Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2021 8:57:33 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by birdseye on Dec 23, 2021 16:47:17 GMT
I am absolutely sure it has. That article is from February when small companies in particular were struggling to adapt to a change from home tradesales ( which is what the EU was) to exporting. Despite having had since 2016 to prepare. And half of companies wont be half of sales but will mostly be the sort of small business that used to send packets through the mail.
Any change brings adaptaion problems
|
|
|
|
Post by birdseye on Dec 23, 2021 16:50:38 GMT
What I predicted for Brexit though, and what has come to pass, is that the UK economy gained massively from single market membership because it allowed millions more small and micro businesses to access one of the world's largest markets. This has now gone, and all those SME's are suffering as a consequence.
Likely you are correct. Unlike in Germany, the large majority of SMEs here shy away from exporting at all, so those who have enjoyed the EU as a home market will be having difficulty from lack of skills and support even if they havent simply pulled out.
|
|
|
|
Post by pete on Dec 27, 2021 11:56:43 GMT
What I predicted for Brexit though, and what has come to pass, is that the UK economy gained massively from single market membership because it allowed millions more small and micro businesses to access one of the world's largest markets. This has now gone, and all those SME's are suffering as a consequence.
Likely you are correct. Unlike in Germany, the large majority of SMEs here shy away from exporting at all, so those who have enjoyed the EU as a home market will be having difficulty from lack of skills and support even if they havent simply pulled out.
Your posts to Alec and I contradict each other. |
|
|
|
Post by pete on Dec 27, 2021 12:00:20 GMT
Being an EU member stopped us doing this? |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 27, 2021 17:48:38 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Dec 28, 2021 7:32:21 GMT
Small traders who were able to treat Europe as a domestic market and sell retail into it were always going to be screwed. Remember that for Conservatives (and economists) a small business has a multi-million pound turnover and hundreds of employees - not what us general public think of as a small business. These large businesses are so overwhelmingly important in aggregate that they are all economists and Conservatives think about. For a large business the friction is a minor issue. The cost of dealing with the bureaucracy is minimal compared to the value of the export, since they export in bulk and not into the retail market. For a genuinely small business all they can now do is export wholesale to a European trading company, who will then capture most of the profit. It has always surprised me how much real small businesses support the Conservatives. I have always assumed this to be because of the opportunities for tax evasion and regulation evasion. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 5:30:14 GMT
FWIW then Sefcovic is making threats in press WRT to the other country that told the EU to 'Küss meinen Arsch' Swiss-EU relationship could fall apart if talks fail, EU's Sefcovic says
www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-eu-relationship-could-fall-apart-if-talks-fail-eus-sefcovic-says-2021-12-28/Not my polity of course and I don't speaka da Slovak (and google translate is not much help) but 'Choď do pekla' Serfovic and Holy Roman Empire v5 (#4 if your German as they don't count Napoleon) Who knows maybe one day Swiss join CPTPP (or via UK-Swiss agreements then UK can be their advocate to rWorld with some quid pro quo)  |
|
|
|
Post by birdseye on Jan 3, 2022 17:37:30 GMT
Likely you are correct. Unlike in Germany, the large majority of SMEs here shy away from exporting at all, so those who have enjoyed the EU as a home market will be having difficulty from lack of skills and support even if they havent simply pulled out.
Your posts to Alec and I contradict each other. Not really. Is it better after the initial shock and adaptation? Of course it will be. Is it still an offputting issue for the tiny businesses who dealt with the EU as a home market and via postal packages. Of course it is.
