is next.    

[John Chanin]

Dec 12, 2021 5:39:32 GMT robert said:

Ah, so HTML doesn't work on here then?

You have to use square brackets[] not <>

[steve]

Tg74
Little correction for you.
Kier Starmer is the son of a nurse and a mechanic he went to a state grammar school in Surrey while he was there it became an independent school , like all the other students already in attendance Starmers family were not required to pay fees as this was a condition required of the institution.

Starmer has inherited no wealth from his family his major asset other than his family home is some agricultural land that he's given to his mother to use as a donkey sanctuary!
Starmer is wealthy, he's never denied it because he's a highly successful lawyer and until 2015 the most senior public prosecutor in England. Starmer took a £150,000 a year pay cut when he became an MP. Starmer's wife Victoria is also a lawyer which assists with their very comfortable lifestyle.

You get to have your own opinion you don't get to have your personal facts.

[Danny]

Recently we had a discussion whether there are any restrictions in place in S Africa and someone found a uk government website saying there are. Marr on bbc1 just reported there are none, but cases there falling anyway.

The total number of omicron cases is also rather small. The only concerning thing was fast rise, which has always happened with new variants and is already slowing.

Come the vote next Tuesday it's going to be very obvious this was a stupid mistake which von ate going to oppose in droves making johnson look stupid and labour too.

[Deleted]

Dec 12, 2021 9:57:33 GMT Danny said:

Come the vote next Tuesday it's going to be very obvious this was a stupid mistake which von ate going to oppose in droves making johnson look stupid and labour too.

ST reports :-

"The rebels include 58 who have already publicly indicated their opposition to the new restrictions — the subject of a vote on Tuesday.



In addition, more than half a dozen parliamentary private secretaries may be prepared to resign from the government rather than back the prime minister’s plan B to combat the Omicron variant.

David Davis, Esther McVey, Liam Fox and Greg Clark are among former cabinet members to have voiced concerns about the scaling-up of Covid restrictions.

Half a dozen parliamentary private secretaries are prepared to resign rather than back the new Covid rules. Among those ready to quit is Danny Kruger, the MP for Devizes and a parliamentary aide to Michael Gove who was once Johnson’s political secretary in Downing Street. It would be a symbolic blow to the prime minister. Jacob Young, Gove’s other aide, has told friends he will avoid the vote. Claire Coutinho, an aide to Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Joy Morrissey, bag carrier for Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, are causing concern to the whips."

[steve]

Danny
I doubt massive over reaction/excessive caution by our government in response to omicron will have any impact on the election, given all political parties ,other than a few far right libertarians in the Tories ( a stopped clock is still right twice a day) appear to share the same misguided group think.

[Danny]

UK government medical advisor confirmed that as yet there is no confirmed case of anyone dying from omicron

[steve]

We had a discussion a couple of weeks ago I think Alec participated and EOR
On the development of covid cases in South Africa and quite rightly we all agree death rates would lag behind hospital admission and case rates by a couple of weeks .
Currently the doubling rate of covid cases is extending and is now around 9-10 up from around 2 and thankfully deaths have not risen at all and are in fact 13% lower than last week.
While caution is prudent panic never is.

[neilj]

Dec 12, 2021 10:12:50 GMT steve said:

We had a discussion a couple of weeks ago I think Alec participated and EOR
On the development of covid cases in South Africa and quite rightly we all agree death rates would lag behind hospital admission and case rates by a couple of weeks .
Currently the doubling rate of covid cases is extending and is now around 9-10 up from around 2 and thankfully deaths have not risen at all and are in fact 13% lower than last week.
While caution is prudent panic never is.

My understanding that deaths reported often lag by a week or more from the actual day of death, certainly the case in the UK and I  cannot believe South Africa will be much different. Many deaths that took place today may not appear until a week or so's time in the figures, they are then added to the correct day. So the death figures for yesterday, for example, will likely show a rise in a weeks time

My view is that it is still too early to make a judgement, the figures look promising but even if the serious cases of Omicron are 50% of those of delta, if you have 3 times as many cases of omicron you are still in worse position