In the end the difficulties in adapting will be concentrated on those tiny businesses and it will of course be both EU companies selling into the UK as well as UK companies selling to the EU. Plus of course the agri businsses that are targetted with silly restrictions.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2022 22:23:23 GMT
Fresh polling from YG:
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2022 9:15:36 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2022 9:22:21 GMT
Lots of vastly more important issues at the moment but a quick 2c on Poots (DUP) www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60236169?1. With Stormont elections soon and DUP feeling they needed to show their 'Unionism' then 'slow hand clap' for a populist 'stunt' (and NI opinion polling shows that whilst DUP might unite the Arch-Unionist vote under their banner (ie reclaim VI let to TUV) they risk losing more votes to UUP or Alliance [1]) 2. It was not the UK triggering A16, it was NI's FM - important difference.3. That will make the response from EC-EU and US more 'interesting' 4. It will also likely mean that Truss and hence CON HMG have had the A16 bluff called (so I'd prepared to accept #1 is a 'bouncing' effort from Poots to force the issue) 5. Do DUP have any memory of how CON HMG have treated them in the past? (see #3 and get ready to hear the 'beep, beep, beep' of the bus reversing back over DUP - again) I'm not predicting the future but we're already seeing more 'One Island' trade and perhaps politics moves that way in due course as well. SF are likely to get FM after Stormont elections but opinion polls don't yet show much desire for a 'border poll' - that might change and DUP have IMO overly focussed on the short-term (as most politicians do) and have ignored the recent past (ie CON HMG is 'England first' as that is where they have to win votes) and the longer-term implications. [1] Most recent Lucid Talks poll for NI (25Jan'21): www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/lt-ni-tracker-poll-winter-2022 |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Feb 4, 2022 9:36:27 GMT
Just a quirky thing I heard last night but don't know if true.
Sue Grays is the permanent secretary in the department in charge of policy on the union and the constitution.
Due to some convoluted checks and balances arrangement she may have to rule on the borders checks if the NI Executive collapses.
Shame prof H not around to advise if this is true.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 10:53:17 GMT
Just a quirky thing I heard last night but don't know if true. 1. Sue Grays is the permanent secretary in the department in charge of policy on the union and the constitution. 2. Due to some convoluted checks and balances arrangement she may have to rule on the borders checks if the NI Executive collapses. Shame prof H not around to advise if this is true. 1. See: ' The Second Permanent Secretary leads on the Union and the Constitution, responsible for both the Union Directorate and the UK Governance Group'
www.gov.uk/government/people/sue-gray2. Not so sure about that. Also not sure of the relevance or importance. Politicians will decide the final outcome (in EC-EU, NI, Westminster and maybe with some comments from US (hopefully!)) |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Feb 4, 2022 12:52:01 GMT
@tw - "Also not sure of the relevance or importance. Politicians will decide the final outcome.."
They will, in due course, but what I think @jim jam is hinting at is what may happen regarding the civil service if UK/NI politicians instruct them to cease checks required under the NIP. This would be illegal, under UK law, and there is a significant issue over whether the civil service would be legally permitted to break the law.
We live in a country which operates under an established legal order, and where ministers cannot issue instructions to suit themselves*. That, I think, is the issue here.
*Similar issue to the armed forces making it clear recently that they wouldn't push back refugee boats in the Channel just because Priti Patel told them to, because it isn't a legally defendable action.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 14:50:10 GMT
Lucid Talks are picking out and retweeting relevant findings from their most recent poll. Note the very strong 'partisan' views but that the 'median' response for all would fall just inside: 'I support a Northern Ireland Protocol but as it stands it needs some adjustments'and EC-EU have offered 'some' adjustments /photo/1 and for some NI press views, then the Belfast Torygraph on DUP's 'stunt' |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 15:13:24 GMT
jimjam Was your source: I found that retweeted on Henig's twitter feed but I would urge you read the original from Sam McBride of the Belfast Torygraph (comments in brackets) - for now it is clear from industry sources that the checks have not been stopped as he ordered
(so no one needs to do anything and DUP look like impotent fools) - there seems to be a sense of confusion within the NI Civil Service over whether to follow Edwin Poots' order to stop Irish Sea border SPS checks (so if/when there is a problem then it is an NI Civil Service problem, at least initially) See previous posts on the important issue of DUP (ie NI) ' spitting the dummy' rather than Westminster having to use their 'bluff' (ie UK did not trigger A16 but DUP decided to take unilateral action on behalf of NI executive, which they then effectively ended with the part2 of their 'stunt' when Givan (FM) resigned. CON HMG will likely have to get involved at some point at a EC-EU to UK level (with some nudge from US perhaps?) but perhaps with a large basin of clean water as they (again) chuck DUP under the bus and wash their hands on pushing for further concessions on the NIP and agree a 'final'[1] Special Status arrangement for NI PS Still not sure why the UK Civil Servant happening to be the same Sue Gray of Gray Report Part1 (and Part2 to come) fame has any relevance. Perhaps you could explain. [1] 'Final' in the sense of no further significant involvement for UK HMG (this one or any future one). There are various mechanisms within the NIP that ensure it will stay relevant to NI politics (although hard to ever see a majority to rip the NIP up). It's also not impossible UK HMG have some future involvement but the key issue for 'Little Englander' True Br-Leavers is to ensure the NIP gets to a 'final' Special Status before GE'24 (for reasons already mentioned). Once again, the 'final' state is looking pretty close to what I expected in the beginning but we had to go through the 'surrender monkey' approach of May-Robbins and then Frosty fixing that to get there (and we're not quite there yet of course, but close)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 16:31:43 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2022 12:30:32 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2022 12:31:12 GMT
More from A.Trev on trade deals (and I'll move the info to the Issue Specific thread later but some folks might find the info interesting on the main thread)
US trade deals in progress. Divide and conquer by opening up what is IMO a 'third track' (#1 = direct, #2 = hope US join CPTPP, #3 = pick 'em off state by state)
|
|
|
|
Post by js on Mar 6, 2022 23:12:21 GMT
I would like to take this opportunity to tell you all that I told you so. Early days of course but the issue of democratic consent seems to be resolved, for now at least. Interesting to see how it will play out but for the moment I think if a prize for biggest contribution to the European project was to be awarded, Putin and Farage would be top contenders. FWIW my personal opinion is that the EU will move in the general direction of tighter integration with a slight left of centre “flavour”. Mutualised debt is already underway and I don’t think Union tax harmonisation, including a Union wide element, is that far off. Substantial transfers from richer nations to poorer will feature, this being the LOC element. A common defence policy and a common army is also in the works (yes Brexiteers, you were right) and I think will come to pass in the next decade. The big hurdle to overcome is of course democratic consent for all this. The EU parliament could provide this but participation is woefully low. The other hurdle being undemocratic governments in some member states but paradoxically, that problem might provide the answer to the legitimacy issue depending on how it is solved. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 11:12:45 GMT
The whole problem with brexit is that different people wanted different things- 1. from the right wing free trade with ROW to the 2. left wing government intervention Moved to the Issue Specific thread so as to say this just one more time. The way to achieve 1+2 is to consider 'gravity' and looks at trade balances. We want MORE trade with rWorld (and rWorld is growing a lot faster than EU). We want LESS trade with EU (where we had a 'woeful and widening' trade deficit, which will likely get slightly worse before it gets better) The kind of trade we have with EU is often in things we can+should 'buy/sell more of in UK' (as per Reeves view) but we need the ability to move independently on maintaining and developing competitive advantages in what we're good at exporting (fin.services, fin.tech, life sciences, green tech, etc - all stuff with very little 'gravity' implications) I appreciate CON HMG aren't doing much on #2 (Lexit) side and I like the sound of what Reeves is saying - but as you point out, we need some flesh on those 'vague' bones. |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Apr 8, 2022 7:08:54 GMT
A thread from Daniel Lambert explaining the lorry queues have formed in Kent because the UK Government's new IT system has crashed:
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 20, 2022 9:14:16 GMT
Very glad the 'anti-growth' Braverman has gone given her narrow minded view of 'take back control' via a points based immigration policy. Hopefully we can now sign a trade deal with India. |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 14, 2022 20:12:24 GMT
Just thought would put this Issue Specific thread back to the top of the list in case anyone wants to put their Brexit and Trade Deal views in any easy to find place.
I note my Oct 20, 2022 post hasn't aged well given that Braverman is back. However, maybe she can see the important difference between legal and illegal immigration (or has had that pointed out to her as a condition of getting her old job back given Rishi spent some of his own political capital to bring her back). A bit like Brexit and trade deals then some nuance is required.
MORE legal immigration with rWorld (if it helps get a trade deal)
LESS illegal immigration via small boats across the Channel
Feel free to quote me on that.
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 20, 2022 19:23:44 GMT
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 21, 2022 13:26:51 GMT
HuffPost piece covering Rishi's speech to CBI covering the issues that gets the headbangers so vexed:
“Under my leadership, the United Kingdom will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU laws,”
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-rejects-swiss-style-brexit-agreement-with-eu_uk_637b5bf9e4b0f04daf55032cGreat to hear as there is no need for that. 'Swiss-style' was pretty vague (I called it Swiss++ although what I see as '+' would be '-' for some people and they are 'without' elements). Anyway, we don't want and don't need 'alignment' for GB and certainly not in 'forever' sense on every sector. That was always the 'trap' of the May-Robbins backstop. Of course if EC-EU don't want 'Mutual Recognition and/or Equivalence' in certain sectors then we can look at other options - such as bilateral deals (The Netherlands likely to be the most open to that as we've already seen on other bilateral mini-deals), or just allow supply chains to adjust as per the British cheese sector that is doing very with increased domestic sales but has lost some EU sales. TBC but perhaps the 'Swiss-style' trial balloon didn't pop (see comment on main thread) and it just needed a few specific points in the '++' section clarified PS It is of course Captain Obvious what Rishi should call it. 'UK++'. We already have a bespoke deal so no need to use Swiss, Canada or any other country name when we can use our own name! Also avoids the confusion of the '++' v '--' issue as it would be some minor tweaks that are '+' in the sense of additional and mutually beneficial as part of the new Entente. The ERG or Arch-EUphiliacs might still spit the dummy but only minor tweaks are required. 'An even better deal is a bit better than the current deal and certainly better than 'no deal', the May-Robbins deal, Norway, Turkey, 'Rejoin' with/without vetoes, etc.'Or Rishi kicks the can, misses the Biden/NI 25th anniversary opportunity, and leaves it to Sir Keir. I don't have a crystal ball but I'd prefer Rishi to tie off the loose ends and hopefully the 'useful idiots' in ERG will work that one out as well and let Rishi get on with it. |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 21, 2022 19:07:18 GMT
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 26, 2022 9:09:01 GMT
One to watch now that UK is not in the EU. Depending on what happens then UK can choose how it responds a/ EC-EU start a 'tit-4-tat' trade war with US. UK stays neutral and is no longer hit by whisky/other tariffs b/ EC-EU bark but don't bite. UK can enter the subsidy war (copying US who are certainly stacking the deck in their favour but like UK are not controlled by Brussels - Rachel, as a Lexiteer, will be keen to see none of the big trading blocks are going to start a trade war over green subsidies) www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-demands-quick-fix-us-green-subsidy-law-2022-11-25/ |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 3, 2022 13:55:11 GMT
Further to my previous post then it looks like EC-EU are going to 'bottle it' (ie option b/ - good news for a Lexiteer like Rachel and her 'Green Prosperity Plan' to make, buy and sell more Green Energy in Britain; develop more Green tech in Britain; and create more high skilled/paid/taxed British jobs for British workers) EU’s free-trading Vestager warns against subsidy war with Americawww.politico.eu/article/vestager-warns-against-imitating-us-amid-buy-european-debate/Misleading title so quote Linder: "The German economy, unlike France's, is closely linked to the US market. He was referring to the US being a huge market for German automobiles...That's why Germany can't have any interest in a trade war but has to rely on economic diplomacy."www.dw.com/en/german-finance-minister-warns-of-us-trade-war/a-63975636Dare I say that was predictable. EC-EU will probably argue amongst themselves but I'm pretty sure US can decode the response to the the IRA* and whilst Biden states "there are tweaks (to "glitches" in the IRA) we can make" then I expect they'll be incredibly minor and more to do with intra-US politics (eg ensure the pork barreling is going to the right places) NB Rishi should also be paying attention. EC-EU not keen on trade wars, especially with countries to whom Germany exports a lot of cars, eh? So hold out for MRA+E deal for NIP (and rUK) ahead of the 25th Anniversary of the GFA next year. Say No, No, No to alignment and wait for EC-EU to accept that the GFA grants NI has 'special status' as part of both Unions (UK and Island or Ireland). GFA came before the NIP and is the GFA is more important than the NIP. That was always the master stroke of Frosty's 'frontstop' deal (avoiding the 'trap' of the May-Robbins 'backstop'). Very happy to say it will be simply mini/side-deals and a 'reimplementation' of the NIP - no need to mention 'cake and eat it' |
|
